scholarly journals A Forecasting Model for Economic Growth and CO2 Emission Based on Industry 4.0 Political Policy under the Government Power: Adapting a Second-Order Autoregressive-SEM

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sutthichaimethee ◽  
Chatchorfa ◽  
Suyaprom
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Political Policy ◽  
The Government

This research aims to forecast future economic and environmental growth for the next 16 years (2020–2035) according to the government’s strategic framework by applying the second order autoregressive-structural equation model (second order autoregressive-SEM). The model is validated by various measures, fits with the best model standards, meets all criteria of the goodness of fit, and is absent from any issues of heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, autocorrelation, and non-normality. The proposed model is very distinct from other alternatives in that it produces the optimal outcome. Its mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.02% while the root mean square error (RMSE) is 1.51%. A comparison of the above results is carried out to compare the same values from other models, namely the regression linear model (ML model), back propagation neural network (BP model), artificial neural natural model (ANN model), gray model, and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model). The second order autoregressive-SEM is a model that is appropriate for long-term forecasting (2020–2035), and accounts for the specifics of the Thai government strategy set under the Industry 4.0 policy framework. The results of the long-term analysis indicate that the current political policy will result in continuous economic growth, where the gross national product (GNP) growth rate will climb up to 6.45% per annum by 2035, while the environment is being negatively affected. The study predicts that CO2 emissions will rise up to 97.52 Mt CO2 Eq. (2035). The forecasting model also reflects that the economy factor has an adjustment ability to equilibrium stronger than that of the environment factor; further, it shows that the relationship between the factors is causal. In addition, the political policy , economy , and environment factors are found to have both direct and indirect effects. As to the results, this study illustrates that the Industry 4.0 policy is still inefficient, as the carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be higher than the threshold for environment hazards and disasters which set to the limit of 80 Mt CO2 Eq. by 2035. The effect of such policy will put the environment at risk, and the government must take immediate action to respond to this urgency. Thus, the second order autoregressive-SEM model remains a significant model embedded with the adjustment ability to equilibrium and the applicability for various contexts in different sectors. This introduced model is a vital tool for assisting the national government to create policy that is effective and sustainable, and lead to positive development of the nation. This second order autoregressive-SEM model can be used as a resource for the management of both public policy and private enterprise.

scholarly journals A time series analysis of determinants of FDI in Afghanistan: Which one matters the most, security or economic growth?

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Abdul Fareed Delawari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Market Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Afghanistan has been practicing market economic system since 2002. Since then, the government has been initiating different policies and announced various incentives to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) to the country. However, the outcome has not been satisfactory due to several political and economic factors. This paper explores the relationship between security, economic growth and FDI in Afghanistan, using ARDL model. The paper covers a period from 2002 to 2016. The empirical results of this study show that there is a negative long-term relationship between security and FDI. Hence,  the author concludes that, to attract FDI to the country, insuring security should be the top priority of the government of Afghanistan.

Research on the Relationship between Economic Growth, Environmental Governance Investment and Carbon Emission--Based on the Time Series Data from 2000 to 2019

2020 ◽  
pp. 713-727
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Wang, Xin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The study on the relationship between investment in environmental governance, carbon emission and economic growth is helpful for the relevant government departments to coordinate the influence among them when formulating the policies of reducing emission and conserving energy, so as to take the comparative advantages of various factors and promote the benign interaction between economic development and environmental governance. In this paper, the data of Per capita GDP, per capita investment in environmental governance and per capita CARBON dioxide emissions in China from 2000 to 2019 are selected as the research basis, and variables are studied by means of Granger causality and impulse response function. As shown in the results, there is a single Granger relationship between investment in environmental governance and carbon emissions, that is, the increase of investment in environmental governance leads to the reduction of carbon emissions. The influence of economic growth on environmental governance investment is small, but in the long term, it can restrain the growth of carbon emissions. Investment in environmental governance can promote economic growth and stimulate a reduction in the emissions in the short term; Economic growth was hindered by the emissions in the long term and fail to stimulate increased investment in environmental governance. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy Suggestions for optimizing the structure of environmental governance investment, improving the carbon emission monitoring and response mechanism, and strengthening the technological level of energy conservation and emission reduction.

