scholarly journals Substantial reduction in thermo-suitable microhabitat for a rainforest marsupial under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 20180189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Meade ◽  
Jeremy VanDerWal ◽  
Collin Storlie ◽  
Stephen Williams ◽  
Arnaud Gourret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Potential Applicability

Increases in mean temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change increase the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. Although extreme temperature events are likely to become increasingly important drivers of species' response to climate change, the impacts are poorly understood owing mainly to a lack of understanding of species’ physiological responses to extreme temperatures. The physiological response of Pseudochirops archeri (green ringtail possum) to temperature extremes has been well studied, demonstrating that heterothermy is used to reduce evaporative water loss at temperatures greater than 30°C. Dehydration is likely to limit survival when animals are exposed to a critical thermal regime of ≥30°C, for ≥5 h, for ≥4 consecutive days. In this study, we use this physiological information to assess P. archeri's vulnerability to climate change. We identify areas of current thermo-suitable habitat (validated using sightings), then estimate future thermo-suitable habitat for P. archeri , under four emission scenarios. Our projections indicate that up to 86% of thermo-suitable habitat could be lost by 2085, a serious conservation concern for the species. We demonstrate the potential applicability of our approach for generating spatio-temporally explicit predictions of the vulnerability of species to extreme temperature events, providing a focus for efficient and targeted conservation and habitat restoration management.

scholarly journals Future Temperature Extremes Will Be More Harmful: A New Critical Factor for Improved Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 4015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Costas A. Varotsos ◽  
Yuri A. Mazei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
The Past

There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events such as frequent and intense cold spells and heat waves cause unprecedented deaths and diseases in both developed and developing countries. Thus, they require extensive and immediate research to limit the risks involved. Average temperatures in Europe in June–July 2019 were the hottest ever measured and attributed to climate change. The problem, however, of a thorough study of natural climate change is the lack of experimental data from the long past, where anthropogenic activity was then very limited. Today, this problem can be successfully resolved using, inter alia, biological indicators that have provided reliable environmental information for thousands of years in the past. The present study used high-resolution quantitative reconstruction data derived from biological records of Lake Silvaplana sediments covering the period 1181–1945. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a slight temperature change in the past could trigger current or future intense temperature change or changes. Modern analytical tools were used for this purpose, which eventually showed that temperature fluctuations were persistent. That is, they exhibit long memory with scaling behavior, which means that an increase (decrease) in temperature in the past was always followed by another increase (decrease) in the future with multiple amplitudes. Therefore, the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events due to climate change will be more pronounced than expected. This will affect human well-being and mortality more than that estimated in today’s modeling scenarios. The scaling property detected here can be used for more accurate monthly to decadal forecasting of extreme temperature events. Thus, it is possible to develop improved early warning systems that will reduce the public health risk at local, national, and international levels.

scholarly journals Waldbauliche Massnahmen für das Auerhuhn im Sonderwaldreservat Amden: ein erstes Fazit

2014 ◽  
Vol 165 (4) ◽  
pp. 87-96
Author(s):  
Nicolas Bircher ◽  
Harald Bugmann ◽  
Kurt Bollmann
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Ground Vegetation ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Forest Reserve ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
Core Areas ◽  
Restoration Measures

Silvicultural habitat restoration measures for the capercaillie in the special forest reserve of Amden: a first review As a threatened forest grouse species, the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) depends on conservation actions in core areas of its Alpine distribution. In this study, we looked at the species' response to silvicultural measures in the special forest reserve of Amden in the canton of St. Gallen, Switzerland. Here, silvicultural measures were taken between 2006 and 2009 in stands that had previously been classified as less or not suitable for capercaillie. In summer 2010, we investigated how stands used by the species differed from unused ones by relating indirect evidence of species presence with forest structural and compositional variables. Evidence of species' habitat use was found in 12 out of 33 surveyed stands. Used stands showed a significantly higher share of bilberry in the ground vegetation layer, a higher proportion of coniferous trees and a lower canopy cover. Furthermore, the proportion of suitable habitat in immediate vicinity of the treated forest stand was higher in used stands. Our results support that habitat restoration by logging is a promising method to improve capercaillie habitat, in particular in fir-spruce forests, where the effectivity of restoration measures was higher compared to fir-beech forests. Hence, managing guidance for the future selection of stands for restoration should be based on habitat suitability of the stand itself and on an appropriate habitat quality of adjacent forest stands.

