scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Chemical Plant Explosion Accidents Based on Bayesian Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongchen Zhu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Deshui Hu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Chemical Plant ◽  
Equipment Safety ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Property Loss ◽  
Personnel Safety ◽  
Explosion Accidents ◽  
The Impact

Many chemical plant explosion accidents occur along with the development of the chemical industry. Meanwhile, the interaction and influence of various factors significantly increase the uncertainty of the evolution process of such accidents. This paper presents a framework to dynamically evaluate chemical plant explosion accidents. We propose twelve nodes to represent accident evolution and establish a Bayesian network model for chemical plant explosion accidents, combining historical data with expert experience to support the prevention, management, and real-time warning. Hypothetical scenarios and catastrophic explosion scenarios were analyzed by setting different combinations of states for nodes. Moreover, the impacts of factors such as factory type, material form, accident equipment, the emergency response on casualty and property loss are evaluated. We find that sensitivity of property loss and casualties to factory type and ongoing work are less significant; the equipment factors result in more casualties than that from personnel factors; the impact of emergency response on the accident results is significant; equipment safety management and personnel safety training are the most important measures to prevent chemical plant explosion risks.

scholarly journals Bayesian Network-Based Risk Analysis of Chemical Plant Explosion Accidents

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 5364
Author(s):  
Yunmeng Lu ◽  
Tiantian Wang ◽  
Tiezhong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Intersection Theory ◽  
Chemical Plant ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Index Matrix ◽  
Unsafe Behaviors ◽  
Explosion Accidents ◽  
The Impact

The chemical industry has made great contributions to the national economy, but frequent chemical plant explosion accidents (CPEAs) have also caused heavy property losses and casualties, as the CPEA is the result of interaction of many related risk factors, leading to uncertainty in the evolution of the accident. To systematically excavate and analyze the underlying causes of accidents, this paper first integrates emergency elements in the frame of orbit intersection theory and proposes 14 nodes to represent the evolution path of the accident. Then, combined with historical data and expert experience, a Bayesian network (BN) model of CPEAs was established. Through scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis, the interaction between factors and the impact of the factors on accident consequences was evaluated. It is found that the direct factors have the most obvious influence on the accident consequences, and the unsafe conditions contribute more than the unsafe behaviors. Furthermore, considering the factor chain, the management factors, especially safety education and training, are the key link of the accident that affects unsafe behaviors and unsafe conditions. Moreover, effective government emergency response has played a more prominent role in controlling environmental pollution. In addition, the complex network relationship between elements is presented in a sensitivity index matrix, and we extracted three important risk transmission paths from it. The research provides support for enterprises to formulate comprehensive safety production management strategies and control key factors in the risk transmission path to reduce CPEA risks.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Urban Dirty Bomb Attacking Based on Bayesian Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Tang ◽  
Yijia Li ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Huanggang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Occurrence Time ◽  
Dirty Bomb ◽  
Urban Security ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Special Time ◽  
Attack Location ◽  
Security Check

Urban dirty bomb attacking is a type of unconventional terrorism threatening the urban security all through the world. In this paper, a Bayesian network of urban dirty bomb attacking is established to analyze the risk of urban dirty bomb attacking. The impacts of factors such as occurrence time, location, wind fields, the size of dirty bomb, emergency response and defense approaches on casualty from both direct blast and radiation-caused cancers are examined. Results show that sensitivity of casualty from cancers to wind fields are less significant; the impact of emergency response on the direct casualty from blast is not large; the size of the dirty bomb results in more casualties from cancers than that from bomb explosions; Whether an attack is detected by the police is not that related to normal or special time, but significantly depends on the attack location; Furthermore, casualty from cancers significantly depends on the location, while casualty from blast is not considerably influenced by the attacking location; patrol and surveillance are less important than security check in terms of controlling the risk of urban dirt bomb, and security check is the most effective approach to decreasing the risk of urban dirty bomb.

scholarly journals Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongchen Zhu ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Han Ye ◽  
Nan Jia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Toxic Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Chemical Terrorism ◽  
The Impact

