scholarly journals Assessing Risk and Prioritizing Safety Interventions in Human Settlements Affected by Large Wildfires

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 859 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Oliveira ◽  
Ana Gonçalves ◽  
Akli Benali ◽  
Ana Sá ◽  
José Luís Zêzere ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Management ◽  
Hierarchical Cluster ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Coping Capacity ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Emergency Actions ◽  
Risk Dimension

The large wildfires of June 2017 disturbed many communities in central Portugal. The civil parish of Alvares was severely affected, with about 60% of its area burnt. Assessing the risk of large wildfires affecting local communities is becoming increasingly important, to reduce potential losses in the future. In this study, we assessed wildfire risk for the 36 villages of Alvares parish, by combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis at the settlement scale. Hazard was obtained from fire spread simulations, which integrated exposure together with population and building density within each village. Vulnerability was based on the sociodemographic characteristics of the population, ranked with a hierarchical cluster analysis. Coping capacity was also integrated, considering the distance of each village to the fire station and the time needed for residents to reach a shelter. We simulated 12 different land management scenarios, regarding the implementation of a fuel-break network and the level of forest management activities. The potential effects of each scenario in the exposure and risk levels of the settlements were evaluated. The results show that, for a business-as-usual scenario, 36% of the villages are at high or very high risk of wildfires. Examining each risk component, 28% of the villages are highly exposed, 44% are highly vulnerable, and 22% do not have a potential shelter on-site, calling for different intervention strategies in each specific risk dimension. All the land management scenarios, even if designed for other purposes than the protection of settlements, could decrease the proportion of highly exposed villages at different levels, up to a maximum of 61%. These findings can contribute to adjust prevention and mitigation strategies to the risk levels and the characteristics of the population and the territory, and to prioritize the protection and emergency actions at the local scale.

scholarly journals A risk control framework for safe manufacturing workstations in view of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 327 ◽  
pp. 03007
Author(s):  
Ebly Sanchez ◽  
Knut Åkesson
Keyword(s):  
Problem Solving ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Industrial Plants ◽  
Engineering Controls ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Control Framework

The manufacturing industry resumes operations after the COVID-19 pandemic supported by return-to-work guidelines, which are mostly personal protection measures for the workers and employees. In this paper, we propose a framework for assessing risk at the workstation level by linking the risk levels to possible mitigation strategies that can be implemented using standard operating procedures (SOP), 5S and problem-solving. Within industrial plants, operators work in close contact with coworkers and supervisors, and they are also sharing tools and machines. It is therefore, essential to develop strategies that reduce the operator’s exposure to viruses in the workplace. The purpose of this work is that when implemented, the risk assessment model and specifically how SOP, 5S and problem solving can be used to implement administrative and engineering controls resulting in a safe workplace and increasing level of confidence for the operators working within the plant.

A neural network approach for retailer risk assessment in the aftermarket industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1631-1647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirin Rezaei ◽  
Sajjad Shokouhyar ◽  
Mostafa Zandieh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Management Process

Purpose Given the competitive environment and complicated relationships in supply chains in the modern era, it is important to take into account internal and external risks. In addition, proper methods must be designed to evaluate these risks correctly. The purpose of this paper is to provide a suitable map based on the artificial neural network technique to assess and classify the risk levels of retailers who have interconnected rules in the downstream of the supply chain. Design/methodology/approach In this research, a model for risk assessment with a hexagonal grid and 2D self-organizing map was applied. Findings According to the results, the model used in the study can provide a basis for classification of retailers based on the specified risk levels defined by the experts and risk managers of the company. Also with the model’s visual output, managers can have a better understanding of the distribution of the risk level of retailers. Practical implications The proposed methodology can be adopted by managers to assess the risk of members involved in the supply chain, helping them to formulate the risk mitigation strategies based on the risk levels. Originality/value As a part of the risk management process, organizations can use this developed method to reduce the existing risks imposed by the members or customers on the company.

scholarly journals Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Meza ◽  
Stefan Siebert ◽  
Petra Döll ◽  
Jürgen Kusche ◽  
Claudia Herbert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agricultural Systems ◽  
Coping Capacity ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities, and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rain-fed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a social-ecological systems perspective, using social-ecological susceptibility and lack of coping capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems displays heterogeneous pattern at the global level with higher risk for southeastern Europe, as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

scholarly journals Estimation of potential soil erosion in the Prosecco DOCG area (NE Italy), toward a soil footprint of bottled sparkling wine production in different land-management scenarios

