scholarly journals Developing a Parametric Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Complex Infrastructure Projects: A Comparative Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11305
Author(s):  
Mahir Msawil ◽  
Faris Elghaish ◽  
Krisanthi Seneviratne ◽  
Stephen McIlwaine

Forecasting the cash flow for infrastructure projects has not received much attention in the existing models. Moreover, disregarding the cost flow behaviour and proposing models that entail a relatively high dimensionality of inputs have been the main drawbacks of the existing models. This study proposes a heuristic cash flow forecasting (CFF) model for infrastructure projects, and it explores the underlying behaviour of the cost flow. The proposed model was validated by adopting a case study approach,the actual cost flow datasets were mined from a verified data system. The results invalidated the employment of a dominant heuristic rule with regard to a cost-flow-time relationship in infrastructure projects. On the other hand, a mathematical parameter-based comparison between the trends analysed from previous studies revealed that the cost flows of infrastructure projects procured through a design-bid-build (D-B-B) route behaved in a similar manner to building projects procured through a construction management route. This research contributes to the body of knowledge providing a method to enable infrastructure contractors to accurately forecast the required working capital through adding a new dimension for project classification by coining the term “the quaternary flow percentage”. In addition, this study indicates the importance of identifying the impact of root risks on the individual cost flow components rather than on the aggregated cost flow, which is a recommendation for future research.

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Mapplebeck ◽  
Jo Ramsden ◽  
Mark Lowton ◽  
Sammy Short ◽  
Flora Burn

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to outline the qualitative evaluation of a training package delivered to offender managers (OMs) working to support the implementation of the national Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) pathway and to examine qualitative changes in the way participants approach case material pre- and post-training. Design/methodology/approach In total, 21 pre- and 21 post-training responses to a case vignette were recorded and used in the analysis. OMs were asked what they would like to know more about and what would they focus on with the individual in the vignette. The responses were matched and the vignettes pre- and post-training were identical except for the name of the (fictional) offender. Findings The responses were subjected to a thematic analysis and, whilst themes were similar both between questions and within each question over time, post-training responses focussed more on the offender’s relationship with the OM and showed a greater appreciation for the relevance of internal motivations (not just what but why). This tendency was less evident in all responses regarding risk/offending. Originality/value The OPD pathway is focussed on learning. The work is innovative and this paper adds to the body of early evidence which will hopefully inform future developments. In particular, the importance of involvement of probation stakeholders in the design and delivery of training is highlighted. In addition, it is expected that future research will focus on the impact of continued supervision for the participants in this study and, as such, this paper forms the beginning of a process of evaluating how and when various workforce development interventions are effective.


2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-117
Author(s):  
Dennis Collentine ◽  
Holger Johnsson

Current international agreements call for a significant reduction of nitrogen loads to the Baltic Sea. New measures to reduce nitrogen loads from the agricultural sector and an increased focus on cost efficiency will be needed to meet reduction targets. For policy design and evaluation it is important to understand the impact of weather on the efficiency of abatement measures. One new proposed policy is the use of crop permits based on weather normalized average leaching. This paper describes the use of the Spearman method to determine the efficiency of this policy with annual weather variation. The conclusion is that the values of the Spearman correlation coefficients in the study indicate that using average leaching for the individual crops on specific soil types for calculating crop permit requirements is an efficient policy. The Spearman method is demonstrated to be a simple useful tool for evaluating the impact of weather and is recommended for use in new studies.


Author(s):  
Wan Nur Syahida Wan Ismail ◽  
Mohd Zulkifli Mokhtar ◽  
Azwadi Ali ◽  
Mohd Shaari Abdul Rahman

Nowadays, competition is everywhere in the business environment. The survival of Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) depend on their ability to take full advantage of the resources available. Prior research had identified that IT is an important resource to the success of the firms. However, despite the common consensus that IT influences firm’s performance, results of previous studies on the effect of IT resources on firm’s performance are often inconsistent. Given these inconsistent results, it is unclear whether any direct effect exists between IT resources in organizations and their firm’s performance. For that reason, several authors highlighted the need for more research to investigate the impact of IT adoption on the firm’s performance. In response to this, this conceptual paper attempts to analyze relevant literatures on whether IT investment would help firms gain better performance. Understanding whether and how IT has affected firm’s performance is an important research issue as it allows the firms to know the value of IT investment and whether such innovation is worth to be adopted. Grounding in RBV theory, this study concluded that the combination of IT assets and IT capabilities (IT infrastructure) provides competitive advantage to the firm. This study also suggested that SMEs that adopt IT would perform better than those that do not adopt IT. This conceptual analysis is hoped to consolidate the body of knowledge in the area and significant to the researchers as it directs to the hypotheses development for future research.


