scholarly journals Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo ◽  
Ding ◽  
Zhong ◽  
Cheng ◽  
Huang
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Population ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Population Development ◽  
Development Environment ◽  
National Population ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Population

：A precise multi-scenario prediction of future population, based on micro-scale census data and localized interpretation of global scenarios, is significant for understanding long-term demographic changes. However, the data used in previous research need to be further refined. Few studies have focused on predicting the sex ratio at birth, which is vitally important for estimating the future size and structure of the population. It is also important to interpret and set parameters for China's future population development in line with the framework for global shared socioeconomic pathways. This paper, therefore, used the structural population data for provinces, prefectures, and counties from the Sixth National Population Census of China. It comprehensively considered the impact of China’s economic development level, specific population policies, and loss of an only child on key parameters, and localized the population change parameters for different scenarios. A population–development–environment model was used to explain the population change parameters. The population of 340 districts was refined, forecast, and aggregated to the national scale. The results show that the Chinese population is expected to first increase then decrease under the five paths from 2010 to 2050. The aging demographic structure is not reversed under any paths, and the increase or decrease in the urban and rural populations between adjacent node years is closely related to the fertility rate and urbanization speed. We suggest that measures should be taken to encourage childbearing, manage the aging population problem, and reduce the pressure on young and middle-aged people.

scholarly journals Which Residential Clusters of Walkability Affect Future Population from the Perspective of Real Estate Prices in the Osaka Metropolitan Area?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 13413
Author(s):  
Haruka Kato ◽  
Atsushi Takizawa
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Walkability Index ◽  
The Future ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Population

In Japan, where the population is declining and aging significantly, walkability has attracted attention as a way to improve residents’ lifestyles. Therefore, it is essential to identify the residential clusters where walkability improvement would contribute to the maintenance of the population in order to select urban areas for the implementation of walkable designs. This study aimed to identify the residential clusters in which walkability affects the future population from the perspective of real estate prices. The reason for focusing on real estate prices is that they are expected to be a confounding factor connecting walkability and the future population. The method we used was to analyze the structural equation modeling of the impact of walkability index, real estate prices, and future population change ratio. This analysis was based on the neighborhood association scale. This study clarified that effective residential clusters are the business center cluster and the sprawl cluster. In the business center cluster and the sprawl cluster, the price of apartments for sale is the real estate value, through which the walkability index positively impacts the future population change ratio. This means that it is expected to contribute to the maintenance of the future population through a combination of walkable designs and housing policies that encourage people to change their residence types to apartments for sale when rebuilding old building stock using the location optimization plan policy.

scholarly journals White Flight and Central-City Loss: Application of an Analytic Migration Framework

1979 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
W H Frey
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Central City ◽  
Community Level ◽  
White Flight ◽  
White Population ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Central Cities ◽  
City Population ◽  
The Impact

This paper utilizes an analytic migration framework to assess the aggregate impact of selected community-level factors on white population losses experienced in central cities of large metropolitan areas. The framework identifies analytically distinct components of local and long-distance migration streams which contribute directly to central-city population change. Each component can be specified as a function of community-level attributes which are relevant to the explanation of specific in- and out-movement streams. In this application, previously advanced racial and nonracial attributes of central cities and their surrounding suburbs are used to estimate framework components based on 1970 census data for white movement streams associated with the central cities of large SMSAs. These estimates are then used to ascertain the impact that the central-city racial composition exerts on net white out-migration from selected cities. The data demonstrate that the aggregate impact of racially linked ‘white flight’ has been minimal.

scholarly journals How Does the Location of Urban Facilities Affect the Forecasted Population Change in the Osaka Metropolitan Fringe Area?

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Haruka Kato
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Public Housing ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
New Town ◽  
Location Optimization ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Population

This study aims to clarify the statistical causal relationship between the locations of urban facilities and forecasted population changes according to types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan Fringe areas. This paper’s background is the location optimization plan policy formulated by the Japanese MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in 2015. The methods combined urban ecological analysis, cohort analysis, and Bayesian network analysis. Using the Bayesian network analysis, the causal relationship between the forecasted population change ratio and the urban facility location was analyzed. The results suggest the location of urban facilities for each residential cluster that will prevent a rapid population decline in the future. Specifically, in the sprawl cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to medical facilities will sustain the future population, while in the old new-town cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to train stations will best sustain the future population. However, in the public housing cluster, residential areas more distant from regional resources will best sustain the future population. Therefore, it is worth considering different urban designs in the old new-town and public housing clusters, rather than the location optimization plan policy.

