scholarly journals A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3635
Author(s):  
David Alaminos ◽  
Ana León-Gómez ◽  
José Ramón Sánchez-Serrano
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
External Effects ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Tourist Demand ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

This paper aims to provide a better basis for understanding the transmission connection between tourism development and sustainable economic growth in the empirical scenario of International countries. In this way, we have applied the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in different countries in order to check the power of generalization of this framework to study the tourism development. Also, we extend this model to obtain the long-term effects of tourism development with confidence intervals. The influence of tourism development on sustainable economic growth is proved by our results and show the indirect consequences between tourist activity and other industries produced through the external effects of investment and human capital and public sector. Our study confirms that the DSGE technique can be a generalized model for the analysis of tourism development and, especially, can improve previous precision results with the DSGE-VAR model, where vector autoregression (VAR) is introduced in the DSGE model. The simulation results reveal even more than when the productivity of the economy in general enhances, as the current tourist demand increases in greater proportion than more than the national tourism demand. For its part, the consumption of domestic tourism rises more than the consumption of inbound tourism if the productivity of the tourism production enhances, but non-tourism prices decrease at a slower rate and tourism investment needs a longer time to recover to what is established.

Macroeconomic Risks and Asset Pricing: Evidence from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 3585-3604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica X. N. Li ◽  
Haitao Li ◽  
Shujing Wang ◽  
Cindy Yu
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Risks

We study the relation between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset pricing through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We provide full-information Bayesian estimation of the DSGE model using macroeconomic variables and extract the time series of four latent fundamental shocks of the model: neutral technology shock, investment-specific technological shock, monetary policy shock, and risk shock. Asset pricing tests show that our model-implied four-factor model can explain a number of prominent cross-sectional return spreads: size, book-to-market, investment, earnings, and long-term reversal. The investment-specific technological shock and risk shock play the most important role in explaining those return spreads. This paper was accepted by Neng Wang, finance.

scholarly journals A NOTE ON AN EXTENSION OF A CLASS OF SOLUTIONS TO DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS ARISING IN ECONOMIC GROWTH

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 472-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Antony ◽  
Alfred Maußner
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
Dynamics And Control ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
And Control

This note extends the findings of Benhabib and Rusticchini [Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 18, 807–813 (1994)], who provide a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models whose solution is characterized by a constant savings rate. We show that this class of models may be interpreted as a standard–representative agent DSGE model with costly adjustment of capital.

2018 Nobel Economics Prize: Integrating Climate Change Measures into Sustainable Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thuc An ◽  
Dau Kieu Ngoc Anh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Endogenous Growth Theory ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The 2018 Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to two American economists - William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer - who designed methods for better assessing environmental issues and technological advances on growth. This year’s Laureates, Nordhaus was the first person to create an intergrated model to assess interactions between society and nature and Romer laid the foundation for what is now called endogenous growth theory. According to the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, these two macroeconomists’ research have helped “significantly broaden the scope of economic analysis by constructing models that explain how the market economy interacts with nature and knowledge” which integrates climate change measures into long-term sustainable economic growth. Keywords Nobel in economics, William D. Nordhaus, Paul M. Romer, climate change, endogenous growth theory, economic growth References [1] Y Vân (2018), “Lý lịch 'khủng' của hai nhà khoa học vừa giành giải Nobel Kinh tế 2018”, Vietnambiz, đăng tải ngày 08/10/2018, https://vietnambiz.vn/ly-lich-khung-cua-hai-nha-khoa-hoc-vua-gianh-giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-95776.html[2] Jonas O. Bergman, Rich Miller (2018), “Nordhaus, Romer Win Nobel for Thinking on Climate, Innovation”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/nordhaus-romer-win-2018-nobel-prize-in-economic-sciences [3] Antonin Pottier (2018), “Giải Nobel” William Nordhaus có thật sự nghiêm túc?”, Nguyễn Đôn Phước dịch, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/giai-nobel-william-nordhaus-co-that-su.html[4] Thăng Điệp (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018 về tay hai người Mỹ”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, http://vneconomy.vn/giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-ve-tay-hai-nguoi-my-20181008185809239.htm[5] Lars P. Syll (2018), “Cuối cùng - Paul Romer cũng có được giải thưởng Nobel”, Huỳnh Thiện Quốc Việt dịch, đăng tải ngày 14/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/cuoi-cung-paul-romer-cung-co-uoc-giai.html[6] Phương Võ (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế 2018: Chạm tới bài toán khó của thời đại”, đăng tải ngày 9/10/2018, https://nld.com.vn/thoi-su-quoc-te/nobel-kinh-te-2018-cham-toi-bai-toan-kho-cua-thoi-dai-20181008221734228.htm[7] Đông Phong (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế cho giải pháp phát triển bền vững và phúc lợi người dân”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://news.zing.vn/nobel-kinh-te-cho-giai-phap-phat-trien-ben-vung-va-phuc-loi-nguoi-dan-post882860.html[8] Thanh Trúc (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018: Thay đổi tư duy về biến đổi khí hậu”, https://tusach.thuvienkhoahoc.com/wiki/Gi%E1%BA%A3i_Nobel_kinh_t%E1%BA%BF_2018:_Thay_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_t%C6%B0_duy_v%E1%BB%81_bi%E1%BA%BFn_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_kh%C3%AD_h%E1%BA%ADu[9] Cẩm Anh (2018), “Nobel kinh tế 2018: Lời giải cho tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững”, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://enternews.vn/nobel-kinh-te-2018-loi-giai-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-ben-vung-137600.html.

