scholarly journals 21st Century Planning Techniques for Creating Fire-Resilient Forests in the American West

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1084
Author(s):  
John Hogland ◽  
Christopher J. Dunn ◽  
James D. Johnston
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Wildfire Risk ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Desired Future Conditions

Data-driven decision making is the key to providing effective and efficient wildfire protection and sustainable use of natural resources. Due to the complexity of natural systems, management decision(s) require clear justification based on substantial amounts of information that are both accurate and precise at various spatial scales. To build information and incorporate it into decision making, new analytical frameworks are required that incorporate innovative computational, spatial, statistical, and machine-learning concepts with field data and expert knowledge in a manner that is easily digestible by natural resource managers and practitioners. We prototyped such an approach using function modeling and batch processing to describe wildfire risk and the condition and costs associated with implementing multiple prescriptions for risk mitigation in the Blue Mountains of Oregon, USA. Three key aspects of our approach included: (1) spatially quantifying existing fuel conditions using field plots and Sentinel 2 remotely sensed imagery; (2) spatially defining the desired future conditions with regards to fuel objectives; and (3) developing a cost/revenue assessment (CRA). Each of these components resulted in spatially explicit surfaces describing fuels, treatments, wildfire risk, costs of implementation, projected revenues associated with the removal of tree volume and biomass, and associated estimates of model error. From those spatially explicit surfaces, practitioners gain unique insights into tradeoffs among various described prescriptions and can further weigh those tradeoffs against financial and logistical constraints. These types of datasets, procedures, and comparisons provide managers with the information needed to identify, optimize, and justify prescriptions across the landscape.

scholarly journals A theory for ecological survey methods to map individual distributions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nao Takashina ◽  
Maria Beger ◽  
Buntarou Kusumoto ◽  
Suren Rathnayake ◽  
Hugh P. Possingham
Keyword(s):  
Point Processes ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Mapping Unit ◽  
Ecological Survey ◽  
Multiple Spatial Scales ◽  
Management Actions

AbstractSpatially-explicit approaches are widely recommended for ecosystem management. The quality of the data, such as presence/absence or habitat maps, affects the management actions recommended, and is, therefore, key to management success. However, available data are often biased and incomplete. Previous studies have advanced ways to resolve data bias and missing data, but questions remain about how we design ecological surveys to develop a dataset through field surveys. Ecological surveys may have multiple spatial scales, including the spatial extent of the target ecosystem (observation window), the resolution for mapping individual distributions (mapping unit), and the survey area within each mapping unit (sampling unit). We developed an ecological survey method for mapping individual distributions by applying spatially-explicit stochastic models. We used spatial point processes to describe individual spatial placements using either random or clustering processes. We then designed ecological surveys with different spatial scales and individual detectability. We found that the choice of mapping unit affected the presence mapped fraction, and the fraction of the total individuals covered by the presence mapped patches. Tradeoffs were found between these quantities and the map resolution, associated with equivalent asymptotic behaviors for both metrics at sufficiently small and large mapping unit scales. Our approach enabled consideration of the effect of multiple spatial scales in surveys, and estimation of the survey outcomes such as the presence mapped fraction and the number of individuals situated in the presence detected units. The developed theory may facilitate management decision-making and inform the design of monitoring and data gathering.

Wildfire Communication and Climate Risk Mitigation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robyn S. Wilson ◽  
Sarah M. McCaffrey ◽  
Eric Toman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Strategic Communication ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Wildfire Risk ◽  
The Public ◽  
Resource Managers ◽  
Risk Management Process

Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire policy has changed to allow fire to be used as a management tool on the landscape, this change has been slow to take place, while the number of people living in high-risk wildland–urban interface communities continues to increase. Under a variety of climate scenarios, in particular for states in the western United States, it is expected that the frequency and severity of fires will continue to increase, posing even greater risks to local communities and regional economies.Resource managers and public safety officials are increasingly aware of the need for strategic communication to both encourage appropriate risk mitigation behavior at the household level, as well as build continued public support for the use of fire as a management tool aimed at reducing future wildfire risk. Household decision making encompasses both proactively engaging in risk mitigation activities on private property, as well as taking appropriate action during a wildfire event to protect personal safety. Very little research has directly explored the connection between climate-related beliefs, wildfire risk perception, and action; however, the limited existing research suggests that climate-related beliefs have little direct effect on wildfire-related action. Instead, action appears to depend on understanding the benefits of different mitigation actions and in engaging the public in interactive, participatory communication programs that build trust between the public and natural resource managers. A relatively new line of research focuses on resource managers as critical decision makers in the risk management process, pointing to the need to thoughtfully engage audiences other than the lay public to improve risk management.Ultimately, improving the decision making of both the public and managers charged with mitigating the risks associated with wildfire can be achieved by carefully addressing several common themes from the literature. These themes are to (1) promote increased efficacy through interactive learning, (2) build trust and capacity through social interaction, (3) account for behavioral constraints and barriers to action, and (4) facilitate thoughtful consideration of risk-benefit tradeoffs. Careful attention to these challenges will improve the likelihood of successfully managing the increasing risks that wildfire poses to the public and ecosystems alike in a changing climate.

