scholarly journals Species Distribution Modeling of Sassafras Tzumu and Implications for Forest Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keliang Zhang ◽  
Yin Zhang ◽  
Diwen Jia ◽  
Jun Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Deciduous Tree ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Rule Set ◽  
Present Distribution

Sassafras tzumu (Chinese sassafras) is an economically and ecologically important deciduous tree species. Over the past few decades, increasing market demands and unprecedented human activity in its natural habitat have created new threats to this species. Nonetheless, the distribution of its habitat and the crucial environmental parameters that determine the habitat suitability remain largely unclear. The present study modeled the current and future geographical distribution of S. tzumu by maximum entropy (MAXENT) and genetic algorithm for rule set prediction (GARP). The value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Kappa, and true skill statistic (TSS) of MAXENT was significantly higher than that of GARP, indicating that MAXENT performed better. Temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China where the species had been recorded was suitable for growth of S. tzumu. Relative humidity (26.2% of permutation importance), average temperature during the driest quarter (16.6%), annual precipitation (12.6%), and mean diurnal temperature range (10.3%) were identified as the primary factors that accounted for the present distribution of S. tzumu in China. Under the climate change scenario, both algorithms predicted that range of suitable habitat will expand geographically to northwest. Our results may be adopted for guiding the preservation of S. tzumu through identifying the habitats susceptible to climate change.

Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Chhetri ◽  
Hemant K. Badola ◽  
Sudip Barat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Azimuth Angle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
Present Distribution ◽  
Community Assemblages

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Cholera: A Review on the Global Status and Future Challenges

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 449
Author(s):  
Eirini Christaki ◽  
Panagiotis Dimitriou ◽  
Katerina Pantavou ◽  
Georgios K. Nikolopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Educational Strategies ◽  
Global Status ◽  
Water Ecosystems ◽  
Sanitation Systems ◽  
The Impact

Water ecosystems can be rather sensitive to evolving or sudden changes in weather parameters. These changes can result in alterations in the natural habitat of pathogens, vectors, and human hosts, as well as in the transmission dynamics and geographic distribution of infectious agents. However, the interaction between climate change and infectious disease is rather complicated and not deeply understood. In this narrative review, we discuss climate-driven changes in the epidemiology of Vibrio species-associated diseases with an emphasis on cholera. Changes in environmental parameters do shape the epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks of cholera cause significant disease burden, especially in developing countries. Improved sanitation systems, access to clean water, educational strategies, and vaccination campaigns can help control vibriosis. In addition, real-time assessment of climatic parameters with remote-sensing technologies in combination with robust surveillance systems could help detect environmental changes in high-risk areas and result in early public health interventions that can mitigate potential outbreaks.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11253
Author(s):  
Zhen Cao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Xinxin Zhang ◽  
Zengjun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

scholarly journals Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 4757-4770 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. Komarov ◽  
V. N. Shanin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
General Scheme ◽  
Organic Matter Content ◽  
Matter Content ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Deciduous Tree ◽  
Change Scenario

Abstract. An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to climate change and additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in European Central Russia with a total area of about 17 000 km2 in distinct environmental conditions were chosen. Simulations were carried out with two climatic scenarios (ambient climate and climate change) and different levels of nitrogen deposition (ambient value and increase by 6 and 12 kg N ha−1 yr−1). The simulations showed that increased nitrogen deposition leads to increased productivity of trees, increased organic matter content in organic soil horizons, and an increased portion of deciduous tree species. For the climate change scenario, the same effects on forest productivity and similar shifts in species composition were predicted but the accumulation of organic matter in soil was decreased.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 429
Author(s):  
Yadong Xu ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Huiru Zhao ◽  
Meiling Yang ◽  
Yuqi Zhuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

scholarly journals Predicting Suitable Environments and Potential Occurrences for Cinnamomum camphora (Linn.) Presl.

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1126
Author(s):  
Jiasong Meng ◽  
Miao Li ◽  
Jinhui Guo ◽  
Daqiu Zhao ◽  
Jun Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Cinnamomum Camphora ◽  
Factors Influencing

Global climate change has created a major threat to biodiversity. However, little is known about the habitat and distribution characteristics of Cinnamomum camphora (Linn.) Presl., an evergreen tree growing in tropical and subtropical Asia, as well as the factors influencing its distribution. The present study employed Maxent and a GARP to establish a potential distribution model for the target species based on 182 known occurrence sites and 17 environmental variables. The results indicate that Maxent performed better than GARP. The mean diurnal temperature range, annual precipitation, mean air temperature of driest quarter and sunshine duration in growing season were important environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. camphora and contributed 40.9%, 23.0%, 10.5%, and 7.2% to the variation in the model contribution, respectively. Based on the models, the subtropical and temperate regions of Eastern China, where the species has been recorded, had a high suitability for this species. Under each climate change scenario, the potential geographical distribution shifted farther north and toward a higher elevation. The predicted spatial and temporal distribution patterns of this species can provide guidance for the development strategies for forest management and species protection.

scholarly journals The snow leopard suitable habitat analysis and climate refugia identification in Qinghai province, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Li ◽  
Yadong Xue ◽  
Charlotte Hacker ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Ye Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Snow Leopard ◽  
Qinghai Province ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Global climate change poses major challenges for current biodiversity conservation efforts. Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in snow leopard (Panthera uncia) suitable habitat in Qinghai Province, China under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of snow leopard suitable habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km2 under current conditions and 228,997 km2 under 2050’s climatic scenario, and that its mean elevation would shift upward 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of the currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km2, mainly distributed in Sanjiangyuan, Qilian mountains and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.

scholarly journals Predicting The Potential Distribution of Campsis Grandiflora In China Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianheng Ouyang ◽  
Jiangling Pan ◽  
Zhitao Wu ◽  
Anliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Central China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Diurnal Range

Abstract As the research of geographical distribution of species shows significant influence on people’s understanding of specie protection and utilization, it is important to study the influence of climate change onto the geographical distribution pattern of plants. Based on 166 distribution records as well as 11 climate and terrain variables with low correlation in China, we used MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential distribution of Campsis grandiflora under climate change and then determine the dominant climate variables which affect the geographical distribution significantly by analysis. The results show that the area under the curve (AUC) of the train is 0.939, which implies our prediction is accurate. Under the current climate condition, the area of potentially suitable habitat is 238.29×104 km2, mainly distributed in northern China, central China, southern China, and eastern China. The dominant variables affected the geographical distribution of Campsis grandiflora are mean diurnal range, range of annual temperature variation, mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest season, the driest monthly precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, as well as altitude. In the future climate change scenario, the total area of suitable habitat and highly suitable habitat will increase, whilst the area of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat will decrease. In the meantime, the centroid of the potentially suitable area of Campsis grandiflora will migrate to higher latitude areas.

scholarly journals Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 6829-6855
Author(s):  
A. S. Komarov ◽  
V. N. Shanin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Nitrogen Deposition ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
General Scheme ◽  
Organic Matter Content ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
European Russia ◽  
Deciduous Tree ◽  
Change Scenario

Abstract. An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in Central European Russia with a total area of about 17 000 km2 in distinct environmental conditions were chosen. Simulations were carried out with two climatic scenarios (stable climate and climate change) and different levels of nitrogen deposition. The simulations showed that increased nitrogen deposition leads to increased productivity of trees, increased organic matter content in organic soil horizons, and an increased portion of deciduous tree species. For the climate change scenario, the same effects on productivity and shifts in species composition were predicted but there was a negative effect on the accumulation of organic matter in soil.

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