scholarly journals Incorporating Uncertainty of the System Behavior in Flood Risk Assessment—Sava River Case Study

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2676
Author(s):  
Toni Kekez ◽  
Snježana Knezić ◽  
Roko Andričević
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Event ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Safe Area ◽  
Sava River ◽  
Different Sources

This paper proposes a framework for evaluation of the sources of uncertainty that can disrupt the flood emergency response process. During the flood response, flood emergency managers usually choose between several decision options under limited available lead-time, but they are often compelled with different sources of uncertainty. These sources can significantly affect the quality of decisions related to adequate response and rapid recovery of the affected system. The proposed framework considers efficient identification, integration, and quantification of system uncertainties related to the flood risk. Uncertainty analysis is performed from a decision-maker’s perspective and focused on the time period near and during the flood event. The major scope of proposed framework is to recognize and characterize sources of uncertainty which can potentially appear within the behavior of the observed system. Using a Bayesian network approach, a model is developed capable for quantification of different sources uncertainty in respect to their particular type. The proposed approach is validated on the Sava River case study, in the area of the city of Slavonski Brod, following the destructive 2014 flood event. The results indicate that, despite improvements of structural measures, the weir failure can still cause flooding of the approximately 1 km2 of otherwise safe area, resulting in the increased flood risk.

Visualizing Composite Knowledge in Emergency Responses using Spatial Hypertext

2013 ◽  
pp. 182-195
Author(s):  
José H. Canós ◽  
M. Carmen Penadés ◽  
Carlos Solís ◽  
Marcos R.S. Borges ◽  
Adriana S. Vivacqua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Contextual Information ◽  
Contextual Knowledge ◽  
Formal Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Framework ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Underground Transportation ◽  
The Right ◽  
Different Sources

Having the right information at the right time is crucial to make decisions during emergency response. To fulfill this requirement, emergency management systems must provide emergency managers with knowledge management and visualization tools. The goal is twofold: on one hand, to organize knowledge coming from different sources, mainly the emergency response plans (the formal knowledge) and the information extracted from the emergency development (the contextual knowledge), and on the other hand, to enable effective access to information. Formal and contextual knowledge sets are mostly disjoint; however, there are cases in which a formal knowledge piece may be updated with some contextual information, constituting composite knowledge. In this paper, the authors extend a knowledge framework with the notion of composite knowledge, and use spatial hypertext to visualize this type of knowledge. The authors illustrate the proposal with a case study on accessing to information during an emergency response in an underground transportation system.

Uncertainty quantification and attribution in flood risk assessment using Global Flood Models: an application to the river Rhine basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Sarailidis ◽  
Francesca Pianosi ◽  
Thorsten Wagener ◽  
Kirsty Styles ◽  
Stephen Hutchings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
River Rhine ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Daunting Task ◽  
Flood Losses ◽  
Different Sources

<p>Floods are extreme hydro-meteorological hazards that pose significant risks to the economy and society. Reducing the risk associated with floods and better adapting to them is a daunting task because flood risk dynamics are influenced by different factors. Flood risk is usually defined as the product of three components: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Global Flood Risk Models (GFRM) represent the underlying physical hazard, the exposure of people, properties or other assets to the hazard, and the losses that may occur following a flood event.  Consequently, they are used by governmental agencies, risk reduction organisations, global investors and the (re)insurance industry to help manage the societal and financial risks associated with floods. GFRMs are subject to many sources of uncertainty, including uncertainty in processes representation, model parameters and input data; however, the relative importance of these different sources is poorly understood. Currently, no evidence exists on which uncertain input factor mostly control the final uncertainty in predicted losses in different places and circumstances. In this project, we use JBA’s (a leading flood risk modelling company) Global Flood Model and Open Exposure Data (OED) to develop an appropriate methodological approach to analyse the sensitivity of loss predictions in a structured way. This is particularly challenging as input uncertainties exhibit complex spatially distributed and spatially-structured (correlated) patterns. We apply the methodology to the Rhine river basin, covering regions with different physical and socio-economic characteristics. We pursue the following objectives; (1) Identify and quantify the various sources of uncertainty e.g. associated to rainfall data, extraction of flood events sets, defence database, vulnerability curves, exposure portfolios (2) Analyse their relative importance on flood losses predictions across places along the river (3) Understand which of them are most important at each place. We aim to produce scientifically robust evidence about the importance of different sources of uncertainty across places with different climate, hydrology and socio-economic characteristics and try to address questions related to exposure and vulnerability dynamics, flood losses modelling and adaptation strategies. Such evidence base will help prioritise efforts for uncertainty reduction of the case study model, as well as other flood risk models used by (re)insurers and government agencies, ultimately contributing to more informed decisions for flood risk mitigation.</p>

Submarine landslide catalogue onshore/offshore harmonization: Spain as a case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 477 (1) ◽  
pp. 497-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo León ◽  
Juan Carlos García-Davalillo ◽  
David Casas ◽  
Carmen Julia Giménez-Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Information ◽  
Submarine Landslide ◽  
Submarine Landslides ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Geological Timescale ◽  
Different Sources