scholarly journals Numerical Implementation of a Fuzzy Model for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Technological Innovations in the Formation of a Portfolio of Projects in an Industrial Enterprise

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
O M Shatalova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Industrial Enterprise ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Technological Innovations ◽  
Numerical Implementation ◽  
Management Decision Making

A high uncertainty and fuzziness of information in the systems of development and organizations production of technological innovations are forming the need to use adequate management decision-making tools. A key condition for decisions in such systems is, as a rule, the criterion of efficiency. The paper presents the results of the numerical implementation of a methodological approach to evaluating the effectiveness of technological innovations from the standpoint of non-stochastic uncertainty. The approach is based on fuzzy calculations and fuzzy modeling. This approach is aimed at integrating deterministic, stochastic and expert knowledge of the system; it provides an expanded view of the content of the “effectiveness” category itself and the composition of relevant factors, allows you to take into account the restrictions and preferences of decision makers relevant to the system under study. The considered approach is adapted to the specifics of managing technological innovation in an industrial enterprise. The results of the development and numerical implementation of a fuzzy model for evaluating the effectiveness of technological innovations have led to the conclusion that the approach used expands (complements) the composition of the existing methods in this field of knowledge; the numerical value of the efficiency (W) obtained in the fuzzy model can be considered as an additional analytical indicator of information support of the management decision-making process; the significance of this indicator is due to the fact that the indicator W reveals strategically significant prerequisites and provides clarification (justification) of the values of the key technical and economic parameters. The fuzzy W evaluation model allows for combining deterministic and stochastic data with expert estimates and to formalize mental judgments of decision makers using language means of mathematics. Thus, the prerequisites for building an intelligent automated decision-making system in the management of innovative processes and projects in the enterprise are provided.

scholarly journals Conserving Refugia: What Are We Protecting and Why?

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Maurizio Rossetto ◽  
Robert Kooyman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Buffer Zones ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Refugia play an important role in contributing to the conservation of species and communities by buffering environmental conditions over time. As large natural landscapes worldwide are declining and are increasingly threatened by extreme events, critical decision-making in biological conservation depends on improved understanding of what is being protected by refugia and why. We provide three novel definitions for refugia (i.e., persistent, future, and temporary) that incorporate ecological and evolutionary dynamics into a land management decision framework and are applicable across changing temporal and spatial settings. Definitions are supported by identification, core value, and management strategy criteria to assist short- and long-term decision-making. We illustrate these concepts using the World Heritage Gondwana Rainforests (WHGR) of eastern Australia, briefly exploring the spatial and temporal factors that can inform the development of conservation management strategies following the extreme fire events of 2019–2020. For the WHGR, available knowledge can be used to protect critical assets by recognizing and implementing buffer zones and corridor connections, and by undertaking emergency translocations of target species into safe areas that will act as future refugia. More broadly, we suggest that the identification and protection of ecological and evolutionary processes across varying temporal and spatial scales is central to securing improved biodiversity conservation outcomes.

scholarly journals Linking knowledge with action in the pursuit of sustainable water-resources management

2010 ◽  
Vol 113 (17) ◽  
pp. 4591-4596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharine Jacobs ◽  
Louis Lebel ◽  
James Buizer ◽  
Lee Addams ◽  
Pamela Matson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
National Level ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽  
Participatory Processes

Managing water for sustainable use and economic development is both a technical and a governance challenge in which knowledge production and sharing play a central role. This article evaluates and compares the role of participatory governance and scientific information in decision-making in four basins in Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, and the United States. Water management institutions in each of the basins have evolved during the last 10–20 years from a relatively centralized water-management structure at the state or national level to a decision structure that involves engaging water users within the basins and the development of participatory processes. This change is consistent with global trends in which states increasingly are expected to gain public acceptance for larger water projects and policy changes. In each case, expanded citizen engagement in identifying options and in decision-making processes has resulted in more complexity but also has expanded the culture of integrated learning. International funding for water infrastructure has been linked to requirements for participatory management processes, but, ironically, this study finds that participatory processes appear to work better in the context of decisions that are short-term and easily adjusted, such as water-allocation decisions, and do not work so well for longer-term, high-stakes decisions regarding infrastructure. A second important observation is that the costs of capacity building to allow meaningful stakeholder engagement in water-management decision processes are not widely recognized. Failure to appreciate the associated costs and complexities may contribute to the lack of successful engagement of citizens in decisions regarding infrastructure.

