scholarly journals Weather, Risk, and Resource Orders on Large Wildland Fires in the Western US

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jude Bayham ◽  
Erin J. Belval ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson ◽  
Christopher Dunn ◽  
Crystal S. Stonesifer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Management Teams ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Additional Risk Factor ◽  
Fire Growth ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Western Us

Research Highlights: Our results suggest that weather is a primary driver of resource orders over the course of extended attack efforts on large fires. Incident Management Teams (IMTs) synthesize information about weather, fuels, and order resources based on expected fire growth rather than simply reacting to observed fire growth. Background and Objectives: Weather conditions are a well-known determinant of fire behavior and are likely to become more erratic under climate change. Yet, there is little empirical evidence demonstrating how IMTs respond to observed or expected weather conditions. An understanding of weather-driven resource ordering patterns may aid in resource prepositioning as well as forecasting suppression costs. Our primary objective is to understand how changing weather conditions influence resource ordering patterns. Our secondary objective is to test how an additional risk factor, evacuation, as well as a constructed risk metric combining fire growth and evacuation, influences resource ordering. Materials and Methods: We compile a novel dataset on over 1100 wildfires in the western US from 2007–2013, integrating data on resource requests, detailed weather conditions, fuel and landscape characteristics, values at risk, fire behavior, and IMT expectations about future fire behavior and values at risk. We develop a two-step regression framework to investigate the extent to which IMTs respond to realized or expected weather-driven fire behavior and risks. Results: We find that IMTs’ expectations about future fire growth are influenced by observed weather and that these expectations influence resource ordering patterns. IMTs order nearly twice as many resources when weather conditions are expected to drive growth events in the near future. However, we find little evidence that our other risk metrics influence resource ordering behavior (all else being equal). Conclusion: Our analysis shows that incident management teams are generally forward-looking and respond to expected rather than recently observed weather-driven fire behavior. These results may have important implications for forecasting resource needs and costs in a changing climate.

The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Hand ◽  
Hari Katuwal ◽  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Resource Use ◽  
Management Teams ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Detailed Data ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Wildfire Suppression ◽  
Resource Capacity

Despite large commitments of personnel and equipment to wildfire suppression, relatively little is known about the factors that affect how many resources are ordered and assigned to wildfire incidents and the variation in resources across incident management teams (IMTs). Using detailed data on suppression resource assignments for IMTs managing the highest complexity wildfire incidents (Type 1 and Type 2), this paper examines daily suppression resource use and estimates the variation in resource use between IMTs. Results suggest that after controlling for fire and landscape characteristics, and for higher average resource use on fires in California, differences between IMTs account for ~14% of variation in resource use. Of the 89 IMTs that managed fires from 2007 to 2011, 17 teams exhibited daily resource capacity that was significantly higher than resource use for the median team.

Factors affecting fire suppression costs as identified by incident management teams

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janie Canton-Thompson ◽  
Brooke Thompson ◽  
Krista Gebert ◽  
David Calkin ◽  
Geoff Donovan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Management Teams ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Factors Affecting

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Elecsys Syphilis Immunoassay for Detection of Syphilis in Populations at Risk of Disease in the US and Argentina

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H Christenson ◽  
Marvin Lessig ◽  
Gabrielle Miles ◽  
Silke Luebcke ◽  
Cheryl Stillions ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Treponema Pallidum ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Screening Assay ◽  
Syphilis Infection ◽  
Populations At Risk ◽  
The Us ◽  
Testing Algorithm

Abstract Background The Elecsys® syphilis immunoassay is an automated, qualitative immunoassay that uses a double-antigen sandwich format to detect antibodies to Treponema pallidum in human serum and plasma. We aimed to validate performance of the immunoassay in various populations at risk for syphilis infection in the US and Argentina. Methods Samples were obtained for a number of study cohorts, including participants from routine syphilis testing at high or low risk for syphilis, HIV-positive patients, pregnant women, and patients in various stages of syphilis infection. The primary objective was to validate the Elecsys syphilis immunoassay by comparing it with a composite testing algorithm using US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved tests, including the predicate IMMULITE 2000 syphilis screening assay, the rapid plasma reagin, and the T. pallidum particle agglutination assay. Results Complete algorithm testing was performed on all 2660 collected samples. Acceptable precision was demonstrated in all samples. Comparison of the Elecsys syphilis immunoassay with the final syphilis status for all samples yielded a diagnostic sensitivity of 99.5% (95% CI, 98.21–99.94) and a diagnostic specificity of 99.2% (95% CI, 98.69–99.49). Overall, the lower limit of the 95% CIs for sensitivity and specificity met the expected performance of ≥95%. Conclusion This is the first study that confirms the high sensitivity and specificity of the Elecsys syphilis immunoassay in US and Argentinian cohorts and highlights the assay's usefulness as an alternative to current tests for the diagnosis of syphilis infection in a broad range of participant cohorts.

scholarly journals Rabies in the Northwest U.S. and Canada

1982 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 81-82
Author(s):  
James Steele
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Companion Animals ◽  
The Past ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Preventive Vaccination ◽  
New Vaccines

