Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Meg A. Krawchuk ◽  
William J. de Groot ◽  
B. Mike Wotton ◽  
Lynn M. Gowman
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Global Studies ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Linear Interactions

Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening for temperate and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine owing to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people.

scholarly journals FIRE SEVERITY ASSESSMENT USING NDVI DERIVED FROM LANDSAT TM/ETM IMAGES AND TERRAIN DATA

2017 ◽  
pp. 29-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Molla ◽  
Emiliya Velizarova ◽  
Mariana Zaharinova
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
One Year ◽  
In Fire

The forest fires influence on the plants and soil depends on the fire severity and time of exposure. Fire severity integrates physical, chemical and biological changes occurring in ecosystems on the area as a consequence of fire influence. The purpose of the current investigation was to examine the role of the forest fire severity on the vegetation cover of the area of Svilengrad Municipality, using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) before fire and after fire, derived from LANDSAT 8 TM/ETM images. The comparison of the data from NDVI and that observed on the terrain data was also targeted. The results show that NDVI are changed significantly in fire affected area depending on vegetation cover and type of fire. This index also is very sensitive to changes during time after fire occurrence. One year after fire occurrence the NDVI values increased to +0.305 (0.048) for whole studied area. Through dNDVI could be distinguish the recovery rates of the fire affected areas with different tree species.

Effects of drought on wildfires in forest landscapes of the Western Ghats, India

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narendran Kodandapani ◽  
Sean A. Parks
Keyword(s):  
Western Ghats ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Western Ghats

Wildland fire is an understudied yet highly important disturbance agent on the Indian subcontinent. In particular, there is uncertainty regarding the degree to which annual climate variation influences inter-annual variability in fire activity. In this study, we evaluate wildland fire at two complementary spatial scales in the southern portion of the Western Ghats mountain range (hereafter ‘Western Ghats’) in India. At the larger regional scale, we evaluate temporal and spatial variability in fire activity from 2001 to 2015. At the smaller scale, we evaluate the relationship between annual area burned and climate variation within two landscapes nested within the Western Ghats (from c. 1996 to 2015). At the regional scale, we found that most fire activity was restricted to January–March, although substantial inter-annual variation was evident. For example, in 2004, 2009 and 2012, fire activity was approximately five times greater compared with the 3 years with the lowest fire activity. The landscape-scale analysis also revealed weak to strong correlations between annual area burned and climate variation in both landscapes. Although not the only factor influencing area burned, episodes of drought could be exerting an increasingly significant effect on wildfire activity in the Western Ghats.

scholarly journals A 229-year dendroclimatic-inferred record of forest fire activity for the Boreal Shield of Canada

2006 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin P. Girardin ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Jacques C. Tardif ◽  
Sylvie Gauthier ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Boreal Shield

Six independent tree-ring reconstructions of summer drought were calibrated against instrumental fire data to develop a 229-year dendroclimatic-inferred record of fire activity (annual area burned and fire occurrence) on the Boreal Shield, Canada. As a means of validating the statistical reconstructions of the fire activity, a comparison was made with a stand age distribution derived from a regional time-since-last-fire map for an area located at the transition between the mixedwood and coniferous boreal forests of south-western Quebec. Calibration statistics indicated that 31% of the area burned variance and 45% of the fire occurrence variance could be accounted for by the six drought reconstructions. The verification statistics indicated a tendency for the statistical reconstructions of the fire activity to reproduce with confidence both high and relatively low frequency variations in fire. Episodes of succeeding years with important fire activity were estimated for 1789–1796, 1820–1823, 1837–1841, 1862–1866, 1906–1912, 1919–1922, 1933–1938, and 1974–1977. Also estimated were periods of reduced forest fire activity, particularly in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years, from c. 1850 to 1900 and again during the second half of the 20th century. Correlation analysis between the statistical reconstruction of the area burned and the stand age distribution suggested that both proxies shared similar information on the fire activity. Correlation maps, however, indicated that variability in the statistical reconstructions was not necessarily representative of fire activity in all regions of the Boreal Shield.

scholarly journals Preceding Fall Drought Conditions and Overwinter Precipitation Effects on Spring Wildland Fire Activity in Canada

Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Chelene Hanes ◽  
Mike Wotton ◽  
Douglas G. Woolford ◽  
David L. Martell ◽  
Mike Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Carry Over ◽  
The Impact

