scholarly journals Waterborne Disease Outbreak Detection: A Simulation-Based Study

Author(s):  
Damien Mouly ◽  
Sarah Goria ◽  
Michael Mounié ◽  
Pascal Beaudeau ◽  
Catherine Galey ◽  
...  

Waterborne disease outbreaks (WBDOs) remain a public health issue in developed countries, but to date the surveillance of WBDOs in France, mainly based on the voluntary reporting of clusters of acute gastrointestinal infections (AGIs) by general practitioners to health authorities, is characterized by low sensitivity. In this context, a detection algorithm using health insurance data and based on a space–time method was developed to improve WBDO detection. The objective of the present simulation-based study was to evaluate the performance of this algorithm for WBDO detection using health insurance data. The daily baseline counts of acute gastrointestinal infections were simulated. Two thousand simulated WBDO signals were then superimposed on the baseline data. Sensitivity (Se) and positive predictive value (PPV) were both used to evaluate the detection algorithm. Multivariate regression was also performed to identify the factors associated with WBDO detection. Almost three-quarters of the simulated WBDOs were detected (Se = 73.0%). More than 9 out of 10 detected signals corresponded to a WBDO (PPV = 90.5%). The probability of detecting a WBDO increased with the outbreak size. These results underline the value of using the detection algorithm for the implementation of a national surveillance system for WBDOs in France.

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (3) ◽  
pp. 591-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. MOULY ◽  
D. VAN CAUTEREN ◽  
N. VINCENT ◽  
E. VAISSIERE ◽  
P. BEAUDEAU ◽  
...  

SUMMARYWaterborne disease outbreaks (WBDO) of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) are a public health concern in France. Their occurrence is probably underestimated due to the lack of a specific surveillance system. The French health insurance database provides an interesting opportunity to improve the detection of these events. A specific algorithm to identify AGI cases from drug payment reimbursement data in the health insurance database has been previously developed. The purpose of our comparative study was to retrospectively assess the ability of the health insurance data to describe WBDO. Data from the health insurance database was compared with the data from cohort studies conducted in two WBDO in 2010 and 2012. The temporal distribution of cases, the day of the peak and the duration of the epidemic, as measured using the health insurance data, were similar to the data from one of the two cohort studies. However, health insurance data accounted for 54 cases compared to the estimated 252 cases accounted for in the cohort study. The accuracy of using health insurance data to describe WBDO depends on the medical consultation rate in the impacted population. As this is never the case, data analysis underestimates the total number of AGI cases. However this data source can be considered for the development of a detection system of a WBDO in France, given its ability to describe an epidemic signal.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 268-277
Author(s):  
YoonDeok Han ◽  
◽  
Sunghyeon Jung ◽  
Kwang-tae Ha ◽  
Seung-Mi Kwon ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
César L. C. Mattos ◽  
Amauri H. Souza Júnior ◽  
Ajalmar R. Rocha Neto ◽  
Guilherme A. Barreto ◽  
Ronaldo F. Ramos ◽  
...  

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