Rabies is a problem in western US as well as most of the country. The disease has become established in skunks, foxes, raccoons and bats, and is sporadic in all kinds of other mammals. Companion animals, i.e., dogs and cats are successfully protected by immunization - new vaccines can give protection for life, although it is recommended that the vaccine be given annually in areas where rabies is enzootic. There have been few human deaths due to rabies in the past decade due to the improved human treatment and preventive vaccination of persons at risk, ie. veterinarians and their assistants, wildlife wardens and scientists.

scholarly journals The Survival of Pinus ponderosa Saplings Subjected to Increasing Levels of Fire Behavior and Impacts on Post-Fire Growth

Fire ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wade D. Steady ◽  
Raquel Partelli Feltrin ◽  
Daniel M. Johnson ◽  
Aaron M. Sparks ◽  
Crystal A. Kolden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dose Response ◽  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Fire Growth ◽  
Growth Metrics

Improved predictions of tree species mortality and growth metrics following fires are important to assess fire impacts on forest succession, and ultimately forest growth and yield. Recent studies have shown that North American conifers exhibit a ‘toxicological dose-response’ relationship between fire behavior and the resultant mortality or recovery of the trees. Prior studies have not been conclusive due to potential pseudo-replication in the experimental design and time-limited observations. We explored whether dose-response relationships are observed in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) saplings exposed to surface fires of increasing fire behavior (as quantified by Fire Radiative Energy—FRE). We confirmed equivalent dose-response relationships to the prior studies that were focused on other conifer species. The post-fire growth in the saplings that survived the fires decreased with increasing FRE dosages, while the percentage mortality in the sapling dosage groups increased with the amount of FRE applied. Furthermore, as with lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), a low FRE dosage could be applied that did not yield mortality in any of the replicates (r = 10). These results suggest that land management agencies could use planned burns to reduce fire hazard while still maintaining a crop of young saplings. Incorporation of these results into earth-system models and growth and yield models could help reduce uncertainties associated with the impacts of fire on timber growth, forest resilience, carbon dynamics, and ecosystem economics.

BEHAVIOR-BASED SAFETY PROCESSES IN ARCTIC OIL SPILL RESPONSE

2008 ◽  
Vol 2008 (1) ◽  
pp. 703-705
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Hall ◽  
Walter J. Henry
Keyword(s):  
Oil Spill ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Workplace Safety ◽  
North Slope ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Safety Plan ◽  
The Face ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Behavior Based ◽  
Field Workers

ABSTRACT The Alaska North Slope region is a challenging operating environment. During spill response operations, worksite hazards are magnified and ensuring safety of response personnel becomes more difficult. In the Incident Management Team, the Safety Officer develops a Site Safety Plan to identify hazards and establish guidelines for safe operations. This information is typically communicated to the field workers when they check-in at the Staging Area or other assigned location. The Site Safety Plan alone, however, fails to address specific behaviors of the personnel that lead to unsafe activities. Behavior-Based Safety Processes fill in this missing piece. The PIRATE Process is an example of behavior-based safety at work. PIRATE - Personal Involvement Reduces Accidents to Everyone - is a fundamental part of the safety culture in the Greater Prudhoe Bay operating area. The March 2006 Gathering Center 2 (GC-2) Transit Line oil spill response presented significant challenges to all involved: extreme weather conditions, congested work areas, spilled oil on frozen lake and tundra environments, and complex field operations competing for personnel and resources. Daily involvement with PIRATE (and similar North Slope Behavior-Based Safety Processes) has made the workforce acutely aware of each individuar'S role in workplace safety, enhancing the overall safety performance of the organization. This poster shows some of the difficulties of a complex arctic oil spill response, and the application of Behavior-Based Safety Processes to enable safe and efficient operations in the face of these challenges.

OIL SPILL PREPAREDNESS ASSURANCE IN A POST MACONDO WORLD

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-54
Author(s):  
Martin Cramer ◽  
Geeva Varghese
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Open Communication ◽  
Assurance Process

