scholarly journals Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youjung Kim ◽  
Galen Newman
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Transformation Model

Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Index for Land-Use Changes: Case Study of Pakpanang River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 25-40
Author(s):  
Chonlatid Kittikhun ◽  
Sitang Pilailar ◽  
Suwatana Chittaladakorn ◽  
Eakawat Jhonpadit
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Arc Gis

Flood Risk Index (FRI) is the multi-criteria linked with the factors of vulnerability; exposure, susceptibility, and resilience. In order to establish local FRI, crucial local information have to be accumulated. However, under the limitation of land-use data, particular techniques were applied in this study. CA Markov model was used to analyze the past missing land-use data and, also forecast the future land-use of Pakpanang river basin under conditions of plan and without plan. The ratio changes of forest, agriculture, wetland and water, and urban areas were considered. Then, the result of LULC spatial-temporal changes was then applied to Hec-HMS and Hec-Ras , with Arc GIS extension of Hec-GeoHMS and Hec-GeoRas software, in order to evaluate the flood hydrographs and flood severity in three municipalities corresponding to 100-year return period rainfall. Afterward, the FRI of Pakpanang, Chianyai, and Hua-sai, which ranges from 0 to 1, were evaluated by using the modified FRI equations. It was found that sensitivity analysis in the area of forest on flood depth and inundation areas is incoherent. Nevertheless, without land-use planning, the changes in these three cities cause higher flood risk, where Chianyai is the riskiest as the FRIE is 0.58. Further consideration of FRIE and FRIP proportion that reveals the FRI deviation indicates that to reduce flood risk, Chianyai would need the most resources and highest effort comparison to Pakpanang and Hua-sai.

scholarly journals Deconvolving The Effects of Coastal Erosion and Sea-Level Rise in Assessing Shoreline Retreat Along Semi-Arid Urban Coasts

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oula Amrouni ◽  
Essam Heggy ◽  
Abderraouf Hzami
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Coastal Erosion ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Shoreline Retreat ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract The alarming vulnerability of low-lying sandy beaches to the acceleration of global sea level rise has been confirmed in the recent IPCC AR6 report. The situation is worsened by increasing coastal erosion, resulting in additional shoreline retreat of sandy beaches along several semi-arid urban coastal areas around the globe. The additional shoreline retreats from erosion are indicative of the rising imbalance in coastal sedimentary processes, which are a direct consequence of changes in precipitation patterns, urban growth, and change in land use. To quantify the magnitude and timescale of both coastal erosion and sea-level rise (SLR) in generating shoreline retreat of sandy beaches in semi-arid urban areas, we combine photogrammetric and statistical methods to measure and forecast the decadal evolution of these coastlines using two well-characterized sites that are hypothesized herein to be globally representative of these types of coasts undergoing rapid urban growth. We use multi-decadal shoreline positioning and land use classification surveys of the Southern California (SC, USA) and the Hammamet-North (HAM, Tunisia) beaches from aerial and orbital photogrammetric images, combined with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, for the period from 1985 to 2018. Our results suggest that the current average shoreline retreat rates of sandy beaches range from -0.75 to -1.24 m/yr in SC and from -0.21 to -4.49 m/yr in HAM under similar aridity, land coverage and precipitation patterns. The observed decadal changes in shoreline positions along these semi-arid urban coastal areas are found to be accentuated by anthropogenic drivers associated with extensive urbanization, causing sediment imbalance at the coastline, adding up to the effect of the accelerating SLR. We assess that ~81% and 57% of the observed shoreline retreat was due to SLR, and 19% to 43% due to coastal erosion from urban growth along SC and HAM beaches, respectively. Using these measured rates, we establish a semi-empirical numerical model that combines urban growth and the observed shoreline retreat rate to forecast retreat rates through 2100 for both of our study areas, inferred herein to be representative of other global semi-arid urban coasts. Our model suggests that future average total shoreline retreat rates, accounting for both urban growth and SLR, range from -2 to -4 m/yr for SC and HAM sandy beaches, respectively, through 2100. The above suggests that if no mitigation is made, by 2100 the cumulative shoreline retreat in these urban areas could significantly exceed the Global Scale Assessment Model’s [46] cumulative projected average retreat of -30 m, confirming the alarming vulnerability of the semi-arid coastal urban areas that would need intensive and costly beach nourishment to control increasing shoreline erosion.