Variability of Temperature Extremes in Northwest Himalayas during Early 21st Century.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farhan Aziz ◽  
Nadeem Tariq ◽  
Akif Rahim ◽  
Ambreen Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Northwest Himalayas

<p>In recent years, extreme events and their severe damage have become more common around the world. It is widely known that atmospheric greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. <br>A set of appropriate indicators describing the extremes of climate change can be used to study the extent of climate change. This study reveals the trends of temperature extreme indices on the spatial scale in the western part of Northwest Himalayas. The study is conducted at 13 climate stations lies at a different altitude of the study area.The Daily maximum and minimum temperature data during 2000--2018 of stations obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). The 12 extreme temperature indices (FD, SU, TXx , TXn., TNx, TNn, TN10p , TN90p, TX10p , TX90p, CSDI, WSDI) recommended by ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) are used to study the variabilities in temperature extremes. These indices are characterized based on amplitude, persistence, and frequency. The analysis is performed by using R package of extremes “RClimDEX”. The analysis shows the frequency of summer days (Su) and warm spells (WSDI) have increasing trends in the Southwest region, whereas the frequency of cold spells and frost days have decreasing trends observed in the Northern region of the study areas. The maximum and minimum values of daily maximum temperature (TXX, TXN) increase in the foothill area of the region and decreasing trends in the high elevation region. The day and night get cool in the Northwest region, whereas the days and nights are showing warmer trends in low elevation regions of the study area. Overall, the study concludes that the Northwestern parts have cool trends while South West and South eastern parts have warm trends during the early 21st century.</p><p><strong>Key words:</strong>  Temperature Extremes, Northwest Himalayas, Trends, R-Climdex, Climate Change</p>

Occurrence of extreme temperature events – A Probable risk on natural rubber cultivation

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
K.K. Jayasooryan ◽  
P.R. Satheesh ◽  
R. Krishnakumar ◽  
James Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
The Past ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
Expert Team ◽  
Increasing Trends

<span style="line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="EN-GB">Climate change and occurrence of extreme temperature events were studied in Kottayam, a major rubber growing district in Kerala. Occurrence of extreme temperature events can affect the livelihood of rubber growers apart from the ecological impact. The present study was conducted by analysing the occurrence of extreme temperature events in the past 40 years (1970-2010) using the RClimDex package developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI), Canada. Temporal variations in trends of occurrence of extreme temperature events were tested with Mann-Kendall trend analysis. The 5-year diurnal temperature range (DTR, difference between monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures) increased from 7.8 (during 1970-1974) to 9.2 0C (during 2006-2010). The monthly mean maximum temperature increased by 0.035 0C per year. Frequency of occurrence of hot days increased at a rate of 0.56 per cent per year and the highest temperature recorded in a month showed an increase of 0.038 0C per year. As observed, the increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme temperature events may eventually lead to the warming up of the region in future. The study indicates that the projected warming tendency in the traditional rubber growing regions of India may affect the rubber cultivation adversely.</span>

Temperature Extremes over China Simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0)

2013 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 898-902
Author(s):  
Jing Xin Li ◽  
Shi Gong Wang ◽  
Ke Zheng Shang ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Tian Yi Hao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau ◽  
Extreme Indices

Extreme temperature events in China have been simulated by using the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0). Daily observed temperature data for 1961-2006 at stations in China are used for comparison. The result shows that the value of simulation is consistent with the observation. But the consequence has a lower value especially Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; there is a good simulation for BCC_CSM1.0 for temperature and extreme indices over China in a certain range of error. Trends of indices of extreme temperature are increased.

scholarly journals Observed Changes in Return Values of Annual Temperature Extremes over Argentina

