scholarly journals AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON SHORT TERM AND LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF CRUDE OIL ON ECONOMIC WELLBEING OF INDONESIA BY APPLYING AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 474-480
Author(s):  
Djoko Roespinoedji ◽  
Roeshartono Roespinoedji ◽  
Mohammed R.A. Siam ◽  
Mohd Farid Shamsudin
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Long Term Consequences

scholarly journals The Impact of Financial Development on Carbon Emission: Evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 6959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyuan Guo ◽  
Yanfang Hu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper studies the impact of financial development on carbon emissions in China from 1997 to 2016. First, this paper uses the entropy method to construct a synthetical index to measure the financial development. Meanwhile, a two-dimensional panel framework is introduced to group provinces in the panel analysis. The estimation results of the time series autoregressive distributed lag model show that for China as a whole, there is a weak carbon emissions reduction effect of financial development, whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect. The estimation results of the panel autoregressive distributed lag model also support that an increase in financial development suppresses carbon emissions. Although financial development inhibits carbon emissions both in the short run and in the long run, the absolute value of the long-term coefficient of financial development is significantly greater than that of the short-term coefficient.

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINANT PROFITABILITAS PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN SYARIAH PERIODE 2011-2018 PENDEKATAN AUTO REGRESIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1102
Author(s):  
Gita Martha Permatasari ◽  
Dian Filianti
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Method ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Lag Model

This study aims to determine the influence of the Macro Economy, namely GDP and Inflation and Bank Characteristics, namely CAR, FDR, NPF, BOPO and Size on the Profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry in Indonesia in the 2011 - 2018 Period. The data used are secondary data, namely quarterly data obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia (www.bi.go.id), Badan Pusat Statistik (www.bps.go.id), and Statistik Perbankan Syariah reports published by OJK (www.ojk.go.id). The sampling method used was purposive sampling method. The analysis technique uses the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model with statistical tools EViews 9. The results of the study show that in the short term of the GDP, Inflation, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the CAR, FDR, NPF variables have no significant effect on profitability of Islamic Banking Industry. Meanwhile in the long run of the GDP, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the Inflation, CAR, FDR, NPF variable does not significantly influence the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry.Keywords: Profitability, Sharia Bank, ARDL

Modelling labour demand in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (11) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Kamila Radlińska ◽  
Krzysztof Jaros ◽  
Agnieszka Jakubowska ◽  
Anna Rosa
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Labour Demand ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Production Approach

The aim of the paper is to construct a long-term model of labour demand in Poland, in which the explanatory variables are the average gross salary and gross value added. Additionally, the authors attempt to detect labour hoarding. The study adopted the production approach, which used autoregressive distributed lag model with an ARDL-ECM error correction mechanism. The model parametres were estimated on the basis of quarterly data on the average number of persons employed, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added, all of which related to the period from the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2018. The data used in the study came from Statistics Poland publications. The proposed approach estimated the actual demand for labour. In the analysed period, a long-term relationship between the average employment, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added was observed. Employment was decreasing as the average salary was growing, and its increase was connected with the production growth. Moreover, short-term deviations of the value of the actual employment from the value of employment estimated by the model were observed on the labour market, which indicates labour hoarding could have been taking place. However, due to an insufficient number of observations, the occurrence of this phenomenon could not be fully confirmed.

scholarly journals Estimating Supply Response of Some Strategic Crops in Egypt Using ARDL Model

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Moataz Eliw ◽  
Abbas Mottawea ◽  
Ahmed El-Shafei
Keyword(s):  
Supply Response ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Farm Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Net Revenue

This paper estimated the areas of main cereal crops in Egypt (Wheat, Maize, Rice) supply response of farm price, area harvested and net revenue by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) methodology to define the integral relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables, both in the long and short-run, in addition to determining the magnitude of the impacts of all dependent variables on the dependent variable, Main findings indicate that farmgate price has a statistically significant impact on wheat, maize and rice cultivated areas. Impact of yield on wheat cultivated area proved insignificant, while proved statistically significant on maize and rice cultivated areas. Impact of net revenue on wheat and maize cultivated areas were significant but was insignificant in case of rice. Applying ARDL bounds test revealed a long-term relationship between all variables in the model for wheat, but not for maize and rice, the study used the data during the period (2000-2017).

scholarly journals The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to Analyze Soybean Prices in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 05035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahjus Ekananda ◽  
T. Suryanto
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Volume ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Lag Model

The main objective of this study was to observe factors that affecting domestic soybean prices, including government intervention through BULOG. By using Bound Testing Cointegration method with ARDL approach. In the short term the world soybean price variables in the t-period and exchange rate affect the domestic soybean prices positively and significantly. The variable volume of soybean imports, GDP, and the role of BULOG as sole importer in the t-period does not affect the domestic soybean price significantly. In the long run, the t-period import tariff has a negative and significant effect.

scholarly journals Are Technological Innovation and Foreign Direct Investment a Way to Boost Economic Growth? An Egyptian Case Study Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3265
Author(s):  
Maha Mohamed Alsebai Mohamed ◽  
Pingfeng Liu ◽  
Guihua Nie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model

Both technological innovation and foreign direct investment have received widespread attention in the literature on their role in promoting economic growth. Therefore, this study aims to test the relationship between foreign direct investment, technological innovation, and economic growth of the Egyptian economy during the period between 1990–2019 using the autoregressive distributed lag model simultaneous integration test. Our findings show of the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model estimation a joint complementary relationship between the rate of growth of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in US dollars and the independent variables in the model in the long and short term, which are statistically significant results. We found a positive significant relationship between the variables of incoming foreign direct investment and share of total capital formation in economic growth. Therefore, in the long term, the rate of inflation and the innovation index had a negative impact in the long term and the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium was very large, as it was estimated at 1.5 years (1/0.651). Furthermore, the study also provides valuable lessons and a strategic vision for the Egyptian government, which aspires to advance technology and attract more foreign direct investment.

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