scholarly journals Modelling Population Dynamics of Social Protests in Time and Space: The Reaction-Diffusion Approach

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Petrovskii ◽  
Weam Alharbi ◽  
Abdulqader Alhomairi ◽  
Andrew Morozov
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Spatial Extension ◽  
Spatial Systems ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Powerful Research Tool ◽  
Spatial Aspect

Understanding of the dynamics of riots, protests, and social unrest more generally is important in order to ensure a stable, sustainable development of various social groups, as well as the society as a whole. Mathematical models of social dynamics have been increasingly recognized as a powerful research tool to facilitate the progress in this field. However, the question as to what should be an adequate mathematical framework to describe the corresponding social processes is largely open. In particular, a great majority of the previous studies dealt with non-spatial or spatially implicit systems, but the literature dealing with spatial systems remains meagre. Meanwhile, in many cases, the dynamics of social protests has a clear spatial aspect. In this paper, we attempt to close this gap partially by considering a spatial extension of a few recently developed models of social protests. We show that even a straightforward spatial extension immediately bring new dynamical behaviours, in particular predicting a new scenario of the protests’ termination.

scholarly journals The Yellow Vests Movement - a case of long transient dynamics?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Morozov ◽  
Sergei Petrovskii ◽  
Sergey Gavrilets
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Transient Dynamics ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Powerful Research Tool

Understanding the dynamics of protests and social unrest is important in order to ensure a stable, sustainable development of the society. Mathematical models of social dynamics have been increasingly recognised as a powerful research tool in achieving this goal. Here, motivated by the fact that the dynamics of the ongoing Yellow Vest Movement in France exhibit anomalously long duration (currently it is in 30th week), we explore whether this can be a result of a dynamical systems phenomenon known as long transients. To this end, we build and study a hierarchy of mathematical models describing the "population dynamics" of the movement, i.e. how the number of protesters changes with time. We show that in these models long transients appear via two roots: via a ghost attractor and via an interaction of the slow and fast dynamics. We demonstrate that long transients are also present in some earlier models of social protests. Interestingly, our models predict that the Yellow Vest Movement should end abruptly by, at the latest, mid-summer 2019 without any interference from the French government. More generally, we argue that long transients are a generic feature of dynamical models describing social processes in the same way as they are in models of physical, ecological, and evolutionary systems.

scholarly journals The Basis of Social Protests in Georgia in 2019

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-25
Author(s):  
Faustyna Mijalska ◽  
Jarosław Kardaś
Keyword(s):  
External Factors ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
Research Hypothesis ◽  
International Policies ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Internal And External Factors

Coming to power in 2012, the Georgian Dream promised changes expected by Georgian society that was torn between striving for peace and prosperity, following the example of Western countries, and stabilizing relations with Russia. After seven years, this promise was not fulfilled, and the citizens were bitter about the internal and international policies of Bidzina Ivanishvili. For the purpose of this article, the research hypothesis was formulated that in June 2019 social protests broke out in the capital of Georgia, because the activities of the party headed by Bidzina Ivanishvili resulted in decreased social confidence in this formation. The authors of the article analyzed the activities of Bidzina Ivanishvili which might have sparked social unrest and identified the internal and external factors that resulted in the shrinking social confidence in Georgian authorities in recent years. The authors presented also the events of June 20, 2019, when thousands of people gathered in front of the Georgian parliament building to express their discontent with the presence of the deputy of Russian Duma, Sergei Gavrilov, at the parliamentary session, which resulted in nationwide protests.

scholarly journals Inequality, Social Protests and Civil War

OASIS ◽  
2017 ◽  
pp. 25-39
Author(s):  
Fabio Andrés Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Democratic Consolidation ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
The World ◽  
Do So

The following article presents a series of hypotheses to analyze the possible transitions between protest and civil war and their relation to inequality. To do so, the article presents an analysis on the emergence of protests and its relation with the increase in inequality across the world. This increase in inequality can in fact lead to social unrest, instability and in some cases facilitate the emergence of future armed conflicts. Thus this scenario of increased inequality presents different possible trajectories: 1) protest generated by inequality can escalate into civil conflicts and civil war, or 2) protest generated by inequality can facilitate processes of participation and democratic consolidation. The possibility of either of these transitions taking place is defined by the structural conditions that define the interactions between protestors and authorities in particular settings.

scholarly journals Diffusivity Estimation for Activator–Inhibitor Models: Theory and Application to Intracellular Dynamics of the Actin Cytoskeleton

