scholarly journals Earth-Observation-Based Estimation and Forecasting of Particulate Matter Impact on Solar Energy in Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Kosmopoulos ◽  
Stelios Kazadzis ◽  
Hesham El-Askary ◽  
Michael Taylor ◽  
Antonis Gkikas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
The Impact

This study estimates the impact of dust aerosols on surface solar radiation and solar energy in Egypt based on Earth Observation (EO) related techniques. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of monthly mean and daily post processed satellite remote sensing observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations utilizing machine learning, in conjunction with 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). As cloudy conditions in this region are rare, aerosols in particular dust, are the most common sources of solar irradiance attenuation, causing performance issues in the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plant installations. The proposed EO-based methodology is based on the solar energy nowcasting system (SENSE) that quantifies the impact of aerosol and dust on solar energy potential by using the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in terms of climatological values and day-to-day monitoring and forecasting variability from MODIS and CAMS, respectively. The forecast accuracy was evaluated at various locations in Egypt with substantial PV and CSP capacity installed and found to be within 5–12% of that obtained from the satellite observations, highlighting the ability to use such modelling approaches for solar energy management and planning (M&P). Particulate matter resulted in attenuation by up to 64–107 kWh/m2 for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and 192–329 kWh/m2 for direct normal irradiance (DNI) annually. This energy reduction is climatologically distributed between 0.7% and 12.9% in GHI and 2.9% to 41% in DNI with the maximum values observed in spring following the frequent dust activity of Khamaseen. Under extreme dust conditions the AOD is able to exceed 3.5 resulting in daily energy losses of more than 4 kWh/m2 for a 10 MW system. Such reductions are able to cause financial losses that exceed the daily revenue values. This work aims to show EO capabilities and techniques to be incorporated and utilized in solar energy studies and applications in sun-privileged locations with permanent aerosol sources such as Egypt.

scholarly journals Impact of Aerosol and Cloud on the Solar Energy Potential over the Central Gangetic Himalayan Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 3248
Author(s):  
Umesh Chandra Dumka ◽  
Panagiotis G. Kosmopoulos ◽  
Shantikumar S. Ningombam ◽  
Akriti Masoom
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Moderate Resolution ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
The Impact

We examine the impact of atmospheric aerosols and clouds on the surface solar radiation and solar energy at Nainital, a high-altitude remote location in the central Gangetic Himalayan region (CGHR). For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of remote-sensed data in terms of ground-based AERONET Sun Photometer and satellite observations from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), with radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations and 1 day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Clouds and aerosols are one of the most common sources of solar irradiance attenuation and hence causing performance issues in the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plant installations. The outputs of RTM results presented with high accuracy under clear, cloudy sky and dust conditions for global horizontal (GHI) and beam horizontal irradiance (BHI). On an annual basis the total aerosol attenuation was found to be up to 105 kWh m−2 for the GHI and 266 kWh m−2 for BHI, respectively, while the cloud effect is much stronger with an attenuation of 245 and 271 kWh m−2 on GHI and BHI. The results of this study will support the Indian solar energy producers and electricity handling entities in order to quantify the energy and financial losses due to cloud and aerosol presence.

scholarly journals Dust impact on surface solar irradiance assessed with model simulations, satellite observations and ground-based measurements

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis G. Kosmopoulos ◽  
Stelios Kazadzis ◽  
Michael Taylor ◽  
Eleni Athanasopoulou ◽  
Orestis Speyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Dust Event ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assesses the impact of dust on surface solar radiation focussing on an extreme dust event. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of AERONET measurements and passive and active satellite remote sensing (MODIS and CALIPSO) observations, in conjunction with radiative transfer model (RTM) and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and the 1-day ahead forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The area of interest is the eastern Mediterranean where anomalously high aerosol loads were recorded between the 30 January and 3 February 2015. The intensity of the event was extremely high, with aerosol optical depth (AOD) reaching 3.5, and optical/microphysical properties suggesting aged dust. RTM and CTM simulations were able to quantify the extent of dust impact on surface irradiances and reveal substantial reduction in solar energy exploitation capacity of PV and CSP installations, under this high aerosol load. We found that such an extreme dust event can result to Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) attenuation by as much as 40–50 %, a much stronger Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) decrease (80–90 %), while spectrally this attenuation is distributed to 37 % in the UV region, 33 % to the visible and around 30 % to the infrared. CAMS forecasts provided a reliable available energy assessment (accuracy within 10 % of that obtained from MODIS). Spatially, the dust plume resulted in a zonally-averaged reduction of GHI and DNI of the order of 150 W/m2 in southern Greece, and a mean increase of 20 W/m2 in the northern Greece as a result of lower AOD values combined with local atmospheric processes. This analysis of a real-world scenario contributes to the understanding and quantification of impact range of high aerosol loads on solar energy and the potential for forecasting power generation failures at sunshine-privileged locations where solar power plants exist, are under construction, or being planned.

