scholarly journals Using a Trait-Based Approach to Compare Tree Species Sensitivity to Climate Change Stressors in Eastern Canada and Inform Adaptation Practices

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Boisvert-Marsh ◽  
Samuel Royer-Tardif ◽  
Philippe Nolet ◽  
Frédérik Doyon ◽  
Isabelle Aubin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Acer Rubrum ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ecological Knowledge ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments

Despite recent advances in understanding tree species sensitivities to climate change, ecological knowledge on different species remains scattered across disparate sources, precluding their inclusion in vulnerability assessments. Information on potential sensitivities is needed to identify tree species that require consideration, inform changes to current silvicultural practices and prioritize management actions. A trait-based approach was used to overcome some of the challenges involved in assessing sensitivity, providing a common framework to facilitate data integration and species comparisons. Focusing on 26 abundant tree species from eastern Canada, we developed a series of trait-based indices that capture a species’ ability to cope with three key climate change stressors—increased drought events, shifts in climatically suitable habitat, increased fire intensity and frequency. Ten indices were developed by breaking down species’ response to a stressor into its strategies, mechanisms and traits. Species-specific sensitivities varied across climate stressors but also among the various ways a species can cope with a given stressor. Of the 26 species assessed, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Abies balsamea (L.) Mill are classified as the most sensitive species across all indices while Acer rubrum L. and Populus spp. are the least sensitive. Information was found for 95% of the trait-species combinations but the quality of available data varies between indices and species. Notably, some traits related to individual-level sensitivity to drought were poorly documented as well as deciduous species found within the temperate biome. We also discuss how our indices compare with other published indices, using drought sensitivity as an example. Finally, we discuss how the information captured by these indices can be used to inform vulnerability assessments and the development of adaptation measures for species with different management requirements under climate change.

scholarly journals Projected Wind Impact on Abies balsamea (Balsam fir)-Dominated Stands in New Brunswick (Canada) Based on Remote Sensing and Regional Modelling of Climate and Tree Species Distribution

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1177
Author(s):  
Charles P.-A. Bourque ◽  
Philippe Gachon ◽  
Benjamin R. MacLellan ◽  
James I. MacLellan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Regional Modelling ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Shallow Soils

The paper describes the development of predictive equations of windthrow for five tree species based on remote sensing of wind-affected stands in southwestern New Brunswick (NB). The data characterises forest conditions before, during and after the passing of extratropical cyclone Arthur, July 4–5, 2014. The five-variable logistic function developed for balsam fir (bF) was validated against remote-sensing-acquired windthrow data for bF-stands affected by the Christmas Mountains windthrow event of November 7, 1994. In general, the prediction of windthrow in the area agreed fairly well with the windthrow sites identified by photogrammetry. The occurrence of windthrow in the Christmas Mountains was prominent in areas with shallow soils and prone to localised accelerations in mean and turbulent airflow. The windthrow function for bF was subsequently used to examine the future impact of windthrow under two climate scenarios (RCP’s 4.5 and 8.5) and species response to local changes anticipated with global climate change, particularly with respect to growing degree-days and soil moisture. Under climate change, future windthrow in bF stands (2006–2100) is projected to be modified as the species withdraws from the high-elevation areas and NB as a whole, as the climate progressively warms and precipitation increases, causing the growing environment of bF to deteriorate.

scholarly journals Mixed Regional Shifts in Conifer Productivity under 21st-Century Climate Projections in Canada’s Northeastern Boreal Forest

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 248
Author(s):  
Tyler Searls ◽  
James Steenberg ◽  
Xinbiao Zhu ◽  
Charles P.-A. Bourque ◽  
Fan-Rui Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Acer Rubrum ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Climate Projections

