scholarly journals Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3199
Author(s):  
Qinwen Li ◽  
Yafeng Lu ◽  
Yukuan Wang ◽  
Pei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Process Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Road Density ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Soil Process

Risk assessment lays a foundation for disaster risk reduction management, especially in relation to climate change. Intensified extreme weather and climate events driven by climate change may increase related disaster susceptibility. This may interact with exposed and vulnerable socioeconomic systems to aggravate the impacts and impede progress towards regional development. In this study, debris flow risk under climate change was assessed by an integrated debris flow mechanism model and an inclusive socioeconomic status evaluation. We implemented the method for a debris flow-prone area in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Based on the analysis of three general circulation models (GCMs)—Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1 (BCC_CSM), model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System, version 5 (MIROC5, and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4)—the water–soil process model was applied to assess debris flow susceptibility. For the vulnerability evaluation, an index system established from the categories of bearing elements was analyzed by principle component analysis (PCA) methods. Our results showed that 432 to 1106 watersheds (accounting for 23% to 52% of the study area) were identified as debris-flow watersheds, although extreme rainfall would occur in most of the area from 2007 to 2060. The distributions of debris flow watersheds were concentrated in the north and transition zones of the study area. Additionally, the result of the index and PCA suggested that most areas had relatively low socioeconomic scores and such areas were considered as high-vulnerability human systems (accounts for 91%). Further analysis found that population density, road density, and gross domestic production made great contributions to vulnerability reduction. For practical mitigation strategies, we suggested that the enhancement of road density may be the most efficient risk reduction strategy.

An Approach to Next-Generation Water Disaster Study – In Commemoration of the 10th Anniversary of the Establishment of ICHARM –

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1031-1031
Author(s):  
Toshio Koike ◽  
◽  
Kuniyoshi Takeuchi ◽  
Shinji Egashira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Water Disaster

In March 2015, the Third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction adopted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction with a two-part goal: to prevent new and reduce existing disaster risks through the implementation of integrated and inclusive measures that prevent and reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability to disaster, and to increase preparedness for response and recovery, thus strengthening resilience. The first priority for action was given to ”understanding disaster risk,” including focusing on the collection and use of data, risk assessment, disaster prevention education, and awareness raising. The stance of emphasizing science and technology was clearly expressed. In September 2015, the UN Summit meeting adopted the 17 goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Four of the 17 goals include targets related to disaster prevention and mitigation, which has given rise to active discussions over measurement methods and indicators for the targets. The Paris Conference of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21), held from the end of November to early December 2015, placed an emphasis on the importance of science and technology in both mitigation and adaptation. In light of these international discussions and their outcomes, we called for papers on the following three topics for this special edition featuring water disasters. (1) Prevention of new water disaster risks: rainfall prediction, flood and drought prediction, river bed change prediction, climate change, land use plans, etc. (2) Reduction of existing water disaster risks: disaster data and statistics, risk monitoring, risk assessment, etc. (3) Resilience reinforcement and inclusive measures: disaster recovery, risk communication, competence development, etc. Nineteen papers were applied to this special issue. All papers were peer reviewed, and sixteen papers are included herein. We received invaluable comments and suggestions for all applications from the points of view of various fields from many experts in Japan and overseas. We would like to express our gratitude for these.

An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongwen Wu ◽  
Lianchun Song ◽  
Weiping Li ◽  
Zaizhi Wang ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate System Model

scholarly journals Landslide Disaster Risk Assessment Model in Soppeng Regency, South Sulawesi

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-95
Author(s):  
Adi Maulana ◽  
Suharman Hamzah ◽  
Iswandi Utama ◽  
Jamal Rauf Husain
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Disaster Risk Assessment ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Medium Level ◽  
Landslide Disaster

Landslide disaster risk assessment model has been proposed for Soppeng Regency which is located in the central part of South Sulawesi Province. Some areas in this regency are classified as landslide prone area based on its geological condition. This study is aimed to assess the landslide vulnerability level and produce a landslide vulnerability map by using mapping method as a basis to model the risk reduction assessment. The component of disaster risk assessment consists of threats, vulnerabilities, and capacities. These components are used to obtain the level of disaster risk in an area by calculating the potential for exposed lives, loss of property and environmental damage. The result shows that Soppeng Regency region has some areas that are prone to landslides with low-high levels. The Vulnerability Assessment is classified as medium level whereas the result of landslide disaster capacity assessment is also shown as medium level. Based on these analyses, it was concluded that Soppeng Regency had a high landslide threat index, with a medium exposed population index and a medium capacity index. The study of landslide disaster risk assessment in Soppeng Regency has shown that Soppeng Regency has been classified as landslide prone area with the medium risk level, especially in mountainous and river bank area. It is recommended that disaster risk assessment model should be used as one of the references for providing disaster risk mitigation plan in disaster risk reduction program.

scholarly journals The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 2122-2143 ◽  
Author(s):  
William D. Collins ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz ◽  
Maurice L. Blackmon ◽  
Gordon B. Bonan ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Community Climate System Model ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
Community Climate

Abstract The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) has recently been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale dynamics, variability, and climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for the atmosphere and land and a grid with approximately 1° resolution for the ocean and sea ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the physical parameterizations. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land–atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed layer processes, and sea ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, tropical sea surface temperatures, and cloud radiative effects. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millennial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean–atmosphere fluxes in coastal regions west of continents, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the tropical oceans, and continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. Work is under way to extend CCSM to a more accurate and comprehensive model of the earth's climate system.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document