scholarly journals Climatic Niche Shift during Azolla filiculoides Invasion and Its Potential Distribution under Future Scenarios

Plants ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Argantonio Rodríguez-Merino ◽  
Rocío Fernández-Zamudio ◽  
Pablo García-Murillo ◽  
Jesús Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Native Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Niche Shift ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Azolla Filiculoides ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Floating Macrophyte

In order to prevent future biological invasions, it is crucial to know non-native species distributions. We evaluated the potential global distribution of Azolla filiculoides, a free-floating macrophyte native to the Americas by using species distribution models and niche equivalency tests to analyze the degree of niche overlap between the native and invaded ranges of the species. The models were projected under two future emission scenarios, three global circulation models and two time periods. Our results indicate a possible niche shift between the distribution ranges of the species, indicating that A. filiculoides can adapt to novel environmental conditions derived from climatic differences during the invasion process. Our models also show that the future potential distribution of A. filiculoides will decrease globally, although the species could colonize new vulnerable regions where it is currently absent. We highlight that species occurrence records in the invaded area are necessary to generate accurate models, which will, in turn, improve our ability to predict potential invasion risk areas.

scholarly journals Shifts in Climatic Niche Occupation in Astrophytum Coahuilense (H. Möller) Kayser and Its Potential Distribution in Mexico

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1138
Author(s):  
Gabriel Cardoza-Martínez ◽  
Jorge Becerra-López ◽  
Citlalli Esparza-Estrada ◽  
José Estrada-Rodríguez ◽  
Alexander Czaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Principle Of Maximum Entropy ◽  
Climate Niche ◽  
Distribution Modeling ◽  
Overlap Analysis ◽  
Principle Of Maximum

It has frequently been reported that species with strong niche conservatism will not be able to adapt to new climatic conditions, so they must migrate or go extinct. We have evaluated the shifts in climatic niche occupation of the species Astrophytum coahuilense and its potential distribution in Mexico. We understand niche occupation as the geographic zones with available habitats and with the presence of the species. To assess shifts in climatic niche occupation, we used niche overlap analysis, while potential distribution modeling was performed based on the principle of maximum entropy. The results indicate that this species presents a limited amplitude in its climate niche. This restriction of the climatic niche of A. coahuilense limits its ability to colonize new geographical areas with different climatic environments. On the other hand, the potential distribution models obtained from the present study allow us to identify potential zones based on the climatic requirements of the species. This information is important to identify high priority areas for the conservation of A. coahuilense.

scholarly journals Ecological niche overlap among species of the genus Zaluzania (Asteraceae) from the dry regions of Mexico

2020 ◽  
Vol 153 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-347
Author(s):  
Mario Ernesto Suárez-Mota ◽  
José Luis Villaseñor
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Ecological Niches ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Closely Related Species ◽  
Environmental Pressures ◽  
Fundamental Niche

Background and aims – The hypothesis of ecological niche conservatism postulates that closely related species share ecologically similar environments; that is, they tend to maintain the characteristics of their fundamental niche over time. The objective of this study is to evaluate the similarity and equivalence of the ecological niches among species of the genus Zaluzania (Asteraceae), characteristic of the Mexican arid and semi-arid regions, to infer their potential niche conservatism. Methods – Based on critically reviewed herbarium occurrence data, potential distribution models for eight species of Zaluzania were generated using the Maxent algorithm. The overlap between potential distribution areas was then evaluated using equivalence and ecological niche parameters implemented in the ENMTools software; for this we quantified the degree of overlap and similarity between the niches using the equivalence (D) and similarity (I) parameters.Key results – The resulting models show that species display areas of high suitability along the Mexican dry regions, as well as overlapping heterogeneous values. All models showed high AUC (Area Under the Curve) values (> 0.8). The D and I values between each pair of species showed low values of overlap.Conclusions – Each species of the genus shows a fundamental niche distinct from their sister species. The genus thus offers an example of niche divergence among species, with each one adapting to different environmental pressures. Our results do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism in the genus, suggesting that the species evolved in divergent environments.

scholarly journals Distribution of slushflows in northern Europe and their potential change due to global warming

2001 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 237-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Sidorova ◽  
N. Belaya ◽  
V. Perov
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models

AbstractThe distribution of slushflows in northern Europe is described. Schematic maps of the beginning and ending periods of slushflow risk are presented. The months with maximum slufhflow activity are also shown. Potential changes in the geographic and temporal distribution of slushflows due to global warming were analyzed for this region. Calculations for the year 2050 were done on the basis of climatic changes given by three global circulation models. The method of calculation was based on the general relationships between climatic parameters and the geographical and temporal distribution of slushflows. Schematic maps of potential distribution of slushflows show changes when calculated according to the most extreme of the three climatic-change scenarios.

The potential distribution of the woody weed Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton (Asclepiadaceae) in Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enock O. Menge ◽  
Alyson Stobo-Wilson ◽  
Sofia L. J. Oliveira ◽  
Michael J. Lawes
Keyword(s):  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Calotropis Procera ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Average Wind Speed ◽  
Global Circulation Models

