scholarly journals Sweden Backcasting, Now?—Strategic Planning for Covid-19 Mitigation in a Liberal Democracy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jouni Korhonen ◽  
Birk Granberg

Sweden is applying the herd-immunity as its main natural science strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has been communicated in a transparent manner. Small groups of young(er) people of up to approximately 50 individuals are subject to a bigger risk of infection than others. The objective of this paper is to make a case for the argument, that alongside herd-immunity, Sweden is using the social science originated planning approach: backcasting. The government has not been transparent on backcasting. The authors present the use of backcasting only as an argument based on available data and authors’ reasoning. A backcasting exercise for the case of the Swedish economy is constructed. This frame outlines five interdependent levels with which a national economy can apply what this paper calls a backcasting herd-immunity approach in its COVID-19 policy. The authors further suggest how it is possible to use social science, natural science and political ideology as complementary in COVID-19 mitigation in particular and in sustainability strategies in general.

Author(s):  
Alex Rosenberg

Each of the sciences, the physical, biological, social and behavioural, have emerged from philosophy in a process that began in the time of Euclid and Plato. These sciences have left a legacy to philosophy of problems that they have been unable to deal with, either as nascent or as mature disciplines. Some of these problems are common to all sciences, some restricted to one of the four general divisions mentioned above, and some of these philosophical problems bear on only one or another of the special sciences. If the natural sciences have been of concern to philosophers longer than the social sciences, this is simply because the former are older disciplines. It is only in the last century that the social sciences have emerged as distinct subjects in their currently recognizable state. Some of the problems in the philosophy of social science are older than these disciplines, in part because these problems have their origins in nineteenth-century philosophy of history. Of course the full flowering of the philosophy of science dates from the emergence of the logical positivists in the 1920s. Although the logical positivists’ philosophy of science has often been accused of being satisfied with a one-sided diet of physics, in fact their interest in the social sciences was at least as great as their interest in physical science. Indeed, as the pre-eminent arena for the application of prescriptions drawn from the study of physics, social science always held a place of special importance for philosophers of science. Even those who reject the role of prescription from the philosophy of physics, cannot deny the relevance of epistemology and metaphysics for the social sciences. Scientific change may be the result of many factors, only some of them cognitive. However, scientific advance is driven by the interaction of data and theory. Data controls the theories we adopt and the direction in which we refine them. Theory directs and constrains both the sort of experiments that are done to collect data and the apparatus with which they are undertaken: research design is driven by theory, and so is methodological prescription. But what drives research design in disciplines that are only in their infancy, or in which for some other reason, there is a theoretical vacuum? In the absence of theory how does the scientist decide on what the discipline is trying to explain, what its standards of explanatory adequacy are, and what counts as the data that will help decide between theories? In such cases there are only two things scientists have to go on: successful theories and methods in other disciplines which are thought to be relevant to the nascent discipline, and the epistemology and metaphysics which underwrites the relevance of these theories and methods. This makes philosophy of special importance to the social sciences. The role of philosophy in guiding research in a theoretical vacuum makes the most fundamental question of the philosophy of science whether the social sciences can, do, or should employ to a greater or lesser degree the same methods as those of the natural sciences? Note that this question presupposes that we have already accurately identified the methods of natural science. If we have not yet done so, the question becomes largely academic. For many philosophers of social science the question of what the methods of natural science are was long answered by the logical positivist philosophy of physical science. And the increasing adoption of such methods by empirical, mathematical, and experimental social scientists raised a second central question for philosophers: why had these methods so apparently successful in natural science been apparently far less successful when self-consciously adapted to the research agendas of the several social sciences? One traditional answer begins with the assumption that human behaviour or action and its consequences are simply not amenable to scientific study, because they are the results of free will, or less radically, because the significant kinds or categories into which social events must be classed are unique in a way that makes non-trivial general theories about them impossible. These answers immediately raise some of the most difficult problems of metaphysics and epistemology: the nature of the mind, the thesis of determinism, and the analysis of causation. Even less radical explanations for the differences between social and natural sciences raise these fundamental questions of philosophy. Once the consensus on the adequacy of a positivist philosophy of natural science gave way in the late 1960s, these central questions of the philosophy of social science became far more difficult ones to answer. Not only was the benchmark of what counts as science lost, but the measure of progress became so obscure that it was no longer uncontroversial to claim that the social sciences’ rate of progress was any different from that of natural science.


SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) is an innovative computerized programming for statistical analysis, specially developed for the social sciences research. Now a day, it is widely used particularly in the huge data analysis. SPSS is a software through which researcher can understand the human behavior, the role and influence of the organization, etc. including the analytic thinking of several indicators of society in a scientific way. Currently, this software is widely exercised by the business hubs, market analysis agencies, and educational institutions and even by the government itself. Simply, we can aver that it assists the researcher in concerning to the documentation of the data. It is a full package software encompasses all forms of statistical analysis which is efficaciously able to convert the quantitative data to qualitative analysis. This present paper is an effort to understand the usability, difficulties and shortcomings of the SPSS software in the social science research.


Numeracy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Connor

The COVID-19 pandemic has led many people to form social bubbles. These social bubbles are small groups of people who interact with one another but restrict interactions with the outside world. The assumption in forming social bubbles is that risk of infection and severe outcomes, like hospitalization, are reduced. How effective are social bubbles? A Bayesian event tree is developed to calculate the probabilities of specific outcomes, like hospitalization, using example rates of infection in the greater community and example prior functions describing the effectiveness of isolation by members of the social bubble. The probabilities are solved for two contrasting examples: members of an assisted living facility and members of a classroom, including their teacher. A web-based calculator is provided so readers can experiment with the Bayesian event tree and learn more about these probabilities by modeling their own social bubble.


Author(s):  
Lee Cronk ◽  
Beth L. Leech

This chapter examines Mancur Olson's arguments, which he articulated in The Logic of Collective Action, and compares them with those of his supporters and detractors. It also reviews the social science literature on cooperation, focusing primarily on the theoretical and empirical research on collective action that grew out of Olson's challenge. According to Olson, the members of a group have interests in common. His logic was an economic logic, based on the behavior of firms in the marketplace in their quest for profits. Olson extended this logic of the market to human social behavior. The chapter considers Olson's solutions to the problem of free riding and the possibility that no group would ever form, including coercion, small groups, selective benefits, and the by-product theory of public goods provisioning. Finally, it describes some major extensions of and challenges to Olson's path-breaking model.


2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 6-10
Author(s):  
Michal Stehlík

Abstract At the onset of preparations of new permanent exhibitions of the National Museum (NM) in 2011, it was necessary to define their content. Several expert teams composed of NM staff and other institutions took part in this process. Historical topics were embraced in a novel perspective, their comprehensive presentation was so far absent in the NM. Social science expositions in the History exhibition will map the development of society from the Early Middle Ages until the end of the 20th century. The People exhibition will interlink the topics of anthropology, archaeology and classical archaeology. Natural science topics will be elaborated on three levels – nature around us, stories of evolution, and an experimental area (ExperiMus). They will reveal processes affecting the shape and transformations of Earth. The Social and Natural science parts will be linked through the Treasury exhibition. The Pantheon and the Children’s Museum will form completely independent units. The architecture of exhibitions will be the result of public tenders conducted in compliance with the Act on Public Contracts. New expositions of the NM are to be opened in 2019 (Natural science) and 2020 (Social science) on a total area of 12 000 m2.


Author(s):  
Kaisa Kärki

AbstractIn bioethics vaccine refusal is often discussed as an instance of free riding on the herd immunity of an infectious disease. However, the social science of vaccine refusal suggests that the reasoning behind refusal to vaccinate more often stems from previous negative experiences in healthcare practice as well as deeply felt distrust of healthcare institutions. Moreover, vaccine refusal often acts like an exit mechanism. Whilst free riding is often met with sanctions, exit, according to Albert Hirschman’s theory of exit and voice is most efficiently met by addressing concerns and increasing the quality and number of feedback channels. If the legitimate grievances responsible for vaccine refusal are not heard or addressed by healthcare policy, further polarization of attitudes to vaccines is likely to ensue. Thus, there is a need in the bioethics of vaccine refusal to understand the diverse ethical questions of this inflammable issue in addition to those of individual responsibility to vaccinate.


