scholarly journals Optimization Assessment of Projection Methods of Climate Change for Discrepancies between North and South China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3106
Author(s):  
Yurui Lun ◽  
Liu Liu ◽  
Ruotong Wang ◽  
Guanhua Huang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Climate Change Projection ◽  
The North ◽  
North And South ◽  
Selection Of

Downscaling methods have been widely used due to the coarse and biased outputs of general circulation models (GCMs), which cannot be applied directly in regional climate change projection. Hence, appropriate selection of GCMs and downscaling methods is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. To explicitly explore the influences of multi-GCMs and different downscaling methods on climate change projection in various climate zones, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) and the Zhanghe River Basin (ZRB) were selected in this study to represent the north arid region and the south humid region in China, respectively. We first evaluated the performance of multi-GCMs derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the two regions based on in-situ measurements and the 40 year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. Subsequently, to construct appropriate climate change projection techniques, comparative analysis using two statistical downscaling methods was performed with consideration of the significant north–south meteorological discrepancies. Consequently, specific projections of future climate change for 2021–2050 under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were completed for the HRB and ZRB, including daily precipitation, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature. The results demonstrated that the score-based method with multiple criteria for performance evaluation of multiple GCMs more accurately captured the spatio-temporal characteristics of the regional climate. The two statistical downscaling methods showed respective advantages in arid and humid regions. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) showed more accurate prediction capacities for air temperature in the arid-climate HRB, whereas model output statistics (MOS) better captured the probability distribution of precipitation in the ZRB, which is characterized by a humid climate. According to the results obtained in this study, the selection of appropriate GCMs and downscaling methods for specific climate zones with different meteorological features significantly impact regional climate change projection. The statistical downscaling models developed and recommended for the north and south of China in this study provide scientific reference for sustainable water resource management subject to climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

2013 ◽  
Vol 120 (4) ◽  
pp. 965-975 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. O. Mearns ◽  
S. Sain ◽  
L. R. Leung ◽  
M. S. Bukovsky ◽  
S. McGinnis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North American ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Change Assessment ◽  
Assessment Program ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

scholarly journals EFFECT OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON RUNOFF FROM THE LAKE ONEGO WATERSHED

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
L. E. Nazarova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

As a result of the statistical analysis of the meteorological and water balance data for Onego Lake watershed over the period 1950-2000, noticeable changes were detected. It was found that time series of annual air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration over 50-year period contains positive linear trends, but no change in total streamflow to the lake has so far followed. Potential changes in the regional climate and hydrological regime for the period 2000-2050 were estimated using the results of numerical modeling with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model for two scenarios of the global climate change. The estimation of these data shows that a general tendency to increase of annual air temperature and precipitation will remain in the new climate Mean annual precipitation will increase about 30-50 mm, mean average annual air temperature for the next 50-years period will rise from 1.6 up to 2.7-3.0 °C. Our estimation shows that for both scenarios all water balance parameters, excluding river runoff, will increase.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEFORESTATION: Implications for the Maya collapse

2003 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justine M. Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ninth Century ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Entire Region ◽  
The North ◽  
Maya Collapse ◽  
Systems Failure

During the ninth century, many sites in the Southern Maya Lowlands were abandoned as elite and commoners felt the effects of the Classic-period Maya collapse. At the same time, sites to the north and east continued to flourish. Recent climatic data indicate that, at this time, much of the Maya area experienced a significant drought. However, this drought does not appear to have uniformly affected the entire region; instead, climate appears to have acted as a mosaic, shifting through time and space. It is hypothesized that one of the key factors responsible for these variable cultural trajectories is localized and regional climate change brought about through irregular anthropogenic deforestation. These changes, when coupled with an out-of-balance cultural system, may have served as a catalyst that sent some parts of the Maya world down the path to systems failure, while other zones were able—at least, temporarily—to adjust and continue.

scholarly journals Potential Value of Expert Elicitation for Determining Differential Credibility of Regional Climate Change Simulations: An Exercise with the NARCCAP co-PIs for the Southwest Monsoon Region of North America

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda O. Mearns ◽  
Melissa S. Bukovsky ◽  
Vanessa J. Schweizer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Model Quality ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract In this brief article, we report the initial results of an expert elicitation with the co-PIs (regional climate modelers) of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program regarding their evaluation of the relative quality of regional climate model simulations focusing on the subregion dominated by the North American monsoon (NAM). We assumed that an expert elicitation framework might reveal interesting beliefs and understanding that would be different from what would be obtained from calculating quantitative metrics associated with model quality. The simulations considered were of six regional climate models (RCMs) that used NCEP Reanalysis 2 as boundary conditions for the years 1980–2004. The domain covers most of North America and adjacent oceans. The seven participating regional modelers were asked to complete surveys on their background beliefs about model credibility and their judgments regarding the quality of the six models based on a series of plots of variables related to the NAM (e.g., temperature, winds, humidity, moisture flux, precipitation). The specific RCMs were not identified. We also compared the results of the expert elicitation with those obtained from using a series of metrics developed to evaluate a European collection of climate model simulations. The results proved to be quite different in the two cases. The results of this exercise proved very enlightening regarding regional modelers’ perceptions of model quality and their beliefs about how this information should or should not be used. Based on these pilot study results, we believe a more complete study is warranted.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document