The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on International Trade: Evidence From Panel Structural VAR Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caglayan Aslan ◽  
Oguzhan Cepni ◽  
Selcuk Gul
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Var Model ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Asset Prices, Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Fluctuations: Some Structural VAR Evidence for Thailand

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Komain Jiranyakul
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

This paper is motivated by the controversial issue in the literature pertaining to the impact of real exchange rate, housing prices and stock prices on current account fluctuations. Thailand’s quarterly data are used to examine the impacts of shocks to asset prices and real exchange rate on the current imbalances. The paper employs a structural VAR methodology with short-run restrictions. The estimates of structural VAR models are able to identify interactions among asset prices, real exchange rate, and the current account. The estimated results from two different structural models show that the responses of current account to shocks are different. It can be concluded that shocks to real exchange rate affect current account and that shocks to real housing prices can better explain current account fluctuations than shocks to real stock prices. Based upon the results from this study, policymakers should take into account the importance of shocks to real exchange rate and real housing prices that can affect the current account of the country. 

scholarly journals Revisiting the role of exchange rate volatility in Turkey’s exports: Evidence from the structural VAR approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (231) ◽  
pp. 127-149
Author(s):  
Özge Barış-Tüzemen ◽  
Samet Tüzemen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is both an important economic variable when determining a country?s export volume and an indicator of its international competitiveness. This paper re-investigates the impact of real exchange rate volatility on Turkey?s exports using the structural vector autoregression method and monthly data from 2003:01 to 2019:12. Empirical evidence shows that real exchange rate and exchange rate volatility do not affect exports in Turkey. On the other hand, external income has had a slight effect on Turkey?s exports in the post-global-crisis period. The findings show that other factors which effect macroeconomic indicators in the Turkish economy should also be considered.

International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Nazarov ◽  
S. S. Lazaryan ◽  
I. V. Nikonov ◽  
A. I. Votinov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Basic Commodity ◽  
The Impact

The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.

The impact of exchange rate on price and export of agricultural production

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-18
Author(s):  
Rasulov Tulkin Sattarovich ◽  
Khushvaktov Kuvonchbek Ravshanovich
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Agricultural Economics ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
International Trade Laws ◽  
The Impact

In today’s world of swiftly increasing global economy and continuously changing international trade laws and technology exchange rate plays a pivotal role in the production, price formation, export and import of agricultural products. For many years exchange rate as an integral part of agricultural economics has been ignored. The present study was intended to investigate exchange rate as an impacting factor on the agricultural production. It also considers the researches that have been carried about the impact of the exchange rate on prices and export of agricultural products, theirs analyses and how much impact it has in the situation of Uzbekistan.

Open Door System and Endogenous Growth in Indian Economy: An Empirical Analysis on the Role of Human Capital and R&D in Explaining Industrial Productivity

2021 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-37
Author(s):  
Arjun K. ◽  
Sanjay Kumar ◽  
A. Sankaran ◽  
Mousumi Das
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Knowledge Capital ◽  
Test Technique ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The present study investigates the impact of human capital, knowledge capital which is a function of human capital, and real exchange rate scenario in explaining long-run industrial total factor productivity (TFP) from 1980 to 2015 on the theoretical basis of the open endogenous growth model. The variables employed in the contemporary study include manufacturing value added (MNVA) as industrial output measure, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a measure of capital and labour input which is measured using employment data. Gross enrolment ratio (GER) is taken as a measure for human capital formation, expenditure on research and development (R&D) as a proxy for knowledge capital, and real exchange rate indicates global economic shocks. The study involves estimating TFP for Industrial Sector during the post-liberalization period by employing Cobb-Douglas production function. The ARDL bounds test technique for cointegration revealed long-run relation among the varying factors studied. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test concluded bi-directional causality running between, R&D expenditure and Industrial TFP which sends a strong signal to the policymakers for a well-framed long-term integrated approach for human & knowledge capital formation which will act as a strong impetus for manufacturing firms to come up in terms of augmenting production and productivity and expanding foreign market horizon. JEL Classification: D24, E2, J24

scholarly journals The Dynamic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Log Prices in China: An Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 449
Author(s):  
Chenlu Tao ◽  
Gang Diao ◽  
Baodong Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
The Impact

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.

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