The potential distribution of the woody weed Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton (Asclepiadaceae) in Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enock O. Menge ◽  
Alyson Stobo-Wilson ◽  
Sofia L. J. Oliveira ◽  
Michael J. Lawes

The potential spread of any invasive plant is a central concern in weed risk assessment. Calotropis procera is wind dispersed and forms extensive monospecific stands that reduce the productivity of pastoral land, but its potential distribution and drivers of its spread are not well known. Using maximum entropy methodology, we modelled current and future potential distributions of C. procera in Australia. Occurrence data (n = 5976 presence records) were collated from regional databases and a field survey. Of a set of ‘independent’ environmental correlates, those that best accounted for the observed distribution of C. procera in Australia were distance (km) to roads, average annual rainfall (mm), mean temperature (°C), average wind speed (km/h), beef density and vegetation type, in that order of importance. Current and potential distribution of C. procera was best explained by interactions between anthropogenic disturbance and climatic factors, all underpinned by species characteristics. Models were based on a grid cell size of 5 km × 5 km and model performance was good (mean AUC = 0.916; s.d. = 0.014; AUC = area under the curve; perfect fit = 1). The model showed that C. procera has not saturated its current potential distribution. Models of future spread derived from climate change projections, based on global circulation models in the ‘Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 emissions scenario for 2035’, show the area suitable for C. procera will increase, increasing the risk the weed poses. Range expansion will occur into all three states surrounding the Northern Territory, but mostly into the north-eastern border regions of Western Australia and north-western Queensland. Joint management of rubber bush at a regional scale across jurisdictions, is urgently advised to avoid future spread of rubber bush and further reductions in pastoral productivity.

Plants ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Argantonio Rodríguez-Merino ◽  
Rocío Fernández-Zamudio ◽  
Pablo García-Murillo ◽  
Jesús Muñoz

In order to prevent future biological invasions, it is crucial to know non-native species distributions. We evaluated the potential global distribution of Azolla filiculoides, a free-floating macrophyte native to the Americas by using species distribution models and niche equivalency tests to analyze the degree of niche overlap between the native and invaded ranges of the species. The models were projected under two future emission scenarios, three global circulation models and two time periods. Our results indicate a possible niche shift between the distribution ranges of the species, indicating that A. filiculoides can adapt to novel environmental conditions derived from climatic differences during the invasion process. Our models also show that the future potential distribution of A. filiculoides will decrease globally, although the species could colonize new vulnerable regions where it is currently absent. We highlight that species occurrence records in the invaded area are necessary to generate accurate models, which will, in turn, improve our ability to predict potential invasion risk areas.


Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.


1934 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. R. S. Morris

SummaryA detailed study of the bionomics ofGlossina longipalpis, Wied., was undertaken at Takoradi, the principal port of the Gold Coast in West Africa, and lasted from February to September 1931.The topography of this country is undulating; the vegetation is of Transition Forest type, intermediate in character between Rain Forest and Savannah Forest, and of an exceedingly dense, homogeneous nature, with a few small glades in the forest, and interrupted by large open marshes on the lower and flatter ground.The climate is remarkably equable, with a low mean annual rainfall between 40 and 45 inches, but constantly high humidities, owing to the moisture-laden sea-winds. There is a double rainy season, the main rains from April to July, and a second shorter period of rainfall in October and November.There is a rich mammalian fauna, with the exception of the larger game animals.Three species ofGlossinaoccur:G. longipalpis, Wied., the commonest, evenly distributed throughout the bush, and the only species dealt with in this paper;G. palpalis, R.-D., confined to water-courses and the edges of lagoons; andG. medicorum, Aust., rarely met with.Two isolated fly-belts, identical in every way, were studied. In one, section A, flies were caught and killed daily; in the other, section B, the control area, the flies were liberated after noting the catches. By September, the tsetse population of A had been reduced to less than one-third of that of B, presumably the effects of catching and killing.The main food hosts of this species were the bushbuck and duiker, ubiquitous in this forest. When these small game animals were driven out of a third fly-belt, section C, by farming and wood-cutting, the fly quickly and completely disappeared. This species was never found to feed on reptiles, although they were common in the fly-belts.Meteorological observations in the open country and in the fly-belts showed a consistently lower temperature and higher humidity in the latter, as well as its greater equity in these factors. The movement of the fly into the open was apparently governed by humidity, the greatest movement taking place when the humidity of the open was within the normal range of fly-belt humidity.By statistical methods, coefficients of correlation were determined for the fly's density-activity and various climatic factors of the fly-belt. The fly showed a high positive correlation with temperature, and a lower correlation with humidity, of which saturation deficit was a better index than atmometer evaporation. There was a significant correlation with sunshine, but none with rainfall. This correlation with humidity was mainly a temperature effect, as was also the correlation with sunshine. Temperature was evidently of major importance. There was a significant negative correlation between fly and relative humidity, measured with a wet and dry bulb hygrometer in a screen in the open.All correlations were greatest when considered direct, the fly catches with simultaneous climatic readings, indicating that these factors influence the activity of the fly in this way, rather than its density. The fly was found to be inactive at temperatures below 74°F., with high humidities of 80 or 90 per cent. or over. This explains the major influence of temperature, shown by the methods of correlations. The temperature range in the fly-belt, during the period of observations, was close to the temperature significant for the fly's activity, and therefore variations produced marked reactions; the humidity range was much closer to the fly's optimum and therefore better tolerated.There is marked daily rhythm in the fly's activity, which is only influenced by climate under extremely unfavourable conditions of temperature or humidity.The distribution ofG. longipalpisin the Gold Coast is dependent upon the humidity of the ecoclimate, rather than upon temperature. It occurs in three main vegetational types—Transition Forest, Inland Savannah Forest, and Coastal Savannah— where the range of humidities is between 50 and 80 per cent. R.H., and temperature between 75° and 85°F. It does not occur in the Rain Forest, where the relative humidity is constantly above 80 per cent., or in northern Savannah, where the humidity is as low as 30 per cent, in the dry season.The main breeding season was from March to July with its maximum in May, at the height of the rains.This species was found infected withTrypanosoma gambiense,T. congolense, andT. vivaxat Takoradi, and is probably second in importance toG. palpalisas a vector of sleeping sickness in the Gold Coast, but at present of less importance thanG. palpalisorG. tachinoidesin the transmission of trypanosomiasis of stock.The receding of the Ashanti forest and the present development of the Colony may cause even greater contact between this species of tsetse and man. The main policy for control should lie in improving and controlling the natives' methods of cultivating the bush. Farms should be as close to the village as possible, contiguous, and kept under cultivation, if possible, permanently. Clearings should be made of at least 100 yards width round bush villages, and of at least 200 yards width round important towns. Small clearings and isolated farms are considered a danger.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 315
Author(s):  
Hilal Ahmad ◽  
Chen Ningsheng ◽  
Mahfuzur Rahman ◽  
Md Monirul Islam ◽  
Hamid Reza Pourghasemi ◽  
...  