Author(s):  
Jessica M. Brooks ◽  
Kanako Iwanaga ◽  
Fong Chan

Arthritis is ranked among the top causes of disability in the United States and worldwide. Despite recent improvements in medications and medical treatment, there is no known cure for arthritis. Providing evidence-based psychoeducation and counseling services to people with arthritis lessens the impact of pain-related symptoms and disability on the individual and society. The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the most common arthritic conditions, co-occurring physical conditions, and psychosocial factors associated with arthritis. Barriers to self-management and existing self-management programs are also discussed along with the current state of scientific evidence. The chapter concludes with some questions for future research.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 695-702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Morency-Laflamme ◽  
Theodore McLauchlin

Abstract Does ethnic stacking in the armed forces help prevent military defection? Recent research, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, suggests so; by favoring in-groups, regimes can keep in-group soldiers loyal. In-group loyalty comes at the cost of antagonizing members of out-groups, but many regimes gladly run that risk. In this research note, we provide the first large-scale evidence on the impact of ethnic stacking on the incidence of military defection during uprisings from below, using data on fifty-seven popular uprisings in Africa since formal independence. We find clear evidence for the downside: ethnic stacking is associated with more frequent defection if out-group members are still dominant in the armed forces. We find more limited support for the hypothesized payoff. Ethnic stacking may reduce the risk of defection, but only in regimes without a recent history of coup attempts. Future research should therefore trace the solidification of ethnic stacking over time.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-148
Author(s):  
Andrew Dillon ◽  
Ram Fishman

Hydrological investments, particularly irrigation dams, have multiple potential benefits for economic development. Dams also have financial, environmental, and distributional impacts that can affect their benefits and costs. This article reviews the evidence on the impact of dams on economic development, focusing on the levels and variability of agricultural productivity, and its effect on poverty, health, electricity generation, and flood control. We also review the evidence on irrigation efficiency and collective action of dam maintenance. Throughout the discussion, we highlight the empirical challenges that restrict the body of causally interpretable impact estimates and areas in which the evidence is particularly thin. We conclude with a discussion of emerging issues pertaining to the long-term sustainability of dams’ impacts and suggest directions for future research.


Author(s):  
Nicole B. Ellison

This chapter examines the state of the art in telework research. The author reviews the most central scholarly literature examining the phenomenon of telework (also called home-based work or telecommuting) and develops a framework for organizing this body of work. She organizes previous research on telework into six major thematic concerns relating to the definition, measurement, and scope of telework; management of teleworkers; travel-related impacts of telework; organizational culture and employee isolation; boundaries between “home” and “work” and the impact of telework on the individual and the family. Areas for future research are suggested.


Author(s):  
Paul Allatson

The second issue of PORTAL Journal of Multidisciplinary International Studies for 2006 features a special selection of essays grouped under the title ‘Women in Asia’ and guest-edited by Devleena Ghosh and Barbara Leigh, both from the University of Technology Sydney. The essays in this special issue had their first incarnations at the Eighth Women in Asia Conference, ‘Shadow Lines’, organised by the Women’s Caucus of the Asian Studies Association of Australia and the University of Technology Sydney (convened by Ghosh and Leigh), and held at the University of Technology Sydney from 26 to the 28 September 2005. Aiming self-consciously and tacitly to toy with, and dispute, the historical and discursive valencies accruing to the key, twined terms ‘women’ and ‘Asia’, the ten essays grouped here combine to form a rich repository of contemporary research about the status of women in many parts of that vast, arguably incoherent, geocultural space called Asia. All of the contributing authors thus ‘attempt to unsettle discourses about limits,’ to cite from co-editor Devleena Ghosh’s opening paper. That attempt is far from straightforward, as Ghosh elaborates: ‘That lines, borders and boundaries exist, whether of prejudice, politics, economics, or culture, is undeniable. But how do we analyse these issues without ossifying them, creating implacable alterities that refuse the liminal spaces that people occupy?’ Multivalent solutions are called for, Ghosh suggests, and these are to be found not simply in ‘counter-politics and interventions’, but also through the excavation and recognition of multiple subjectivities from/in ‘a thousand plateaus, [and] felt and experienced through the body, historical landscapes, domestic spaces, through performance as well as through the realm of the imaginary, in the impact of ideals and the weight of history’. In addition to the special section on ‘Women in Asia’, this edition of PORTAL contains two essays in its general academic section. François Provenzano’s ‘Francophonie et études francophones: considérations historiques et métacritiques sur quelques concepts majeurs’ offers a sustained meditation and critique of the discourse of Francophonic unity, and suggests a range of possible critical directions for future research into the study of French-speaking zones, peoples and cultures. Barbara Elizabeth Hanna and Juliana de Nooy’s ‘The Seduction of Sarah: Travel Memoirs and Intercultural Learning’, focuses on a big-selling memoir that was also something of a media-sensation on its publication in Australia in 2002, expatriate Australian journalist Sarah Turnbull’s account of her ambivalent ‘new life’ in Paris, France, after her marriage to a local: Almost French: A New Life in Paris. Interested in Turnbull’s autobiography as a potentially useful and productive classroom text for demonstrating, and enabling discussion of, intercultural difference, the authors’ rich analysis demonstrates that such texts present a host of problems to the teacher keen to work with students’ self-critical capacities to locate themselves in international and transcultural frameworks. We are delighted, as well, to present three cultural works in this issue: Katherine Elizabeth Clay’s evocative ‘comic’ narrative of study abroad, ‘From Penrith to Paris,’ itself a lively visual-textual antidote to Turnbull’s ambivalently romanticized view of (not-quite)-belonging in Paris (as discussed by Hanna and de Nooy in this issue); a typically idiosyncratic satire about the current German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, from Anthony Stephens, expertly deploying an ancient Celtic narrative verse form; and California-based Chicana writer Susana Chávez-Silverman’s code-switching chronicle/crónica, ‘Oda a la ambigüedad Crónica,’ a beautifully concise exploration of loss and the sensory regime of memorialisation. Paul Allatson, Chair, PORTAL Editorial Commitee


