scholarly journals A Local and Time Resolution of the COVID-19 Propagation—A Two-Dimensional Approach for Germany Including Diffusion Phenomena to Describe the Spatial Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 536-548
Author(s):  
Günter Bärwolff
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Border Crossings ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Federal States ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Diffusion Phenomena ◽  
German Situation

The understanding of factors that affect the dissemination of a viral infection is fundamental to help combat it. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic that changed the lives of people all over the world, one observes regions with different incidences of cases. One can speculate that population density might be one of the variables that affect the incidence of cases. In populous areas, such as big cities or congested urban areas, higher COVID-19 incidences could be observed than in rural regions. It is natural to think that if population density is such an important factor, then a gradient or difference in population density might lead to a diffusion process that will proceed until equilibrium is reached. The aim of this paper consists of the inclusion of a diffusion concept into the COVID-19 modeling. With this concept, one covers a gradient-driven transfer of the infection next to epidemic growth models (SIR-type models). This is discussed for a certain period of the German situation based on the quite different incidence data for the different federal states of Germany. With this ansatz, some phenomena of the actual development of the pandemic are found to be confirmed. The model provides a possibility to investigate certain scenarios, such as border-crossings or local spreading events, and their influence on the COVID-19 propagation. The resulting information can be a basis for the decisions of politicians and medical persons in charge of managing a pandemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 propagation by diffusion - a two-dimensional approach for Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Günter Bärwolff
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Border Crossings ◽  
Dimensional Approach ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Federal States ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Voltage Difference ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
German Situation

AbstractDiffusion comes anytime and everywhere. If there is a gradient or a potential difference of a quantity a diffusion process happens and this ends if an equilibrium is reached only. The concentration of a species maybe such quantity, or the voltage. An electric currant will be driven by a voltage difference for example.In this COVID-19 pandemic one observes both regions with low incidence and other ones with high incidence. The local different people density could be a reason for that. In populous areas like big cities or congested urban areas higher COVID-19 incidences could be observed than in rural regions.The aim of this paper consists in the application of a diffusion concept to describe one possible issue of the the COVID-19 propagation.This will be discussed for the German situation based on the quite different incidence data for the different federal states of Germany.With this ansatz some phenomenoms of the actual development of the pandemic could be confirmed. The model gives a possibility to investigate certain scenarios like border-crossings or local spreading events and their influence on the COVID-19 propagation as well.

scholarly journals Correlating elements content in mosses collected in 2015 across Germany with spatially associated characteristics of sampling sites and their surroundings

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Nickel ◽  
Winfried Schröder
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Atmospheric Deposition ◽  
Vegetation Structure ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Spatial Density ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Tree Layer

Abstract Background The aim of the study was a statistical evaluation of the statistical relevance of potentially explanatory variables (atmospheric deposition, meteorology, geology, soil, topography, sampling, vegetation structure, land-use density, population density, potential emission sources) correlated with the content of 12 heavy metals and nitrogen in mosses collected from 400 sites across Germany in 2015. Beyond correlation analysis, regression analysis was performed using two methods: random forest regression and multiple linear regression in connection with commonality analysis. Results The strongest predictor for the content of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and N in mosses was the sampled species. In 2015, the atmospheric deposition showed a lower predictive power compared to earlier campaigns. The mean precipitation (2013–2015) is a significant factor influencing the content of Cd, Pb and Zn in moss samples. Altitude (Cu, Hg and Ni) and slope (Cd) are the strongest topographical predictors. With regard to 14 vegetation structure measures studied, the distance to adjacent tree stands is the strongest predictor (Cd, Cu, Hg, Zn, N), followed by the tree layer height (Cd, Hg, Pb, N), the leaf area index (Cd, N, Zn), and finally the coverage of the tree layer (Ni, Cd, Hg). For forests, the spatial density in radii 100–300 km predominates as significant predictors for Cu, Hg, Ni and N. For the urban areas, there are element-specific different radii between 25 and 300 km (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, N) and for agricultural areas usually radii between 50 and 300 km, in which the respective land use is correlated with the element contents. The population density in the 50 and 100 km radius is a variable with high explanatory power for all elements except Hg and N. Conclusions For Europe-wide analyses, the population density and the proportion of different land-use classes up to 300 km around the moss sampling sites are recommended.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Government Policies in Controlling COVID-19 in India

2020 ◽  
pp. 002073142098374
Author(s):  
Ashutosh Pandey ◽  
Nitin Kishore Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Population Number

The purpose of this study is to find the demographic factors associated with the spread of COVID-19 and to suggest a measure for identifying the effectiveness of government policies in controlling COVID-19. The study hypothesizes that the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 patients depends on the urban population, rural population, number of persons older than 50, population density, and poverty rate. A log-linear model is used to test the stated hypothesis, with the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 patients up to period [Formula: see text] as a dependent variable and demographic factors as an independent variable. The policy effectiveness indicator is calculated by taking the difference of the COVID rank of the [Formula: see text]th state based on the predicted model and the actual COVID rank of the [Formula: see text]th state[Formula: see text]Our study finds that the urban population significantly impacts the spread of COVID-19. On the other hand, demographic factors such as rural population, density, and age structure do not impact the spread of COVID-19 significantly. Thus, people residing in urban areas face a significant threat of COVID-19 as compared to people in rural areas.