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregor Pasemann ◽  
Sven Flemming ◽  
Sergio Alonso ◽  
Carsten Beta ◽  
Wilhelm Stannat
Keyword(s):  
Actin Cytoskeleton ◽  
Intracellular Signaling ◽  
Model Organism ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Joint Estimation ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Reaction Diffusion Systems ◽  
Activator Inhibitor

AbstractA theory for diffusivity estimation for spatially extended activator–inhibitor dynamics modeling the evolution of intracellular signaling networks is developed in the mathematical framework of stochastic reaction–diffusion systems. In order to account for model uncertainties, we extend the results for parameter estimation for semilinear stochastic partial differential equations, as developed in Pasemann and Stannat (Electron J Stat 14(1):547–579, 2020), to the problem of joint estimation of diffusivity and parametrized reaction terms. Our theoretical findings are applied to the estimation of effective diffusivity of signaling components contributing to intracellular dynamics of the actin cytoskeleton in the model organism Dictyostelium discoideum.

scholarly journals Modelling the spatiotemporal complexity of interactions between pathogenic bacteria and a phage with a temperature-dependent life cycle switch

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Halil I. Egilmez ◽  
Andrew Yu. Morozov ◽  
Edouard E. Galyov
Keyword(s):  
Burkholderia Pseudomallei ◽  
Pathogenic Bacteria ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Natural Control ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Highly Pathogenic ◽  
Soil Layers ◽  
Spatial Aspect

AbstractWe apply mathematical modelling to explore bacteria-phage interaction mediated by condition-dependent lysogeny, where the type of the phage infection cycle (lytic or lysogenic) is determined by the ambient temperature. In a natural environment, daily and seasonal variations of the temperature cause a frequent switch between the two infection scenarios, making the bacteria-phage interaction with condition-dependent lysogeny highly complex. As a case study, we explore the natural control of the pathogenic bacteria Burkholderia pseudomallei by its dominant phage. B. pseudomallei is the causative agent of melioidosis, which is among the most fatal diseases in Southeast Asia and across the world. We assess the spatial aspect of B. pseudomallei-phage interactions in soil, which has been so far overlooked in the literature, using the reaction-diffusion PDE-based framework with external forcing through daily and seasonal parameter variation. Through extensive computer simulations for realistic biological parameters, we obtain results suggesting that phages may regulate B. pseudomallei numbers across seasons in endemic areas, and that the abundance of highly pathogenic phage-free bacteria shows a clear annual cycle. The model predicts particularly dangerous soil layers characterised by high pathogen densities. Our findings can potentially help refine melioidosis prevention and monitoring practices.

scholarly journals Modeling latent infection transmissions through biosocial stochastic dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bosiljka Tadic ◽  
Roderick Melnik
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Latent Infection ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Hospital Environment ◽  
Medical Emergency ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
New Host ◽  
Infection Transmission

The events of the recent SARS-CoV-02 epidemics have shown the importance of social factors, especially given the large number of asymptomatic cases that effectively spread the virus, which can cause a medical emergency to very susceptible individuals. Besides, the SARS-CoV-02 virus survives for several hours on different surfaces, where a new host can contract it with a delay. These passive modes of infection transmission remain an unexplored area for traditional mean-field epidemic models. Here, we design an agent-based model for simulations of infection transmission in an open system driven by the dynamics of social activity; the model takes into account the personal characteristics of individuals, as well as the survival time of the virus and its potential mutations. A growing bipartite graph embodies this biosocial process, consisting of active carriers (host) nodes that produce viral nodes during their infectious period. With its directed edges passing through viral nodes between two successive hosts, this graph contains complete information about the routes leading to each infected individual. We determine temporal fluctuations of the number of exposed and the number of infected individuals, the number of active carriers and active viruses at hourly resolution. The simulated processes underpin the latent infection transmissions, contributing significantly to the spread of the virus within a large time window. More precisely, being brought by social dynamics and exposed to the currently existing infection, an individual passes through the infectious state until eventually spontaneously recovers or otherwise is moves to a controlled hospital environment. Our results reveal complex feedback mechanisms that shape the dependence of the infection curve on the intensity of social dynamics and other sociobiological factors. In particular, the results show how the lockdown effectively reduces the spread of infection and how it increases again after the lockdown is removed. Furthermore, a reduced level of social activity but prolonged exposure of susceptible individuals have adverse effects. On the other hand, virus mutations that can gradually reduce the transmission rate by hopping to each new host along the infection path can significantly reduce the extent of the infection, but can not stop the spreading without additional social strategies. Our stochastic processes, based on graphs at the interface of biology and social dynamics, provide a new mathematical framework for simulations of various epidemic control strategies with high temporal resolution and virus traceability.