scholarly journals Solar Energy Estimations in India Using Remote Sensing Technologies and Validation with Sun Photometers in Urban Areas

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akriti Masoom ◽  
Panagiotis Kosmopoulos ◽  
Ankit Bansal ◽  
Stelios Kazadzis
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Potential Conditions

Solar radiation ground data is available in poor spatial resolution, which provides an opportunity and demonstrates the necessity to consider solar irradiance modeling based on satellite data. For the first time, solar energy monitoring in near real-time has been performed for India. This study focused on the assessment of solar irradiance from the Indian Solar Irradiance Operational System (INSIOS) using operational cloud and aerosol data from INSAT-3D and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)-Monitoring Atmospheric Composition Climate (MACC), respectively. Simulations of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) were evaluated for 1 year for India at four Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations located in urban regions. The INSIOS system outputs as per radiative transfer model results presented high accuracy under clear-sky and cloudy conditions for GHI and DNI. DNI was very sensitive to the presence of cloud and aerosols, where even with small optical depths the DNI became zero, and thus it affected the accuracy of simulations under realistic atmospheric conditions. The median BSRN and INSIOS difference was found to vary from −93 to −49 W/m2 for GHI and −103 to −76 W/m2 for DNI under high solar energy potential conditions. Clouds were able to cause an underestimation of 40%, whereas for various aerosol inputs to the model, the overall accuracy was high for both irradiances, with the coefficient of determination being 0.99, whereas the penetration of photovoltaic installation, which exploits GHI, into urban environments (e.g., rooftop) could be effectively supported by the presented methodology, as estimations were reliable during high solar energy potential conditions. The results showed substantially high errors for monsoon season due to increase in cloud coverage that was not well-predicted at satellite and model resolutions.

scholarly journals Dust impact on surface solar irradiance assessed with model simulations, satellite observations and ground-based measurements

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2435-2453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis G. Kosmopoulos ◽  
Stelios Kazadzis ◽  
Michael Taylor ◽  
Eleni Athanasopoulou ◽  
Orestis Speyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Dust Event ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assesses the impact of dust on surface solar radiation focussing on an extreme dust event. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of AERONET measurements and passive and active satellite remote sensing (MODIS and CALIPSO) observations, in conjunction with radiative transfer model (RTM) and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and the 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The area of interest is the eastern Mediterranean where anomalously high aerosol loads were recorded between 30 January and 3 February 2015. The intensity of the event was extremely high, with aerosol optical depth (AOD) reaching 3.5, and optical/microphysical properties suggesting aged dust. RTM and CTM simulations were able to quantify the extent of dust impact on surface irradiances and reveal substantial reduction in solar energy exploitation capacity of PV and CSP installations under this high aerosol load. We found that such an extreme dust event can result in Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) attenuation by as much as 40–50 % and a much stronger Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) decrease (80–90 %), while spectrally this attenuation is distributed to 37 % in the UV region, 33 % in the visible and around 30 % in the infrared. CAMS forecasts provided a reliable available energy assessment (accuracy within 10 % of that obtained from MODIS). Spatially, the dust plume resulted in a zonally averaged reduction of GHI and DNI of the order of 150 W m−2 in southern Greece, and a mean increase of 20 W m−2 in the northern Greece as a result of lower AOD values combined with local atmospheric processes. This analysis of a real-world scenario contributes to the understanding and quantification of the impact range of high aerosol loads on solar energy and the potential for forecasting power generation failures at sunshine-privileged locations where solar power plants exist, are under construction or are being planned.

