scholarly journals Discounting for Energy Transition Policies—Estimation of the Social Discount Rate for Poland

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 741
Author(s):  
Monika Foltyn-Zarychta ◽  
Rafał Buła ◽  
Krystian Pera
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Social Discount Rate ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Substantial Investment ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Future Consumption

The transition of the energy system in Poland has a long time horizon and demands a substantial investment effort supported by proper economic evaluation. It requires a precise Social Discount Rate (SDR) estimation as discounting makes the present value of long-term effects extremely sensitive to the discount rate level. However, Polish policymakers have little information on SDR: the predominant practice applies a priori fixed 5% discount rate, while studies devoted only to Poland are quite rare. To eliminate this research gap, our paper aims at estimating SDR for Poland, applicable in energy transition policies. We derive SDR for three datasets varying in length, twofold: using market rates via Consumption Rate of Interest (CRI) and Social Opportunity Cost (SOC) of capital, and prescriptive Ramsey and Gollier approaches based on Social Welfare Function (SWF). The results indicate that the rates based on CRI and SOC deviate substantially with changing data timeframes and market conditions, while prescriptive methods show much higher time stability. Due to long-term planning horizons for energy policies, we argue for adopting, as SDR in Poland, the longest dataset’s Ramsey-based rate of 4.72% which can be reduced to 4.39% by Gollier’s precautionary term (reflecting the uncertainty over future consumption growth), which are our main findings.

scholarly journals Addressing the Long-term Impact of ML Decisions via Policy Regret

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lindner ◽  
Hoda Heidari ◽  
Andreas Krause
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Sequential Allocation ◽  
Reward Functions ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Exploration Exploitation

Machine Learning (ML) increasingly informs the allocation of opportunities to individuals and communities in areas such as lending, education, employment, and beyond. Such decisions often impact their subjects' future characteristics and capabilities in an a priori unknown fashion. The decision-maker, therefore, faces exploration-exploitation dilemmas akin to those in multi-armed bandits. Following prior work, we model communities as arms. To capture the long-term effects of ML-based allocation decisions, we study a setting in which the reward from each arm evolves every time the decision-maker pulls that arm. We focus on reward functions that are initially increasing in the number of pulls but may become (and remain) decreasing after a certain point. We argue that an acceptable sequential allocation of opportunities must take an arm's potential for growth into account. We capture these considerations through the notion of policy regret, a much stronger notion than the often-studied external regret, and present an algorithm with provably sub-linear policy regret for sufficiently long time horizons. We empirically compare our algorithm with several baselines and find that it consistently outperforms them, in particular for long time horizons.

scholarly journals Discounting Disentangled

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 109-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz A. Drupp ◽  
Mark C. Freeman ◽  
Ben Groom ◽  
Frikk Nesje
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Wealth Effect ◽  
Social Discount Rate ◽  
Economic Values ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ramsey Rule

The economic values of investing in long-term public projects are highly sensitive to the social discount rate (SDR). We surveyed over 200 experts to disentangle disagreement on the risk-free SDR into its component parts, including pure time preference, the wealth effect, and return to capital. We show that the majority of experts do not follow the simple Ramsey Rule, a widely used theoretical discounting framework, when recommending SDRs. Despite disagreement on discounting procedures and point values, we obtain a surprising degree of consensus among experts, with more than three-quarters finding the median risk-free SDR of 2 percent acceptable. (JEL C83, D61, D82, H43, Q58)

scholarly journals Scorpion Envenomation of Lactating Rats Decreases the Seizure Threshold in Offspring

Toxins ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 853
Author(s):  
Marina de Oliveira Rodrigues Barbosa ◽  
Maria Eliza F. do Val de Paulo ◽  
Ana Leonor Abrahão Nencioni
Keyword(s):  
Perinatal Period ◽  
Postnatal Period ◽  
Seizure Threshold ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Crude Venom ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Few Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Convulsive Threshold