Effects of tourism development on economic growth: An empirical study of China based on both static and dynamic spatial Durbin models

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110211
Author(s):  
Honghong Liu ◽  
Ye Xiao ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Dianting Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Spatial Spillover ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Spatial Spillover Effect

This study applies the dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) to explore the direct and spillover effects of tourism development on economic growth from the perspective of domestic and inbound tourism. The results are compared with those from the static SDM. The results support the tourism-led-economic-growth hypothesis in China. Specifically, domestic tourism and inbound tourism play a significant role in stimulating local economic growth. However, the spatial spillover effect is limited to domestic tourism, and the spatial spillover effect of inbound tourism is not significant. Furthermore, the long-term effects are much greater than the short-term impact for both domestic and inbound tourism. Plausible explanations of these results are provided and policy implications are drawn.

DEMOCRACY, ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: PROBLEMS OF INTERCONNECTION AND WAYS OF THEIR INCREASE IN UKRAINE

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Smahliuk ◽  
◽  
Tetiana Pokotylo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
Multiplier Effect ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
National Production ◽  
Level Of Knowledge ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The article explores the factors that allow the economies of the countries of the world to achieve sustainable economic growth at different stages of the country's economic development, depending on the level of GDP per capita. Among which are highlighted: basic factors, efficiency factors and innovative factors. For the Ukrainian economy, which is at the stage of focusing on efficiency, the issues of the place, significance and level of economic complexity of the Ukrainian economy and ensuring sustainable economic growth on this basis are considered. Economic diversification and complexity are defined as key drivers of long-term growth. The dynamics of the index of economic complexity in Ukraine is analyzed, modern trends are revealed. Directions and strategic approaches to the diversification of national production are proposed, which could have a significant multiplier effect, increase the complexity and level of knowledge in the economy. It also provides evidence on the relationship between socio-economic development, values of self-expression and democratic institutions. The conclusion is formulated: socio- economic development leads to the spread of the values of self-expression, and they, in turn, to the establishment and strengthening of democratic institutions.

scholarly journals Schumpeterian aspects of growth and its correlative classical and neoclassical approaches

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-117
Author(s):  
Sergio A. Berumen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Central Concept ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Capital Humano ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Economic Growth is a central concept in Economic Theory. Most of the modern societies regard growth as an important determinant for rising standards of living. Their effects can be observed not only in more goods and services but also in brand new processes. Investment in human capital is re-garded as the very source of long-term, sustainable Economic Growth. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief description of Economic Growth, how to approach its measurement, and to provide a brief review of the Schum-peterian thought and the main schools that have undertaken from the Classical and Neoclassical Approaches. Key Words: Economic Growth; Schumpeterian Thought; Classical and Neo-classical Approaches. JEL Classification: B12, B13, B52, O43, O49. Resumen: El crecimiento económico es un concepto fundamental de la teoría económica. La mayoría de las sociedades modernas consideran el crecimiento como una determinante importante para el incremento de los niveles de vida. Sus efectos se pueden observar en el aumento de bienes y servicios, pero también en la disponibilidad de nuevos procesos. En este escenario, la inver-sión en capital humano es, de hecho, la fuente original del crecimiento económico a largo plazo y de manera sostenible. El objetivo del presente trabajo consiste en explorar los principales rudimentos del crecimiento económico, de su preceptiva medición y de mostrar las aportaciones originales alcanzadas desde el Pensamiento Schumpeteriano, así como de su contrastación con las perspectivas Clásicas y Neoclásicas. Palabras clave: Crecimiento económico; Pensamiento Schumpeteriano; aproxi-maciones Clásica y Neoclásica.

