scholarly journals Optimization of Electric Energy Sales Strategy Based on Probabilistic Forecasts

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1045
Author(s):  
Joanna Janczura ◽  
Aleksandra Michalak
Keyword(s):  
Electric Energy ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Optimization Scheme ◽  
Sales Strategy ◽  
Price Distribution ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Using Data

In this paper we propose an optimization scheme for a selling strategy of an electricity producer who in advance decides on the share of electricity sold on the day-ahead market. The remaining part is sold on the complementary (intraday/balancing) market. To this end, we use probabilistic forecasts of the future selling price distribution. Next, we find an optimal share of electricity sold on the day-ahead market using one of the three objectives: maximization of the overall profit, minimization of the sellers risk, or maximization of the median of portfolio values. Using data from the Polish day-ahead and balancing markets, we show that the assumed objective is achieved, as compared to the naive strategy of selling the whole produced electricity only on the day-ahead market. However, an increase of the profit is associated with a significant increase of the risk.

Editor’s Pick: Regulatory and Ethical Issues in the New Era of Radiomics and Radiogenomics

EMJ Radiology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Pesapane
Keyword(s):  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Medical Images ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Innovative Technology ◽  
New Era ◽  
Naked Eye ◽  
Disease Characteristics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

Radiomics is a science that investigates a large number of features from medical images using data-characterisation algorithms, with the aim to analyse disease characteristics that are indistinguishable to the naked eye. Radiogenomics attempts to establish and examine the relationship between tumour genomic characteristics and their radiologic appearance. Although there is certainly a lot to learn from these relationships, one could ask the question: what is the practical significance of radiogenomic discoveries? This increasing interest in such applications inevitably raises numerous legal and ethical questions. In an environment such as the technology field, which changes quickly and unpredictably, regulations need to be timely in order to be relevant.  In this paper, issues that must be solved to make the future applications of this innovative technology safe and useful are analysed.

scholarly journals POWER LAWS IN REAL ESTATE PRICES DURING BUBBLE PERIODS

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 61-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
TAKAAKI OHNISHI ◽  
TAKAYUKI MIZUNO ◽  
CHIHIRO SHIMIZU ◽  
TSUTOMU WATANABE
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Power Law ◽  
House Price ◽  
Power Laws ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Price Distribution ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The U.S

How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions.

scholarly journals Methodology Applied for Thickness Selection and Stored Heat Evaluation in Non-producer Geothermal Wells in Order to Its Investment Rescue

2020 ◽  
pp. 91-111
Author(s):  
Alfonso Aragon- Aguilar ◽  
Georgina Izquierdo- Montalvo ◽  
Dominic A. Becerra- Serrato ◽  
Victor M. Monrroy- Mar
Keyword(s):  
Electric Energy ◽  
Geothermal Field ◽  
Geothermal Systems ◽  
Drainage Radius ◽  
Heterogeneous Behavior ◽  
Water Recharge ◽  
Geothermal Wells ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Heat Calculation ◽  
Heat Store

An assessment methodology of stored heat in rock formation surrounding to wellbore in geothermal systems is shown. Due to geothermal systems generally are nested in volcanic rock, it is characteristic its heterogeneous behavior. Proposed methodology starts since zone selection with possibilities of heat store. This methodology is focused to be applied in geothermal reservoirs with tendency to production decline, due to low permeability and unbalance between exploitation and water recharge. Because the high costs of drilling geothermal wells, methodology shown in this work is proposed to be applied in those with production decline or non-producers, in order to rescue its investment. The objective is to select the thickness with heat, evaluate its storage, design the appropriate instrumentation for its recovery, its energy conversion and rescue its investment done. The different designs for energy recovery using non-conventional methods to those, used habitually are reviewed. Each one of the variables for stored heat calculation was determined using technical tools of reservoir engineering. A parametric analysis about variables sensitivity (porosity and drainage radius) for determining thermal energy and corresponding electric energy of analyzed rock volume is done. Practical application of this methodology was carried out using data of one of wells of Los Humeros Mexican geothermal field.

scholarly journals Technology Predicting the Future using Data Mining Techniques

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 4204-4208
Keyword(s):  
Information Society ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Security Technology ◽  
Great Chance ◽  
Technology Service ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Society ◽  
Using Data

