scholarly journals Assessing the Performance of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Future Precipitation Change in the Tibetan Plateau

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Jia ◽  
Yunfeng Ruan ◽  
Yanzhao Yang ◽  
Chao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Spatial Distributions ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Far Future

In this study, the performance of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) in simulating precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was assessed using data from 1961 to 2005 by an improved score-based method, which adopts multiple criteria to achieve a comprehensive evaluation. The future precipitation change was also estimated based on the Delta method by selecting the submultiple model ensemble (SMME) in the near-term (2006–2050) and far future (2051–2095) periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that most GCMs can reasonably simulate the precipitation pattern of an annual cycle; however, all GCMs overestimated the precipitation over TP, especially in spring and summer. The GCMs generally provide good simulations of the temporal characteristics of precipitation, while they did not perform as well in reproducing its spatial distributions. Different assessment criteria lead to inconsistent results; however, the improved rank score method, which adopts multiple criteria, provided a robust assessment of GCMs performance. The future annual precipitation was projected to increase by ~6% in the near-term with respect to the period 1961–2005, whereas increases of 12.3% and 16.7% are expected in the far future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Similar spatial distributions of future precipitation changes can be seen in the near-term and far future periods under the two scenarios, and indicate that the most predominant increases occurred in the north of TP. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information on climate change, and for water resources and agricultural management in TP.

Extending the paleoglaciological record of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau by combining geochronological and high-resolution remote sensing techniques

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arjen P. Stroeven ◽  
Ramona A.A. Schneider ◽  
Robin Blomdin ◽  
Natacha Gribenski ◽  
Marc W. Caffee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Luminescence Dating ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Exposure Dating ◽  
Southeastern Margin ◽  
Downstream Communities

<p>Paleoglaciological data is a crucial source of information towards insightful paleoclimate reconstructions by providing vital boundary conditions for regional and global climate models. In this context, the Third Pole Environment is considered a key region because it is highly sensitive to global climate change and its many glaciers constitute a diminishing but critical supply of freshwater to downstream communities in SE Asia. Despite its importance, extents of past glaciation on the Tibetan Plateau remain poorly documented or controversial largely because of the lack of well define glacial chronostratigraphies and reconstructions of former glacier extent. This study contributes to a better documentation of the extent and improved resolution of the timing of past glaciations on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. We deploy a high-resolution TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (12 m resolution) to produce maps of glacial and proglacial fluvial landforms in unprecedented detail. Geomorphological and sedimentological field observations complement the mapping while cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating of quartz samples from boulders on end moraines detail the timing of local glacier expansion. Additionally, samples for optically stimulated luminescence dating were taken from extensive and distinct terraces located in pull-apart basins downstream of the end moraines to determine their formation time. We compare this new dataset with new and published electron spin resonance ages from terraces. Temporal coherence between the different chronometers strengthens the geochronological record while divergence highlights limitations in the applicability of the chronometers to glacial research or in our conceptual understanding of landscape changes in tectonic regions. Results highlight our current understanding of paleoglaciation, landscape development, and paleoclimate on the SE Tibetan Plateau.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Global Climate Models in the CMIP5 over the Tibetan Plateau

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3187-3208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengge Su ◽  
Xiaolan Duan ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
Zhenchun Hao ◽  
Lan Cuo
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Near Term

Abstract The performance of 24 GCMs available in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) by comparing the model outputs with ground observations for the period 1961–2005. The twenty-first century trends of precipitation and temperature based on the GCMs’ projections over the TP are also analyzed. The results suggest that for temperature most GCMs reasonably capture the climatological patterns and spatial variations of the observed climate. However, the majority of the models have cold biases, with a mean underestimation of 1.1°–2.5°C for the months December–May, and less than 1°C for June–October. For precipitation, the simulations of all models overestimate the observations in climatological annual means by 62.0%–183.0%, and only half of the 24 GCMs are able to reproduce the observed seasonal pattern, which demonstrates a critical need to improve precipitation-related processes in these models. All models produce a warming trend in the twenty-first century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario; in contrast, the rcp2.6 scenario predicts a lower average warming rate for the near term, and a small cooling trend in the long-term period with the decreasing radiative forcing. In the near term, the projected precipitation change is about 3.2% higher than the 1961–2005 annual mean, whereas in the long term the precipitation is projected to increase 6.0% under rcp2.6 and 12.0% under the rcp8.5 scenario. Relative to the 1961–2005 mean, the annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.2°–1.3°C in the short term; the warmings under the rcp2.6 and rcp8.5 scenarios are 1.8° and 4.1°C, respectively, for the long term.

