scholarly journals Investigating the Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on UK Supermarket Building Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Agha Hasan ◽  
Ali Bahadori-Jahromi ◽  
Anastasia Mylona ◽  
Marco Ferri ◽  
Hooman Tahayori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Emissions Scenario

The large-scale shifts in weather patterns and an unprecedented change in climate have given rise to the interest in how climate change will affect the carbon emissions of supermarkets. This study investigates the implications of future climatic conditions on the operation of supermarkets in the UK. The investigation was conducted by performing a series of energy modelling simulations on a LIDL supermarket model in London, based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) future weather years provided by the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE). Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were used to perform the experiment, and the baseline model was validated against the actual data. This investigation ascertains and quantifies the annual energy consumption, carbon emissions, and cooling and heating demand of the supermarket under different climatic projections, which further validate the scientific theory of annual temperature rise as a result of long-term climatic variation. The maximum percentage increase for the annual energy consumption for current and future weather data sets observed was 7.01 and 6.45 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, respectively, and 11.05, 14.07, and 17.68 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. A similar inclining trend in the case of annual CO2 emissions was observed where the peak increase percentage was 6.80 and 6.24 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high (90th) percentile, respectively and 10.84, 13.84, and 17.45 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium emissions scenario (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. The study also analyses the future heating and cooling demands of the three warmest months and three coldest months of the year, respectively, to determine future variance in their relative values.

scholarly journals Evidence for changes in historic and future groundwater levels in the UK

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Jackson ◽  
John P. Bloomfield ◽  
Jonathan D. Mackay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk

We examine the evidence for climate-change impacts on groundwater levels provided by studies of the historical observational record, and future climate-change impact modelling. To date no evidence has been found for systematic changes in groundwater drought frequency or intensity in the UK, but some evidence of multi-annual to decadal coherence of groundwater levels and large-scale climate indices has been found, which should be considered when trying to identify any trends. We analyse trends in long groundwater level time-series monitored in seven observation boreholes in the Chalk aquifer, and identify statistically significant declines at four of these sites, but do not attempt to attribute these to a change in a stimulus. The evidence for the impacts of future climate change on UK groundwater recharge and levels is limited. The number of studies that have been undertaken is small and different approaches have been adopted to quantify impacts. Furthermore, these studies have generally focused on relatively small regions and reported local findings. Consequently, it has been difficult to compare them between locations. We undertake some additional analysis of the probabilistic outputs of the one recent impact study that has produced coherent multi-site projections of changes in groundwater levels. These results suggest reductions in annual and average summer levels, and increases in average winter levels, by the 2050s under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, at most of the sites modelled, when expressed by the median of the ensemble of simulations. It is concluded, however, that local hydrogeological conditions can be an important control on the simulated response to a future climate projection.

scholarly journals Robust rainwater harvesting: probabilistic tank sizing for climate change adaptation

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 526-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lash ◽  
Sarah Ward ◽  
Tristan Kershaw ◽  
David Butler ◽  
Matthew Eames
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
New Approach ◽  
British Standard ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Simplified Method ◽  
The Uk

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems are increasingly being implemented in buildings. It is common in the UK for simple RWH tank sizing methods to be utilised, and these do not consider future climate change. This paper describes the development of a tool, which integrates elements of basic and detailed sizing approaches from the British Standard for RWH, with the latest probabilistic UK Climate Projections data. The method was initially applied to the design of a university building in Cornwall, UK. The methodology utilises 3,000 equi-probable rainfall patterns for tank sizing for each time period. Results indicate that, to ensure that it is ‘likely’ that the same non-potable demand could be met in 2080 as in the present, a tank 112% larger would be required. This increases to a 225% over-sizing for a ‘very likely’ probability of meeting the same level of non-potable demand. The same RWH system design was then assessed for three further UK locations with different rainfall characteristics. From these assessments, a simplified method was developed to enable practitioners to size RWH system tanks for current and future climates. The method provides a new approach to meet present and future non-potable demands, while preventing excessive over-sizing of tanks.

scholarly journals Global distribution of Sapindus habitats under current and future climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiming Liu ◽  
Lianchun Wang ◽  
Caowen Sun ◽  
Benye Xi ◽  
Doudou Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Abstract Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, Sapindus germplasm resources have been lost. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the present and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0–20°C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40–140 mm, a mean temperature of 2–25°C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19–28°C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6–7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

The potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation in Mid Wales

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Carless ◽  
P. G. Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River System ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Water Companies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Hydropower is a potential large source of electricity supply in Wales. The Upper River Severn in Mid Wales is a typical stream where a high head hydropower scheme could be developed and the river system at Plynlimon has some of the longest records for weather and flow in Wales. A micro-hydropower potential of 99 kW is demonstrated at Plynlimon and the potential impacts of climate change are simulated to assess the effects on flows and power outputs of such schemes under climate uncertainty. Based on UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) projections, the impacts of climate change are to significantly decrease both the stream flows and energy production during summer months but to increase flows and power production in the winter, with a net tendency to cancel out over the course of a full year. A methodology for assessing impacts of climate change on hydropower is established, which could be applied more widely to other potential hydropower sites such as lowland rivers or high base flow rivers in other parts of the UK. This will be useful for developers, water companies and environmental agencies to assess hydropower potential, economic viability and environmental impacts of micro-hydropower, under future climate change.