2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (29) ◽  
pp. 451
Author(s):  
Jan-Erik Lane

It is true that climate change and its implications are given much more attention now, after the COP21 Agreement in Paris. There are almost weekly conferences about global warming and the debate is intense all over the globe. This is a positive, but one must point out the exclusive focus upon natural science and technological issues, which actually bypasses the thorny problems of international governance and the coordination of states. The social science aspects of global warming policy-making will be pointed out in this article. This is a problematic by itself that reduces the likelihood of successful implementation of the goals of the COP21 Agreement (Goal I, Goal II and Goal III in global decarbonistion).


Reviews: The State's Servants: The Civil Service of the English Republic, 1649–1660, The Treasury 1660–1870. The Foundations of Control, Front-Bench Opposition: The Role of the Leader of the Opposition, The Shadow Cabinet and the Shadow Government in British Politics, Backbench Opinion in the House of Commons 1945–55, British Nationalisation 1945–1973, The Politics of Rural Wales: A Study of Cardiganshire, Government and Industry in Britain, The Federation of British Industries in Politics, 1945–65, The Beliefs of Politicians: Ideology, Conflict and Democracy in Britain and Italy, beyond the Polls: Political Ideology and its Correlates, Politics in Europe: Structures and Processes in Some Postindustrial Societies, The Government and Politics of France, La Genèse De L'Initiative Législative. Un Cas: L'Agri-Culture, 1958–1968, Le Droit D'Amendement Dans La Constitution De La Ve République. Etude Pratique De Son Utilisation Pour L'élaboration De La Loi D'Orientation Foncière, Government in the Federal Republic of Germany: The Executive at Work, Italy—Republic without Government?, The Making of the President 1972, National Strategy in a Decade of Change: An Emerging U.S. Policy, The Formulation of Irish Foreign Policy, Twenty Years Indonesian Foreign Policy 1945–1965, The Foreign Policy of the Third Reich, Hitler's Rise to Power: The Nazi Movement in Bavaria, 1923–1933, Public Administration in Australia, Revolutionary Breakthroughs and National De-Velopment: The Case of Romania, 1944–1965, the Russian Revolution of February 1917, the Ombudsman Plan, Politics and the Administration of Justice, Basic Forms of Government: A Sketch and a Model, Progress in Mathematical Social Sciences: Coalition Theories and Cabinet Formations, a London Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Seventh Supplement 1969–72

1974 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-385
Author(s):  
John A. Armstrong ◽  
G. K. Fry ◽  
Max Beloff ◽  
Gavin Drewry ◽  
Leonard Tivey ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Tri Rahmah Hayati ◽  
Kamid Kamid

The results of the Programme for International Students Assessment (PISA) survey published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) show that Indonesia is still a country with low mathematical literacy skills. The ability of mathematical literacy is closely related to interpreting contextual problems into mathematical language. In modern times like today, what is needed is not only mathematics as arithmetic, but also mathematical literacy is needed related to mathematical reasoning and problem solving. The government has included contextual aspects of the curriculum applied in schools. However, in reality many schools still do not have contextual abilities that are in line with the still low literacy abilities of students in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to describe the mathematical literacy process in senior high schools which in this study were students with majoring in science and students with majoring in social studies. This type of research is descriptive qualitative research. The research subjects were grade X students majoring in science and majoring in social studies. The instruments used in this study were the authors themselves, math literacy questions sheets, and interview guidelines. The results showed that the mathematics literacy process of high school students obtained was both students with majoring in Natural Sciences and students with majoring in Social Sciences are 1) The social science students have been able to reasoning and planning to solve the problem well, even though there still mistakes. The natural science students well in calculation and use formula. However, the natural science students are unable not to argue mathematically and express opinions. 2) the social science students are not good at reasoning and planning to solve the problem, however well in express what students thought verbally. For diagrams translate and solve to math language, the students from social science still difficult. Use of formula in natural science students still not right.


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