The chemical terrorist attack is an unconventional form of terrorism with vast scope of influence, strong concealment, high technical means and severe consequences. Chemical terrorism risk refers to the uncertainty of the effects of terrorist organisations using toxic industrial chemicals/drugs and classic chemical weapons to attack the population. There are multiple risk factors infecting chemical terrorism risk, such as the threat degree of terrorist organisations, attraction of targets, city emergency response capabilities, and police defense capabilities. We have constructed a Bayesian network of chemical terrorist attacks to conduct risk analysis. The scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are applied to validate the model and analyse the impact of the vital factor on the risk of chemical terrorist attacks. The results show that the model can be used for simulation and risk analysis of chemical terrorist attacks. In terms of controlling the risk of chemical terrorist attack, patrol and surveillance are less critical than security checks and police investigations. Security check is the most effective approach to decrease the probability of successful attacks. Different terrorist organisations have different degrees of threat, but the impacts of which are limited to the success of the attack. Weapon types and doses are sensitive to casualties, but it is the level of emergency response capabilities that dominates the changes in casualties. Due to the limited number of defensive resources, to get the best consequence, the priority of the deployment of defensive sources should be firstly given to governmental buildings, followed by commercial areas. These findings may provide the theoretical basis and method support for the combat of the public security department and the safety prevention decision of the risk management department.

scholarly journals Analysis of Explosion Accidents in a Chemical Plant using STAMP, a Systematic Cause-and-effect Analysis Technique

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Chae-Chil Koo ◽  
Dong-Hyun Seo ◽  
Pil-Hyeok Lee
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Chemical Plant ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Chemical Plants ◽  
Industrial Accidents ◽  
Sequential Approach ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Explosion Accidents ◽  
Social And Cultural Factors

The process safety management system for chemical plants was introduced approximately 25 years ago. With the improvement in the safety management levels for the safe operation of the chemical plants, the number of serious industrial accidents has gradually decreased; however, increased damages have been observed when accidents do occur. The cause of accidents has also increased in cases where several factors, including social and cultural factors, are complexly related, in addition to facility and human factors. The need for an overall integrated systemic approach related to society, technology, and organization, and a sequential approach for finding the direct cause of accidents, is growing while analyzing the accidents. For this reason, foreign countries have introduced and applied a method to analyze accidents in an integrated manner from a systemic point of view; however, reports of cases or research results used in Korea. In this study, the case of explosion accidents, which occurred during a trial operation at a domestic chemical plant, was analyzed using Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes, a systematic accident analysis technique, to reveal the primary cause, organizational, and operational problems, so that it can be used for future investigations when other accidents occur.

scholarly journals Impact Mechanism of the Ecological Vulnerability of Highly Developed Islands Based on the Bayesian Network Model—Applied to the Changshan Islands

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4150
Author(s):  
Keyu Qin ◽  
Haijun Huang ◽  
Jingya Liu ◽  
Liwen Yan ◽  
Yanxia Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Island Ecosystems ◽  
Impact Mechanism ◽  
The North ◽  
Ecological Vulnerability ◽  
The Impact

Islands are one of the most sensitive interfaces between global changes and land and sea dynamic effects, with high sensitivity and low stability. Therefore, under the dynamic coupling effect of human activities and frequent natural disasters, the vulnerability of the ecological environment of islands shows the characteristics of complexity and diversity. For the protection of island ecosystems, a system for the assessment of island ecosystems and studies on the mechanism of island ecological vulnerability are highly crucial. In this study, the North and South Changshan Islands of China were selected as the study area. Considering various impact factors of island ecological vulnerability, the geographical information systems (GIS) spatial analysis, field surveys, data sampling were used to evaluate island ecological vulnerability. The Bayesian network model was used to explore the impact mechanism of ecological vulnerability. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of the North Changshan Island is higher than that of the South Changshan Island. Among all the indicators, the proportion of net primary productivity (NPP) and the steep slope has the strongest correlation with ecological vulnerability. This study can be used as references in the relevant departments to formulate management policies and promote the sustainable development of islands and their surrounding waters

scholarly journals Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Heat-Affected Zone of Repeated Welding AISI 304N Austenitic Stainless Steel by Gleeble Simulator

Metals ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 773
Author(s):  
Y.H. Guo ◽  
Li Lin ◽  
Donghui Zhang ◽  
Lili Liu ◽  
M.K. Lei
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Stainless Steel ◽  
Austenitic Stainless Steel ◽  
Impact Energy ◽  
Heat Affected Zone ◽  
Ferrite Content ◽  
Equipment Safety ◽  
Microstructure And Mechanical Properties ◽  
Δ Ferrite ◽  
The Impact

