scholarly journals Preceding Fall Drought Conditions and Overwinter Precipitation Effects on Spring Wildland Fire Activity in Canada

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Chelene Hanes ◽  
Mike Wotton ◽  
Douglas G. Woolford ◽  
David L. Martell ◽  
Mike Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Carry Over ◽  
The Impact

Spring fire activity has increased in parts of Canada, particularly in the west, prompting fire managers to seek indicators of potential activity before the fire season starts. The overwintering adjustment of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System’s Drought Code (DC) is a method to adjust and carry-over the previous season’s drought conditions into the spring and potentially point to what lies ahead. The occurrence of spring fires is most strongly influenced by moisture in fine fuels. We used a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to examine the impact of the previous end of season Drought Code (DCf) and overwinter precipitation (Pow) while accounting for the day-to-day variation in fine fuel moisture that drives ignition potential. Impacts of DCf and Pow on area burned and fire suppression effectiveness were also explored using linear and logistic regression frameworks. Eight fire management regions across the boreal forests were analyzed using data from 1979 to 2018. For the majority of regions, drier fall conditions resulted in more human-caused spring fires, but not in greater area burned or reduced suppression effectiveness. The influence of Pow was much more variable pointing to the conclusion that Pow alone is not a good indicator of spring drought conditions.

Modification of the Fosberg fire weather index to include drought

2002 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott L. Goodrick
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Potential Influence ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Availability Factor ◽  
Simple Tool ◽  
The Impact

The Fosberg fire weather index is a simple tool for evaluating the potential influence of weather on a wildland fire based on temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. A modification to this index that includes the impact of precipitation is proposed. The Keetch-Byram drought index is used to formulate a ‘fuel availability’ factor that modifies the response of the fire weather index. Comparisons between the original and modified indices are made using historical fire data from the Florida Division of Forestry. The addition of the fuel availability factor helps increase the utility of the fire weather index as it offers an improved relationship between the index and area burned.

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations in wildland fire suppression decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 282
Author(s):  
Vincent Herr ◽  
Adam K. Kochanski ◽  
Van V. Miller ◽  
Rich McCrea ◽  
Dan O'Brien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Break Line ◽  
Socioeconomic Impact ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Earth Observations ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Behaviour Simulation

A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations is proposed and deployed. The core of the method is the analysis of outcomes of hypothetical fire suppression scenarios generated using a coupled atmosphere–fire behaviour model, based on decisions made by an experienced wildfire incident management team with and without the benefits of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite observations and the WRF-SFIRE wildfire behaviour simulation system. The scenarios were based on New Mexico’s 2011 Las Conchas fire. For each scenario, fire break line location decisions served as inputs to the model, generating fire progression outcomes. Fire model output was integrated with a property database containing thousands of coordinates and property values and other asset values to estimate the total losses associated with each scenario. An attempt to estimate the socioeconomic impact of satellite and modelling data used during the decision-making process was made. We analysed the impact of Earth observations and include considerations for estimating other socioeconomic impacts.

Seasonal changes in wildland firefighter fitness and body composition

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 294
Author(s):  
Steven E. Gaskill ◽  
Charles L. Dumke ◽  
Charles G. Palmer ◽  
Brent C. Ruby ◽  
Joseph W. Domitrovich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Body Composition ◽  
Aerobic Fitness ◽  
Ventilatory Threshold ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Metabolic Cost ◽  
Load Carriage ◽  
Fat Free Mass ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Exercise Treadmill

Hiking with a pack is the highest-intensity task that wildland firefighters (WLFFs) perform during sustained activities related to wildland fire suppression. Firefighters perform this and other tasks together as a crew; this provides a unique model to evaluate select physical and physiological changes in members of working crews over a fire season during extended operations. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in peak aerobic fitness (VO2peak), sustainable aerobic fitness at the ventilatory threshold (VO2vt) and body composition over a 5-month wildland fire season. WLFFs from four crews (55 males, 10 females) participated in a maximal graded exercise treadmill test and body composition evaluation pre- and post season. VO2peak values and variance did not change across the fire season (pre=3.96±0.65, post=3.96±0.69Lmin−1, not significant). VO2vt average decreased slightly while variance decreased greatly within each crew (pre=37.5±7.0, post=35.4±2.3mLkg−1 min−1, P<0.05). There was an improvement in VO2vt in initially less-fit WLFFs and a VO2vt decrease in initially more-fit WLFFs. WLFFs lost fat mass (−1.56±−1.06kg, P<0.01) and fat-free mass (−0.38±−1.24kg, P<0.05). Post-season VO2vt values were the same as the higher range of the documented metabolic cost of uphill load carriage and reveal a unique group adaptation to extended physical demands.

Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Meg A. Krawchuk ◽  
William J. de Groot ◽  
B. Mike Wotton ◽  
Lynn M. Gowman
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Global Studies ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Linear Interactions

Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.

Effective fire suppression in boreal forests

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 772-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
S G Cumming
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Operational Effectiveness ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Northeastern Alberta