Few data are available in the literature describing the long-term effects of envenoming in the perinatal period. In this study, the relationship between envenoming of lactating rats and possible behavioral changes in the mother and in her offspring were investigated. Lactating Wistar rats received a single dose of T. serrulatus crude venom on postnatal days 2 (V2), 10 (V10) or 16 (V16), and had their maternal behavior evaluated. The seizure threshold was evaluated in adulthood offspring. A decrease in maternal care during envenoming was observed in V2 and V10 groups. The retrieval behavior was absent in the V2 group, and a lower seizure threshold in the adult offspring of all groups was observed. During envenoming, mothers stayed away from their offspring for a relatively long time. Maternal deprivation during the early postnatal period is one of the most potent stressors for pups and could be responsible, at least in part, for the decrease in the convulsive threshold of the offspring since stress is pointed to as a risk factor for epileptogenesis. Furthermore, the scorpionic accident generates an intense immune response, and inflammation in neonates increases the susceptibility to seizures in adulthood. Therefore, maternal envenoming during lactation can have adverse effects on offspring in adulthood.

Discounting under Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 67-89
Author(s):  
Maddalena Ferranna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Social Discount Rate ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ramsey Rule ◽  
Climate Damages

The debate on the economics of climate change has focused primarily on the choice of the social discount rate, which plays a key role in determining the desirability of climate policies given the long-term impacts of climate damages. Discounted utilitarianism and the Ramsey Rule dominate the debate on discounting. The chapter examines the appropriateness of the utilitarian framework for evaluating public policies. More specifically, it focuses on the risky dimension of climate change, and on the failure of utilitarianism in expressing both concerns for the distribution of risks across the population and concerns for the occurrence of catastrophic outcomes. The chapter shows how a shift to the prioritarian paradigm is able to capture those types of concerns, and briefly sketches the main implications for the choice of the social discount rate.

scholarly journals Myeloid neoplasms after chemotherapy and PRRT: myth and reality

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. C1-C7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Bodei ◽  
Irvin M Modlin ◽  
Markus Luster ◽  
Flavio Forrer ◽  
Marta Cremonesi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Alkylating Agents ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Peptide Receptor Radionuclide Therapy ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Myeloid Neoplasms ◽  
Target Organs ◽  
Small Cohort ◽  
Well Differentiated ◽  
Definition Of

Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) with 90Y-octreotide or 177Lu-octreotate is an effective treatment for inoperable or metastatic neuroendocrine tumors (NETs), particularly well-differentiated gastroenteropancreatic or bronchopulmonary NETs. PRRT is generally extremely well tolerated, with modest toxicity to target organs, kidney and bone marrow. Nevertheless, a priori concerns regarding long-term effects lead clinicians such as Brieau and coworkers, in this ERC issue, to ascribe to the combination of alkylating agents and PRRT the apparently high occurrence (n=4) of myeloproliferative events (therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (t-MNs)) in a small cohort of 20 progressive, advanced digestive NETs treated with PRRT after chemotherapy. Anecdotal reports of myelotoxic events should be placed in the correct perspective of larger series, where the reported incidence of these events is ~2%, with the aim of promoting a balanced awareness of the issue and unbiased and reasonable overall conclusions. For a comprehensive definition of the issue, we provide an evaluation of the occurrence of t-MN in patients treated with various myelotoxic treatments.

Germany's Energy Transition Under Attack: Is There an Inscrutable German Sonderweg ?

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Gawel ◽  
Sebastian Strunz ◽  
Paul Lehmann
Keyword(s):  
Emissions Trading ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Emissions Trading Scheme ◽  
German Energy Policy ◽  
Trading Scheme

The German energy transition repeatedly faces harsh critiques questioning its economic and environmental merits. This article defends the energy transition and argues that Germany has chosen an economically efficient and particularly forceful approach to securing a sustainable energy supply. Though current expenditures are high, the long-term benefits of transforming the energy system to a renewables-based system are likely to outweigh present investment costs. Furthermore, support policies for renewables are not redundant-as some critics claim-but instead complement other policy instruments, such as the emissions trading scheme. This article also addresses the motives behind the discrediting attacks on the German energy policy regime. Defensive actions by beneficiaries of the former energy market structure are only to be expected, but the attacks from liberal economists are astonishingly fierce.

