scholarly journals Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches

Encyclopedia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 689-709
Author(s):  
Johann Fuchs ◽  
Doris Söhnlein ◽  
Patrizio Vanella
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Permanent Change ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Usual Residence ◽  
Size And Structure

Migration is defined as the permanent change in an individual’s usual residence. Forecasting migration is an important requisite for population forecasts or for planning in fields that depend on the future size and structure of the population, such as economics, epidemiology, social insurance, or infrastructure. As migration is the most volatile of all demographic components, its modeling is especially difficult. International migration can be modeled and forecast very differently; users should be familiar with the flaws and strengths of these different approaches.

The Economic Context for Reforming the Safety Net

2019 ◽  
Vol 686 (1) ◽  
pp. 352-368
Author(s):  
Karen Dynan
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Macroeconomic Growth

As we wrestle with the future of our safety net and social insurance programs, it is important to understand not only the features and outcomes associated with individual programs but also the broader economic context. This reflection piece discusses several relevant aspects of the macroeconomy and of economic and financial conditions facing households: rising government debt, slower macroeconomic growth, limited tools to fight future recessions, greater income inequality, and the financial struggles of households. It goes on to draw lessons for how we should reform our system of entitlement programs.

scholarly journals International Migration and Work: Charting an Ethical Approach to the Future

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-133
Author(s):  
Donald Kerwin
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Global Compact ◽  
Future Of Work ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ethical Approach ◽  
The Future

Executive Summary This research was conducted at the request of the International Catholic Migration Commission (ICMC) as part of a two-year special initiative entitled “The Future of Work, Labour After Laudato Sì.” 1 This article explores the future of work, international migration, and the intersection of the two at a time of rapid change, uncertainty, and disruption for migrants, laborers, and their families and communities. It draws on human rights principles, international law, and religious values, particularly from the Catholic tradition, to chart an ethical approach to the governance of these timeless phenomena. What does the future hold? Under one dystopian scenario, the future of work will be characterized by massive job loss due to automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Politicians and business leaders will characterize the resulting human displacement as an unavoidable “disruption” and byproduct of change. Euphemisms, however, will poorly mask the loss of livelihood, self-esteem, and a central marker of identity for countless persons, particularly the poor and vulnerable. Technological advances will decimate families, communities, and entire ways of life. For many, stable work will become a thing of the past, and technology an instrument of marginalization and discrimination. Algorithms will be used to “perpetuate gender bias” ( ILO 2019a , 35), pit workers against each other, and squeeze the maximum productivity from them for the minimum compensation. The “inappropriate use” and “weak governance” of algorithms will lead to “biases, errors and malicious acts” ( Albinson, Krishna, and Chu 2018 ). Large swaths of the world’s citizens will become (at best) the unhappy dependents of states and global elites. The future of migration seems equally daunting. Current trends suggest that the number of international migrants will continue to rise due to job displacement, violence, natural disaster, and states that cannot or will not meet their fundamental responsibilities. If the past is prologue, unscrupulous politicians and media sources will also continue to blame migrants for the economic and cultural displacement of their constituents, xenophobia will increase, and migrants will encounter hostility in host communities. Natives will criticize their governments and institutions for failing to protect their interests and needs, and migrant laborers will be caught in the middle. This article does not minimize the urgency of the challenges presented by migration and work. It documents the unacceptable living, working, and migration conditions of immense numbers of the world’s citizens. It offers, however, a more optimistic vision of the future than the dystopian view, a vision characterized by international cooperation and solidarity. It recognizes the potential of technology “to render labour superfluous, ultimately alienating workers and stunting their development,” but also its potential to “free workers from arduous labour; from dirt, drudgery, danger and deprivation” and “to reduce work-related stress and potential injuries” ( ILO 2019 , 43). It recognizes the way in which fear of displacement can lead to exclusionary nationalism and xenophobia, but also the possibility of unity based on the shared values embedded in the cultures of diverse persons. It recognizes the costs of migration, but also its immense contributions to host communities. The article argues for person-centered systems and policies that promote the freedom, rights, and dignity of workers, migrants, and migrant workers, and that strengthen migrant host communities. It begins by examining the challenges facing low-income and vulnerable migrants who struggle for decent work, are the most likely to lose their jobs, and are “the least equipped to seize new job opportunities” ( ILO 2019 , 18). 2 It then presents an ethical, person-centered vision of migration and work, rooted in human rights principles, international law, and Catholic social teaching. The article also draws on principles articulated in the Global Compact on Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM); the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR); and the Holy See’s Twenty Action Points for the Global Compacts. It ends with a series of recommendations that seek to bring this vision to fruition.

