scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Urban Dirty Bomb Attacking Based on Bayesian Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Tang ◽  
Yijia Li ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Huanggang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Occurrence Time ◽  
Dirty Bomb ◽  
Urban Security ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Special Time ◽  
Attack Location ◽  
Security Check

Urban dirty bomb attacking is a type of unconventional terrorism threatening the urban security all through the world. In this paper, a Bayesian network of urban dirty bomb attacking is established to analyze the risk of urban dirty bomb attacking. The impacts of factors such as occurrence time, location, wind fields, the size of dirty bomb, emergency response and defense approaches on casualty from both direct blast and radiation-caused cancers are examined. Results show that sensitivity of casualty from cancers to wind fields are less significant; the impact of emergency response on the direct casualty from blast is not large; the size of the dirty bomb results in more casualties from cancers than that from bomb explosions; Whether an attack is detected by the police is not that related to normal or special time, but significantly depends on the attack location; Furthermore, casualty from cancers significantly depends on the location, while casualty from blast is not considerably influenced by the attacking location; patrol and surveillance are less important than security check in terms of controlling the risk of urban dirt bomb, and security check is the most effective approach to decreasing the risk of urban dirty bomb.

The impact of ensemble meteorology on volcano emission estimates and ash dispersion forecasts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Harvey ◽  
Helen Dacre ◽  
Helen Webster
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Ash Dispersion ◽  
Emission Modelling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

<p>In the event of a volcanic eruption airlines need to make fast decisions about which routes are safe to operate and to ensure airborne aircraft land safely.  Currently these high-impact decisions are based on qualitative forecasts produced without any indication of uncertainty. Two of the largest sources of uncertainty in forecasting ash cloud location and concentration are the emissions of ash from the volcano and the meteorological situation. This study extends the UK Met Office <span>Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling (InTEM) system to use an ensemble of meteorological conditions to investigate the dependence of emission estimates on wind field and wet deposition uncertainty. </span>In the case of the 2011 Grimsvotn eruption, preliminary work shows that the impact of the variability of the ensemble wind fields is greater than that of the variability in the wet deposition. The next steps in this research are to quantify the improvement in the forecasts of ash location due to this ensemble approach and to develop an operational methodology that can be applied in a real-time emergency response situation.</p>

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Chemical Plant Explosion Accidents Based on Bayesian Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongchen Zhu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Deshui Hu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Chemical Plant ◽  
Equipment Safety ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Property Loss ◽  
Personnel Safety ◽  
Explosion Accidents ◽  
The Impact

Many chemical plant explosion accidents occur along with the development of the chemical industry. Meanwhile, the interaction and influence of various factors significantly increase the uncertainty of the evolution process of such accidents. This paper presents a framework to dynamically evaluate chemical plant explosion accidents. We propose twelve nodes to represent accident evolution and establish a Bayesian network model for chemical plant explosion accidents, combining historical data with expert experience to support the prevention, management, and real-time warning. Hypothetical scenarios and catastrophic explosion scenarios were analyzed by setting different combinations of states for nodes. Moreover, the impacts of factors such as factory type, material form, accident equipment, the emergency response on casualty and property loss are evaluated. We find that sensitivity of property loss and casualties to factory type and ongoing work are less significant; the equipment factors result in more casualties than that from personnel factors; the impact of emergency response on the accident results is significant; equipment safety management and personnel safety training are the most important measures to prevent chemical plant explosion risks.

scholarly journals Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongchen Zhu ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Han Ye ◽  
Nan Jia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Toxic Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Chemical Terrorism ◽  
The Impact