scholarly journals Link between Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Johanna Sörensen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
The Impact

The densification of urban areas has raised concerns over increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might increase under the impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves the conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas, causing lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intensity rainfall exceeds the capacity of an urban drainage system, the runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (i.e., 20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk as it relates to land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from drainage systems; these data serve as a proxy of flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis was placed on examining how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relate to flood risk. The relationships are defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies whereby land use change affects flood risk.

Effects of sea level rise induced land use changes on traffic congestion

2020 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 102515
Author(s):  
Ilia Papakonstantinou ◽  
Alain Tcheukam Siwe ◽  
Samer Michel Madanat
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Land Use Changes

scholarly journals Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through Adaptive Managed Retreat of a New Zealand Stormwater and Wastewater Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Kool ◽  
Judy Lawrence ◽  
Martin Drews ◽  
Robert Bell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Adaptation Option ◽  
Levels Of Service ◽  
Over Time

Sea-level rise increasingly affects low-lying and exposed coastal communities due to climate change. These communities rely upon the delivery of stormwater and wastewater services which are often co-located underground in coastal areas. Due to sea-level rise and associated compounding climate-related hazards, managing these networks will progressively challenge local governments as climate change advances. Thus, responsible agencies must reconcile maintaining Levels of Service as the impacts of climate change worsen over the coming decades and beyond. A critical question is whether such networks can continue to be adapted/protected over time to retain Levels of Service, or whether eventual retreat may be the only viable adaptation option? If so, at what performance threshold? In this paper, we explore these questions for stormwater and wastewater, using a dynamic adaptive pathway planning (DAPP) approach designed to address thresholds and increasing risk over time. Involving key local stakeholders, we here use DAPP to identify thresholds for stormwater and wastewater services and retreat options, and for developing a comprehensive and area-specific retreat strategy comprising pathway portfolios, retreat phases, potential land use changes, and for exploring pathway conflicts and synergies. The result is a prototype for an area near Wellington, New Zealand, where a managed retreat of water infrastructure is being considered at some future juncture. Dynamic adaptive strategies for managed retreats can help to reduce future disruption from coastal flooding, signal land use changes early, inform maintenance, and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies that can manage expenditure over time. We present this stepwise process in a pathway form that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat a more manageable, sequenced, adaptation option for water agencies, and the communities they serve.

scholarly journals The Challenge of Social Vulnerability Assessment in the Context of Land Use Changes for Sustainable Urban Planning—Case Studies: Developing Cities in Romania

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Camelia Sabina Botezan ◽  
Andrei Radovici ◽  
Iulia Ajtai
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Specific Vulnerability ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Urban growth triggers massive changes in land use cover, exacerbating extreme natural and technological events. In order for land use planning to be efficient, it requires the integration of comprehensive risk and vulnerability assessment. This paper aims to create a bridge between the existing vulnerability theories and their implementation in land use planning policies and proposes an innovative approach to determine whether the changes in the territorial dynamics of cities draw considerable changes in communities’ social vulnerability. The methodology identifies and selects three case studies from the Urban Atlas inventory, representative of the dynamics of large Romanian cities, taking into consideration the following hazards: earthquakes, floods, and technological hazards. Vulnerability was then assessed by assigning each land use class a specific vulnerability level. The methodology involved assessing the level of vulnerability specific to the situation in 2018 compared to 2006. The results showed that major changes in land use are related to the transition of areas with a low level of vulnerability to areas with a higher level of vulnerability as a result of the urban areas expansion to the detriment of natural and agricultural areas. This is generally translated into a higher degree of vulnerability due to an increased density of artificial elements and of population in the residential areas. The findings of the study of territorial dynamics in the proximity of large industrial operators did not reveal a tendency that differed from the general trend. Although many territorial changes have been observed in the period 2006–2018, it is necessary to extend the analysis, with the issue of the new versions of the Urban Atlas, to confirm the identified trends and to express the up-to-date situation.