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project passes through the Karakoram Highway in northern Pakistan, which is one of the most hazardous regions of the world. The most common hazards in this region are landslides and debris flows, which result in loss of life and severe infrastructure damage every year. This study assessed geohazards (landslides and debris flows) and developed susceptibility maps by considering four standalone machine-learning and statistical approaches, namely, Logistic Regression (LR), Shannon Entropy (SE), Weights-of-Evidence (WoE), and Frequency Ratio (FR) models. To this end, geohazard inventories were prepared using remote sensing techniques with field observations and historical hazard datasets. The spatial relationship of thirteen conditioning factors, namely, slope (degree), distance to faults, geology, elevation, distance to rivers, slope aspect, distance to road, annual mean rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index, profile curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, and land cover, with hazard distribution was analyzed. The results showed that faults, slope angles, elevation, lithology, land cover, and mean annual rainfall play a key role in controlling the spatial distribution of geohazards in the study area. The final susceptibility maps were validated against ground truth points and by plotting Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curves. According to the AUROC curves, the success rates of the LR, WoE, FR, and SE models were 85.30%, 76.00, 74.60%, and 71.40%, and their prediction rates were 83.10%, 75.00%, 73.50%, and 70.10%, respectively; these values show higher performance of LR over the other three models. Furthermore, 11.19%, 9.24%, 10.18%, 39.14%, and 30.25% of the areas corresponded to classes of very-high, high, moderate, low, and very-low susceptibility, respectively. The developed geohazard susceptibility map can be used by relevant government officials for the smooth implementation of the CPEC project at the regional scale.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlon Calispa ◽  
Raphaël van Ypersele ◽  
Benoît Pereira ◽  
Sebastián Páez-Bimos ◽  
Veerle Vanacker ◽  
...  

