The potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation in Mid Wales

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Carless ◽  
P. G. Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River System ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Water Companies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Hydropower is a potential large source of electricity supply in Wales. The Upper River Severn in Mid Wales is a typical stream where a high head hydropower scheme could be developed and the river system at Plynlimon has some of the longest records for weather and flow in Wales. A micro-hydropower potential of 99 kW is demonstrated at Plynlimon and the potential impacts of climate change are simulated to assess the effects on flows and power outputs of such schemes under climate uncertainty. Based on UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) projections, the impacts of climate change are to significantly decrease both the stream flows and energy production during summer months but to increase flows and power production in the winter, with a net tendency to cancel out over the course of a full year. A methodology for assessing impacts of climate change on hydropower is established, which could be applied more widely to other potential hydropower sites such as lowland rivers or high base flow rivers in other parts of the UK. This will be useful for developers, water companies and environmental agencies to assess hydropower potential, economic viability and environmental impacts of micro-hydropower, under future climate change.

scholarly journals The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S Reynard ◽  
Alison L Kay ◽  
Molly Anderson ◽  
Bill Donovan ◽  
Caroline Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Floods are one of the biggest natural hazards to society, and there is increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on flood occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, flood risk is likely to increase in the future not just through increased flood occurrence, but also through socio-economic changes, such as increasing population. The extent to which adaptation measures can offset this increased risk will depend on the level of future climate change, but there exists an urgent need for information on the potential impacts of climate change on floods, so that these can be accounted for by flood management authorities and local planners aiming to reduce flood risk. Agencies across the UK have been pro-active in providing such guidance for many years and in refining it as the science of climate change and hydrological impacts has developed. The history of this guidance for fluvial flood risk in England is presented and discussed here, including the recent adoption of a regional risk-based approach. Such an approach could be developed and applied to flood risk management in other countries, and to other sectors affected by climate change.

scholarly journals Robust rainwater harvesting: probabilistic tank sizing for climate change adaptation

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 526-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lash ◽  
Sarah Ward ◽  
Tristan Kershaw ◽  
David Butler ◽  
Matthew Eames
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
New Approach ◽  
British Standard ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Simplified Method ◽  
The Uk

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems are increasingly being implemented in buildings. It is common in the UK for simple RWH tank sizing methods to be utilised, and these do not consider future climate change. This paper describes the development of a tool, which integrates elements of basic and detailed sizing approaches from the British Standard for RWH, with the latest probabilistic UK Climate Projections data. The method was initially applied to the design of a university building in Cornwall, UK. The methodology utilises 3,000 equi-probable rainfall patterns for tank sizing for each time period. Results indicate that, to ensure that it is ‘likely’ that the same non-potable demand could be met in 2080 as in the present, a tank 112% larger would be required. This increases to a 225% over-sizing for a ‘very likely’ probability of meeting the same level of non-potable demand. The same RWH system design was then assessed for three further UK locations with different rainfall characteristics. From these assessments, a simplified method was developed to enable practitioners to size RWH system tanks for current and future climates. The method provides a new approach to meet present and future non-potable demands, while preventing excessive over-sizing of tanks.

scholarly journals Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson C. H. Chan ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
Katie A. Smith ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Nigel W. Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Past ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify storylines of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis, and analyses counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence, and 3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions, particularly for northern catchments at shorter time scales. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought conditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a three dry winter scenario. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–76) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–93) shows that for each storyline, drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.

scholarly journals Investigating the Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on UK Supermarket Building Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Agha Hasan ◽  
Ali Bahadori-Jahromi ◽  
Anastasia Mylona ◽  
Marco Ferri ◽  
Hooman Tahayori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Emissions Scenario

The large-scale shifts in weather patterns and an unprecedented change in climate have given rise to the interest in how climate change will affect the carbon emissions of supermarkets. This study investigates the implications of future climatic conditions on the operation of supermarkets in the UK. The investigation was conducted by performing a series of energy modelling simulations on a LIDL supermarket model in London, based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) future weather years provided by the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE). Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were used to perform the experiment, and the baseline model was validated against the actual data. This investigation ascertains and quantifies the annual energy consumption, carbon emissions, and cooling and heating demand of the supermarket under different climatic projections, which further validate the scientific theory of annual temperature rise as a result of long-term climatic variation. The maximum percentage increase for the annual energy consumption for current and future weather data sets observed was 7.01 and 6.45 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, respectively, and 11.05, 14.07, and 17.68 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. A similar inclining trend in the case of annual CO2 emissions was observed where the peak increase percentage was 6.80 and 6.24 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high (90th) percentile, respectively and 10.84, 13.84, and 17.45 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium emissions scenario (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. The study also analyses the future heating and cooling demands of the three warmest months and three coldest months of the year, respectively, to determine future variance in their relative values.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Productivity of Eleven Staple Crops in Rwanda