Grid-based global coastal zone datasets for coastal impact analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lincke
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Rocky Shores ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Elevation Model ◽  
Natural Boundaries

<p><span>Global coastal impact and adaptation analysis in the context of climate change induced sea-level rise needs precise and standardized datasets. Here, such datasets and their construction are presented. Starting from a high-resolution global digital elevation model, the coastline is extracted with taking into account river mouths and lagoons taken from a global surface water dataset. The global low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) is derived by determining all grid cells hydrological connected to the coastline. Recent surge-data is combined with sea-level rise scenarios to partition the global LECZ into local floodplains. Latest socio-economic and land-use data is used to partition and classify these local floodplains. As local impacts and adaptation responses are not spatially uniform, but depend on a range of conditions including: i) biophysical conditions such as natural boundaries between floodplains (e.g. hills, rocks, etc.) and coastal geomorphology (e.g. sandy versus rocky shores), ii) technical conditions such as existing flood protection infrastructure (e.g. dike rings in the Netherlands), and ii) socio-economic conditions such as administrative boundaries, land use and urban extent (e.g. rural versus urban areas), latest land-use, beach and wetland datasets are used to partition the coastline of each floodplain into a network of coastline segments which can be used for assessing local shoreline management options. </span></p><p><span>The generated datasets contain about 1.6 million km of coastline distributed over 87,600 islands. The LECZ comprises 3.14 million km² and partitioning this LECZ with surge and sea-level rise data into floodplains for coastal impact modelling finds about 221,800 floodplains with at least 0.05 km² area. </span></p>

Land use changes and sea level rise may induce a “coastal squeeze” on the coasts of Veracruz, Mexico

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 180-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ma. Luisa Martínez ◽  
Gabriela Mendoza-González ◽  
Rodolfo Silva-Casarín ◽  
Edgar Mendoza-Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Coastal Squeeze ◽  
And Sea Level

scholarly journals River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yus Budiyono ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
Daniel Tollenaar ◽  
Philip J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
River Flood ◽  
Increase In Risk

Abstract. Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by −46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM–RCP–sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

scholarly journals Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impacts: Innovation and Improvement of the Local Urban Plan for a Climate-Proof Adaptation Strategy

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1565
Author(s):  
Carmela Mariano ◽  
Marsia Marino ◽  
Giovanna Pisacane ◽  
Gianmaria Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Urban Structure ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Evaluation Phase ◽  
Risk Maps

In recent years, the territorial impacts connected to sea level rise have prompted a reflection on the responsibilities of policy makers in transposing these issues into urban agendas. The need also emerged to both broaden and update the skills of urban planners and to improve territorial governance tools, with the aim of developing feasible regeneration and resilience strategies to face climate change. In this paper, a methodology for the production of Flood Risk Maps is presented, as applied to the Municipality of Ravenna, Italy, by only considering the static component of inundation hazard, i.e., the projected Mean Sea Level Rise, as a first step towards increased preparedness. The resulting Flood Risk Maps represent, in fact, an innovation with respect to the current cognitive framework that supports local urban planning, by providing information on a potential risk that has so far been overlooked. The method combines sea level rise projections under the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario with georeferenced territorial data, aiming to identify the physical consistency of the urban-structure components which are potentially at risk. For successive time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2100), our results show the progressive impairment and potential degradation of extensive urban areas that are disregarded in the urban planning regulations currently in force. This preliminary evaluation phase is aimed at prompting and supporting the necessary updating of the planning tools and regulations adopted by the public bodies responsible for territorial governance, by identifying priority areas for intervention, and helping define mitigation and adaptation actions.

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