scholarly journals Predicting Suitable Environments and Potential Occurrences for Cinnamomum camphora (Linn.) Presl.

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1126
Author(s):  
Jiasong Meng ◽  
Miao Li ◽  
Jinhui Guo ◽  
Daqiu Zhao ◽  
Jun Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Cinnamomum Camphora ◽  
Factors Influencing

Global climate change has created a major threat to biodiversity. However, little is known about the habitat and distribution characteristics of Cinnamomum camphora (Linn.) Presl., an evergreen tree growing in tropical and subtropical Asia, as well as the factors influencing its distribution. The present study employed Maxent and a GARP to establish a potential distribution model for the target species based on 182 known occurrence sites and 17 environmental variables. The results indicate that Maxent performed better than GARP. The mean diurnal temperature range, annual precipitation, mean air temperature of driest quarter and sunshine duration in growing season were important environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. camphora and contributed 40.9%, 23.0%, 10.5%, and 7.2% to the variation in the model contribution, respectively. Based on the models, the subtropical and temperate regions of Eastern China, where the species has been recorded, had a high suitability for this species. Under each climate change scenario, the potential geographical distribution shifted farther north and toward a higher elevation. The predicted spatial and temporal distribution patterns of this species can provide guidance for the development strategies for forest management and species protection.

scholarly journals Early mortality and freshwater forage fish recruitment: nonnative alewife and native rainbow smelt interactions in Lake Champlain

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (5) ◽  
pp. 806-814
Author(s):  
Paul W. Simonin ◽  
Lars G. Rudstam ◽  
Patrick J. Sullivan ◽  
Donna L. Parrish ◽  
Bernard Pientka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Fish Distribution ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Lake Champlain ◽  
Species Introduction ◽  
Rainbow Smelt ◽  
Fish Recruitment

We studied the consequences of a nonnative species introduction and changes in temperature on early mortality and recruitment of native rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and nonnative alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in Lake Champlain using a simulation model. Distribution patterns of adults and young-of-the-year (YOY) fish were predicted using a model based on observed distribution of different age groups as a function of temperature and light profiles simulated on a daily basis. Mortality rates averaged over the growing season were calculated as a function of fish densities and overlap between adults and YOY. Survival of YOY rainbow smelt and alewife depended on which predator was most abundant. Rainbow smelt YOY mortality rates are highest when rainbow smelt adults are abundant, and alewife YOY mortality rates are highest when alewife adults are abundant, potentially allowing coexistence. August and September mortality rates were higher in the climate change scenario because of increased overlap of adults and YOY of both species. These results indicate that accounting for spatiotemporal fish distribution patterns can be important when forecasting the interacting effects of climate change and aquatic invasive species on fish recruitment.

scholarly journals In situ observations show vertical community structure of pelagic fauna in the eastern tropical North Atlantic off Cape Verde

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. T. Hoving ◽  
P. Neitzel ◽  
H. Hauss ◽  
S. Christiansen ◽  
R. Kiko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Low Oxygen ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Tropical North Atlantic ◽  
Minimum Zone

AbstractDistribution patterns of fragile gelatinous fauna in the open ocean remain scarcely documented. Using epi-and mesopelagic video transects in the eastern tropical North Atlantic, which features a mild but intensifying midwater oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), we established one of the first regional observations of diversity and abundance of large gelatinous zooplankton. We quantified the day and night vertical distribution of 46 taxa in relation to environmental conditions. While distribution may be driven by multiple factors, abundance peaks of individual taxa were observed in the OMZ core, both above and below the OMZ, only above, or only below the OMZ whereas some taxa did not have an obvious distribution pattern. In the eastern eropical North Atlantic, OMZ expansion in the course of global climate change may detrimentally impact taxa that avoid low oxygen concentrations (Beroe, doliolids), but favour taxa that occur in the OMZ (Lilyopsis, phaeodarians, Cydippida, Colobonema, Haliscera conica and Halitrephes) as their habitat volume might increase. While future efforts need to focus on physiology and taxonomy of pelagic fauna in the study region, our study presents biodiversity and distribution data for the regional epi- and mesopelagic zones of Cape Verde providing a regional baseline to monitor how climate change may impact the largest habitat on the planet, the deep pelagic realm.