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (21) ◽  
pp. 5455-5467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matilde Rusticucci ◽  
Bárbara Tencer
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Maximum Minimum

Abstract Extreme temperature events are one of the most studied extreme events since their occurrence has a huge impact on society. In this study, the frequency of occurrence of absolute extreme temperature events in Argentina is analyzed. Four annual extremes are defined based on minimum and maximum daily data: the highest maximum (minimum) temperature of the year, and the lowest maximum (minimum) temperature of the year. Applying the extreme value theory (EVT), a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to these extreme indices and return values are calculated for the period 1956–2003. Its spatial distribution indicates that, for warm extremes, maximum temperature (Tx) is expected to be greater than 32°C at least once every 100 yr throughout the country (reaching values even higher than 46°C in the central region), while minimum temperature (Tn) is expected to exceed 16°C (reaching 30°C in the central and northern regions). Cold annual extremes show larger gradients across the country, with Tx being lower than 8°C at least once every 100 yr, and Tn lower than 0°C every 2 yr, with values even less than −10°C in the southwestern part of the country. However, the frequency of occurrence of climatic extremes has changed throughout the globe during the twentieth century. Changes in return values of annual temperature extremes due to the 1976–77 climatic shift at six long-term datasets are then analyzed. The lowest Tx of the year is the variable in which the 1976–77 shift is less noticeable. At all the stations studied there is a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the highest Tx if the study is based on more recent records, while the frequency of occurrence of the highest Tn increases at some stations and decreases at others. This implies that in the “present climate” (after 1977) there is a greater frequency of occurrence of high values of Tn at Observatorio Central Buenos Aires and Río Gallegos together with a lower frequency of occurrence of high values of Tx, leading to a decrease in the annual temperature range. The most noticeable change in return values due to the 1976–77 shift is seen in Patagonia where the 10-yr return value for the highest Tn increases from 13.7°C before 1976 to 18.6°C after 1977. That is, values of the highest Tn that occurred at least once every 10 yr in the “past climate” (before 1976) now happened more than once every 2 yr.

scholarly journals Modelling the effects of bioclimatic characteristics and climate change on the potential distribution of a monospecific species Colophospermum mopane (Benth.) Leonard in southern Africa.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boniface K. Ngarega ◽  
Valerie Farai Masocha ◽  
Harald Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
African Region ◽  
African Species ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
Colophospermum Mopane ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Southern African Region

Global climate change is gradually changing species distribution and their patterns of diversity. Yet, factors that influence the local distribution and habitat preferences for southern African species remain largely unexplored. Here, we computed the suitable habitats in the southern African region for Colophospermum mopane (Benth.) using the maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling approach. We utilized one Global Circulation Model (GCM) and three Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to determine the current and future distribution of C. mopane. The results showed that the distribution of C. mopane was mainly influenced by solar radiation, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. According to the species response curves, this species preferred habitats with annual precipitation of 130-200 mm, an annual temperature range of 28˚ C, and elevations of about 500 m above sea level. The results highlight that the geographic range of C. mopane is likely to expand along the borders of Zambia and Zimbabwe in the future, particularly in the miombo plains. Conversely, suitable habitat areas reduce significantly in the eastern area of the southern African region, while the western areas expand. Overall, the appropriate habitat areas will likely decline in the 2050s under both RCPs and expand in the 2070s under the two scenarios. This knowledge is important for landscape planners and rangeland managers working to safeguard biodiversity from extinction.

scholarly journals Using a Trait-Based Approach to Compare Tree Species Sensitivity to Climate Change Stressors in Eastern Canada and Inform Adaptation Practices

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Boisvert-Marsh ◽  
Samuel Royer-Tardif ◽  
Philippe Nolet ◽  
Frédérik Doyon ◽  
Isabelle Aubin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Acer Rubrum ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ecological Knowledge ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Species Response ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments

Despite recent advances in understanding tree species sensitivities to climate change, ecological knowledge on different species remains scattered across disparate sources, precluding their inclusion in vulnerability assessments. Information on potential sensitivities is needed to identify tree species that require consideration, inform changes to current silvicultural practices and prioritize management actions. A trait-based approach was used to overcome some of the challenges involved in assessing sensitivity, providing a common framework to facilitate data integration and species comparisons. Focusing on 26 abundant tree species from eastern Canada, we developed a series of trait-based indices that capture a species’ ability to cope with three key climate change stressors—increased drought events, shifts in climatically suitable habitat, increased fire intensity and frequency. Ten indices were developed by breaking down species’ response to a stressor into its strategies, mechanisms and traits. Species-specific sensitivities varied across climate stressors but also among the various ways a species can cope with a given stressor. Of the 26 species assessed, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Abies balsamea (L.) Mill are classified as the most sensitive species across all indices while Acer rubrum L. and Populus spp. are the least sensitive. Information was found for 95% of the trait-species combinations but the quality of available data varies between indices and species. Notably, some traits related to individual-level sensitivity to drought were poorly documented as well as deciduous species found within the temperate biome. We also discuss how our indices compare with other published indices, using drought sensitivity as an example. Finally, we discuss how the information captured by these indices can be used to inform vulnerability assessments and the development of adaptation measures for species with different management requirements under climate change.

scholarly journals Predicted impact of climate change on the distribution of the Critically Endangered golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca) in Madagascar

2022 ◽  
pp. 5-13
Author(s):  
Wayne M. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Forest Patches ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Population Distributions ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on Malagasy amphibians remains poorly understood. Equally, deforestation, fragmentation, and lack of connectivity between forest patches may leave vulnerable species isolated in habitat that no longer suits their environmental or biological requirements. We assess the predicted impact of climate change by 2085 on the potential distribution of a Critically Endangered frog species, the golden mantella (Mantella aurantiaca), that is confined to a small area of the central rainforest of Madagascar. We identify potential population distributions and climatically stable areas. Results suggest a potential south-eastwardly shift away from the current range and a decrease in suitable habitat from 2110 km2 under current climate to between 112 km2 – 138 km2 by the year 2085 – less than 7 % of currently available suitable habitat. Results also indicate that the amount of golden mantella habitat falling within protected areas decreases by 86 % over the same period. We recommend research to ascertain future viability and the feasibility of expanding protection to newly identified potential sites. This information can then be used in future conservation actions such as habitat restoration, translocations, re introductions or the siting of further wildlife corridors or protected areas.

scholarly journals Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1107-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha M. Vogel ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Extremes

Abstract. The frequency and intensity of climate extremes is expected to increase in many regions due to anthropogenic climate change. In central Europe extreme temperatures are projected to change more strongly than global mean temperatures, and soil moisture–temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to this regional amplification. Because of their strong societal, ecological and economic impacts, robust projections of temperature extremes are needed. Unfortunately, in current model projections, temperature extremes in central Europe are prone to large uncertainties. In order to understand and potentially reduce the uncertainties of extreme temperature projections in Europe, we analyze global climate models from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble for the business-as-usual high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We find a divergent behavior in long-term projections of summer precipitation until the end of the 21st century, resulting in a trimodal distribution of precipitation (wet, dry and very dry). All model groups show distinct characteristics for the summer latent heat flux, top soil moisture and temperatures on the hottest day of the year (TXx), whereas for net radiation and large-scale circulation no clear trimodal behavior is detectable. This suggests that different land–atmosphere coupling strengths may be able to explain the uncertainties in temperature extremes. Constraining the full model ensemble with observed present-day correlations between summer precipitation and TXx excludes most of the very dry and dry models. In particular, the very dry models tend to overestimate the negative coupling between precipitation and TXx, resulting in a warming that is too strong. This is particularly relevant for global warming levels above 2 ∘C. For the first time, this analysis allows for the substantial reduction of uncertainties in the projected changes of TXx in global climate models. Our results suggest that long-term temperature changes in TXx in central Europe are about 20 % lower than those projected by the multi-model median of the full ensemble. In addition, mean summer precipitation is found to be more likely to stay close to present-day levels. These results are highly relevant for improving estimates of regional climate-change impacts including heat stress, water supply and crop failure for central Europe.

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