Carbon Emissions and Renewables’ Share in the Future Iberian Power System
The main objective of this study is to assess if the targets set by the European Commission (EC) relating to the share of renewables and CO2 emissions by 2030 will be accomplished by the Iberian power system. In this regard, several projections for each generation technology’s installed capacity in the future power system are identified. These forecasts were issued by governmental and private Iberian organizations and by the European Association of Transmission System Operators (ENTSOE), the latter with three scenarios regarding the speed of the energy transition. The outputs of the study are extended to the 2040 horizon and include the energy generated by each technology, the CO2 emissions, the costs involved in the decarbonization, and the storage capacity needed to compensate for the renewables’ variability. The conclusion is that the Iberia peninsular is on the right path to achieve a fully decarbonized power system by 2040, outperforming by far the EC’s targets in 2030 if the governmental projections are followed. A significant capacity of storage options is envisaged to compensate for the variability of generation from renewables and to replace the power regulation services provided by the fossil fuel plants that will be shut down.