Evaluation of global climate models for downscaling applications centred over the Tibetan Plateau

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwei Xu ◽  
Yanhong Gao ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
Linhong Xiao ◽  
Tinghai Ou
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau

Effects of the horizontal resolution of climate models on the simulation of extreme hourly precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Bao ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
Guoxiong Wu ◽  
Jinxiao Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Standard Resolution ◽  
Surrounding Areas

<p>Extreme precipitation events, represented by the extreme hourly precipitation (EHP), often occur in the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas (TPS) as a result of the complex topography and unique geographical location of this region and can lead to large losses of human life. Previous studies have shown that the performance of extreme precipitation simulations can be improved by increasing the resolution of the model, although the mechanisms are not yet not clear. In this study, we firstly compared the most recent high-quality satellite precipitation product  with station data from Nepal, which is located on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that the GPM dataset can reproduce extreme precipitation well and we therefore used these data as a benchmark for climate models of the TPS. We then evaluated the fidelity of global climate models in the representation of the boreal summer EHP in the TPS using datasets from the CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). We used four global climate models with standard (about 100 km) and enhanced (up to 25 km) resolution configurations to simulate the EHP. The models with a standard resolution largely underestimated the intensity of EHP, especially over the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The EHP can reach up to 50 mm h<sup>−1</sup>in the TPS, whereas the maximum simulated EHP was <35 mm h<sup>−1</sup> for all the standard resolution models. The mean intensity of EHP is about 5.06 mm h<sup>−1</sup> in the GPM satellite products, whereas it was <3 mm h<sup>−1</sup> in standard resolution models. The skill of the simulation of EHP is significantly improved at increased horizontal resolutions. The high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of 25 km can reproduce the geographical distribution of the intensity of EHP in the TPS. The intensity–frequency distribution of EHP also resembles that from GPM products, showing the same features up to 50 mm h<sup>−1</sup>, although it slightly overestimates heavy precipitation events. Finally, we propose possible physical linkages between the simulation of EHP and the impacts of the resolution of the model and physical processes. Phenomena over the Indian Ocean at different timescales and the diurnal variation of precipitation in the TPS are used to propose possible physical linkages as they may play an important part in the simulation of EHP in the TPS. Further analysis shows that an increase in the horizontal resolution helps to accurately reproduce the features of water vapor transport on days with extreme precipitation, the northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation over the Indian and western Pacific Ocean monsoon regions in the boreal summer, the intensity and number of tropical cyclones over the southern Asian monsoon regions, and the peak time and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. This increase in accuracy contributes to the improvements in the simulation of EHP in the TPS. This study suggests improvements to increase the horizontal resolution of the GCMs and lay a solid foundation for the accurate reproduction and prediction of EHP in the TPS.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenchun Hao ◽  
Qin Ju ◽  
Weijuan Jiang ◽  
Changjun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ipcc Ar4

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least.

scholarly journals Mean precipitation change from a deepening troposphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (45) ◽  
pp. 11465-11470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadir Jeevanjee ◽  
David M. Romps
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Simple Theory ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Global Mean

Global climate models robustly predict that global mean precipitation should increase at roughly 2–3%K−1, but the origin of these values is not well understood. Here we develop a simple theory to help explain these values. This theory combines the well-known radiative constraint on precipitation, which says that condensation heating from precipitation is balanced by the net radiative cooling of the free troposphere, with an invariance of radiative cooling profiles when expressed in temperature coordinates. These two constraints yield a picture in which mean precipitation is controlled primarily by the depth of the troposphere, when measured in temperature coordinates. We develop this theory in idealized simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium and also demonstrate its applicability to global climate models.

scholarly journals Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Obaidullah Salehie ◽  
Mohammed Magdy Hamed ◽  
Tarmizi bin Ismail ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future ◽  
Amu Darya River

