scholarly journals The Dynamic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Log Prices in China: An Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 449
Author(s):  
Chenlu Tao ◽  
Gang Diao ◽  
Baodong Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
The Impact

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and COVID-19 Pandemic on BIST Petrochemical Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-33
Author(s):  
Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Information Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Index Exchange ◽  
Liberal Market Economy

Stock markets are developing with the economic growth of the countries in a liberal market economy. Petrochemicals is an indicator of the performance of the country's industry with high inter-industry linkage by providing input to several sectors, producing various outputs with a certain number of raw materials. The COVID-19 pandemic period has affected all markets worldwide and caused fluctuations in the index values of large firms in the petrochemical industry in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). This study analyzes the impact of the pandemic period and change in the oil prices and exchange rate on the petrochemical market in Turkey. The monthly data of petrochemical stock market index, exchange rate, oil prices are used in this time series analysis. A pandemic information index representing the COVID-19 pandemic was derived and included in the model. According to the results, it is observed that the most important determinant of the fluctuations on the BIST petrochemical index is the oil prices. While a shock in oil prices negatively affects the BIST petrochemical index, the petrochemical index responds positively to the shock in the pandemic index.

scholarly journals The Impact of Informatization of Society on the Labor Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3Sup1) ◽  
pp. 155-167
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Yashchyk ◽  
◽  
Valentyna Shevchenko ◽  
Viktoriia Kiptenko ◽  
Oleksandra Razumova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Industrial Society ◽  
Information And Computer Technology ◽  
Cloud Technologies ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the transformation of the labor market under the influence of informatization of society. It is noted that in the conditions of globalization and informatization of the nowadays a post-industrial society has been formed, in which information is a determining factor of production. New opportunities and challenges of the labor market in the conditions of information society development are analyzed. The informatization of society changes the conditions, nature and forms of work. Extensive digitalization, the use of cloud technologies and artificial intelligence systems are displacing traditional forms of employment towards teleworking, which makes workers more mobile and able to optimize working hours. It is established that the spread of technology increases the efficiency of the recruitment and searching job processes. Informatization of society contributes to the creation of a digital labor market, which forms the demand and supply of information and computer technology workers. In the context of informatization of society, the labor market is characterized by an imbalance between supply and demand of labor due to structural changes in the economy. Among the challenges of the labor market are rising unemployment in the raw materials industries, robotics and automation of routine manual labor. The digitalization of the economy leads to the need to adjust government regulation of business and provide social guarantees for employees. It is noted that the informatization of society provides more benefits to the labor market than obstacles. Solving the problems it raises, promotes progress and economic development.

International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Nazarov ◽  
S. S. Lazaryan ◽  
I. V. Nikonov ◽  
A. I. Votinov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Basic Commodity ◽  
The Impact

The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı ◽  
Gül Huyugüzel Kışla ◽  
A. Nazif Çatık
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Structural Break Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Gas

AbstractThis study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Manufacturing Supply Chain Performance for Urgent Item During COVID-19 Outbreak

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-31
Author(s):  
Ali Arishi ◽  
Krishna K Krishnan ◽  
Vatsal Maru
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Combine System ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Digital Twin ◽  
Twin Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reaction Patterns

As COVID-19 pandemic spreads in different regions with varying intensity, supply chains (SC) need to utilize an effective mechanism to adjust spike in both supply and demand of resources, and need techniques to detect unexpected behavior in SC at an early stage. During COVID-19 pandemic, the demand of medical supplies and essential products increases unexpectedly while the availability of recourses and raw materials decreases significantly. As such, the questions of SC and society survivability were raised. Responding to this urgent demand quickly and predicting how it will vary as the pandemic progresses is a key modeling question. In this research, we take the initiative in addressing the impact of COVID-19 disruption on manufacturing SC performance overwhelmed by the unprecedented demands of urgent items by developing a digital twin model for the manufacturing SC. In this model, we combine system dynamic simulation and artificial intelligence to dynamically monitor SC performance and predict SC reaction patterns. The simulation modeling is used to study the disruption propagation in the manufacturing SC and the efficiency of the recovery policy. Then based on this model, we develop artificial neural network models to learn from disruptions and make an online prediction of potential risks. The developed digital twin model is aimed to operate in real-time for early identification of disruptions and the respective SC reaction patterns to increase SC visibility and resilience.

Technology, Inventing, and Patenting

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic World ◽  
Karl Marx ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Adam Smith ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
The United States ◽  
Early 19Th Century ◽  
Atlantic Seaboard ◽  
The Impact

The classic narrative of technology, invention, and patenting in the Atlantic world before 1850 focused on the industrialization of the Atlantic seaboard in Britain and the United States, with the adoption of mechanized cotton and wool textile production based on water power and then steam power, and on the development of related heavy industries. Other parts of the region appeared mainly as suppliers of raw materials, such as cotton from the American South, or as markets for the products of mechanized manufacture. While still a powerful narrative, most recent scholarship has reassessed or nuanced key elements, moving away from the traditional story of “heroic” inventors and toward more complex stories of supply and demand, including the capacity of economies and societies in the Atlantic world to supply the technical, commercial, and financial skills needed for invention and innovation, and the changing patterns of consumption and retail that created demand. Attention has also focused on innovation in other sectors, including armament production, transportation and public utilities, and the impact that innovation had upon the lives of those involved in it. Equally important has been a wider regional focus that now includes the southern territories of the Americas as important sites for innovation. Both Adam Smith and Karl Marx dismissed these areas of plantation agriculture as inefficient and irrelevant, a dead end compared to the centers of commerce and industry. Recent work has revised this by demonstrating the quasi-industrial processes required to process sugar, cotton, tobacco, indigo, and other tropical commodities; the scope for technological improvement; and the vast profits that enabled planters to invest in this technology. Leading plantation colonies such as Jamaica in the 18th century and Cuba in the early 19th century were among the first adopters of the steam engine outside Europe, where it had an equally transformative social and economic impact.

Exchange Rate and Industry-Level Energy Import

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-86
Author(s):  
Abdul Sahib ◽  
Sergey Prosekov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Impact

After the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1973, the free-floating exchange rate, the rate determined by the forces of supply and demand, began, which developed an interest in the area of many researchers to investigate, theoretically and empirically, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the world trade flows. There are two channels, direct and indirect, through which the change in exchange rate affects domestic prices. Under the direct channel, a fall in exchange rate leads to increase in imports as well as increases the prices of inputs in domestic currency. Secondly, under the indirect channel, a decline in the exchange rate triggers the availability of domestic goods to foreign buyers at a cheaper rate, and the demand for domestic products increased. Thus, the change in exchange rate affects trade flows either positively or negatively.

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