The chemical terrorist attack is an unconventional form of terrorism with vast scope of influence, strong concealment, high technical means and severe consequences. Chemical terrorism risk refers to the uncertainty of the effects of terrorist organisations using toxic industrial chemicals/drugs and classic chemical weapons to attack the population. There are multiple risk factors infecting chemical terrorism risk, such as the threat degree of terrorist organisations, attraction of targets, city emergency response capabilities, and police defense capabilities. We have constructed a Bayesian network of chemical terrorist attacks to conduct risk analysis. The scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are applied to validate the model and analyse the impact of the vital factor on the risk of chemical terrorist attacks. The results show that the model can be used for simulation and risk analysis of chemical terrorist attacks. In terms of controlling the risk of chemical terrorist attack, patrol and surveillance are less critical than security checks and police investigations. Security check is the most effective approach to decrease the probability of successful attacks. Different terrorist organisations have different degrees of threat, but the impacts of which are limited to the success of the attack. Weapon types and doses are sensitive to casualties, but it is the level of emergency response capabilities that dominates the changes in casualties. Due to the limited number of defensive resources, to get the best consequence, the priority of the deployment of defensive sources should be firstly given to governmental buildings, followed by commercial areas. These findings may provide the theoretical basis and method support for the combat of the public security department and the safety prevention decision of the risk management department.

scholarly journals Impact Mechanism of the Ecological Vulnerability of Highly Developed Islands Based on the Bayesian Network Model—Applied to the Changshan Islands

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4150
Author(s):  
Keyu Qin ◽  
Haijun Huang ◽  
Jingya Liu ◽  
Liwen Yan ◽  
Yanxia Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Island Ecosystems ◽  
Impact Mechanism ◽  
The North ◽  
Ecological Vulnerability ◽  
The Impact

Islands are one of the most sensitive interfaces between global changes and land and sea dynamic effects, with high sensitivity and low stability. Therefore, under the dynamic coupling effect of human activities and frequent natural disasters, the vulnerability of the ecological environment of islands shows the characteristics of complexity and diversity. For the protection of island ecosystems, a system for the assessment of island ecosystems and studies on the mechanism of island ecological vulnerability are highly crucial. In this study, the North and South Changshan Islands of China were selected as the study area. Considering various impact factors of island ecological vulnerability, the geographical information systems (GIS) spatial analysis, field surveys, data sampling were used to evaluate island ecological vulnerability. The Bayesian network model was used to explore the impact mechanism of ecological vulnerability. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of the North Changshan Island is higher than that of the South Changshan Island. Among all the indicators, the proportion of net primary productivity (NPP) and the steep slope has the strongest correlation with ecological vulnerability. This study can be used as references in the relevant departments to formulate management policies and promote the sustainable development of islands and their surrounding waters

scholarly journals Gaseous chemistry and aerosol mechanism developments for version 3.5.1 of the online regional model, WRF-Chem

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 2557-2579 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Archer-Nicholls ◽  
D. Lowe ◽  
S. Utembe ◽  
J. Allan ◽  
R. A. Zaveri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gas Phase ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Sea Spray ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Sea Spray Aerosol ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Phase Chemical

Abstract. We have made a number of developments to the Weather, Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), with the aim of improving model prediction of trace atmospheric gas-phase chemical and aerosol composition, and of interactions between air quality and weather. A reduced form of the Common Reactive Intermediates gas-phase chemical mechanism (CRIv2-R5) has been added, using the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP) interface, to enable more explicit simulation of VOC degradation. N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry has been added to the existing sectional MOSAIC aerosol module, and coupled to both the CRIv2-R5 and existing CBM-Z gas-phase schemes. Modifications have also been made to the sea-spray aerosol emission representation, allowing the inclusion of primary organic material in sea-spray aerosol. We have worked on the European domain, with a particular focus on making the model suitable for the study of nighttime chemistry and oxidation by the nitrate radical in the UK atmosphere. Driven by appropriate emissions, wind fields and chemical boundary conditions, implementation of the different developments are illustrated, using a modified version of WRF-Chem 3.4.1, in order to demonstrate the impact that these changes have in the Northwest European domain. These developments are publicly available in WRF-Chem from version 3.5.1 onwards.