<p>The Ecuadorian páramo, a neotropical ecosystem located in the upper Andes, acts as a constant source of high-quality water. It also stores significant amounts of C at the regional scale. In this region, volcanic ash soils sustain most of the paramo, and C storage results partly from their propensity to accumulate organic matter. Vegetation type is known to influence the balance between plant C inputs and soil C losses, ultimately affecting the soil organic C (SOC) content and stock. Tussock-forming grass (spp. Calamagrostis Intermedia; TU), cushion-like plants (spp. Azorella pedunculata; CU) and shrubs and trees (Polylepis stands) are commonly found in the páramo. Our understanding of SOC stocks and dynamics in the páramo remains limited, despite mounting concerns that human activities are increasingly affecting vegetation and potentially, the capacity of these ecosystems to store C.</p><p>Here, we compare the organic C content and stock in soils under tussock-forming grass (spp. Calamagrostis Intermedia; TU) and soils under cushion-like plants (spp. Azorella pedunculata; CU). The study took place at Jatunhuayco, a watershed on the western slopes of Antisana volcano in the northern Ecuadorian Andes. Two areas of similar size (~0.35 km<sup>2</sup>) were surveyed. Fourty soil samples were collected randomly in each area to depths varying from 10 to 30 cm (A horizon) and from 30 to 75 cm (2Ab horizon). The soils are Vitric Andosols and the 2Ab horizon corresponds to a soil buried by the tephra fall from the Quilotoa eruption about 800 yr. BP. Sixteen intact soil samples were collected in Kopecky's cylinders for bulk density (BD) determination of each horizon.</p><p>The average SOC content in the A horizon of the CU sites (9.4±0.5%) is significantly higher (Mann-Whitney U test, p<0.05) than that of the TU sites (8.0±0.4%), probably reflecting a larger input of root biomass from the cushion-forming plants. The 2Ab horizon contains less organic C (i.e. TU: 4.3±0.3% and CU: 4.0±0.4%) than the A horizon, but the SOC contents are undistinguishable between the two vegetation types. This suggests that the influence of vegetation type on SOC is limited to the A horizon. The average SOC stocks (in the first 30 cm from the soil) for TU and CU are 20.04±1.1 and 18.23±1.0 kg/m<sup>2</sup>,<sup></sup>respectively. These values are almost two times greater than the global average reported for Vitric Andosols (~8.2 kg/m<sup>2</sup> ), but are lower than the estimates obtained for some wetter Andean páramos (22.5±5 kg/m<sup>2</sup>, 270% higher rainfall) from Ecuador. Our stock values further indicate that vegetation type has a limited effect on C storage in the young volcanic ash soils found at Jatunhuyaco. Despite a higher SOC content, the CU soils store a stock of organic C similar to that estimated for the TU soils. This likely reflects the comparatively lower BD of the former soils (650±100 vs. 840±30 kg/m<sup>3</sup>). Additional studies are needed in order to establish the vegetation-related factors driving the SOC content and stability in the TU and CU soils.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Ruggiu ◽  
Salvatore Urru ◽  
Roberto Deidda ◽  
Francesco Viola

<p>The assessment of climate change and land use modifications effects on hydrological cycle is challenging. We propose an approach based on Budyko theory to investigate the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic drivers on water resources availability. As an example of application, the proposed approach is implemented in the island of Sardinia (Italy), which is affected by important processes of both climate and land use modifications. In details, the proposed methodology assumes the Fu’s equation to describe the mechanisms of water partitioning at regional scale and uses the probability distributions of annual runoff (Q) in a closed form. The latter is parametrized by considering simple long-term climatic info (namely first orders statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) and land use properties of basins.</p><p>In order to investigate the possible near future water availability of Sardinia, several climate and land use scenarios have been considered, referring to 2006-2050 and 2051-2100 periods. Climate scenarios have been generated considering fourteen bias corrected outputs of climatic models from EUROCORDEX’s project (RCP 8.5), while three land use scenarios have been created following the last century tendencies.</p><p>Results show that the distribution of annual runoff in Sardinia could be significantly affected by both climate and land use change. The near future distribution of Q generally displayed a decrease in mean and variance compared to the baseline.   </p><p>The reduction of  Q is more critical moving from 2006-2050 to 2051-2100 period, according with climatic trends, namely due to the reduction of annual rainfall and the increase of potential evapotranspiration. The effect of LU change on Q distribution is weaker than the climatic one, but not negligible.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 540 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. G. O'Connor ◽  
C. M. Mulqueeny ◽  
P. S. Goodman

Fire pattern is predicted to vary across an African savanna in accordance with spatial variation in rainfall through its effects on fuel production, vegetation type (on account of differences in fuel load and in flammability), and distribution of herbivores (because of their effects on fuel load). These predictions were examined for the 23 651-ha Mkuzi Game Reserve, KwaZulu-Natal, based on a 37-year data set. Fire return period varied from no occurrence to a fire every 1.76 years. Approximately 75% of the reserve experienced a fire approximately every 5 years, 25% every 4.1–2.2 years and less than 1% every 2 years on average. Fire return period decreased in relation to an increase in mean annual rainfall. For terrestrial vegetation types, median fire return periods decreased with increasing herbaceous biomass, from forest that did not burn to grasslands that burnt every 2.64 years. Fire was absent from some permanent wetlands but seasonal wetlands burnt every 5.29 years. Grazer biomass above 0.5 animal units ha–1 had a limiting influence on the maximum fire frequency of fire-prone vegetation types. The primary determinant of long-term spatial fire patterns is thus fuel load as determined by mean rainfall, vegetation type, and the effects of grazing herbivores.


2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2425-2441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Smeraldo ◽  
Mirko Di Febbraro ◽  
Luciano Bosso ◽  
Carles Flaquer ◽  
David Guixé ◽  
...  

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