scholarly journals Urban Growth and Demographic Dynamics in Southern Europe: Toward a New Statistical Approach to Regional Science

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariateresa Ciommi ◽  
Francesco Chelli ◽  
Margherita Carlucci ◽  
Luca Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Urban Forms ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Demographic Dynamics ◽  
Steep Decline ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Linear Regression Modeling

Metropolitan growth in Europe has resulted in drastic changes of urban forms, socio-spatial structures and land-use patterns due to sequential processes of urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization. To assess latent shifts from mono-centric models towards more disarticulated and decentralized settlement configurations, the present study evaluates spatio-temporal patterns of growth between the 1920s and the 2010s in three Mediterranean cities with different structure and functions (Barcelona: compact and moderately polycentric; Rome: dispersed, medium-density; Athens: mono-centric, hyper-compact). To identify and characterize long-term urban transformations, an original approach was illustrated in this study, based on a multivariate analysis of 13 indicators resulting from descriptive statistics and linear regression modeling the relationship between population density and distance from inner cities. The empirical results of this study indicate that Barcelona, Rome and Athens have experienced different urbanization cycles, characterized by a (more or less) concentrated distribution of population along urban gradients. Despite similarities in demographic dynamics and planning practices, these processes have determined (i) a mostly centralized growth in Barcelona, (ii) a relatively dispersed and discontinuous spatial structure in Rome, and (iii) a steep decline of population density with the distance from downtown Athens. Compact urban expansion, population decline and urban de-concentration were finally assessed using the analytical approach proposed in this study.

scholarly journals Current and Future Land Use Characters of a National Central City in Eco-Fragile Region—A Case Study in Xi’an City Based on FLUS Model

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Dingrao Feng ◽  
Wenkai Bao ◽  
Meichen Fu ◽  
Min Zhang ◽  
Yiyu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Pattern Change ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Xi’An City

Land use change plays a key role in terrestrial systems and drives the process of ecological pattern change. It is important to investigate the process of land use change, predict land use patterns, and reveal the characteristics of land use dynamics. In this study, we adopted the Markov model and future land use (FLUS) model to predict the future land use conditions in Xi’an city. Furthermore, we investigated the characteristics of land use change from a novel perspective, i.e., via establishment of a complex network model. This model captured the characteristics of the land use system during different periods. The results indicated that urban expansion and cropland loss played an important role in land use pattern change. The future gravity center of urban development moved along the opposite direction to that from 2000 to 2015 in Xi’an city. Although the rate of urban expansion declined in the future, urban expansion remained the primary driver of land use change. The primary urban development directions were east-southeast (ENE), north-northeast (NNE) and west-southwest (WSW) from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2015, and 2015 to 2030, respectively. In fact, cropland played a vital role in land use dynamics regarding all land use types, and the stability of the land use system decreased in the future. Our study provides future land use patterns and a novel perspective to better understand land use change.

scholarly journals Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 170391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kohei Tamura ◽  
Naoki Masuda
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Spatial Average ◽  
Empirical Observation ◽  
Societal Factors ◽  
Demographic Dynamics ◽  
A Cell ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500  m ) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

The Archaeology of Group Size

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Grove
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Human Evolution ◽  
Group Size ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Archaeological Data ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Trajectories Of Change ◽  
Spatio Temporal

This chapter aims to summarize the results of recent research producing estimates of hominin range areas, population sizes, and land use patterns based on archaeological data. Estimates of such variables are essential to any geographic or demographic discussion of human evolution, yet at present no generally applicable quantitative method is available to link them to the often abundant data of the archaeological record. Such data offer a unique window onto the patterns of adaptation characterizing prehistoric human populations, and developing a generic method to describe trajectories of change will allow researchers to compare range areas, population sizes and land use patterns between different regions and periods from throughout the vast spatio-temporal range of human evolution. The discussion gives particular emphasis to estimating a trajectory of group size through time from shortly after 2 million years ago until approximately 14,000 years ago.

scholarly journals ANÁLISE DAS VARIAÇÕES ESPACIAIS NO MUNICÍPIO DE PONTAL DO PARANÁ (PARANÁ – BRASIL), ENTRE OS ANOS DE 1980 e 2032 DECORRENTES DA INSTALAÇÃO DO COMPLEXO PORTUÁRIO

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (02) ◽  
pp. 263-290
Author(s):  
Jean Jesus Ilsuk da Silva ◽  
Sony Cortese Caneparo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
The Future ◽  
Clark University ◽  
Spatio Temporal