scholarly journals A metabolic reaction–diffusion model for PKCα translocation via PIP2 hydrolysis in an endothelial cell

2020 ◽  
Vol 477 (20) ◽  
pp. 4071-4084
Author(s):  
Toshihiro Sera ◽  
Shiro Higa ◽  
Yan Zeshu ◽  
Kyosuke Takahi ◽  
Satoshi Miyamoto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Endothelial Cell ◽  
Cell Function ◽  
Cell Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Metabolic Reaction ◽  
Membrane Domain ◽  
Reaction Diffusion Model ◽  
A Cell

Hydrolysis of the phospholipid phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PIP2) at the cell membrane induces the release of inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP3) into the cytoplasm and diffusion of diacylglycerol (DAG) through the membrane, respectively. Release of IP3 subsequently increases Ca2+ levels in the cytoplasm, which results in activation of protein kinase C α (PKCα) by Ca2+ and DAG, and finally the translocation of PKCα from the cytoplasm to the membrane. In this study, we developed a metabolic reaction–diffusion framework to simulate PKCα translocation via PIP2 hydrolysis in an endothelial cell. A three-dimensional cell model, divided into membrane and cytoplasm domains, was reconstructed from confocal microscopy images. The associated metabolic reactions were divided into their corresponding domain; PIP2 hydrolysis at the membrane domain resulted in DAG diffusion at the membrane domain and IP3 release into the cytoplasm domain. In the cytoplasm domain, Ca2+ was released from the endoplasmic reticulum, and IP3, Ca2+, and PKCα diffused through the cytoplasm. PKCα bound Ca2+ at, and diffused through, the cytoplasm, and was finally activated by binding with DAG at the membrane. Using our model, we analyzed IP3 and DAG dynamics, Ca2+ waves, and PKCα translocation in response to a microscopic stimulus. We found a qualitative agreement between our simulation results and our experimental results obtained by live-cell imaging. Interestingly, our results suggest that PKCα translocation is dominated by DAG dynamics. This three-dimensional reaction–diffusion mathematical framework could be used to investigate the link between PKCα activation in a cell and cell function.

Stochastic evolutionary differential games toward a systems theory of behavioral social dynamics

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (06) ◽  
pp. 1051-1093 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Ajmone Marsan ◽  
N. Bellomo ◽  
L. Gibelli
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social System ◽  
General Framework ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Research Perspectives

This paper proposes a systems approach to social sciences based on a mathematical framework derived from a generalization of the mathematical kinetic theory and of theoretical tools of game theory. Social systems are modeled as a living evolutionary ensemble composed of many individuals, who express specific strategies, cooperate, compete and might aggregate into groups which pursue a common interest. A critical analysis on the complexity features of social system is developed and a differential structure is derived to provide a general framework toward modeling. Then, a case study shows how the systems approach is applied. Moreover, it is shown how the theory leads to the interpretation and use of the so-called big data. Finally some research perspectives are brought to the attention of readers.

A mathematical framework for determining the stability of steady states of reaction–diffusion equations with periodic source terms

2019 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-678
Author(s):  
Lennon Ó Náraigh ◽  
Khang Ee Pang
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Spatial Dimension ◽  
Steady States ◽  
Reaction Diffusion Equations ◽  
Diffusion Equations ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Source Terms ◽  
The Stability

Abstract We develop a mathematical framework for determining the stability of steady states of generic nonlinear reaction–diffusion equations with periodic source terms in one spatial dimension. We formulate an a priori condition for the stability of such steady states, which relies only on the properties of the steady state itself. The mathematical framework is based on Bloch’s theorem and Poincaré’s inequality for mean-zero periodic functions. Our framework can be used for stability analysis to determine the regions in an appropriate parameter space for which steady-state solutions are stable.

scholarly journals The Radicalization of Young Protesters in Hong Kong: Under the Context of Globalization and Power Relations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Zheng Yingqin
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Hong Kong Sar ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
The U.S

This paper takes the social unrest in 2019 as a case study and identifies three factors that contributed to the radicalization of social protests in Hong Kong: globalization, digitalization and the U.S. meddling in Hong Kong affairs. First, with the deepening of globalization, the worsening of social-economic conditions had bred populism among the youth. Second, digital technologies and social media platforms also made it easy for young people in Hong Kong to protest in a more covert and radical way. Third, the U.S. support for the Hong Kong opposition leaders added fuel to the radicalization of youth protesters. All these factors finally led to radicalized social protests in Hong Kong. Nevertheless, following the implementation of the National Security Law in Hong Kong SAR, violent activities were largely stopped and social order was gradually restored.

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