Spring fire activity has increased in parts of Canada, particularly in the west, prompting fire managers to seek indicators of potential activity before the fire season starts. The overwintering adjustment of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System’s Drought Code (DC) is a method to adjust and carry-over the previous season’s drought conditions into the spring and potentially point to what lies ahead. The occurrence of spring fires is most strongly influenced by moisture in fine fuels. We used a zero-inflated Poisson regression model to examine the impact of the previous end of season Drought Code (DCf) and overwinter precipitation (Pow) while accounting for the day-to-day variation in fine fuel moisture that drives ignition potential. Impacts of DCf and Pow on area burned and fire suppression effectiveness were also explored using linear and logistic regression frameworks. Eight fire management regions across the boreal forests were analyzed using data from 1979 to 2018. For the majority of regions, drier fall conditions resulted in more human-caused spring fires, but not in greater area burned or reduced suppression effectiveness. The influence of Pow was much more variable pointing to the conclusion that Pow alone is not a good indicator of spring drought conditions.

Pathways for climate change effects on fire: Models, data, and uncertainties

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy E. Hessl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Frequency Changes ◽  
In Fire

Fire is a global process affecting both the biosphere and the atmosphere. As a result, measuring rates of change in wildland fire and understanding the mechanisms responsible for such changes are important research goals. A large body of modeling studies projects increases in wildfire activity in future decades, but few empirical studies have documented change in modern fire regimes. Identifying generalizable pathways through which climate change may alter fire regimes is a critical next step for understanding, measuring, and modeling fire under a changing climate. In this progress report, I review recent model-, empirical-, and fire history-based studies of fire and climate change and propose three pathways along which fire regimes might respond to climate change: changes in fuel condition, fuel volume, and ignitions. Model- and empirical-based studies have largely focused on changes in fuel condition with some models projecting up to 50% increases in area burned under a 2 x CO2 climate. Fire history data derived from tree-rings, sediment charcoal, and soil charcoal have helped identify past trajectories of change in fire regimes and can point to possible future conditions. However, most fire history research has focused on changes in area burned and fire frequency. Changes in fire severity may be equally important for the earth system and require further attention. Critical research needs include next generation dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) that consider changes in vegetation alongside changes in human activities and long fire history records from a variety of vegetation types suitable for validating these DGVMs.

scholarly journals Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine A. Nikiel ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Virtual Water ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Nile Water ◽  
The Gift ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 1960S

AbstractFor millennia the Nile supplied Egypt with more water than needed. As the population grew and the economy expanded, demand on water increased accordingly. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis to reconstruct how total demand on water outstripped supply of the Nile water in the late 1970s, starting from a surplus of about 20 km3 per year in the 1960s leading to a deficit of about 40 km3 per year by the late 2010s. The gap is satisfied by import of virtual water. The role of economic growth in driving per capita demand on water is quantified based on detailed analysis of water use by agriculture and other sectors. We develop and test an empirical model of water demand in Egypt that relates demand on water to growth rates in the economy and population. Looking forward, we project that within this decade of the 2020 s, under nominal scenarios of population and economic growth, Egypt is likely to import more virtual water than the water supplied by the Nile, bringing into question the historical characterization of Egypt as “the gift of the Nile”.

Women’s entrepreneurship and internationalization: patterns and trends

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (9/10) ◽  
pp. 780-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Ratten ◽  
Kayhan Tajeddini
Keyword(s):  
Women Entrepreneurs ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Female Gender ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Women’S Entrepreneurship ◽  
Women's Entrepreneurship ◽  
New Research

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on women’s entrepreneurship and internationalization in order to build an understanding about future trends. There is increasing interest in the role of women in entrepreneurship yet little research has been conducted about the link to internationalization patterns. Design/methodology/approach The literature is reviewed based on a systematic analysis of the words women, female, gender and internationalization. Findings Three main schools of thought around women’s entrepreneurship and internationalization (philosophy, management and motivations) are then discussed. The analysis of literature and classification into main theories enables the building of new research around women’s entrepreneurship and internationalization. Originality/value There is a pipeline of women intending to become entrepreneurs so this paper helps to understand how women entrepreneurs influence internationalization patterns and how to help support women in their business endeavors.

FEATURES AND PRINCIPLES OF INVESTING IN MODERN CONDITIONS. INTERNATIONAL AND RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
I. A. GUSAROVA ◽  
◽  
K. D. KOVALEVA ◽  
A. A. SAGDEEVA ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
French Experience ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

The article considers the role of foreign direct investment in various industry projects and their implementation. The statistics of the number of investment projects in Europe and Russia are analyzed. The best French experience of attracting foreign direct investment is considered. The main future trends of economic development that will affect the investment attractiveness of a country, taking into account the epidemiological situation in the world, are presented. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes in the implementation of investment projects in European countries was studied. The article describes the industries that have real economic potential for further development, as well as those that are most affected by the current global economic and epidemiological situation.

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