The Rural-Urban Continuum of Polarization: Understanding the Geography of the 2018 Midterms

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth M. Johnson ◽  
Dante J. Scala
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rural America ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Urban America ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas ◽  
The Continuum

Abstract This study of the 2018 congressional midterms demonstrates how voting patterns and political attitudes vary across a spectrum of urban and rural areas in the United States. Rural America is no more a monolith than is urban America. The rural-urban gradient is better represented by a continuum than a dichotomy. This is evident in the voting results in 2018, just as it was in 2016. We found that the political tipping point lies beyond major metropolitan areas, in the suburban counties of smaller metropolitan areas. Democrats enjoyed even greater success in densely populated urban areas in 2018 than in 2016. Residents of these urban areas display distinctive and consistent social and political attitudes across a range of scales. At the other end of the continuum in remote rural areas, Republican candidates continued to command voter support despite the challenging national political environment. Voters in these rural regions expressed social and political attitudes diametrically opposed to their counterparts in large urban cores.

scholarly journals Regional differences in reasons for consultation and general practitioners’ spectrum of services in Northern Germany – Results of a cross-sectional observational study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingmar Schäfer ◽  
Heike Hansen ◽  
Thomas Ruppel ◽  
Dagmar Lühmann ◽  
Hans-Otto Wagner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Medical Training ◽  
Practice Trial ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Federal States ◽  
German Federal States ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Individual Consultation

Abstract Background Among other factors, the patients’ consultation reasons and GPs’ spectrum of services determine the process and outcome of the medical treatment. So far, however, there has been little information on differences in reasons for consultation and GPs’ services between urban and rural areas. Our study’s goal was thus to investigate these factors in relation to the regional location of GPs’ practices. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional observational study based on standardised GP interviews in a quota sampling design. All counties and independent cities within a radius of 120 km around Hamburg were divided into three regional categories (urban area, environs, rural area) and stratified proportionally to the population size. Differences in the number of reasons for consultation and services were analysed by multivariate linear regressions in mixed models adjusted for random effects on the levels of the German federal states and administrative districts. Differences in individual consultation reasons and services were identified by logistic regression via stepwise forward and backward selection. Results Primary care practices in 34 of the 37 selected administrative districts (91.9%) were represented in the dataset. In total, 211 GPs were personally interviewed. On average, GPs saw 344 patients per month with a slightly higher number of patients in rural areas. They reported 59.1 ± 15.4 different reasons for consultation and 30.3 + 3.9 different services. There was no statistically significant regional variation in the number of different consultation reasons, but there was a broader service spectrum by rural GPs (ß=-1.42; 95% confidence interval -2.75/-0.08; p=0.038) which was statistically explained by a higher level of medical training. Additionally, there were differences in the frequency of individual consultation reasons and services between rural and urban areas. Conclusion GPs in rural areas performed more frequently services usually provided by medical specialists in urban areas. This might be caused by a low availability of specialists in rural areas. The association between medical training and service spectrum might imply that GPs compensate the specific needs of their patients by completing advanced medical training before or after setting up a medical practice. Trial registration The study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02558322).

scholarly journals Modelling of Social Policy and Initiatives under COVID-19: Rural NEET Youth Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 393
Author(s):  
Giedrė Kvieskienė ◽  
Ilze Ivanova ◽  
Karmen Trasberg ◽  
Viktorija Stasytytė ◽  
Eglė Celiešienė
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Young People ◽  
Social Exclusion ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Rural Regions

NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) youth rates in Europe are generally higher in rural regions than in urban areas and the share in rural regions is constantly increasing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, young people became even more vulnerable as they experienced social exclusion and mental health problems. The objective of this paper is to analyse NEET youth-related statistics in Europe and distinguish positive initiatives for young people in rural areas of the Baltic countries to encourage positive emotions and willingness to learn. Statistical analysis and case study methods were employed. Data on youth unemployment, NEET youth by age and gender, and poverty and social exclusion of young people, is analysed. Social policy initiatives in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, mainly from rural municipalities, are presented and discussed. This research determines the key issues related to NEET youth and proposes initiatives to overcome existing problems among young people. Such social initiatives aim to promote positive social emotions of youth, promote their inclusion in society, and foster regional sustainability.

scholarly journals Travel distance and human movement predict paths of emergence and spatial spread of chikungunya in Thailand

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (13) ◽  
pp. 1654-1662 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Chadsuthi ◽  
B. M. Althouse ◽  
S. Iamsirithaworn ◽  
W. Triampo ◽  
K. H. Grantz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Movement ◽  
Spatial Distance ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Rubber Plantation ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Southern Thailand ◽  
The Impact