2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 658-681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardus J. M. Lucas ◽  
Joris Knoben ◽  
Marius T. H. Meeus

In this paper, we study to what extent inconsistent feedback signals about performance affect firm adaptive behavior in terms of changes made to research-and-development (R&D) investments. We argue that inconsistency in performance feedback—based on discrepancies between two distinct performance signals—affects the degree to which such investments will be changed. Our aim is to show that accounting for inconsistent performance feedback is necessary as predictions for the direction of change in R&D investments based on the individual performance feedback signals are contradictory. Furthermore, we contribute by proposing a holistic consideration mechanism as an alternative to the selective attention mechanism previously applied to inconsistent performance feedback. Our findings show that the impact of inconsistency depends on the exact configuration of the underlying performance feedback signal discrepancies. While consistently negative performance feedback signals would amplify their impact in stimulating increased R&D investments, inconsistent performance feedback signals created more nuanced effects. Having lower performance compared to an industry-based peer group—despite doing well compared to the previous year—made firms decrease their R&D investments. For the opposite case of inconsistent performance feedback, we did not find an effect on change in R&D investments. These findings support to a degree our contention that explaining the effects of inconsistent performance feedback requires a holistic consideration theoretical mechanism instead of one involving selective attention. In sum, these findings suggest future research should take into account the differences between distinct instances of inconsistent performance feedback.


2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Long Chen ◽  
Wei Tong Chen ◽  
Nai-Chieh Wei

Project operating cash flow forecasting techniques have evolved to enable detailed predictions relating to individual projects. These techniques, principally the cost-schedule integration (CSI) model, extensively use project cost estimates and schedule data. Despite CSI models having gained general acceptance, they have not been without criticism. Such criticism includes the problems of differential schedules between network and cost activities, ignoring the important information of payment conditions composed of payment lags, components, and frequency, and the combined adverse effects of payment irregularity and uniform distribution of cost over time. To resolve and alleviate these problems, this study develops a set of cost-payment coordination mechanisms for creating interaction among cost and payment activities. These mechanisms are then developed into a model. The accuracy of the model is assessed by comparing the historical flows on two case projects. The result shows that the patterns of predicted cost flows created with the model closely match those of the historical flows. Santrauka Su projektų veikla susijusių pinigų srautų prognozavimo metodai atsirado siekiant sudaryti detalias prognozes atskiriems projektams. Šiuose metoduose, o dažniausia sąnaudų ir darbų grafiko integracijos (angl. Cost-schedule integration, CSI) modelyje dažnai naudojamos projektų sąmatos ir duomenys apie darbų grafiką. Nors apskritai sąnaudų ir darbų grafiko integracijos modeliai pripažinti tinkamais, jie buvo kritikuoti, nes kyla problemų dėl skirtingų tinklinių ir su sąnaudomis susijusios veiklos grafikų, taip pat ignoruojama svarbi informacija apie mokėjimo sąlygas, kurias sudaro mokėjimų vėlavimas, komponentai bei dažnis, ir bendrą neigiamą nereguliaraus mokėjimo bei vienodo sąnaudų pasiskirstymo laikui bėgant poveikį. Siekiant šias problemas sumažinti ir išspręsti, šiame tyrime sukuriama sąnaudų ir mokėjimo koordinavimo mechanizmų grupė, sukurianti sąveiką tarp veiklos, susijusios su sąnaudomis ir mokėjimu. Tuomet iš šių mechanizmų sudaromas modelis. Modelio tikslumas įvertinamas lyginant dviejų atvejui tirti pasirinktų projektų srautų istoriją. Rezultatas rodo, kad su modeliu sudarytose sąnaudų srautų prognozėse tendencijos labai artimos realių sąnaudų srautų istorijos tendencijoms.


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