Models of forest growth and yield (G&Y) are a key component in long-term strategic forest management plans. Models leveraging the industry-standard “empirical” approach to G&Y are frequently underpinned by an assumption of historical consistency in climatic growing conditions. This assumption is problematic as forest managers look to obtain reliable growth predictions under the changing climate of the 21st century. Consequently, there is a pressing need for G&Y modelling approaches that can be more robustly applied under the influence of climate change. In this study we utilized an established forest gap model (JABOWA-3) to simulate G&Y between 2020 and 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Simulations were completed using the province’s permanent sample plot data and surface-fitted climatic datasets. Through model validation, we found simulated basal area (BA) aligned with observed BA for the major conifer species components of NL’s forests, including black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton et al.] and balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill]. Model validation was not as robust for the less abundant species components of NL (e.g., Acer rubrum L. 1753, Populus tremuloides Michx., and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss). Our simulations generally indicate that projected climatic changes may modestly increase black spruce and balsam fir productivity in the more northerly growing environments within NL. In contrast, we found productivity of these same species to only be maintained, and in some instances even decline, toward NL’s southerly extents. These generalizations are moderated by species, RCP, and geographic parameters. Growth modifiers were also prepared to render empirical G&Y projections more robust for use under periods of climate change.

scholarly journals Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 20180189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Meade ◽  
Jeremy VanDerWal ◽  
Collin Storlie ◽  
Stephen Williams ◽  
Arnaud Gourret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Potential Applicability

Increases in mean temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change increase the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. Although extreme temperature events are likely to become increasingly important drivers of species' response to climate change, the impacts are poorly understood owing mainly to a lack of understanding of species’ physiological responses to extreme temperatures. The physiological response of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum) to temperature extremes has been well studied, demonstrating that heterothermy is used to reduce evaporative water loss at temperatures greater than 30°C. Dehydration is likely to limit survival when animals are exposed to a critical thermal regime of ≥30°C, for ≥5 h, for ≥4 consecutive days. In this study, we use this physiological information to assess P. archeri's vulnerability to climate change. We identify areas of current thermo-suitable habitat (validated using sightings), then estimate future thermo-suitable habitat for P. archeri , under four emission scenarios. Our projections indicate that up to 86% of thermo-suitable habitat could be lost by 2085, a serious conservation concern for the species. We demonstrate the potential applicability of our approach for generating spatio-temporally explicit predictions of the vulnerability of species to extreme temperature events, providing a focus for efficient and targeted conservation and habitat restoration management.

Traits to stay, traits to move: a review of functional traits to assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity of temperate and boreal trees to climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 164-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Aubin ◽  
A.D. Munson ◽  
F. Cardou ◽  
P.J. Burton ◽  
N. Isabel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Functional Traits ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Recovery Capacity ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments

The integration of functional traits into vulnerability assessments is a promising approach to quantitatively capture differences in species sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change, allowing the refinement of tree species distribution models. In response to a clear need to identify traits that are responsive to climate change and applicable in a management context, we review the state of knowledge of the main mechanisms, and their associated traits, that underpin the ability of boreal and temperate tree species to persist and (or) shift their distribution in a changing climate. We aimed to determine whether current knowledge is sufficiently mature and available to be used effectively in vulnerability assessments. Marshalling recent conceptual advances and assessing data availability, our ultimate objective is to guide modellers and practitioners in finding and selecting sets of traits that can be used to capture differences in species’ ability to persist and migrate. While the physiological mechanisms that determine sensitivity to climate change are relatively well understood (e.g., drought-induced cavitation), many associated traits have not been systematically documented for North American trees and differences in methodology preclude their widespread integration into vulnerability assessments (e.g., xylem recovery capacity). In contrast, traits traditionally associated with the ability to migrate and withstand fire are generally well documented, but new key traits are emerging in the context of climate change that have not been as well characterized (e.g., age of optimum seed production). More generally, lack of knowledge surrounding the extent and patterns in intraspecific trait variation, as well as co-variation and interaction among traits, limit our ability to use this approach to assess tree adaptive capacity. We conclude by outlining research needs and potential strategies for the development of trait-based knowledge applicable in large-scale modelling efforts, sketching out important aspects of trait data organization that should be part of a coordinated effort by the forest science community.