AbstractHuman movement contributes to the probability that pathogens will be introduced to new geographic locations. Here we investigate the impact of human movement on the spatial spread of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Southern Thailand during a recent re-emergence. We hypothesised that human movement, population density, the presence of habitat conducive to vectors, rainfall and temperature affect the transmission of CHIKV and the spatiotemporal pattern of cases seen during the emergence. We fit metapopulation transmission models to CHIKV incidence data. The dates at which incidence in each of 151 districts in Southern Thailand exceeded specified thresholds were the target of model fits. We confronted multiple alternative models to determine which factors were most influential in the spatial spread. We considered multiple measures of spatial distance between districts and adjacency networks and also looked for evidence of long-distance translocation (LDT) events. The best fit model included driving-distance between districts, human movement, rubber plantation area and three LDT events. This work has important implications for predicting the spatial spread and targeting resources for control in future CHIKV emergences. Our modelling framework could also be adapted to other disease systems where population mobility may drive the spatial advance of outbreaks.

A Decade of Upheaval

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew G. Walder ◽  
Dong Guoqiang
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Revolution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Mao Zedong ◽  
Chinese History ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
Modern Chinese History ◽  
Political Groups ◽  
The Cultural Revolution

This book chronicles the surprising and dramatic political conflicts of a rural Chinese county over the course of the Cultural Revolution. The book uncovers a previously unimagined level of strife in the countryside that began with the Red Guard Movement in 1966 and continued unabated until the death of Mao Zedong in 1976. Showing how the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution were not limited to urban areas, but reached far into isolated rural regions, the book reveals that the intervention of military forces in 1967 encouraged factional divisions in Feng County because different branches of China's armed forces took various sides in local disputes. The book also lays bare how the fortunes of local political groups were closely tethered to unpredictable shifts in the decisions of government authorities in Beijing. Eventually, a backlash against suppression and victimization grew in the early 1970s and resulted in active protests, which presaged the settling of scores against radical Maoism. A meticulous look at how one overlooked region experienced the Cultural Revolution, the book illuminates the all-encompassing nature of one of the most unstable periods in modern Chinese history.

scholarly journals Global Variation in Climate, Human Development, and Population Density Has Implications for Urban Ecosystem Services

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Richards ◽  
Mahyar Masoudi ◽  
Rachel R. Y. Oh ◽  
Erik S. Yando ◽  
Jingyuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Ecosystem ◽  
Urban Ecosystem Services ◽  
Global Variation ◽  
The World ◽  
Tropical Cities ◽  
Future Work

Humans rely upon ecosystem services to regulate their environment and to provide resources and cultural benefits. As the world’s urban population grows, it becomes increasingly important to find ways of improving the provision of ecosystem services in urban areas. However, the kinds of ecosystem services that are most needed or demanded by urban populations, and the opportunities to provide these, vary widely in cities around the world. Here we explore variation in climate, Human Development Index (HDI), and population density, and discuss their implications for providing and managing urban ecosystem services. Using 221 published studies of urban ecosystem services, we analyse the extent to which existing research adequately covers global variation in climatic and social conditions. Our results reveal an under-representation of studies from tropical cities and from lower HDI countries, with implications for how we conceptualize and quantify urban ecosystem services, and how we transfer benefits across case studies. Future work should be aimed at correcting these deficits and determining the extent to which conclusions about urban ecosystem services are transferable from one city to another.

scholarly journals The association between self-harm and area-level characteristics in Northern Ireland: an ecological study

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 948-953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eve Griffin ◽  
Brendan Bonner ◽  
Christina B Dillon ◽  
Denise O’Hagan ◽  
Paul Corcoran
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Suicidal Behaviour ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Self Harm ◽  
Deprived Areas

Abstract Background Factors contributing to suicidal behaviour are complex and multi-faceted. This study took an ecological approach to examine the association between area-level factors and rates of self-harm in Northern Ireland. Methods Data on self-harm presentations to emergency departments (EDs) were obtained from the Northern Ireland Self-harm Registry. The study included residents of Northern Ireland aged 16–64 years. Deprivation was measured using the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2017. Population density and social fragmentation were calculated using measures from the 2011 census. Associations between area-level factors and self-harm rates were explored using negative binomial regression. Results Between 2013 and 2015, 14 477 individuals aged 16–64 years presented to EDs in Northern Ireland following self-harm. The rate of self-harm was 472 per 100 000 and was higher for male residents (478 vs. 467). Self-harm rates were highest in urban areas—680 per 100 000 in Belfast City and 751 per 100 000 in Derry City. Rates of self-harm in Northern Ireland were more than four times higher in the most deprived areas. A positive association with rates of self-harm held for the deprivation domains of employment, crime, education, health and income. There was a moderate association with population density. Some gender differences emerged, with associations with male rates of self-harm more pronounced. Conclusion These findings indicate that self-harm rates are highest for those residing in highly deprived areas, where unemployment, crime and low level of education are challenges. Community interventions tailored to meet the needs of specific areas may be effective in reducing suicidal behaviour.

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