O município de Pontal do Paraná está localizado no litoral do estado do Paraná, na região sul do Brasil. Em 1995, foi aí instalado o Porto de Pontal Importação e Exportação LTDA e, em 2013, foi aprovada a licença ambiental para a construção de um complexo portuário neste município. Tal obra se apresenta como um desafio, devido ao potencial que o mesmo apresenta em produzir impactos ambientais e mudanças nos padrões de uso da terra.Essa pesquisa objetiva analisar as mudanças espaciais que podem ocorrer futuramente no uso da terra e na cobertura vegetal em Pontal do Paraná (2032), em virtude da instalação deste complexo. Foram utilizadas rotinas de sistemas de informações geográficas, inseridas no IDRISI TAIGA, da Clark University, dentre elas se destacam a  Cadeia de Markov e os Autômatos Celulares para a geração do cenário futuro. O resultado da modelagem preditiva (2032), em função da expansão portuária, foi um aumento nas áreas urbanas, fator que poderia impactar diretamente as áreas de Restingas, de Mangues e da Floresta Ombrófila Densa. O presente trabalho revelou que o uso da modelagem preditiva pode ser uma ferramenta bastante útil para a avaliação e interpretação de cenários futuros. Palavras-chave: Modelagem Preditiva; Ambiente Litorâneo; Dinâmica Espaço-Temporal.   ANALYSIS OF SPACE VARIATIONS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF PONTAL DO PARANÁ (PARANÁ - BRAZIL), BETWEEN 1980 AND 2032 ARISING FROM THE PORT COMPLEX INSTALLATION Abstract The city of Pontal do Paraná is located on the coast of the state of Paraná, in the southern region of Brazil. In 1995, the Port of Pontal Importação e Exportação Company was installed there, and in 2013, the environmental license was approved for the installation of a port complex in this municipality. This Port presents itself as a challenge, due to its potential in producing environmental impacts and changes in land use patterns. This research aims to analyze the spatial changes that may occur in the future of land use and vegetation cover of Pontal do Paraná (2032), due to the installation of this complex. Routines of geographic information systems, inserted in the IDRISI TAIGA, of Clark University, among them, the Markov Chain and the Cellular Automatics were used to generate the future scenario. The result of predictive modeling (2032), caused by the port expansion, was an increase in urban areas, a factor that could directly impact the areas of restingas,  mangroves, and the atlantic rainforest. The present study revealed that the use of predictive modeling can be a very useful tool for the evaluation and interpretation of future scenarios. Keywords: Predictive Modeling; Coastal Environment; Spatio-Temporal Dynamics.   ANÁLISIS DE LAS VARIACIONES ESPACIALES EN EL MUNICIPIO DE PONTAL DO PARANÁ (PARANÁ - BRASIL), ENTRE LOS AÑOS 1980 Y 2032 RESULTANTE DE LA INSTALACIÓN DEL COMPLEJO PORTUARIO Resumen El municipio de Pontal do Paraná está ubicado en la costa del estado de Paraná, en la región sur de Brasil. En 1995, se instaló el Puerto de Importación y Exportación de Pontal Ltd. y, en 2013, se aprobó el permiso ambiental para la construcción de un complejo portuario en este municipio. Esta obra se presenta como un desafío, debido a la posibilidad  de producir impactos ambientales y cambios en los patrones de uso de la tierra. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar los cambios espaciales que puedan ocurrir en el futuro uso de la tierra y la vegetación en el Pontal do Paraná (2032), debido a la instalación de este complejo. Las rutinas se utilizan sistemas de información geográfica, insertado en el IDRISI TAIGA, Clark University, entre ellos se encuentran la Cadena de Markov y Autómatas Celulares para la generación de escenarios futuros. Los resultados de la modelización predictiva (2032), dependiendo de la expansión de lo puerto, fue un aumento en las zonas urbanas, un factor que podría tener un impacto directo sobre las áreas de Restinga, Manglares y Bosque Ombrophilous Denso. El presente estudio demostró que el uso de modelado predictivo puede ser una herramienta muy útil para la evaluación e interpretación de escenarios futuros. Palabras clave: Modelado Predictivo; Costero; Dinámica Espacio-Temporal.

scholarly journals Trade-Off Relationship of Arable and Ecological Land in Urban Growth When Altering Urban Form: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 10041
Author(s):  
Kaixuan Dai ◽  
Shi Shen ◽  
Changxiu Cheng ◽  
Sijing Ye ◽  
Peichao Gao
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Urban Forms

Over the last few decades, rapid urban expansion has spread over a great deal of arable and ecological land, leading to severe social and environmental issues. Although different urban growth scenarios cause varying types of urban forms to emerge, there is currently a lack of empirical studies and other research on these different forms. Therefore, it is important for decision-makers to have an improved understanding of the relationships between arable land and ecological land under different urban form conditions in order to implement sustainable urban development policies. This study utilized a patch-based, multilevel stochastic urban growth model to simulate Shenzhen’s urban growth until 2035. To determine the impacts of urban forms and population density on land use, we established five scenarios to simulate urban expansion and land-use changes at the sub-regional scale. The results revealed the trade-off relationships that emerge when altering the urban forms or population density, which shows that no single policy can conserve arable land and ecological land simultaneously. The results also revealed that sub-regions have distinct responses to alternative urban form scenarios compared with an entire region. Decision-makers and planners should consider the urban form in order to optimize development projects that fit local conditions and achieve more sustainable development.

scholarly journals Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (4) ◽  
pp. 1025-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Stevenson ◽  
Cedric O. Puleston ◽  
Peter M. Vitousek ◽  
Oliver A. Chadwick ◽  
Sonia Haoa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Regional Study ◽  
Rapa Nui ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
European Contact ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Demographic Dynamics ◽  
Societal Collapse ◽  
Fragile Environment

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact.

scholarly journals L’évolution récente de l’utilisation du sol sur la rive nord du Saint-Laurent entre Québec et Montréal

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 55-71
Author(s):  
Peter B. Clibbon ◽  
Jacques Gagnon
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Quebec City ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Specialty Crops ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Rural Land Use ◽  
The North ◽  
Saint Lawrence River ◽  
The Face

In recent years, the face of much of rural Québec bas undergone a series of important transformations : vast areas of marginal farmland have either been abandoned or reforested ; large tracts of cleared land in the Saint Lawrence lowlands have been converted from general farming to specialty crops ; several of these areas of specialty crops are now being swallowed up by urban expansion ; the Laurentide hills and large sections of the Eastern Townships area are rapidly being transformed into sprawling tourist playgrounds. With the aid of 1964 air photos and 1965 land use data the authors record and briefly discuss some of the more striking trends in the evolution of rural land use patterns in the area between Montréal and Québec City, on the north shore of the Saint Lawrence River.

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