Heat-affected zone (HAZ) of welding joints critical to the equipment safety service are commonly repeatedly welded in industries. Thus, the effects of repeated welding up to six times on the microstructure and mechanical properties of HAZ for AISI 304N austenitic stainless steel specimens were investigated by a Gleeble simulator. The temperature field of HAZ was measured by in situ thermocouples. The as-welded and one to five times repeated welding were assigned as-welded (AW) and repeated welding 1–5 times (RW1–RW5), respectively. The austenitic matrices with the δ-ferrite were observed in all specimens by the metallography. The δ-ferrite content was also determined using magnetic and metallography methods. The δ-ferrite had a lathy structure with a content of 0.69–3.13 vol.%. The austenitic grains were equiaxial with an average size of 41.4–47.3 μm. The ultimate tensile strength (UTS) and yield strength (YS) mainly depended on the δ-ferrite content; otherwise, the impact energy mainly depended on both the austenitic grain size and the δ-ferrite content. The UTS of the RW1–RW3 specimens was above 550 MPa following the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) standard. The impact energy of all specimens was higher than that in ASME standard at about 56 J. The repeated welding up to three times could still meet the requirements for strength and toughness of welding specifications.

Numerical Simulation of Heat Transfer Mechanisms in Spray Cooling

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eelco Gehring ◽  
Mario F. Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Heated Surface ◽  
Spray Cooling ◽  
Impingement Zone ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Efficient Suppression ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Cooling Behavior ◽  
Free Surface Capturing ◽  
The Impact

A primary mechanism of heat transfer in spray cooling is the impingement of numerous droplets onto a heated surface. This mechanism is isolated in the present and ongoing work by numerically simulating the impact of a single train of FC-72 droplets employing an implicit free surface capturing methodology. The droplet frequency and velocity ranges from 2000–4000 Hz, and 0.5–2 m/s, respectively, with a fixed drop size of 239 μm. This gives a corresponding Weber and Reynolds range of 10–170 and 330–1300, respectively. Results show that the impingement zone is largely free of phase change effects due to the efficient suppression of the local temperature field well below the saturated value. Due in part to the relatively high value of the Prandtl number and the compression of the boundary layer from the impingement flow, a cell size on the order of 1 μm is necessary to adequately capture the heat transfer dynamics. It is shown that the cooling behavior increases in relation to increasing frequency and impact velocity, but is most sensitive to velocity. In fact, for sufficiently low velocities the calculations show that the momentum imparted on the film is insufficient to maintain a near stationary liquid crown. The consequence is a noticeable penalty on the cooling behavior.

An industry perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Taylor ◽  
Jean Pierre Garat ◽  
Samer Simreen ◽  
Ghida Sarieddine
Keyword(s):  
Food Safety ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Safety Culture ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Roles And Responsibilities ◽  
Management Standards ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Safety Culture

Purpose – This paper aims to outline the food safety roles and responsibilities within the industry that play an important role in the success of government initiatives, demonstrated using a new model of Food Safety Culture Excellence. It is the sixth article in a Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes theme issue presenting a comprehensive government strategy for improving food safety management standards across the hospitality industry. Design/methodology/approach – A case study is used to demonstrate the impact of auditing the 16 dimensions of Food Safety Culture Excellence in practice. The business selected was the first in Abu Dhabi to achieve regulatory compliance for HACCP-based food safety management, and the first to conduct a Food Safety Culture Excellence audit in the United Arab Emirates. Findings – This article demonstrates how the concept of food safety culture works in practice, using the Food Safety Culture Excellence Model with four categories and 16 dimensions. It demonstrates how the auditing of culture within a business can highlight strengths and weaknesses and facilitate continual improvement. Originality/value – The article represents the first published model of Food Safety Culture Excellence, an extensively researched and tested model developed by Taylor Shannon International Ltd. and launched in conjunction with Campden BRI in 2014. It also demonstrates the first audit of the model in practice.

Environmental Safety and Health Issues Relating to Hazardous Wastes Generated by Chemical Industries

2013 ◽  
Vol 448-453 ◽  
pp. 209-212
Author(s):  
Bo Tuo Jiang ◽  
Yan Qiang Jia ◽  
Xiao Long Xing ◽  
Xu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Chemical Safety ◽  
Safety And Health ◽  
Increase Food Production ◽  
Property Loss

The importance of chemical products in todays society is known, which can increase food production, improve the quality of life and extend the lifespan. However, their dangers are also obvious. In addition, a large number of chemical accidents, that produce chemicals, continue to take place in the chemical industries in spite of the great improvement in the safety management standard of worldwide chemical industries. Such accidents are taking place not only in the developing countries, but also in developed countries, which result in a lot of property loss, death and serious environmental issues with long term negative effects. Therefore, how to live with these substances and how to handle, use and dispose them safely have attracted much attention because chemical safety and risk management of chemicals have formed an international challenge.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document