The Evolution Model of Emergency Response System for Sudden Accidents of Construction Projects

2012 ◽  
Vol 226-228 ◽  
pp. 2253-2257
Author(s):  
Ren Hui Liu ◽  
Bo Yu
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Nonlinear Differential Equations ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Emergency Response System ◽  
Response System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Emergency System

It is a nonlinear complex system for project emergency response system, that is a continuous process for the evolution of emergency construction project development process. The nonlinear differential equations that can describe the sudden emergency construction project the evolution of mathematical models. Emergency system by Logistic model was modified, taking into account the development of emergency systems will certainly be outside the system during the impact, combined with the project incidents of law principles of the role of Heinrich proposed TS-based emergency response system evolution equation Model, demonstrated the system at different stages of the emergency rules and features. For the emergency system in which the different stages of development, the corresponding measures to improve emergency response capabilities.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Integrated Community-Based Management of Severe Wasting Programs in Conflict-Stricken South Sudan: A Multi-Dimensional Approach to Scalability of Nutrition Emergency Response Programs

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 9113
Author(s):  
Andre M. N. Renzaho ◽  
Gilbert Dachi ◽  
Kibrom Tesfaselassie ◽  
Kiross Tefera Abebe ◽  
Ismail Kassim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Program Implementation ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Emergency Preparedness ◽  
Quality Care ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Community Based ◽  
The Impact

Community-based management of severe wasting (CMSW) programs have solely focused on exit outcome indicators, often omitting data on nutrition emergency preparedness and scalability. This study aimed to document good practices and generate evidence on the effectiveness and scalability of CMSW programs to guide future nutrition interventions in South Sudan. A total of 69 CMSW program implementation documents and policies were authenticated and retained for analysis, complemented with the analyses of aggregated secondary data obtained over five (2016–2020 for CMSW program performance) to six (wasting prevention) years (2014–2019). Findings suggest a strong and harmonised coordination of CMSW program implementation, facilitated timely and with quality care through an integrated and harmonised multi-agency and multidisciplinary approach. There were challenges to the institutionalisation and ownership of CMSW programs: a weak health system, fragile health budget that relied on external assistance, and limited opportunities for competency-based learning and knowledge transfer. Between 2014 and 2019, the prevalence of wasting fluctuated according to the agricultural cycle and remained above the emergency threshold of 15% during the July to August lean season. However, during the same period, under-five and crude mortality rates (10,000/day) declined respectively from 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91, 1.43) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.75, 1.25) to 0.57 (95% CI: 0.38, 0.76) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.70). Both indicators remained below the emergency thresholds, hence suggesting that the emergency response was under control. Over a five-year period (2016–2020), a total of 1,105,546 children (52% girls, 48% boys) were admitted to CMSW programs. The five-year pooled performance indicators (mean [standard deviations]) was 86.4 (18.9%) for recovery, 2.1 (7.8%) for deaths, 5.2 (10.3%) for defaulting, 1.7 (5.7%) for non-recovery, 4.6 (13.5%) for medical transfers, 2.2 (4.7%) for relapse, 3.3 (15.0) g/kg/day for weight gain velocity, and 6.7 (3.7) weeks for the length of stay in the program. In conclusion, all key performance indicators, except the weight gain velocity, met or exceeded the Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response. Our findings demonstrate the possibility of implementing robust and resilient CMSAM programs in protracted conflict environments, informed by global guidelines and protocols. They also depict challenges to institutionalisation and ownership.

Impacts of Assimilating Measurements of Different State Variables with a Simulated Supercell Storm and Three-Dimensional Variational Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (8) ◽  
pp. 2759-2777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqing Ge ◽  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analysis Quality

Abstract This paper investigates the impacts of assimilating measurements of different state variables, which can be potentially available from various observational platforms, on the cycled analysis and short-range forecast of supercell thunderstorms by performing a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using a storm-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) method. The control experiments assimilate measurements every 5 min for 90 min. It is found that the assimilation of horizontal wind can reconstruct the storm structure rather accurately. The assimilation of vertical velocity , potential temperature , or water vapor can partially rebuild the thermodynamic and precipitation fields but poorly retrieves the wind fields. The assimilation of rainwater mixing ratio can build up the precipitation fields together with a reasonable cold pool but is unable to properly recover the wind fields. Overall, data have the greatest impact, while have the second largest impact. The impact of is the smallest. The impact of assimilation frequency is examined by comparing results using 1-, 5-, or 10-min assimilation intervals. When is assimilated every 5 or 10 min, the analysis quality can be further improved by the incorporation of additional types of observations. When are assimilated every minute, the benefit from additional types of observations is negligible, except for . It is also found that for , , and measurements, more frequent assimilation leads to more accurate analyses. For and , a 1-min assimilation interval does not produce a better analysis than a 5-min interval.

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