Equilibrium Spin-up of Cold and Warm Permafrost Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron Ross ◽  
Ryley Beddoe ◽  
Greg Siemens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
C Cycle ◽  
Warm Permafrost

<p>Initialization (spin-up) of a numerical ground temperature model is a critical but often neglected step for solving heat transfer problems in permafrost. Improper initialization can lead to significant underlying model drift in subsequent transient simulations, distorting the effects on ground temperature from future climate change or applied infrastructure.  In a typical spin-up simulation, a year or more of climate data are applied at the surface and cycled repeatedly until ground temperatures are declared to be at equilibrium with the imposed boundary conditions, and independent of the starting conditions.</p><p>Spin-up equilibrium is often simply declared after a specified number of spin-up cycles. In few studies, equilibrium is visually confirmed by plotting ground temperatures vs spin-up cycles until temperatures stabilize; or is declared when a certain inter-cycle-temperature-change threshold is met simultaneously at all depths, such as ∆T ≤ 0.01<sup>o</sup>C per cycle. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of these methods for determining an equilibrium state in a variety of permafrost models, including shallow and deep (10 – 200 m), high and low saturation soils (S = 100 and S = 20), and cold and warm permafrost (MAGT = ~-10 <sup>o</sup>C and >-1 <sup>o</sup>C). The efficacy of equilibrium criteria 0.01<sup>o</sup>C/cycle and 0.0001<sup>o</sup>C/cycle are compared. Both methods are shown to prematurely indicate equilibrium in multiple model scenarios.  Results show that no single criterion can programmatically detect equilibrium in all tested models, and in some scenarios can result in up to 10<sup>o</sup>C temperature error or 80% less permafrost than at true equilibrium.  A combination of equilibrium criteria and visual confirmation plots is recommended for evaluating and declaring equilibrium in a spin-up simulation.</p><p>Long-duration spin-up is particularly important for deep (10+ m) ground models where thermal inertia of underlying permafrost slows the ground temperature response to surface forcing, often requiring hundreds or even thousands of spin-up cycles to establish equilibrium. Subsequent transient analyses also show that use of a properly initialized 100 m permafrost model can reduce the effect of climate change on mean annual ground temperature of cold permafrost by more than 1 <sup>o</sup>C and 3 <sup>o</sup>C under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate projections, respectively, when compared to an identical 25 m model. These results have important implications for scientists, engineers and policy makers that rely on model projections of long-term permafrost conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Dobler ◽  
G. Bürger ◽  
J. Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Station Data

Abstract. The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

scholarly journals Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1s) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Leedale ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Anne E. Jones ◽  
Grigory Nikulin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Recent Climate

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

scholarly journals Current and future occurrences of health-relevant, compound heat and ozone pollution events in six European ozone-temperature regions 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Jahn ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Elevated Ozone

<p>Air pollution and heat events present two major health risks, both already independently posing a significant threat to human health and life. High levels of ground-level ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and air temperature often coincide due to the underlying physical relationships between both variables. The most severe health outcome is in general associated with the co-occurrence of both hazards (e.g. Hertig et al. 2020), since concurrent elevated levels of temperature and ozone concentrations represent a twofold exposure and can lead to a risk beyond the sum of the individual effects. Consequently, in the current contribution, a compound approach considering both hazards simultaneously as so-called ozone-temperature (o-t-)events is chosen by jointly analyzing elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels in Europe.</p><p>Previous studies already point to the fact that the relationship of underlying synoptic and meteorological drivers with one or both of these health stressors as well as the correlation between both variables vary with the location of sites and seasons (e.g. Otero et al. 2016; Jahn, Hertig 2020). Therefore, a hierarchical clustering analysis is applied to objectively divide the study domain in regions of homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics (o-t-regions). Statistical models to assess the synoptic and large-scale meteorological mechanisms which represent main drivers of concurrent o-t-events are developed for each identified o-t-region.</p><p>Compound elevated ozone concentration and air temperature events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change in many parts of Europe (e.g. Jahn, Hertig 2020; Hertig 2020). Statistical projections of potential frequency shifts of compound o-t-events until the end of the twenty-first century are assessed using the output of Earth System Models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).</p><p><em>Hertig, E. (2020) Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z</em></p><p><em>Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020) Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271</em></p><p><em>Jahn, S., Hertig, E. (2020) Modeling and projecting health‐relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869‐020‐009610</em></p><p><em>Otero N., Sillmann J., Schnell J.L., Rust H.W., Butler T. (2016) Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/2/024005</em></p>

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2235-2262
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

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