scholarly journals Are Technological Innovation and Foreign Direct Investment a Way to Boost Economic Growth? An Egyptian Case Study Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3265
Author(s):  
Maha Mohamed Alsebai Mohamed ◽  
Pingfeng Liu ◽  
Guihua Nie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model

Both technological innovation and foreign direct investment have received widespread attention in the literature on their role in promoting economic growth. Therefore, this study aims to test the relationship between foreign direct investment, technological innovation, and economic growth of the Egyptian economy during the period between 1990–2019 using the autoregressive distributed lag model simultaneous integration test. Our findings show of the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model estimation a joint complementary relationship between the rate of growth of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in US dollars and the independent variables in the model in the long and short term, which are statistically significant results. We found a positive significant relationship between the variables of incoming foreign direct investment and share of total capital formation in economic growth. Therefore, in the long term, the rate of inflation and the innovation index had a negative impact in the long term and the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium was very large, as it was estimated at 1.5 years (1/0.651). Furthermore, the study also provides valuable lessons and a strategic vision for the Egyptian government, which aspires to advance technology and attract more foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Taxation, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. A fresh evidence from combined cointegration test

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delani Moyo ◽  
Ahmed Samour ◽  
Turgut Tursoy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

scholarly journals Is the Relocation of Polluting Industries Prompted by FDI Flow and Stock, Globalisation, Corruption and Regulation?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1981
Author(s):  
Patrícia Hipólito Leal ◽  
Rafaela Vital Caetano ◽  
António Cardoso Marques
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Environmental Regulations ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model

Can globalisation and foreign direct investment shape sustainable development? Foreign direct investment is one of the main drivers for the transfer of polluting industries. With this in mind, the main objective of this research is to identify the role played by foreign direct investment (flow and stock), globalisation (de jure and de facto), corruption and regulatory quality in environmental degradation and sustainable development. To accomplish this objective, and to link the relationships under analysis to the level of development, a comparison between a group of developing countries and a group of developed ones was performed. The results confirm the suitability of the division of the countries by revealing various effects. This analysis was conducted from 1996 to 2017 and by recurring to the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. This study proves that foreign investors play a vital role in reaching sustainable development. Measures must be implemented to eliminate the distortions that cause a company based in a country with strict environmental regulations to relocate its production to one with lax environmental regulations. However, these measures need to be combined with complementary measures that encourage developing economies to agree to a possible slowdown in their economic growth if sufficiently compensated for this reduced growth.

Does energy efficiency affect economic growth? Evidence from aggregate and disaggregate levels

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 983-1006
Author(s):  
You-How Go ◽  
Lin-Sea Lau ◽  
Kwang-Jing Yii ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Relationship

This paper empirically examines the relationship between energy efficiency, CO2 emissions, foreign direct investment, exports, and real gross domestic product at both aggregate and disaggregate levels in Malaysia based on an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The annual data for the period of 1971–2013 are employed. The results indicate that energy efficiency Granger causes economic growth at the aggregate level, but not in each of the three main sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) of the economy. Another important finding of the study is that the export-led growth hypothesis is found to be valid in Malaysia at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels. The results of our study also confirm the fact that CO2 emissions do affect the overall economic performance and growth in all sectors, except for the primary sector. This finding implies that pollution from both secondary and tertiary sectors has led to economic growth in Malaysia. Moreover, it is also discovered that foreign direct investment does not have a significant impact on economic growth in Malaysia. The results of this study are essential for policymakers of Malaysia in designing appropriate policies in each sector that can lead to robust growth in the country. In addition to focusing on enhancing energy efficiency and promoting foreign direct investment, the policymakers should also start to look for alternative strategies to ensure long-term economic growth in the country.

scholarly journals Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Long-Term Growth in Ghana?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 214-229
Author(s):  
Arthur Benedict ◽  
Kyei Baffour Tutu ◽  
Afenya Millicent Salase
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government

In pursuant to sustainable economic growth on the ticket of FDI-led growth hypothesis, the government of Ghana has instituted a myriad of thoughtful policy reforms to help boost the economy to realize a self-sustaining economic growth. To some extent, the policies might have paid off as the country was named the highest recipient of FDI in West Africa in 2018. However, the supposed upsurge in the inflow of foreign direct investment in the country and its expected long-run spillover benefits have not been tangibly felt in the region as the economy continues to oscillate. Therefore, this study utilized two methods; the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and the variance decomposition method (VDM) to empirically examine economic growth of Ghana as a function of foreign direct investment (FDI) whiles controlling for exchange rate, financial development, trade oppeness and employment rate. The results of the study endorses the FDI-led growth for Ghana by indicating that a positive long run causal impact flows from FDI to economic growth. The findings from the VDM test affirm the results are robust and reliable. Therefore, the study suggests that government should amplify FDI inflow via policies like incentives to draw more foreign investors directly into other sectors other than the conventional sectors gratified by foreign investors.

scholarly journals Comparison the Error Rate of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) (Case study: Forecast of Export Quantities in DIY)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-177
Author(s):  
Dewi Kusuma Ningrum ◽  
Sugiyarto Surono
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model

Forecasting is estimating the size or number of something in the future. Regression model that enters current independent variable value, and lagged value is called distributed-lag model, if it enters one or more lagged value, it is called autoregressive. Koyck method is used for dynamic model which the lagged length is unknown, for the known lagged length it is used the Almon method. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) is a method that explains every variable in the model depend on the lag movement from the variable itself and all the others variable. This research aimed to explain the application of Autoregressive distributed-lag model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method for the forecasting for export amount in DIY. It takes export amount in DIY and inflation data, kurs, and Indonesias foreign exchange reserve. Forecasting formation: defining Koyck and Almon distributed-lag dynamic model, then the best model is chosen and distribution-lag dynamic forecasting is performed. After that it is performed stationary test, co-integration test, optimal lag examination, granger causality test, parameter estimation, VAR model stability, and performs forecasting with VAR method. The forecasting result shows MAPE value from ARDL method obtained is 0.475812%, while MAPE value from VAR method is 0.464473%. Thus it can be concluded that Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method is more effective to be used in case study of export amount in DIY forecasting. Keywords: Koyck; Almon; Lag; Autoregressive Distributed-Lag; Vector Autoregressive;

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

scholarly journals The Link Between Economic Growth, Crime and Deterrence Measures in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 24-40
Author(s):  
Adenuga Fabian Adekoya ◽  
Nor Azam Abdul Razak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Cost Of Crime ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

Abstract The level of crime in Nigeria has become devastating and in order to put more sanity into the economy and the country at large, the Government has embarked on different deterrence measures in curbing crime. Thus, this study examined the interaction of deterrence measures with crime in order to see how economic growth was affected when they were used in curbing crime at different instances. That is, the interaction of deterrence measures with crime informed us how they have helped in lowering crime in Nigeria for a better economic growth to subsist. The deterrence measures considered in this work are in line with the rational choice theory being the cost of crime imposed on the society. Furthermore, this study considered data from 1975 to 2013 with the use of autoregressive distributed lag model. Moreover, the results showed that crime dependency on deterrence measures asymmetrically constituted means of lowering economic growth in the country. Hence, this study suggested that prosecution should be well funded and in order to curb crime and improve economic growth in Nigeria. That is, this would afford the country to reduce the congestion of prison inmates and thus, it would discourage long waiting trials.

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