Portuguese coalition parties may clash over austerity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Structural Funds ◽  
The Government

Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.

scholarly journals Populasi, One Child Policy dan Reformasi Cina

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-101
Author(s):  
YUSNARIDA EKA NIZMI NIZMI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Aging Population ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Almost All

Abstract One child policy has been implemented  in 1979 and the effects both  negative and positive clearly to women. One child policy is a simple China’s economic growth grand strategy that was design to reduce population growth, infrastructure problems,  labour and resources. This policy obviously effective in controlling almost all family just to have one child. The problem is that one child policy should be noted only just for short term, implemented for giving state to get its economic goals and to socialize the values of small family and not for long term solution.  Various critics defense this policy because of its unrespect and harmful for women and also breaking the human rights. This research analyze one child policy and its implications to decline labour ratio which threat economic stability because of aging population. China government  needs to be focus on the meaning of growth in wholistic and more understand that economic growth is also include better echievements in social politics and economic policy dimension. These dimensions will not be reached if the government keep going its attention only on liberalization and modal accumulation.   Keywords: Population Policy, One Child Policy, Family Planning, Economic Growth.   Sejak One Child Policy diimplementasikan pada tahun 1979, terlihat dengan jelas pengaruh positif dan negatifnya terhadap kaum perempuan. Kebijakan satu anak adalah salah satu bagian sederhana dari grand strategi pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina, yang dirancang untuk membatasi pertumbuhan populasi  dan mengurangi tekanan infrastruktur, ketenagakerjaan dan sumberdaya.  Kebijakan ini efektif dalam membatasi  hampir semua keluarga hanya memiliki satu anak. Masalahnya adalah bahwa kebijakan ini harus dipandang sebagai sebuah program jangka pendek, diimplementasikan untuk memberi negara kesempatan mencapai tujuan-tujuan ekonominya dan membantu mensosialisasikan nilai dari keluarga kecil, dan bukan sebagai solusi jangka panjang untuk tekanan ekonomi. Kritik terhadap kebijakan ini sudah banyak bermunculan, kebijakan ini membahayakan kaum perempuan dan implikasinya melanggar hak asasi manusi. Tulisan ini menganalisa posisi kebijakan satu anak dan implementasinya yang banyak mendapatkan pertentanga dan penurunan rasio tenaga kerja yang pensiun yang dapat mengancam stabilititas ekonomi Cina karena persoalan “aging population”. Pemerintah Cina perlu untuk memfokuskan makna pertumbuhan secara holistik dan lebih memahami bahwa pertumbuhan juga mencakup pencapaian yang lebih baik dalam dimensi sosial, politik, dan kebijakan ekonomi.  Dimensi-dimensi ini tidak akan dapat dicapai jika pemerintah terus melanjutkan perhatiannya hanya pada liberalisasi dan akumulasi modal.   Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Populasi, Kebijakan satu anak, Perencanaan Keluarga, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi  

scholarly journals Strengthening Indonesia's Economic Growth with Islamic and non-Islamic Macroeconomic Variable

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-128
Author(s):  
Eba Ismi Alifah ◽  
Anton Bawono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Islamic Bank ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Abstract: This research was conducted to determine the effect of taxes, Sukuk, grants, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and the network of Islamic bank offices on Indonesia's economic growth. Research data for each variable is monthly from 2009-2018. Data analysis variables use Error Correction Model (ECM) Test and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Test with Eviews ver.10. The results showed that in the short and long term, variables taxes, Sukuk, inflation, foreign debt, total financing, and office networks of Islamic banks) affected the Indonesian economic growth. At the same time, grants have no significant effect on economic growth. For variable predictions in the next year (2019), only economic growth, grants, inflation, foreign debt, and network of Islamic bank offices can be predicted. Meanwhile, taxes, Sukuk, and total financing cannot be identified in 2019 because the variables are not significant in the ARCH analysis, so it cannot be diagnosed about future values. This result implies that the government and the community must continue to work together to manage state revenues used to fund productive projects to stimulate economic growth.Abstrak: Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pajak, sukuk negara, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Data penelitian setiap variabel berupa bulanan dari tahun 2009-2018. Uji variabel penelitian menggunakan Uji Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Uji ARCH menggunakan Eviews ver.10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, variabel pajak, sukuk negara, inflasi, utang luar negeri, jumlah pembiayaan dan jaringan kantor bank syariah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel hibah tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk prediksi variabel di tahun berikutnya (tahun 2019), hanya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, hibah, inflasi, utang luar negeri dan jumlah jaringan kantor bank syariah yang dapat diprediksi, sedangkan pajak, sukuk negara, dan jumlah pembiayaan tidak dapat diketahui nilai perkembangannya di tahun 2019 karena variabel tersebut tidak signifikan pada analisis ARCH. Sehingga tidak dapat di diagnosa dalam bentuk ARCH untuk dilakukan forecast data agar diketahui tentang nilai di masa yang akan datang. Implikasi dari temuan ini adalah diperlukan upaya yang berkesinambungan dari pemerintah dan masyarakat dalam mengelola penerimaan negara yang dimanfaatkan untuk mendanai proyek yang produktif sehingga dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi. 