Comparison of Microbial and Geochemical Conditions of Lignite Coal Spoil and Overburden Areas and their Environmental Impact

2015 ◽  
Vol 1130 ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Sabine Willscher ◽  
Maximilian Schaum ◽  
Josef Goldammer ◽  
Doreen Knippert ◽  
Denise Kühn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohesive Soil ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Geochemical Background ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Microbial Life ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Overburden Material ◽  
Lignite Coal ◽  
Soil Substrates

During the 20th century, Germany belonged to the world’s largest producers of lignite coal. Approaches for remediation of lignite spoil and overburden material were carried out since at least the last 50 years. Today, results of former remediation can be evaluated by their long-term effects. Coal spoil seepage waters can impact billions of m3 of ground water in involved areas for a very long time horizon (eternity impacts). In the last years our working group had studied especially lignite coal spoil sites in the Lusatia (East Germany) with sandy substrates and faster vertical mass transport processes. In new investigations, another coal spoil site in Middle Germany with more cohesive soil substrates and layers of drift clays was studied, and geochemical and microbial parameters were characterized. The investigated site partially had a remediated topsoil layer since 40 years, and since this time agricultural cultivation of different plants (grains, legumes, Pocaceae) was performed. In this paper, data of different microbial populations in the coal spoil substrate and geochemical background data are given, and they are compared with former data of microbial communities in sandy substrates and their impact to the environment. Finally, the success of long-term remediation of such sites, the influence onto microbial life and impact to the environments will be compared and discussed.

scholarly journals Effects of Perennial Intercrops on Oil Palm Agronomic and Yield Traits

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thanet Khomphet ◽  
Theera Eksomtramage ◽  
Jakarat Anothai ◽  
Pilalak Popet
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Plant Height ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Yield Traits ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Randomized Design ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Completely Randomized Design ◽  
Hopea Odorata

Background: Intercropping is wildly practiced in oil palm plantation in Thailand for a long time. However, there are few studies connected to oil palm intercropping. This study evaluated the effects of perennial intercrops on the agronomic and yield traits of oil palm.Methods: The observation used a completely randomized design with eight treatments including oil palm monocropping, oil palm intercropped with Intsia palembanica, Hopea odorata, Swietenia macrophylla, Ternstroemia wallichiana, Azardirachta excelsa, Magnolia champaca and Mesua ferrea. The height and stem perimeter of intercrops were recorded as were the plant height and diameter, number of male and female inflorescences and sex ratio of the oil palms. Those parameters were observed in October 2019, February and June 2020.Result: Oil palm intercropped with A. excelsa produced the highest number of female inflorescences and oil palm intercropped with M. champaca produced the highest sex ratio in October 2019 and February 2020, however, the differences of those parameters were not found in June 2020. There were no significant differences in the diameter, height, the number of male inflorescences throughout the observation. Among the 7 intercrops, M. champaca and A. excelsa produced the highest growth rate of plant height and stem perimeter, respectively. In conclusion, oil palm can be intercropped with perennial plants. However, more research is needed to determine the long-term effects of intercropping in oil palm.

scholarly journals Norepinephrine, olfactory bulb and memory stability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiane Linster ◽  
Maellie Midroit ◽  
Jeremy Forest ◽  
Yohann Thenaisie ◽  
Christina Cho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Olfactory Bulb ◽  
Network Effect ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Concept Model ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Learning Flexibility ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Acute Changes ◽  
Pharmacological Manipulations

AbstractMemory stability is essential for animal survival when environment and behavioral state change over short or long time spans. The stability of a memory can be expressed by its duration, its perseverance when conditions change as well as its specificity to the learned stimulus. Using optogenetic and pharmacological manipulations, we show that stability of an odor-reward association can be modulated by noradrenergic inputs to the first olfactory network, the olfactory bulb. We show that while manipulations of noradrenaline during an odor-reward acquisition have no acute effects, they impact learning flexibility as well as the duration and the specificity of the memory. We use a computational approach to propose a proof of concept model showing that a single, simple network effect of noradrenaline on olfactory bulb dynamics can underlie these seemingly different behavioral effects. Our results show how acute changes in network dynamics can have long term effects that extend beyond the network that was manipulated.

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