AbstractThis paper presents a Geographic Information System catalogue of the submarine landslides of the Spanish continental margin and describes the problems associated with harmonizing the catalogue with its onshore homologue. The data model structure is described to explain how to apply the rules and specifications following the Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe (INSPIRE). Because of the singularities of the marine environment compared with those of land, integrating the submarine landslide catalogues into INSPIRE specifications requires the following procedures: (1) simplification of the list of values of state of activity into three categories: active, dormant and relict; and (2) inclusion of debris avalanches and turbidites as new typologies of landslides. This paper discusses the problems associated with harmonizing different data types and units from different sources, such as the thickness (metres and seismic two travel time) or the age of the event, and a numeric code for the geological timescale is proposed to harmonize these data. We establish whether an item is required based on the reliability of the landslide event, which is categorized by three levels (high–middle–low) depending on the precision of the data source, methodology used and quality of the publication where the data are obtained.

scholarly journals Toward Management of Uncertainty in Self-Adaptive Software Systems: IoT Case Study

Computers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Shereen Ismail ◽  
Kruti Shah ◽  
Hassan Reza ◽  
Ronald Marsh ◽  
Emanuel Grant
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Adaptive Software ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Self Adaptation ◽  
System Requirements ◽  
High Level ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Self Adaptive

Adaptivity is the ability of the system to change its behavior whenever it does not achieve the system requirements. Self-adaptive software systems (SASS) are considered a milestone in software development in many modern complex scientific and engineering fields. Employing self-adaptation into a system can accomplish better functionality or performance; however, it may lead to unexpected system behavior and consequently to uncertainty. The uncertainty that results from using SASS needs to be tackled from different perspectives. The Internet of Things (IoT) that utilizes the attributes of SASS presents great development opportunities. Because IoT is a relatively new domain, it carries a high level of uncertainty. The goal of this work is to highlight more details about self-adaptivity in software systems, describe all possible sources of uncertainty, and illustrate its effect on the ability of the system to fulfill its objectives. We provide a survey of state-of-the-art approaches coping with uncertainty in SASS and discuss their performance. We classify the different sources of uncertainty based on their location and nature in SASS. Moreover, we present IoT as a case study to define uncertainty at different layers of the IoT stack. We use this case study to identify the sources of uncertainty, categorize the sources according to IoT stack layers, demonstrate the effect of uncertainty on the ability of the system to fulfill its objectives, and discuss the state-of-the-art approaches to mitigate the sources of uncertainty. We conclude with a set of challenges that provide a guide for future study.

scholarly journals Flood risk in past and future: A case study for the Pawtuxet River's record‐breaking March 2010 flood event

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soroush Kouhi ◽  
M. Reza Hashemi ◽  
Rozita Kian ◽  
Malcolm Spaulding ◽  
Matthew Lewis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Event

Visualizing Composite Knowledge in Emergency Responses using Spatial Hypertext

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 52-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
José H. Canós ◽  
M. Carmen Penadés ◽  
Carlos Solís ◽  
Marcos R.S. Borges ◽  
Adriana S. Vivacqua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Contextual Information ◽  
Contextual Knowledge ◽  
Formal Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Framework ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Underground Transportation ◽  
The Right ◽  
Different Sources

Having the right information at the right time is crucial to make decisions during emergency response. To fulfill this requirement, emergency management systems must provide emergency managers with knowledge management and visualization tools. The goal is twofold: on one hand, to organize knowledge coming from different sources, mainly the emergency response plans (the formal knowledge) and the information extracted from the emergency development (the contextual knowledge), and on the other hand, to enable effective access to information. Formal and contextual knowledge sets are mostly disjoint; however, there are cases in which a formal knowledge piece may be updated with some contextual information, constituting composite knowledge. In this paper, the authors extend a knowledge framework with the notion of composite knowledge, and use spatial hypertext to visualize this type of knowledge. The authors illustrate the proposal with a case study on accessing to information during an emergency response in an underground transportation system.

Misophonia: An Evidence-Based Case Report

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 685-690
Author(s):  
C. S. Vanaja ◽  
Miriam Soni Abigail
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Case Report ◽  
Case History ◽  
Pure Tone ◽  
Physiological Responses ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Management Option ◽  
Pure Tone Audiogram

Purpose Misophonia is a sound tolerance disorder condition in certain sounds that trigger intense emotional or physiological responses. While some persons may experience misophonia, a few patients suffer from misophonia. However, there is a dearth of literature on audiological assessment and management of persons with misophonia. The purpose of this report is to discuss the assessment of misophonia and highlight the management option that helped a patient with misophonia. Method A case study of a 26-year-old woman with the complaint of decreased tolerance to specific sounds affecting quality of life is reported. Audiological assessment differentiated misophonia from hyperacusis. Management included retraining counseling as well as desensitization and habituation therapy based on the principles described by P. J. Jastreboff and Jastreboff (2014). A misophonia questionnaire was administered at regular intervals to monitor the effectiveness of therapy. Results A detailed case history and audiological evaluations including pure-tone audiogram and Johnson Hyperacusis Index revealed the presence of misophonia. The patient benefitted from intervention, and the scores of the misophonia questionnaire indicated a decrease in the severity of the problem. Conclusions It is important to differentially diagnose misophonia and hyperacusis in persons with sound tolerance disorders. Retraining counseling as well as desensitization and habituation therapy can help patients who suffer from misophonia.

Chronic Refractory Cough: A Case Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-62
Author(s):  
Anna Maria Siciliano
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Adult Female ◽  
Chronic Cough ◽  
Treatment Regime ◽  
Speech Language Pathology ◽  
Old Adult ◽  
Language Pathology

This paper presents a successful behavioral case study in treatment of chronic refractory cough in a 60-year-old adult female. The efficacy for speech-language pathology treating chronic cough is discussed along with description of treatment regime. Discussion focuses on therapy approaches used and the patient's report of changes in quality of life and frequency, duration, and severity reduction of her cough after treatment.

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