scholarly journals The effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL investigation

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0248743
Author(s):  
Md Mazharul Islam ◽  
Majed Alharthi ◽  
Md Wahid Murad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unemployment Problem

Objective While macroeconomic and environmental events affect the overall economic performance of nations, there has not been much research on the effects of important macroeconomic and environmental variables and how these can influence progress. Saudi Arabia’s economy relies heavily on its vast reserves of petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, gold, and copper, but its economic growth trajectory has been uneven since the 1990s. This study examines the effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Methods Annual time series dataset covering the period 1990–2019 has been extracted from the World Bank and General Authority of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Saudi Arabia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration has served to investigate the long-run relationships among the variables. Several time-series diagnostic tests have been conducted on the long-term ARDL model to check its robustness. Results Saudi Arabia can still achieve higher economic growth without effectively addressing its unemployment problem as both the variables are found to be highly significantly but positively cointegrated in the long-run ARDL model. While the variable of carbon emissions demonstrated a negative effect on the nation’s economic growth, the variables of rainfall and temperate were to some extent cointegrated into the nation’s economic growth in negative and positive ways, respectively. Like most other nations the short-run effects of inflation and population on economic growth do vary, but their long-term effects on the same are found to be positive. Conclusions Saudi Arabia can achieve both higher economic growth and lower carbon emissions simultaneously even without effectively addressing the unemployment problem. The nation should utilize modern scientific technologies to annual rainfall losses and to reduce annual temperature in some parts of the country in order to achieve higher economic growth.

scholarly journals Decision between Public Investment and Public Consumption: A Policy Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol V (I) ◽  
pp. 131-152
Author(s):  
Muhammad Raashid ◽  
Abdul Saboor ◽  
Aneela Afzal
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Best Fit

This study aims to draw a policy decision between public investment and public consumption by designing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the economy of Pakistan which is experiencing persistent shocks that have stressed the growth pattern. The DSGE model has a microeconomic foundation and justifies locus critics by envisioning an artificial economy. The model is evaluated and set to best fit for data through an exercise of moment matching. Government consumption shocks and Government Investment shocks are used to trace out the behaviour of the economy. The analysis confirms that Pakistan economy could go for capital formation through public investment but it results in compromised public consumption and structural unemployment. It is further concluded that the export base and long-run public investment programs are needed to achieve sustainable development in the economy.

Modelling Monetary Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 293-316
Author(s):  
Juan Antonio Morales ◽  
Paul Reding
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Policy Decision Making

This last chapter deals with the toolbox that central banks use to design and implement their monetary policy strategy. Central banks develop various types of model, both for forecasting and for policy analysis. The chapter discusses the main characteristics of the models used, their strengths and limitations. It assesses how dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are used for monetary policy analysis. Examples are provided on how they contribute to explore fundamental, long-term policy issues specific to LFDCs. The chapter also discusses the contribution of small semi-structural models which, though less strongly theory grounded than DSGE models, can be brought closer to the available data and are therefore possibly better suited to the context of LFDCs. Attention is also drawn to the key role of judgement as the indispensable complement, in monetary policy decision-making, to model-based policy analysis.

ASSET PRICING IN DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS WITH INDETERMINACY

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
NATALIA GERSHUN ◽  
SHARON G. HARRISON
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Returns To Scale ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Increasing Returns ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Increasing Returns To Scale ◽  
Local Indeterminacy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The One

We explore asset pricing in the context of the one-sector Benhabib-Farmer-Guo (BFG) model with increasing returns to scale in production and compare our results with financial implications of the standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Our main goal is to determine the effects of local indeterminacy and the presence of sunspot shocks on asset pricing. We find that the BFG model does not adequately represent key stylized facts of U.S. capital markets and does not improve on the asset-pricing results obtained in the standard DSGE model.

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