scholarly journals Species Distribution Modeling of Sassafras Tzumu and Implications for Forest Management

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keliang Zhang ◽  
Yin Zhang ◽  
Diwen Jia ◽  
Jun Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Deciduous Tree ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Rule Set ◽  
Present Distribution

Sassafras tzumu (Chinese sassafras) is an economically and ecologically important deciduous tree species. Over the past few decades, increasing market demands and unprecedented human activity in its natural habitat have created new threats to this species. Nonetheless, the distribution of its habitat and the crucial environmental parameters that determine the habitat suitability remain largely unclear. The present study modeled the current and future geographical distribution of S. tzumu by maximum entropy (MAXENT) and genetic algorithm for rule set prediction (GARP). The value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Kappa, and true skill statistic (TSS) of MAXENT was significantly higher than that of GARP, indicating that MAXENT performed better. Temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China where the species had been recorded was suitable for growth of S. tzumu. Relative humidity (26.2% of permutation importance), average temperature during the driest quarter (16.6%), annual precipitation (12.6%), and mean diurnal temperature range (10.3%) were identified as the primary factors that accounted for the present distribution of S. tzumu in China. Under the climate change scenario, both algorithms predicted that range of suitable habitat will expand geographically to northwest. Our results may be adopted for guiding the preservation of S. tzumu through identifying the habitats susceptible to climate change.

scholarly journals Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (17) ◽  
pp. 3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang ◽  
Jing ◽  
Li ◽  
Liu ◽  
Fang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Cinnamomum Camphora ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Resource Protection ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Rapid changes in global climate exert tremendous pressure on forest ecosystems. Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl is a multi-functional tree species, and its distribution and growth are also affected by climate warming. In order to realize its economic value and ecological function, it is necessary to explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats under different scenarios. In this experiment, 181 geographical distribution data were collected, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. To complete the simulation, we selected two greenhouse gas release scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and also three future time periods, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. The importance of environmental variables for modeling was evaluated by jackknife test. Our study found that accumulated temperature played a key role in the distribution of camphor trees. With the change of climate, the area of suitable range will increase and continue to move to the northwest of China. These findings could provide guidance for the plantation establishment and resource protection of camphor in China.

scholarly journals ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF PIONEER SPECIES FOR SECONDARY FOREST RESTORATION IN BENIN IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

2017 ◽  
Vol 332 ◽  
pp. 43-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Jaures Gbètoho ◽  
Augustin K. N. Aoudji ◽  
Lizanne Roxburgh ◽  
Jean C. Ganglo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Secondary Forests

In this study, species distribution model- ling (SDM) was applied to the manage- ment of secondary forests in Benin. This study aims at identifying suitable areas where the use of candidate pioneer spe- cies, such as Lonchocarpus sericeus and Anogeissus leiocarpa, could be targeted to ensure at low cost, currently and  in  the context of global climate change, fast reconstitution of secondary forests and disturbed ecosystems and the recovery  of their biodiversity. Using occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Infor- mation Facility (GBIF) website and cur- rent environmental data, the factors that affected the distribution of the species were assessed in West Africa. The models developed in MaxEnt and  R  software  for West Africa only, for both species, showed good predictive power with  AUC > 0.80 and AUC ratios well above 1.5. The results were projected in future climate at the horizon 2055, using AfriClim data under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 and suggested a little reduction in the range of L. seri- ceus and any variation for A. leiocarpa. The potential distribution of the two spe- cies indicated that they could be used for vegetation restoration activities both now and in the mid-21st century. Improve- ment are needed through the use of com- plementary data, the extension to others species and the assessment of uncertain- ties related to these predictions.

scholarly journals Adaptive diversity of beech seedlings under climate change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Varsamis ◽  
Aristotelis C Papageorgiou ◽  
Theodora Merou ◽  
Ioannis Takos ◽  
Chrisovalantis Malesios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seedling Survival ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Growth Chamber ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Adaptive Diversity