Fiscal Therapy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
William G. Gale
Keyword(s):  
Social Insurance ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Social Needs ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Vital Functions ◽  
New Public ◽  
The Future ◽  
Core Elements ◽  
Federal Debt ◽  
The Government

America faces two distinct but related economic challenges. Steadily rising federal debt—largely fueled by rising healthcare costs and an aging population that will boost spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—will make it harder to grow the nation’s economy, boost living standards, respond to wars or recessions, address social needs, and maintain the US role as a global leader. At the same time, an increasingly fractured society has left many people behind and let critical investments lag, even as overall prosperity has grown. How and when US citizens address these challenges will help determine the future they build for themselves and their children. This book proposes a remedy with three core elements: controlling entitlement spending in ways that preserve and enhance the programs’ anti-poverty and social insurance roles; betting on the future by stipulating major new public investments in human and physical capital; and raising and reforming taxes to pay for government services fairly and efficiently. Together, these changes would control federal borrowing, strengthen the economy, increase opportunity, reduce inequality, and build better lives for current and future generations. There is no need to kill popular programs or starve government. Indeed, a primary goal of fiscal reform is to maintain and enhance the vital functions that government provides. The country needs to act responsibly, pay for the government it wants, and shape that government in ways that serve it best.

A Local Act for Social Insurance in the Eighteenth Century

1952 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-197
Author(s):  
B. Keith-Lucas
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
National Health Service ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Social Security ◽  
National Health ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
National Insurance ◽  
The Future

It may be that historians of the future will regard the present age as distinguished above all things by the system of social security introduced by the series of statutes which included the National Health Service Act, 1946, the National Insurance Act, 1948, and the National Assistance Act, 1948.

Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110610
Author(s):  
Jaakko Reinikainen ◽  
Tommi Härkänen ◽  
Hanna Tolonen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multiple Imputation ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity

Aims: Information on the future development of prevalences of risk factors and health indicators is needed to prepare for the forthcoming burden of disease in the population and to allocate resources properly for prevention. We aim to present how multiple imputation can be used flexibly to project future prevalences. Methods: The proposed approach uses data on repeated cross-sectional surveys from different years. We create future samples with age and sex distributions corresponding to the official national population forecasts. Then, the risk factors are simulated using multiple imputation by chained equations. Finally, the imputations are pooled to obtain the prevalences of interest. Covariates, such as sociodemographic variables as well as their possible interactions and non-linear terms, can be included in the modelling. The future development of these covariates is also projected simultaneously. We apply the procedure to data from five Finnish health examination surveys conducted between 1997 and 2017, and project the prevalences of obesity, smoking and hypertension to 2020 and 2025. Results: The prevalence of obesity is projected to increase to 24% for both men and women in 2025. The prevalences of hypertension and smoking are expected to continue decreasing, and the differences between men and women are projected to remain so that men will have higher prevalences. Conclusions: Simulation of future observations by multiple imputation can be used as a flexible yet relatively easy-to-use projection method.

The future of social insurance: An evolutionary approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 61-88
Author(s):  
Jin Soo Kim ◽  
Hwa Sook Bae ◽  
Won Suk Chung ◽  
Jeongeum Cha ◽  
Sungha Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Social Insurance ◽  
Evolutionary Approach ◽  
The Future
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