scholarly journals PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-31
Author(s):  
Dara Resmi Asbiantari ◽  
Manuntun Parulian Hutagaol ◽  
Alla Asmara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Capital Goods ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
The Government

Economic growth is a matter of the economy in the long term and is influenced by various factors. This study aimed to analyze the effect of the agricultural export, industrial export, mining export, import of capital goods, government spending and gross fixed capital formation to economic growth of Indonesia. The analytical method used was Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Cochrane-Orcutt method. This study uses secondary data quarterly time series from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1 which is obtained from the Ministry of Trade, the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia and the Capital Investment Coordinating Board. The results showed that on the first model to see the effect of the aggregate exports on economic growth show that imports of capital goods have a significant influence in the short term to economic growth. While in the long term, the variables that have a significant impact on economic growth is GFCF. While the second model to see the role of exports by sector to economic growth getting results that exports in the industrial sector has a significant influence both in the short-term and long-term to economic growth. It concluded that outward looking policies has an effective impact to be applied in Indonesia if the Government to develop exports in the industrial sector.

Poland-EU constitutional crisis will not end soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Constitutional Tribunal ◽  
The Government ◽  
Polish Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject European Commission concerns about the rule of law in Poland. Significance The Commission has sent a formal Opinion to the Polish government, activating the first stage in the EU's 'Rule of Law Framework'. It expresses concerns about respect for the rule of law in Poland (a fundamental founding value of the EU), and in particular about the Polish government's handling of the crisis over the Constitutional Tribunal (TK, for Trybunał Konstytucyjny) Impacts Poland's EU position is likely to suffer as a result of the dispute, making it more difficult for it to achieve other political goals. Polish politics will remain unsettled and polarised, with the opposition using the Commission's Opinion to challenge the government. Legal uncertainty may translate into lower investment by individuals and enterprises dampening economic growth in the medium-to-long term.

scholarly journals Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Saudi Arabia: A Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 222
Author(s):  
Haga Elimam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Maximum Flow ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Host Government ◽  
The Government

Foreign direct investment is identified as the major tool for the movement of international capital. Thus, the study has employed a review research to examine the determinants of foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia. The results are significant as they have contributed towards determinants of foreign direct investment by comparing with previous studies. The results showed that trade openness, infrastructure availability, and market size play significant role in attracting foreign direct investment within a country. The inflow of foreign direct investment has a potential to benefit the investing entity as well as the host government. It also renders economic growth and socioeconomic transformation of the country. The flow of foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia is affected by several factors including growth rate, GDP, exports and imports. It is the duty of the government to ensure the attractiveness of their country to maintain maximum flow of foreign direct investment, as it promotes sustained long-term economic growth by increased investment in the human capital.

How National Budget can Provide Economic Growth

2015 ◽  
pp. 142-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Aganbegyan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
The Government

The article considers the role of national budget in Russian socio-economic development. The author analyzes the Russian budget of the last decade and comes to the conclusion that it is not efficient because there is no long term planning, the allocation of responsibilities between the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance is not optimal, and because the government is trying to stimulate economic growth without resorting to deficit budget.

Challenges of Russian economic development and government economic policy

2016 ◽  
pp. 36-44
Author(s):  
A. Ulyukaev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Economic Development ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
State Support ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government

The article analyzes the problems faced by the Russian economy, and response by the government economic policy. The author considers measures to address four key tasks that will maximize long-term economic growth: the reduction of direct and transaction costs, creation of conditions for the transformation of savings into investments, fostering investment activity through the mechanisms of state support, as well as the removal of demand constraints.

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