scholarly journals The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 873-905 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. W. Butt ◽  
A. Rap ◽  
A. Schmidt ◽  
C. E. Scott ◽  
K. J. Pringle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Residential Combustion ◽  
Combustion Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (>  30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300–497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000–827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between −66 and +21 mW m−2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m−2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations.

scholarly journals Analysis of actinic flux profiles measured from an ozonesonde balloon

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 4131-4144 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Wang ◽  
M. Allaart ◽  
W. H. Knap ◽  
P. Stammes
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Green Light ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Actinic Flux ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A green light sensor has been developed at KNMI to measure actinic flux profiles using an ozonesonde balloon. In total, 63 launches with ascending and descending profiles were performed between 2006 and 2010. The measured uncalibrated actinic flux profiles are analysed using the Doubling–Adding KNMI (DAK) radiative transfer model. Values of the cloud optical thickness (COT) along the flight track were taken from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) Cloud Physical Properties (CPP) product. The impact of clouds on the actinic flux profile is evaluated on the basis of the cloud modification factor (CMF) at the cloud top and cloud base, which is the ratio between the actinic fluxes for cloudy and clear-sky scenes. The impact of clouds on the actinic flux is clearly detected: the largest enhancement occurs at the cloud top due to multiple scattering. The actinic flux decreases almost linearly from cloud top to cloud base. Above the cloud top the actinic flux also increases compared to clear-sky scenes. We find that clouds can increase the actinic flux to 2.3 times the clear-sky value at cloud top and decrease it to about 0.05 at cloud base. The relationship between CMF and COT agrees well with DAK simulations, except for a few outliers. Good agreement is found between the DAK-simulated actinic flux profiles and the observations for single-layer clouds in fully overcast scenes. The instrument is suitable for operational balloon measurements because of its simplicity and low cost. It is worth further developing the instrument and launching it together with atmospheric chemistry composition sensors.

scholarly journals Data-Driven Localization Mappings in Filtering the Monsoon–Hadley Multicloud Convective Flows

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (4) ◽  
pp. 1197-1218
Author(s):  
Michèle De La Chevrotière ◽  
John Harlim
Keyword(s):  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Correlation Statistics ◽  
The Impact

This paper demonstrates the efficacy of data-driven localization mappings for assimilating satellite-like observations in a dynamical system of intermediate complexity. In particular, a sparse network of synthetic brightness temperature measurements is simulated using an idealized radiative transfer model and assimilated to the monsoon–Hadley multicloud model, a nonlinear stochastic model containing several thousands of model coordinates. A serial ensemble Kalman filter is implemented in which the empirical correlation statistics are improved using localization maps obtained from a supervised learning algorithm. The impact of the localization mappings is assessed in perfect-model observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) as well as in the presence of model errors resulting from the misspecification of key convective closure parameters. In perfect-model OSSEs, the localization mappings that use adjacent correlations to improve the correlation estimated from small ensemble sizes produce robust accurate analysis estimates. In the presence of model error, the filter skills of the localization maps trained on perfect- and imperfect-model data are comparable.

The impact of time-dependent stellar activity on the atmospheric chemistry and observability of exoplanets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Louca ◽  
Yamila Miguel ◽  
Shang-Min Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Emission Spectra ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Stellar Spectrum ◽  
Stellar Spectra ◽  
Chemical Tracers ◽  
Atmospheric Escape ◽  
The Impact

<p class="p1">Observations of exoplanets used to characterize the chemistry and dynamics of atmospheres have developed considerably throughout the years. Nonetheless, it remains a difficult task to give a full and detailed description using solely observations. With future space missions such as JWST and ARIEL, both expected to be launched within this decade, it becomes even more crucial to be able to fully explain and predict the underlying chemistry and physics involved. In this research, we focus on modeling star-planet interactions by using synthetic flare spectra to predict chemical tracers for future missions. We make use of a chemical kinetics code that includes synthetic time-dependent stellar spectra and thermal atmospheric escape to simulate the atmospheres of known exoplanets. Using a radiative transfer model we then retrieve emission spectra. This ongoing study is focused on various known planetary systems of which the stellar spectrum has been obtained by the (mega-)MUSCLES collaboration. Preliminary results on these systems show that stellar flares and thermal escape can have a significant effect on the chemistry in atmospheres. </p>

Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
The Impact

<p>As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.</p><p>The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).</p><p>Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.</p><p>The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014</p><p> </p>

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