scholarly journals Demogeographic Analysis To Support the Optimum Realization of the Strategy of Regional Development in the Administrative District of Municipality of Valašské Meziříčí

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 1311-1323
Author(s):  
Vendula Drápelová ◽  
Nahanga Verter ◽  
Dana Hübelová
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Community Services ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Administrative District ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Population

Regional development represents the society efforts geared towards reducing regional disparities, optimizing the development and mitigating any social problems. People play a highly significant role that triggers certain demographic development and spatial specifics of demographic indicators, in particular, and regional development, in general. Against this backdrop, this article assesses some demographic indicators in the municipality of Valašské Meziříčí. The results from the statistical analysis of spatial and temporal series show that the administrative district of the municipality of Valašské Meziříčí demonstrated (micro) regional differences and outlined the future population change. The identified adverse effects include: the declining of the population in the administrative headquarters; distinctive dynamics of aging and the low level of economic activity in certain municipalities; underdevelopment of community services; and distribution of the age structure of the disproportion between the peripheral facilities and administrative headquarters. There is an urgent need for policy decisions that could avert the unfavorable development of some demographic indicators (economic and social) in the future.

scholarly journals Exploring the Future Population and Educational Dynamics in the Arctic: 2015 to 2050

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Anastasia Emelyanova
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Educational Structure ◽  
Medium Development ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Geographical Space ◽  
Future Population

The Arctic is a geographical space surrounding the North Pole. It encompasses dozens of sub-national entities north of eight Arctic countries: Russia, Canada, Denmark, the United States, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. It is 20 million square kilometers land coverage settled with only 10 million people (2015). In the desire to learn more about the Arctic overall profile in population change, we aimed at producing cross-regional dataset covering all parts of the Arctic, and using it as a baseline for the cohort- component population projection. In this way, we model the future changes in the age, sex, and educational structure of sub-national populations, the latter reflecting the regional human capital. The projections are based on three alternative scenarios, taking into account regional characteristics (“Medium development”, “Arctic Boost”, and “Arctic Dip”). The results might be informative for those interested in the future dynamics of the Arctic population from 2015 forward to 2050.

scholarly journals A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-148
Author(s):  
Karandeep Singh ◽  
Chang-Won Ahn ◽  
Euihyun Paik ◽  
Jang Won Bae ◽  
Chun-Hee Lee
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Artificial Society ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Future

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or “soft,” aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

scholarly journals Demographic Projections for India: Past, Present and Future

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.31) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
R Subba Rao ◽  
Y Jagannadhapuri ◽  
K M. Ganes ◽  
D V. Ramanamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Demographic Projections ◽  
New Information ◽  
Human Fertility ◽  
Sample Registration System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Population

The growth or development of a country mainly depends on the present and future population scenario. Population projections help in the growth of the nation in various directions. Predicting the human fertility and mortality is very difficult, particularly when we are concentrating farther time. Various National, International and some individual demographers made projections for the entire nation and some parts of the country. The estimates of the population projections changes as and when new information added to the existing values. The perspective population growth and its impact were discussed by Visaria and Visaria, 1996 and noticed that population projections vary based on the parameters considered in their models. In our present work, by considering the 2001 India’s Census data, Registrar General (1996)[14], a new population projection of the country are estimated by allowing the age arrangement of the population. The mortality estimates of the whole country made by considering the impact of HIV / AIDS. Cohort component method was used for the projections from 2001 to 2051. Using the Sample Registration System (SRS) figures of 2001 census, state level figures are generated. Only two variants namely, average and high are used for making the population projections.  

scholarly journals THE THIRD NATIONAL POPULATION CENSUS IS AN IMPERATIVE OF POLITICAL, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 4-9
Author(s):  
Y. Amireev ◽  
◽  
B.U. Kerimbekova ◽  
A. Nartbaeva ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
National Population ◽  
The Third ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future

The article describes the significance and priority tasks of the Third National Population Census, which form long-term plans for the socio-economic development of the coun-try. The author made a historical review of the stages of the population census, the demographic situation in the country and made a forecast for the future, developed the main directions of the upcoming population census and its situation.

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