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4116
Author(s):  
Kemen Austin ◽  
Robert Beach ◽  
Daniel Lapidus ◽  
Marwa Salem ◽  
Naomi Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Potential Productivity ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This study quantifies the potential responses of 11 staple crop yields to projected changes in temperature and precipitation in Rwanda, using a cross sectional model based on yield data collected across more than 14,000 villages. We incorporated a relatively high spatial resolution dataset on crop productivity, considered a broad range of crops relevant to national agricultural production priorities, used environmental data developed specifically for Rwanda, and reported uncertainty both from our estimation model and due to uncertainty in future climate projections. We estimate that future climate change will have the largest impacts on potential productivity of maize, bush bean, and Irish potato. All three crops are likely to experience a reduction in potential yields of at least 10% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and at least 15% under RCP 8.5 by 2050. Notably, these are important crops nationally, and three of the crops targeted by Rwanda’s Crop Intensification Program. We find that the most severe reductions in potential crop yields will occur in the drier eastern savannah and plateau regions, but that the impacts of climate change could be neutral or even positive in the highlands through mid-century. The refined spatial scale of our analysis allows us to identify potentially vulnerable regions where adaptation investments may need to be prioritized to support food security and climate resilience in Rwanda’s agricultural sector.

Equilibrium Spin-up of Cold and Warm Permafrost Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron Ross ◽  
Ryley Beddoe ◽  
Greg Siemens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
C Cycle ◽  
Warm Permafrost

<p>Initialization (spin-up) of a numerical ground temperature model is a critical but often neglected step for solving heat transfer problems in permafrost. Improper initialization can lead to significant underlying model drift in subsequent transient simulations, distorting the effects on ground temperature from future climate change or applied infrastructure.  In a typical spin-up simulation, a year or more of climate data are applied at the surface and cycled repeatedly until ground temperatures are declared to be at equilibrium with the imposed boundary conditions, and independent of the starting conditions.</p><p>Spin-up equilibrium is often simply declared after a specified number of spin-up cycles. In few studies, equilibrium is visually confirmed by plotting ground temperatures vs spin-up cycles until temperatures stabilize; or is declared when a certain inter-cycle-temperature-change threshold is met simultaneously at all depths, such as ∆T ≤ 0.01<sup>o</sup>C per cycle. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of these methods for determining an equilibrium state in a variety of permafrost models, including shallow and deep (10 – 200 m), high and low saturation soils (S = 100 and S = 20), and cold and warm permafrost (MAGT = ~-10 <sup>o</sup>C and >-1 <sup>o</sup>C). The efficacy of equilibrium criteria 0.01<sup>o</sup>C/cycle and 0.0001<sup>o</sup>C/cycle are compared. Both methods are shown to prematurely indicate equilibrium in multiple model scenarios.  Results show that no single criterion can programmatically detect equilibrium in all tested models, and in some scenarios can result in up to 10<sup>o</sup>C temperature error or 80% less permafrost than at true equilibrium.  A combination of equilibrium criteria and visual confirmation plots is recommended for evaluating and declaring equilibrium in a spin-up simulation.</p><p>Long-duration spin-up is particularly important for deep (10+ m) ground models where thermal inertia of underlying permafrost slows the ground temperature response to surface forcing, often requiring hundreds or even thousands of spin-up cycles to establish equilibrium. Subsequent transient analyses also show that use of a properly initialized 100 m permafrost model can reduce the effect of climate change on mean annual ground temperature of cold permafrost by more than 1 <sup>o</sup>C and 3 <sup>o</sup>C under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate projections, respectively, when compared to an identical 25 m model. These results have important implications for scientists, engineers and policy makers that rely on model projections of long-term permafrost conditions.</p>

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

scholarly journals Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1s) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Leedale ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Anne E. Jones ◽  
Grigory Nikulin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Recent Climate

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

scholarly journals Mixing of Porpoise Ecotypes in South Western UK Waters Revealed by Genetic Profiling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaël C. Fontaine ◽  
Oliver Thatcher ◽  
Nicolas Ray ◽  
Sylvain Piry ◽  
Andrew Brownlow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Isolation By Distance ◽  
Genetic Ancestry ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Genetic Profiling ◽  
Body Sizes ◽  
Morphological Differences ◽  
Genetic Pools ◽  
The Uk

AbstractContact zones between marine ecotypes are of interest for understanding how key pelagic predators may react to climate change. We analysed the fine scale genetic structure and morphological variation in harbour porpoises around the UK, at the proposed northern limit of a contact zone between southern and northern ecotypes in the Bay of Biscay. Using a sample of 591 stranded animals spanning a decade and microsatellite profiling at 9 loci, clustering and spatial analyses revealed that animals stranded around UK are composed of mixed genetic ancestries from two genetic pools. Porpoises from SW England displayed a distinct genetic ancestry, had larger body-sizes and inhabit an environment differentiated from other UK costal areas. Genetic ancestry blends from one group to the other along a SW-NE axis along the UK coastline, and showed a significant association with body size, consistent with morphological differences between the two ecotypes and their mixing around the SW coast. We also found significant isolation-by-distance among juveniles, suggesting that stranded juveniles display reduced intergenerational dispersal, while adults show larger variance. The fine scale structure of this admixture zone raises the question of how it will respond to future climate change and provides a reference point for further study.

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