scholarly journals Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Zhihui Lv ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Time Regime ◽  
Variance Decomposition Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Unlike the existing literature, which primarily studies the impact of only monetary policy shocks on real estate investment trusts (REITs), this paper develops a change-point vector autoregressive (VAR) model and then analyzes, for the first time, regime-specific impact of demand, supply, monetary policy, and spread yield shocks, identified using sign-restrictions, on US REITs returns. The model first isolates four major macroeconomic regimes in the US since the 1970s and discloses important changes to the statistical properties of REITs returns and its responses to the identified shocks. A variance decomposition analysis revealed aggregate supply shocks to have dominated in the early part of the sample period, and monetary policy and spread shocks at the end. Our results imply that ignoring other possible shocks in the model is likely to lead to incorrect inferences, and over-reliance on (conventional) monetary policy in correcting for possible bubbles in the REITs sector, which it will fail to rectify, given the importance of other shocks driving the REITs sector.

scholarly journals Limited Participation in Equity Markets and Business Cycles

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (026) ◽  
pp. 1-79
Author(s):  
Juan M. Morelli ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Limited Participation ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Individual

This paper studies how the rise in US households' participation in equity markets affects the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to the economy. I embed limited participation into a New Keynesian framework for the US economy to analyze the individual and aggregate effects of higher participation. I derive three main results. First, participants are relatively more responsive to shocks than nonparticipants. Second, higher participation reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, with higher participation the economy becomes less volatile. I contrast key predictions of my model with new micro-level empirical evidence on the response of consumption to monetary policy shocks.

Is bigger more effective? shock size and the efficacy of monetary policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Toyoichiro Shirota
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Projection Method ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Information Effect ◽  
Local Projection ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Potential Source ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Abstract This study empirically examines whether shock size matters for the US monetary policy effects. Using a nonlinear local projection method, I find that large monetary policy shocks are less powerful than smaller monetary policy shocks, with the information effect being the potential source of the observed asymmetry in monetary policy efficacy.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY, HOUSING BOOMS, AND FINANCIAL (IM)BALANCES

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 830-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Eickmeier ◽  
Boris Hofmann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper applies a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to U.S. data with the aim of analyzing monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads, and house prices and of exploring the role of monetary policy in the housing and credit boom prior to the global financial crisis. We find that monetary policy shocks have a persistent effect on house prices, real estate wealth, and private sector debt and a strong short-lived effect on risk spreads in money and mortgage markets. Moreover, the results suggest that monetary policy contributed considerably to the unsustainable precrisis developments in housing and credit markets. Although monetary policy shocks contributed discernibly at a late stage of the boom, feedback effects of other (macroeconomic and financial) shocks via lower policy rates kicked in earlier and appear to have been considerable.

scholarly journals The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 690-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Paul
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
House Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared to the response of output, the reaction of stock and house prices to monetary policy shocks was particularly low before the 2007–2009 financial crisis.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 472
Author(s):  
Petre Caraiani ◽  
Adrian Călin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks, including unconventional policy measures, on the bubbles of the energy sector, for the case of the United States. We estimate a time-varying Bayesian VAR model that allows for quantifying the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and bubbles. The energy sector is measured through the S&P Energy Index, while bubbles are measured through the difference between asset prices and the corresponding dividends for the energy sector. We find significant differences in the impact of monetary policy shocks for the aggregate economy and for the energy sector. The findings seem sensitive to the interest rate use, i.e., whether one uses the shadow interest rate or the long-term interest rate.

TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS: DO INPUT–OUTPUT INTERACTIONS MATTER?

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 1881-1903
Author(s):  
Aarti Singh ◽  
Stefano Tornielli Di Crestvolant
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

We examine whether input–output interactions among industries impact the transmission of monetary policy shocks through the economy. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methods we find evidence of heterogeneity in the output response to a monetary policy shock in both finished goods industries and intermediate goods industries. While output responses in finished goods industries can be related to heterogeneity in industry characteristics, this relationship is not so obvious for intermediate goods industries. For the intermediate goods industries in our sample, we find new evidence of demand-spillover effects that impact the transmission of monetary policy via input–output linkages.

Financial Constraints, Monetary Policy Shocks, and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 4367-4402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudheer Chava ◽  
Alex Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We analyze the impact ofa unanticipated monetary policy changes on the cross-section of U.S. equity returns. Financially constrained firms earn a significantly lower (higher) return following surprise interest rate increases (decreases) as compared to unconstrained firms. This differential return response between constrained and unconstrained firms appears after a delay of 3 to 4 days. Further, unanticipated Federal funds rate increases are associated with a larger decrease in expected cash flow news, but not discount rate news, for constrained firms relative to unconstrained firms. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Firm Size, Industry Mix and the Regional Transmission of Monetary Policy in Germany

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo J. M. Arnold ◽  
Evert B. Vrugt
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Interest Rate Shocks ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper estimates the impact of interest rate shocks on regional output in Germany over the period from 1970 to 2000. We use a vector autoregression (VAR) model to obtain impulse responses, which reveal differences in the output responses to monetary policy shocks across ten German provinces. Next, we investigate whether these differences can be related to structural features of the regional economies, such as industry mix, firm size, bank size and openness. An additional analysis of the volatility of real GDP growth for the period 1992-2000 includes the Eastern provinces. We also present evidence on the interrelationship between firm size and industry, and compare our measure of firm size with those used in previous studies. We conclude that the differential regional effects of monetary policy are related to industrial composition, but not to firm size or bank size.

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