The potential spread of any invasive plant is a central concern in weed risk assessment. Calotropis procera is wind dispersed and forms extensive monospecific stands that reduce the productivity of pastoral land, but its potential distribution and drivers of its spread are not well known. Using maximum entropy methodology, we modelled current and future potential distributions of C. procera in Australia. Occurrence data (n = 5976 presence records) were collated from regional databases and a field survey. Of a set of ‘independent’ environmental correlates, those that best accounted for the observed distribution of C. procera in Australia were distance (km) to roads, average annual rainfall (mm), mean temperature (°C), average wind speed (km/h), beef density and vegetation type, in that order of importance. Current and potential distribution of C. procera was best explained by interactions between anthropogenic disturbance and climatic factors, all underpinned by species characteristics. Models were based on a grid cell size of 5 km × 5 km and model performance was good (mean AUC = 0.916; s.d. = 0.014; AUC = area under the curve; perfect fit = 1). The model showed that C. procera has not saturated its current potential distribution. Models of future spread derived from climate change projections, based on global circulation models in the ‘Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 emissions scenario for 2035’, show the area suitable for C. procera will increase, increasing the risk the weed poses. Range expansion will occur into all three states surrounding the Northern Territory, but mostly into the north-eastern border regions of Western Australia and north-western Queensland. Joint management of rubber bush at a regional scale across jurisdictions, is urgently advised to avoid future spread of rubber bush and further reductions in pastoral productivity.

scholarly journals Sympatry with the devil? Niche-based approach explains the mechanisms allowing coexistence of native and non-native salmonids

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Musseau ◽  
Simone Vincenzi ◽  
Dušan Jesenšek ◽  
Stéphanie Boulêtreau ◽  
Frédéric Santoul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainbow Trout ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Niche Breadth ◽  
Trophic Position ◽  
Isotope Analysis ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Trophic Niche ◽  
Niche Shift ◽  
Marble Trout

AbstractNiche-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain processes and mechanisms of success in the establishment of non-native species into native communities. Competition due to niche overlap may lead to native species niche shift and to native species replacement. To understand the ecological consequences of trophic interactions between non-native rainbow trout and native and endangered marble trout, we used as model system the Idrijca river (Western Slovenia) in which marble trout occurs either in allopatry (MTa) or in sympatry (MTs) with rainbow trout (RTs). We focused on different metrics of niche change such as centroid shift, niche overlap and trophic niche breadth using stable isotope analysis (δ15N and δ13C). Our results showed plasticity in niche overlap between MTs and RTs and niche shift of marble trout when occurring in sympatry with RTs, but not due to a niche replacement of MTs by RTs. Niche breadth of marble trout increases in sympatry and the trophic position during the growth period was higher for MTs than MTa.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzin Shabani ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Rashid Hamdan Saif al Shidi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Boosted Regression Tree ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Palm Trees ◽  
The Future ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.

scholarly journals Ecological niche overlap among species of the genus Zaluzania (Asteraceae) from the dry regions of Mexico

2020 ◽  
Vol 153 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-347
Author(s):  
Mario Ernesto Suárez-Mota ◽  
José Luis Villaseñor
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Ecological Niches ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Closely Related Species ◽  
Environmental Pressures ◽  
Fundamental Niche

Background and aims – The hypothesis of ecological niche conservatism postulates that closely related species share ecologically similar environments; that is, they tend to maintain the characteristics of their fundamental niche over time. The objective of this study is to evaluate the similarity and equivalence of the ecological niches among species of the genus Zaluzania (Asteraceae), characteristic of the Mexican arid and semi-arid regions, to infer their potential niche conservatism. Methods – Based on critically reviewed herbarium occurrence data, potential distribution models for eight species of Zaluzania were generated using the Maxent algorithm. The overlap between potential distribution areas was then evaluated using equivalence and ecological niche parameters implemented in the ENMTools software; for this we quantified the degree of overlap and similarity between the niches using the equivalence (D) and similarity (I) parameters.Key results – The resulting models show that species display areas of high suitability along the Mexican dry regions, as well as overlapping heterogeneous values. All models showed high AUC (Area Under the Curve) values (> 0.8). The D and I values between each pair of species showed low values of overlap.Conclusions – Each species of the genus shows a fundamental niche distinct from their sister species. The genus thus offers an example of niche divergence among species, with each one adapting to different environmental pressures. Our results do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism in the genus, suggesting that the species evolved in divergent environments.

scholarly journals Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Conservation Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

Niche shift in four non-native estrildid finches and implications for species distribution models

Ibis ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 157 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darius Stiels ◽  
Bianca Gaißer ◽  
Kathrin Schidelko ◽  
Jan O. Engler ◽  
Dennis Rödder
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Niche Shift ◽  
Distribution Models

scholarly journals Predicting the potential distribution of the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis in Canadian waters: informing a risk assessment

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
pp. 788-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Therriault ◽  
Leif-Matthias Herborg
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Ciona Intestinalis ◽  
Environmental Niche ◽  
Environmental Models ◽  
Introduced Range ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Therriault, T. W., and Herborg, L-M. 2008. Predicting the potential distribution of the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis in Canadian waters: informing a risk assessment. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 788–794. A crucial step in characterizing the potential risk posed by non-native species is determining whether a potential invader can establish in the introduced range and what its potential distribution could be. To this end, various environmental models ranging from simple to complex have been applied to predict the potential distribution of an invader, with varying levels of success. Recently, in marine waters, tunicates have received much attention, largely because of their negative impacts on shellfish aquaculture. One of these species is the vase tunicate Ciona intestinalis, which recently has had a negative impact on aquaculture operations in Atlantic Canada and could pose a risk in Pacific Canada. To inform the risk assessment of this species, we evaluated two different types of environmental model. Simple models based on reported temperature or salinity tolerances were relatively uninformative, because almost all waters were deemed suitable. In contrast, a more complex genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) environmental niche model, based on documented Canadian occurrence points, provided informative projections of the potential distribution in Canadian waters. In addition to informing risk assessments, these predictions can be used to focus monitoring activities, particularly towards vectors that could transport C. intestinalis to these favourable environments.

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