Fire suppression is (functionally) effective insofar as it reduces area burned. In North American boreal forests, fire regimes and historical records are such that this effect cannot be detected or estimated directly. I present an indirect approach, proceeding from the practice of initial attack (IA), which is intended to limit the proportion of "large" fires. I analysed IA's (operational) effectiveness by a controlled retrospective study of fire-history data for an approximately 86 000 km2 region of boreal forest in northeastern Alberta, Canada, from 1968 to 1998 (31 years). Over this interval, various improvements to IA practice, including a 1983 change in management strategy, created a natural experiment. I tested the results with multiple logistic regression models of the annual probabilities of a fire becoming larger than 3 and 200 ha. Annual fire counts (Nt) were a surrogate for fire weather and peak daily counts within years (arrival load). Measured by odds ratios, mean IA effectiveness against 3- and 200-ha fires increased in 1983 by factors of 2.02 (95% CI = 1.70–2.40) and 2.41 (95% CI = 1.69–3.45), respectively. Prior to 1983, the functional response to Nt was consistent with saturation of IA capacity at high arrival loads. From 1983–1998, effectiveness was independent of Nt. I introduce the proportional reduction in area burned (impact) as a measure of functional effectiveness and state conditions under which it can be estimated from the regression models. Over 1983–1998, if suppressed and actual fires were comparable, relative IA impact ([Formula: see text]) was 0.58 (95% CI = 0.34–0.74) and area burned was reduced by 457 500 ha. If fires larger than 1 × 105, 1 × 104, or 1 × 103 ha are assumed to be unpreventable, [Formula: see text] declines to 0.46, 025, or 0.08, respectively, but there is no evidence this is the case.

Linking tree rings, summer aridity, and regional fire data: an example from the boreal forests of the Komi Republic, East European Russia

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 2327-2339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Drobyshev ◽  
Mats Niklasson
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Siberian Larch ◽  
Komi Republic ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Fire Activity

To evaluate the potential use of tree-ring data as a proxy for fire activity at the scale of a large boreal region, we analyzed a set of regional tree-ring chronologies of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica L.), a spatially implicit annual fire record, and monthly climate data for the Komi Republic for the period 1950–1990. In most years, annually burned area was below 0.001% of the republic's forested area and reached up to 0.7% during fire-prone years. Principal components (PC) of summer aridity resolved 64.2% of the annual variation in the number of fires, 12.2% in the average fire size, and 59.2% in the annually burned area. In turn, tree-ring PCs explained 65.2% of variation in fire-related weather PCs. Dendrochronological reconstruction of the annual number of fires and of the log-transformed annually burned area predicted 27.0% and 40.1% of the high-frequency variance of these variables, respectively. Coefficient of efficiency, a measure of reconstruction usefulness, reached 0.081 (number of fires) and 0.315 (annual area burned), supporting the obtained index as a realistic proxy for regional fire activity. Decadal variation in coefficient of efficiency values suggested improved monitoring accuracy since 1960 and more effective fire suppression during the last studied decade (1980–1990).

scholarly journals Where there's smoke, there's fuel: predicting Great Basin rangeland wildfire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph T Smith ◽  
Brady W Allred ◽  
Chad S Boyd ◽  
Kirk W Davies ◽  
Matthew O. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Basin ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Ground Cover ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Fine Fuels

Wildfires are a growing management concern in western US rangelands, where invasive annual grasses have altered fire regimes and contributed to an increased incidence of catastrophic large wildfires. Fire activity in arid, non-forested regions is thought to be largely controlled by interannual variation in fuel amount, which in turn is controlled by antecedent weather. Thus, long-range forecasting of fire activity in rangelands should be feasible given annual estimates of fuel quantity. Using a 32 yr time series of spatial data, we employ machine learning algorithms to predict the relative probability of large (>400 ha) wildfire in the Great Basin based on fine-scale annual and 16-day estimates of cover and production of vegetation functional groups, weather, and multitemporal scale drought indices. We evaluate the predictive utility of these models with a leave-one-year-out cross-validation, building spatial forecasts of fire probability for each year that we compare against actual maps of large wildfires. Herbaceous vegetation aboveground biomass production, bare ground cover, and long-term drought indices were the most important predictors of fire probability. Across 32 fire seasons, >80% of the area burned in large wildfires coincided with predicted fire probabilities ≥0.5. At the scale of the Great Basin, several metrics of fire season severity were moderately to strongly correlated with average fire probability, including total area burned in large wildfires, number of large wildfires, and average and maximum fire size. Our findings show that recent years of exceptional fire activity in the Great Basin were predictable based on antecedent weather and biomass of fine fuels, and reveal a significant increasing trend in fire probability over the last three decades driven by widespread changes in fine fuel characteristics.

scholarly journals Estimating Suppression Expenditures for Individual Large Wildland Fires

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 188-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krista M. Gebert ◽  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Jonathan Yoder
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Intensity Level ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Wildland Fires ◽  
Area Burned

Abstract The extreme cost of fighting wildland fires has brought fire suppression expenditures to the forefront of budgetary and policy debate in the United States. Inasmuch as large fires are responsible for the bulk of fire suppression expenditures, understanding fire characteristics that influence expenditures is important for both strategic fire planning and onsite fire management decisions. These characteristics then can be used to produce estimates of suppression expenditures for large wildland fires for use in wildland fire decision support or after-fire reviews. The primary objective of this research was to develop regression models that could be used to estimate expenditures on large wildland fires based on area burned, variables representing the fire environment, values at risk, resource availability, detection time, and National Forest System region. Variables having the largest influence on cost included fire intensity level, area burned, and total housing value within 20 mi of ignition. These equations were then used to predict suppression expenditures on a set of fiscal year 2005 Forest Service fires for the purpose of detecting “extreme” cost fires—those fires falling more than 1 or 2 SDs above or below their expected value.

scholarly journals Limited effect of COVID-19 on the 2020 fire season in Mediterranean Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Víctor Resco de Dios
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Mediterranean Europe ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Extreme Fire

In a recent study, Rodrigues et al. (2020) analyze the impact of COVID-19 on fire activity. During this year’s pandemic we have experienced extreme fire activity in many areas worldwide including Siberia (McCarty et al., 2020), western US (Pickrell and Pennisi, 2020), and different Latin American countries including Argentina, Bolivia or Paraguay. Interestingly, the authors argue that COVID-19 has led to a reduction in fire activity in EUMED countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece) because of the associated decrease in human activity.

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