scholarly journals Assessment of the climate change impacts on the water resources of the Luni region, India

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-40 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Moisture Deficit ◽  
Hydro Climatology ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on water resources at the local, regional and global scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Luni region, India, is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different scenarios allows for the estimation of uncertainty of future impacts. The projections are based on the CORDEX-South Asia framework and are bias-corrected using the DBS method before being entered into the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate predictions of runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, and applied irrigation water to soil. Overall, the high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the impact model, and as a result the spatiotemporal distribution of change is subject to the climate change scenario. In general, for all scenarios, results show a -20 to +20% change in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration, whereas more pronounced impacts are expected for runoff (-40 to +40% change). Climate change can also affect other hydro-climatic components, however, at a lower impact. Finally, the flow dynamics in the Luni River are substantially affected in terms of shape and magnitude.</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noora Veijalainen ◽  
Lauri Ahopelto ◽  
Mika Marttunen ◽  
Jaakko Jääskeläinen ◽  
Ritva Britschgi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

scholarly journals Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. McBean ◽  
H. Motiee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.

Effects of Hydrologic Model Choice and Calibration on the Portrayal of Climate Change Impacts

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 762-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo A. Mendoza ◽  
Martyn P. Clark ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
Andrew J. Newman ◽  
Michael Barlage ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Climate System Model

Abstract The assessment of climate change impacts on water resources involves several methodological decisions, including choices of global climate models (GCMs), emission scenarios, downscaling techniques, and hydrologic modeling approaches. Among these, hydrologic model structure selection and parameter calibration are particularly relevant and usually have a strong subjective component. The goal of this research is to improve understanding of the role of these decisions on the assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrologic processes. The study is conducted in three basins located in the Colorado headwaters region, using four different hydrologic model structures [PRMS, VIC, Noah LSM, and Noah LSM with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP)]. To better understand the role of parameter estimation, model performance and projected hydrologic changes (i.e., changes in the hydrology obtained from hydrologic models due to climate change) are compared before and after calibration with the University of Arizona shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm. Hydrologic changes are examined via a climate change scenario where the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) change signal is used to perturb the boundary conditions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model configured at 4-km resolution. Substantial intermodel differences (i.e., discrepancies between hydrologic models) in the portrayal of climate change impacts on water resources are demonstrated. Specifically, intermodel differences are larger than the mean signal from the CCSM–WRF climate scenario examined, even after the calibration process. Importantly, traditional single-objective calibration techniques aimed to reduce errors in runoff simulations do not necessarily improve intermodel agreement (i.e., same outputs from different hydrologic models) in projected changes of some hydrological processes such as evapotranspiration or snowpack.

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

scholarly journals Integrated water resources management approach in mitigating the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology in Gurara reservoir catchment, Northwest Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 355-361
Author(s):  
Ifie-emi Francis Oseke ◽  
Geophery Kwame Anornu ◽  
Kwaku Amaning Adjei ◽  
Martin Obada Eduvie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The strategies and actions in the management of African River Basins in a warming climate environment have been studied. Using the Gurara Reservoir Catchment in North-West Nigeria as a case study, summations were proposed using hypothetical climate scenarios considering the Global Climate Models prediction and linear trend of the data. Four (4) proposed scenarios of temperature increase (1 % and 2 %) coupled with a decrease in precipitation of (−5 % and −10 %) were combined and applied for the study area. The Water Evaluation and Planning Tool was used to model and evaluates the impact of the earth's rising temperature and declining rainfall on the hydrology and availability of water by investigating its resilience to climate change. Modelling results indicate a reduction in available water within the study area from 4.3 % to 3.5 % compared to the baseline with no climate change scenario, revealing the current water management strategy as not sustainable, uncoordinated, and resulting in overexploitation. The findings could assist in managing future water resources in the catchment by accentuating the need to put in place appropriate adaptation measures to foster resilience to climate change. Practically, it is pertinent to shape more effective policies and regulations within catchments for effective water resources management in reducing water shortage as well as achieving downstream water needs and power benefit in thefuture, while also allowing flexibility in the operation of a reservoir with the ultimate goal of adapting to climate change.

scholarly journals Estimating Sectoral Water Demand for Sindh Province of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 398-406
Author(s):  
Heman Das Lohano ◽  
Fateh Muhammad Marri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Water Demand

Water resources in Sindh province of Pakistan are under significant pressure due to increasing and conflicting water demand from municipalities for domestic users, agriculture and industries, and requirements of environmental flows. Population growth and climate change are likely to pose serious challenges to households and economic sectors that depend on water. This study estimates the present water demand from municipalities, agriculture and industries, and its future projections by the year 2050 in Sindh. The study also evaluates the impact of climate change on sectoral water demand and assesses the water requirements for the environmental flows. The results show that presently the total water demand for these sectors in Sindh is 44.06 Million Acre Feet (MAF). Agriculture is the largest consumer of water, accounting for 95.24 percent of the total water demand. Municipal water demand accounts for 2.61 percent while industrial water demand accounts for 1.88 percent. The demand for water in these sectors is expected to rise by 10 percent from 2018 to 2050. Moreover, depending on climate change scenario, the total water demand in these three sectors is likely to rise by 16 to 25 percent from 2018 to 2050. In additions, water requirements for the environmental flows have been indicated as 10 MAF in the National Water Accord of 1991. The findings of this study call for policy measures and strategies for management of water resources in Sindh.

scholarly journals Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources Within a Lake‐Affected Region Using Regional Climate Projections

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre R. Erler ◽  
Steven K. Frey ◽  
Omar Khader ◽  
Marc d'Orgeville ◽  
Young‐Jin Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

scholarly journals Multi-Scale Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes in Northern Morocco

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Milewski ◽  
Wondwosen M. Seyoum ◽  
Racha Elkadiri ◽  
Michael Durham
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
The Impact

Natural and human-induced impacts on water resources across the globe continue to negatively impact water resources. Characterizing the hydrologic sensitivity to climatic and anthropogenic changes is problematic given the lack of monitoring networks and global-scale model uncertainties. This study presents an integrated methodology combining satellite remote sensing (e.g., GRACE, TRMM), hydrologic modeling (e.g., SWAT), and climate projections (IPCC AR5), to evaluate the impact of climatic and man-made changes on groundwater and surface water resources. The approach was carried out on two scales: regional (Morocco) and watershed (Souss Basin, Morocco) to capture the recent climatic changes in precipitation and total water storage, examine current and projected impacts on total water resources (surface and groundwater), and investigate the link between climate change and groundwater resources. Simulated (1979–2014) potential renewable groundwater resources obtained from SWAT are ~4.3 × 108 m3/yr. GRACE data (2002–2016) indicates a decline in total water storage anomaly of ~0.019m/yr., while precipitation remains relatively constant through the same time period (2002–2016), suggesting human interactions as the major underlying cause of depleting groundwater reserves. Results highlight the need for further conservation of diminishing groundwater resources and a more complete understanding of the links and impacts of climate change on groundwater resources.

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