The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is crucial for the maintenance of economic and social benefits and for the conservation of biodiversity in Europe and especially in the southeastern part of the continent, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. Beech populations in the region cover multiple ecological conditions at a small geographical range and have a complex biogeographical background involving several postglacial lineages originating from distant or local refugia. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama), under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber and in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for three years, under two different irrigation schemes, a non-frequent (A1) and a frequent one (A2). Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were used as adaptive traits. The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, beech genotypes demonstrated an impressive phenotypic plasticity by changing the duration of their growing season allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Different populations and provenances were connected with different adaptation strategies, that relate mainly to the temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.

scholarly journals Climate change and plant diseases

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (spe) ◽  
pp. 98-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Ghini ◽  
Emília Hamada ◽  
Wagner Bettiol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Using Data

Human activities are altering greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and causing global climate change. In the near future, there will certainly be changes in the Brazilian phytosanitary scenario attributed to global climate change. The impacts of climate change can be positive, negative or neutral, since these changes can decrease, increase or have no impact on diseases, depending on each region or period. These impacts will also be observed on plants and other organisms as well as on other agroecosystem components. However, these impacts are not easily determined, and consequently, specialists from several areas must go beyond their disciplinary boundaries and placing the climate change impacts in a broader context. This review focuses on the discussion of different aspects related to the effects of climate change on plant diseases. On the geographical and temporal distribution of diseases, a historical context is presented and recent studies using data of forecast models of future climate associated with disease simulation models are discussed in order to predict the distribution in future climate scenarios. Predicted future disease scenarios for some crops in Brazil are shown. On the effects of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other gases, important aspects are discussed of how diseases change under altered atmospheric gases conditions in the future. The consequences of these changes on the chemical and biological control of plant diseases are also discussed.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Projected Climate Change on Zoo Visitation in Toronto (Canada)

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micah J. Hewer ◽  
William A. Gough
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Impact

Weather and climate have been widely recognised as having an important influence on tourism and recreational activities. However, the nature of these relationships varies depending on the type, timing and location of these activities. Climate change is expected to have considerable and diverse impacts on recreation and tourism. Nonetheless, the potential impact of climate change on zoo visitation has yet to be assessed in a scientific manner. This case study begins by establishing the baseline conditions and statistical relationship between weather and zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada. Regression analysis, relying on historical weather and visitation data, measured at the daily time scale, formed the basis for this analysis. Climate change projections relied on output produced by Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, ranked and selected using the herein defined Selective Ensemble Approach. This seasonal GCM output was then used to inform daily, local, climate change scenarios, generated using Statistical Down-Scaling Model Version 5.2. A series of seasonal models were then used to assess the impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation. While accounting for the negative effects of precipitation and extreme heat, the models suggested that annual visitation to the zoo will likely increase over the course of the 21st century due to projected climate change: from +8% in the 2020s to +18% by the 2080s, for the least change scenario; and from +8% in the 2020s to +34% in the 2080s, for the greatest change scenario. The majority of the positive impact of projected climate change on zoo visitation in Toronto will likely occur in the shoulder season (spring and fall); with only moderate increases in the off season (winter) and potentially negative impacts associated with the peak season (summer), especially if warming exceeds 3.5 °C.

scholarly journals Adaptive diversity of beech seedlings under climate change scenarios

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Varsamis ◽  
Aristotelis C Papageorgiou ◽  
Theodora Merou ◽  
Ioannis Takos ◽  
Chrisovalantis Malesios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seedling Survival ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Growth Chamber ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Adaptive Diversity

The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is crucial for the maintenance of economic and social benefits and for the conservation of biodiversity in Europe and especially in the southeastern part of the continent, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. Beech populations in the region cover multiple ecological conditions at a small geographical range and have a complex biogeographical background involving several postglacial lineages originating from distant or local refugia. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama), under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber and in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for three years, under two different irrigation schemes, a non-frequent (A1) and a frequent one (A2). Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were used as adaptive traits. The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, beech genotypes demonstrated an impressive phenotypic plasticity by changing the duration of their growing season allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Different populations and provenances were connected with different adaptation strategies, that relate mainly to the temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.

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