PLoS ONE ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. e0210922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore E. Pappalardo ◽  
Lorenzo Gislimberti ◽  
Francesco Ferrarese ◽  
Massimo De Marchi ◽  
Paolo Mozzi
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Sparkling Wine ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Ne Italy

The future of soil biochemistry and services in the UK under plausible climate, land use and land management scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Yumashev ◽  
Victoria Janes-Bassett ◽  
Jess Davies
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Grassland Restoration ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Nitrogen Emissions ◽  
Soil Biochemistry ◽  
The Uk

<p>In this study, we explore plausible future states of soil organic matter, biomass, food production and soil greenhouse gas emissions across the UK under a range of climate, land use and land management scenarios. We use state-of-the-art soil biochemistry model, N14CP-Ag, combined with UKCP18 climate scenarios and ASSET land cover change and crop scenarios mapped onto a UK-wide grid with around 100,000 land parcels. Historic runs cover the period from the start of the Holocene interglacial (-12 kyr BP) to 2015; scenarios run from 2016 out to 2100. The results show variations of soil organic carbon (SOC) of around 10% between 2016 and 2100 relative to the simulated starting value of 1.4 Gton in 2015, with reductions of up to 7% under arable expansion scenarios and increases of up to 3% under grassland restoration scenarios. The effect of changing cropping patterns on UK-wide SOC is comparatively small. As climate scenarios move from lower to higher global emissions, the SOC reductions under arable expansion become more pronounced, while the SOC increases under grassland restoration diminish and eventually turn into losses. UK-wide crop yields show resilience to climate change and are maximised for the arable expansion scenario with protected sites of special scientific interest. Soil CO2 and nitrogen emissions get progressively higher in warmer climates. The results of this study are expected to contribute to a future UK agricultural policy aimed at rewarding farmers for sustainable land management practices.</p>

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis of the Fine-Scale Heat Wave Risk along the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 12153
Author(s):  
Xin Dai ◽  
Qingsheng Liu ◽  
Chong Huang ◽  
He Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Hazard Exposure

As a highly important meteorological hazard, heat waves notably impact human health and socioeconomics, and accurate heat wave risk identification and assessment are effective ways to address this issue. The current spatial scale of heat wave risk assessment is relatively coarse, hardly meeting fine-scale heat wave risk assessment requirements. Therefore, based on multi-source fine-scale remote sensing data and socioeconomic data, this paper evaluates the heat wave risk along the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, obtains the spatial distribution of heat wave risk in 2005, 2014 and 2019, and analyzes spatiotemporal risk variations over the past 15 years. The results show that most high-risk areas were affected by high-temperature hazards. Over time, the hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk levels increased by 25.82%, 3.31%, 14.82% and 6.97%, respectively, from 2005–2019. Spatially, the higher risk in the northwest is mainly distributed in Jakarta. Additionally, a comparative analysis was conducted on the risk results, and the results showed that the 100-m scale showed more spatial differences than the kilometer scale. The research results in this paper can provide scientific advice on heat wave risk prevention considering the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway construction and regional economic and social development.

scholarly journals Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management

AMBIO ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (11) ◽  
pp. 1710-1721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jelena Rakovic ◽  
Martyn N. Futter ◽  
Katarina Kyllmar ◽  
Katri Rankinen ◽  
Marc I. Stutter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Stakeholder Dialogue ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Catchment Modelling ◽  
Forestry Management ◽  
Narrative Storylines ◽  
Future Narratives ◽  
Management Changes ◽  
Further Development

Abstract Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices.

scholarly journals Coronavirus Disease 2019: Community Risk Mitigation Strategies in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 73-87
Author(s):  
Benran Jiang ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Ting Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Targeted Prevention ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
The Public ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Community Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation Strategies ◽  
And Control

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a global health emergency. In the absence of effective pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine, long-term community risk mitigation strategies are crucial to prevent and control the resurgence of the epidemic in China. A multi-level, region-specific and dynamic approach has been applied to ensure early detection, quick response, effective contact tracing and management, and targeted prevention and control on the basis of risk levels. Science popularization of the public health measures in the community is also an important strategy to curb the risk of pandemic.

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