scholarly journals Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
Anantha M. Prasad ◽  
Matthew P. Peters ◽  
Stephen N. Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Face ◽  
Suitable Habitats

We modeled and combined outputs for 125 tree species for the eastern United States, using habitat suitability and colonization potential models along with an evaluation of adaptation traits. These outputs allowed, for the first time, the compilation of tree species’ current and future potential for each unit of 55 national forests and grasslands and 469 1 × 1 degree grids across the eastern United States. A habitat suitability model, a migration simulation model, and an assessment based on biological and disturbance factors were used with United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to evaluate species potential to migrate or infill naturally into suitable habitats over the next 100 years. We describe a suite of variables, by species, for each unique geographic unit, packaged as summary tables describing current abundance, potential future change in suitable habitat, adaptability, and capability to cope with the changing climate, and colonization likelihood over 100 years. This resulting synthesis and summation effort, culminating over two decades of work, provides a detailed data set that incorporates habitat quality, land cover, and dispersal potential, spatially constrained, for nearly all the tree species of the eastern United States. These tables and maps provide an estimate of potential species trends out 100 years, intended to deliver managers and publics with practical tools to reduce the vast set of decisions before them as they proactively manage tree species in the face of climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling the effects of bioclimatic characteristics and climate change on the potential distribution of a monospecific species Colophospermum mopane (Benth.) Leonard in southern Africa.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boniface K. Ngarega ◽  
Valerie Farai Masocha ◽  
Harald Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
African Region ◽  
African Species ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
Colophospermum Mopane ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Southern African Region

Global climate change is gradually changing species distribution and their patterns of diversity. Yet, factors that influence the local distribution and habitat preferences for southern African species remain largely unexplored. Here, we computed the suitable habitats in the southern African region for Colophospermum mopane (Benth.) using the maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling approach. We utilized one Global Circulation Model (GCM) and three Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to determine the current and future distribution of C. mopane. The results showed that the distribution of C. mopane was mainly influenced by solar radiation, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. According to the species response curves, this species preferred habitats with annual precipitation of 130-200 mm, an annual temperature range of 28˚ C, and elevations of about 500 m above sea level. The results highlight that the geographic range of C. mopane is likely to expand along the borders of Zambia and Zimbabwe in the future, particularly in the miombo plains. Conversely, suitable habitat areas reduce significantly in the eastern area of the southern African region, while the western areas expand. Overall, the appropriate habitat areas will likely decline in the 2050s under both RCPs and expand in the 2070s under the two scenarios. This knowledge is important for landscape planners and rangeland managers working to safeguard biodiversity from extinction.

Influence of water temperature and biotic interactions on the distribution of Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) in a population stronghold under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kadie B. Heinle ◽  
Lisa A. Eby ◽  
Clint C. Muhlfeld ◽  
Amber C. Steed ◽  
Leslie A. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Cutthroat Trout ◽  
Stream Temperature ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Bull Trout ◽  
Westslope Cutthroat Trout ◽  
Oncorhynchus Clarkii ◽  
Species Response

Climate warming is expected to have substantial impacts on native trout across the Rocky Mountains, but there is little understanding of how these changes affect future distributions of co-occurring native fishes within population strongholds. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to investigate the role of abiotic (e.g., temperature) and biotic factors (Bull Trout presence, Salvelinus confluentus) on distributions of Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi; WCT) in the North Fork Flathead River, USA and Canada. The probability of WCT presence increased with stream temperature and decreased with channel gradient and Bull Trout presence, yet the effect of Bull Trout was reduced with increasing pool densities. Combining this model with spatially-explicit stream temperature projections, we predict a 29% increase in suitable habitat under high emissions through 2075, with gains at mid-elevation sites predicted to exceed Bull Trout thermal tolerances and high-elevation sites expected to become more thermally suitable for WCT. Our study illustrates the importance of considering abiotic and biotic drivers to assess species response to climate change, helping to guide local scale climate adaptation and management.