Ecotoxicology and sustainable use of the planet

2002 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 162-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Cairns
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Support System ◽  
Life Support ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Life Support System ◽  
Natural Systems

The goal of sustainable use is indefinite use of the planet by humankind. This objective, in turn, requires that the planet’s ecological life support system, consisting of natural capital and ecosystem services, remains healthy for an indefinite period. Achieving sustainability will require a new view of the responsibilities of professionals, such as ecotoxicologists, to ensure a healthy ecological life support system. Because both human society and natural systems are complex and multivariate, a high degree of uncertainty will remain. Therefore, sound judgment will be needed in determining what, if any, precautionary measures should be taken until more robust information has been gathered. The role of ecotoxicologists in the quest for sustainable use of the planet is quite varied: 1) shifting goals and endpoints from an absence of harm to persuasive evidence of health; 2) increasing both temporal and spatial scales of ecotoxicological studies; 3) achieving a critical mass of qualified personnel; 4) including demographic change in ecotoxicological analysis and judgment; 5) developing new ecological thresholds; 6) being prepared for environmental surprises; 7) focusing on design for a quality environment; 8) developing ecosystem services as endpoints in ecotoxicological studies, and 9) being prepared for climate change and other events that might destabilize the biosphere and require major adjustments in the process of ecotoxicological testing. Both sustainable use of the planet and the field of ecotoxicology are rapidly developing fields that are mostly evolving in isolation from each other. To be successful, they must co-evolve.

scholarly journals About methods of support for management decision-making under conditions of significant uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Baluta ◽  
Vladimir Osipov ◽  
Oleg Yakovenko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Computer Modeling ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Management Decision

Attempts to improve the quality of managerial decisions by introducing modern advances in information technology in various areas of public administration (socio-humanitarian, strategic, foreign policy, etc.) do not give the desired effect, comparable to the effect of their implementation in the manufacturing sector. The solution to this problem requires qualitatively new approaches to the issues of information and analytical support for decision-making in conditions of significant uncertainty. This article highlights the difficulties of predictive management of social processes based on direct computer modeling of social systems, considers the disadvantages of expert decision support methods used in practice, and proposes new technologies for applying expert knowledge and competencies based on the use of computer modeling and research. Current approaches to working with experts can be described as methods of coordinating the opinions of a group of experts based on their personal views (models) on the issue under discussion. Our experience has shown that creating a common integrated model by a group of experts gives a much better result. While the traditional approach can be called "group" intelligence, the new approach is called "collective" intelligence. In addition, methods of decision support using artificial intelligence systems are currently being intensively developed. We propose to begin work on the creation of "hybrid" intelligence with the integration of these approaches to obtain a synergistic effect.

The public—expert interface in local waste management decisions: expertise, credibility and process

1997 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 359-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Petts
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Waste Management ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Top Down ◽  
The Public ◽  
Management Decision Making

Decision-making strategies which favour the top-down model do not recognize expertise as a communication and learning process, and have been seen to fail in many risk management contexts, in particular in local waste management decision-making. Examination of a novel public involvement programme in the development of a local waste strategy provides an opportunity to understand expertise as a process: in particular, (i) how expert knowledge is selected at the technical-democratic interface, (ii) how information is shaped and balanced, and (iii) whether knowledge shifts during processes of exposure to expertise. It provides evidence that counters expert views that the public are irrational, lack interest, and are concerned only about zero-risk options. Most importantly, it provides evidence that expertise is inextricably linked to its source, and that perceptions that expertise is not independent have a significant impact on public responses. Means to optimize the process of expertise are discussed.

Centralization and Effectiveness of Reward Management in Multinational Enterprises

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Tekieli ◽  
Marion Festing ◽  
Xavier Baeten
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Identity Theory ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Role Identity ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Role Identities ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Subsidiary Managers ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Based on responses from 158 reward managers located at the headquarters or subsidiaries of multinational enterprises, the present study examines the relationship between the centralization of reward management decision making and its perceived effectiveness in multinational enterprises. Our results show that headquarters managers perceive a centralized approach as being more effective, while for subsidiary managers this relationship is moderated by the manager’s role identity. Referring to social identity theory, the present study enriches the standardization versus localization debate through a new perspective focusing on psychological processes, thereby indicating the importance of in-group favoritism in headquarters and the influence of subsidiary managers’ role identities on reward management decision making.

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