ABSTRACT The increased public awareness of oil spills and their impacts following the 2010 Macondo oil spill incident along with the changing global landscape of regulatory requirements and stakeholder expectations present numerous challenges to operators. Many of these challenges, as well as incorporation of lessons learned from Macondo, can be addressed through robust preparedness. Oil spill preparedness programs generally include a combination of response plans, incident management and response teams, response equipment and personnel (resources), training and exercises. However, what constitutes a robust preparedness program is often open to interpretation. While acknowledging the availability of a few preparedness assessment/audit tools, such as RETOS, it was felt a fit for purpose assurance program that facilitated open communication, free exchange of ideas and sharing of best practices would result in a greater overall improvement to the company’s global level of preparedness. Consequently, ConocoPhillips retained Oil Spill Response Ltd. (OSRL) to assist in developing a process and methodology for evaluating ConocoPhillips’ existing oil spill preparedness programs. The evaluations were conducted at nine business units (BUs) in various countries whose operations ranged from deepwater exploration and production to onshore production to tanker operations. The main objective of this project was to achieve a high and consistent level of global preparedness through the identification of potential gaps in each BU’s preparedness program and implementation of associated improvement plans. The preparedness assurance process consisted of several components including:Detailed review of the oil spill/emergency response plans to evaluate contents and identify improvement opportunities and best practices.Evaluation of each BU’s Incident Management and Emergency Response Team size, structure, competency and lines of communication and coordinationEvaluation and validation of training and exercise programsEvaluation of Tiers 1, 2 and 3 response resource availability including dispersant stockpiles The results of the evaluations were shared with the BU emergency response leads and management and an improvement plan developed to address any identified gaps. Upon completion of the program, a report was prepared summarizing the preparedness evaluation results for each BU, highlighting best practices identified during the evaluations and providing a general assessment of what “good” looks like. This report was then shared with all BUs to, along with the individual improvement plans, enhance consistency and the level of spill preparedness across the company. The primary objective of this paper is to explain the assurance process that was developed, share key lessons learned during the implementation and provide a summary of the general findings such that it can provide a blue-print for use by other companies to inform the development of similar oil spill preparedness assurance programs.

Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape-level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (9) ◽  
pp. 1751-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason J. Moghaddas ◽  
Brandon M. Collins ◽  
Kurt Menning ◽  
Emily E.Y. Moghaddas ◽  
Scott L. Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Pre Treatment ◽  
Landscape Level

Across the western United States, decades of fire exclusion combined with past management history have contributed to the current condition of extensive areas of high-density, shade-tolerant coniferous stands that are increasingly prone to high-severity fires. Here, we report the modeled effects of constructed defensible fuel profile zones and group selection treatments on crown fire potential, flame length, and conditional burn probabilities across 11 land allocation types for an 18 600 ha study area within the northern Sierra Nevada, California. Fire modeling was completed using FlamMap and FARSITE based on landscape files developed with high-resolution aerial (IKONOS) imagery, ground-based plot data, and integrated data from ARCFUELS and the Forest Vegetation Simulator. Under modeled 97th percentile weather conditions, average conditional burn probability was reduced between pre- and post-treatment landscapes. A more detailed simulation of a hypothetical fire burning under fairly severe fire weather, or “problem fire”, revealed a 39% reduction in final fire size for the treated landscape relative to the pre-treatment condition. To modify fire behavior at a landscape level, a combination of fuel treatment strategies that address topographic location, land use allocations, vegetation types, and fire regimes is needed.

scholarly journals Predicting aquatic invasion in Adirondack lakes: a spatial analysis of lake and landscape characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ross Shaker ◽  
Artur D. Yakubov ◽  
Stephanie M. Nick ◽  
Erin Vennie-Vollrath ◽  
Timothy J. Ehlinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Dreissena Polymorpha ◽  
Myriophyllum Spicatum ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Bythotrephes Longimanus ◽  
Potamogeton Crispus ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Aquatic Invasion ◽  
Adirondack Lakes

Invasive species continue to pose major challenges for managing coupled human-environmental systems. Predictive tools are essential to maximize invasion monitoring and conservation efforts in regions reliant on abundant freshwater resources to sustain economic welfare, social equity, and ecological services. Past studies have revealed biotic and abiotic heterogeneity, along with human activity, can account for much of the spatial variability of aquatic invaders; however, improvements remain. This study was created to (1) examine the distribution of aquatic invasive species richness (AISR) across 126 lakes in the Adirondack Region of New York; (2) develop and compare global and local models between lake and landscape characteristics and AISR; and (3) use geographically weighted regression (GWR) to evaluate non-stationarity of local relationships, and assess its use for prioritizing lakes at risk to invasion. The evaluation index, AISR, was calculated by summing the following potential aquatic invaders for each lake: Asian Clam (Corbicula fluminea), Brittle Naiad (Najas minor), Curly-leaf Pondweed (Potamogeton crispus), Eurasian Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum), European Frog-bit (Hydrocharis morsus-ranae), Fanwort (Cabomba caroliniana), Spiny Waterflea (Bythotrephes longimanus), Variable-leaf Milfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum Water Chestnut (Trapa natans), Yellow Floating Heart (Nymphoides peltata), and Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha). The Getis-Ord Gi_ statistic displayed significant spatial hot and cold spots of AISR across Adirondack lakes. Spearman’s rank (q) correlation coefficient test (rs) revealed urban land cover composition, lake elevation, relative patch richness, and abundance of game fish were the strongest predictors of aquatic invasion. Five multiple regression global Poisson and GWR models were made, with GWR fitting AISR very well (R2 = 76–83%). Local pseudo-t-statistics of key explanatory variables were mapped and related to AISR, confirming the importance of GWR for understanding spatial relationships of invasion. The top 20 lakes at risk to future invasion were identified and ranked by summing the five GWR predictive estimates. The results inform that inexpensive and publicly accessible lake and landscape data, typically available from digital repositories within local environmental agencies, can be used to develop predictions of aquatic invasion with remarkable agreement. Ultimately, this transferable modeling approach can improve monitoring and management strategies for slowing the spread of invading species.

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