Abstract Droughts significantly affect socioeconomic and the environment primarily by decreasing the water availability of a region. This study aims to assess the changes in drought characteristics in Central Asia's transboundary Amu Darya river basin for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx and Tmn) simulations of 19 global climate models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to select the best models to prepare the multimodel ensemble (MME). The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to estimate droughts for multiple timescales from Pr and potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from Tmx and Tmn. The changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of droughts for different severities and timescales were evaluated for the two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060-2099, compared to the base period of 1975-2014. The study revealed four GCMs, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, as most suitable for projections of droughts in the study area. The multimodel ensemble (MME) mean of the selected GCMs showed a decrease in Pr by -3 to 12% in the near future and a change in the range of 3 to -9% in the far future in most parts of the basin for different SSPs. The PET showed almost no change in most parts of the basin in the near future and an increase in the range of 10 to 70% in the far future. The change (%) in projected drought occurrence showed to noticeably decrease in the near future, particularly for moderate droughts by up to ≤-50% for SSP5-8.5 and an increase in the far future by up to ≥30% for SSP3-7.0. The increase in all severities of droughts was projected mostly in the center and northwest of the basin. Overall, the results showed a drought shift from the east to the northwest of the basin in the future.

scholarly journals Comparison of Statistical and Dynamic Downscaling Techniques in Generating High-Resolution Temperatures in China from CMIP5 GCMs

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
YinLong Xu ◽  
ChunChun Meng ◽  
XinHua Li ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling

AbstractIn aiming for better access to climate change information and for providing climate service, it is important to obtain reliable high-resolution temperature simulations. Systematic comparisons are still deficient between statistical and dynamic downscaling techniques because of their inherent unavoidable uncertainties. In this paper, 20 global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model [Providing Regional Climates to Impact Studies (PRECIS)] are employed to evaluate their capabilities in reproducing average trends of mean temperature (Tm), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and extreme events represented by frost days (FD) and heat-wave days (HD) across China. It is shown generally that bias of temperatures from GCMs relative to observations is over ±1°C across more than one-half of mainland China. PRECIS demonstrates better representation of temperatures (except for HD) relative to GCMs. There is relatively better performance in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, south Yangzi River, and South China, whereas estimation is not as good in Xinjiang, the eastern part of northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau. Bias-correction spatial disaggregation is used to downscale GCMs outputs, and bias correction is applied for PRECIS outputs, which demonstrate better improvement to a bias within ±0.2°C for Tm, Tmax, Tmin, and DTR and ±2 days for FD and HD. Furthermore, such improvement is also verified by the evidence of increased spatial correlation coefficient and symmetrical uncertainty, decreased root-mean-square error, and lower standard deviation for reproductions. It is seen from comprehensive ranking metrics that different downscaled models show the most improvement across different climatic regions, implying that optional ensembles of models should be adopted to provide sufficient high-quality climate information.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences of Temporal and Spatial Drought Variation in the Andean High Mountain Basin

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Zhiña ◽  
Martín Montenegro ◽  
Lisseth Montalván ◽  
Daniel Mendoza ◽  
Juan Contreras ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Climate change threatens the hydrological equilibrium with severe consequences for living beings. In that respect, considerable differences in drought features are expected, especially for mountain-Andean regions, which seem to be prone to climate change. Therefore, an urgent need for evaluation of such climate conditions arises; especially the effects at catchment scales, due to its implications over the hydrological services. However, to study future climate impacts at the catchment scale, the use of dynamically downscaled data in developing countries is a luxury due to the computational constraints. This study performed spatiotemporal future long-term projections of droughts in the upper part of the Paute River basin, located in the southern Andes of Ecuador. Using 10 km dynamically downscaled data from four global climate models, the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) index was used for drought characterization in the base period (1981–2005) and future period (2011–2070) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of CMIP5 project. Fitting a generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution, the change ratio of the magnitude, duration, and severity between the future and present was evaluated for return periods 10, 50, and 100 years. The results show that magnitude and duration dramatically decrease in the near future for the climate scenarios under analysis; these features presented a declining effect from the near to the far future. Additionally, the severity shows a general increment with respect to the base period, which is intensified with longer return periods; however, the severity shows a decrement for specific areas in the far future of RCP 4.5 and near future of RCP 8.5. This research adds knowledge to the evaluation of droughts in complex terrain in tropical regions, where the representation of convection is the main limitation of global climate models (GCMs). The results provide useful information for decision-makers supporting mitigating measures in future decades.

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