Projected ocean warming creates a conservation challenge for river herring populations

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 374-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick D. Lynch ◽  
Janet A. Nye ◽  
Jonathan A. Hare ◽  
Charles A. Stock ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Marine Habitat ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Species Response ◽  
River Herring

Abstract The term river herring collectively refers to alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (A. aestivalis), two anadromous fishes distributed along the east coast of North America. Historically, river herring spawning migrations supported important fisheries, and their spawning runs continue to be of cultural significance to many coastal communities. Recently, substantial declines in spawning run size prompted a petition to consider river herring for listing under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The ESA status review process requires an evaluation of a species’ response to multiple stressors, including climate change. For anadromous species that utilize a range of habitats throughout their life cycle, the response to a changing global climate is inherently complex and likely varies regionally. River herring occupy marine habitat for most of their lives, and we demonstrate that their relative abundance in the ocean has been increasing in recent years. We project potential effects of ocean warming along the US Atlantic coast on river herring in two seasons (spring and fall), and two future periods (2020–2060 and 2060–2100) by linking species distribution models to projected temperature changes from global climate models. Our analyses indicate that climate change will likely result in reductions in total suitable habitat across the study region, which will alter the marine distribution of river herring. We also project that density will likely decrease for both species in fall, but may increase in spring. Finally, we demonstrate that river herring may have increased sensitivity to climate change under a low abundance scenario. This result could be an important consideration for resource managers when planning for climate change because establishing effective conservation efforts in the near term may improve population resiliency and provide lasting benefits to river herring populations.

scholarly journals Comparative growth trends of five northern hardwood and montane tree species reveal divergent trajectories and response to climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 743-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra M. Kosiba ◽  
Paul G. Schaberg ◽  
Shelly A. Rayback ◽  
Gary J. Hawley
Keyword(s):  
Tree Species ◽  
Sugar Maple ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Acer Rubrum ◽  
Red Spruce ◽  
Balsam Fir ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Betula Alleghaniensis ◽  
Red Maple ◽  
Yellow Birch

In the northeastern United States, tree declines associated with acid deposition induced calcium depletion have been documented, notably for red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). There is conflicting evidence concerning whether co-occurring tree species capitalized on these declines or suffered similar growth reductions and on how growth has fluctuated relative to environmental variables. We examined five species along three elevational transects on Mt. Mansfield, Vermont: sugar maple, red spruce, red maple (Acer rubrum L.), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.). We found baseline differences in growth. Red maple and yellow birch had the highest growth, sugar maple and red spruce had intermediate growth, and balsam fir had the lowest growth. While some year-to-year declines were associated with specific stress events, protracted patterns such as recent increases in red spruce and red maple growth were correlated with increased temperature and cooling degree days (heat index). For most species and elevations, there was a positive association between temperature and growth but a negative association with growth in the following year. Based on our comparisons, for some species, growth at Mt. Mansfield aligns with regional trends and suggests that patterns assessed here may be indicative of the broader region.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US: Results of DISTRIB-II Modeling

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Iverson ◽  
Matthew Peters ◽  
Anantha Prasad ◽  
Stephen Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Forests across the globe are faced with a rapidly changing climate and an enhanced understanding of how these changing conditions may impact these vital resources is needed. Our approach is to use DISTRIB-II, an updated version of the Random Forest DISTRIB model, to model 125 tree species individually from the eastern United States to quantify potential current and future habitat responses under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 -high emissions which is our current trajectory and RCP 4.5 -lower emissions by implementing energy conservation) and three climate models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. On average, of the 125 species, approximately 88 species would gain and 26 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat. The projected change in the center of gravity for each species distribution (i.e., mean center) between current and future habitat moves generally northeast, with 81 species habitat centers potentially moving over 100 km under RCP 8.5. Collectively, our results suggest that many species will experience less pressure in tracking their suitable habitats under a path of lower greenhouse gas emissions.

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