The technologies of the future society can make a super connective society where everything is connected and organically interacted, and it promotes “Hyper-Connected”, “Hyper-Intelligent”, "Hyper-Real" as it is possible to become intellectual by techniques such as artificial intelligence and big data analysis. To find out the key triggers by extracting the technologies with these characteristics and identifying what factors and forms are used allows us to grasp changes in the industry due to the rapidly changing domestic environment and the influence of innovation technologies. According to the analysis, the key triggers of major technologies in information society are keywords such as security, technology, service, virtual, and finance which have a great chance to converge with other technologies. The implications of this study are as follows. First, key technologies of domestic information society were identified based on a huge amount of reliable news data. In addition, Network Analysis based on Data, which has increased the frequency of studies all over the field including computer science, sociology and business administration, is applied to predicting the future. Based on this, the methodology has been proposed that can be used to predict the pattern of technology development or notable technologies in the future. This study wasn’t conducted only on one detailed technology, but comprehensively on major technologies extracted in the era of 4th Industrial Revolution and presents Black Swan Prediction to enhance competitiveness of domestic industry in related technologies and create new added value.

scholarly journals The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Soubeyrand ◽  
M. Ribaud ◽  
V. Baudrot ◽  
D. Allard ◽  
D. Pommeret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Mixture Model ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
Second Line ◽  
University Center ◽  
The Future ◽  
Population Structures ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
Using Data

AbstractObjectiveCountries presently apply different strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak. Differences in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various trajectories in terms of mortality at country scale. Our objective in this manuscript is to disentangle the future of second-line European countries (i.e. countries that present, today, a moderate death rate) with respect to the current COVID-19 wave.MethodWe propose a data-driven approach, grounded on a mixture model, to forecast the dynamics of the number of deaths from COVID-19 in a given focal country using data from countries that are ahead in time in terms of COVID-19-induced mortality. In this approach, the mortality curves of ahead-in-time countries are used to build predictors, which are then used as the components of the mixture model. This approach was applied to eight second-line European countries (Austria, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Sweden), using Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom as well as the Hubei province in China to build predictors. For this analysis, we used data pooled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.ResultsIn general, the second-line European countries tend to follow relatively mild mortality curves (typically, those of Switzerland and Hubei) rather than fast and severe ones (typically, those of Spain, Italy, Belgium, France and the United Kingdom). From a methodological viewpoint, the performance of our forecasting approach is about 80% up to 8 days in the future, as soon as the focal country has accumulated at least two hundreds of deaths.DiscussionOur results suggest that the continuation of the current COVID-19 wave across Europe will likely be mitigated, and not as strong as it was in most of the front-line countries first impacted by the wave.

scholarly journals The Meteorological Development Laboratory’s Aviation Weather Prediction System

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1027-1051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judy E. Ghirardelli ◽  
Bob Glahn
Keyword(s):  
Communication Networks ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Virgin Islands ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ceiling Height ◽  
Gfs Model ◽  
Model Output Statistics ◽  
Aviation Weather

Abstract The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has developed and implemented an aviation weather prediction system that runs each hour and produces forecast guidance for each hour into the future out to 25 h covering the major forecast period of the National Weather Service (NWS) Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. The Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) consists of analyses of observations, simple advective models, and a statistical component that updates the longer-range MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. LAMP, being an update to GFS MOS, is shown to be an improvement over it, as well as improving over persistence. LAMP produces probabilistic forecasts for the aviation weather elements of ceiling height, sky cover, visibility, obstruction to vision, precipitation occurrence and type, and thunderstorms. Best-category forecasts are derived from these probabilities and their associated thresholds. The LAMP guidance of sensible weather is available for 1591 stations in the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Probabilistic guidance of thunderstorms is also available on a grid. The LAMP guidance is available to the entire weather enterprise via NWS communication networks and the World Wide Web. In the future, all station guidance will be gridded and be made available in a form compatible with the NWS’s National Digital Forecast Database.

scholarly journals The Future of Hyperspectral Imaging

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Selci
Keyword(s):  
Hyperspectral Imaging ◽  
Age Determination ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Potato Tubers ◽  
Dynamic Scenes ◽  
New Methods ◽  
The Future ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Stability

The Special Issue on hyperspectral imaging (HSI), entitled “The Future of Hyperspectral Imaging”, has published 12 papers. Nine papers are related to specific current research and three more are review contributions: In both cases, the request is to propose those methods or instruments so as to show the future trends of HSI. Some contributions also update specific methodological or mathematical tools. In particular, the review papers address deep learning methods for HSI analysis, while HSI data compression is reviewed by using liquid crystals spectral multiplexing as well as DMD-based Raman spectroscopy. Specific topics explored by using data obtained by HSI include alert on the sprouting of potato tubers, the investigation on the stability of painting samples, the prediction of healing diabetic foot ulcers, and age determination of blood-stained fingerprints. Papers showing advances on more general topics include video approach for HSI dynamic scenes, localization of plant diseases, new methods for the lossless compression of HSI data, the fusing of multiple multiband images, and mixed modes of laser HSI imaging for sorting and quality controls.

Math Anxiety, Math Self-Concept, and Math Self-Efficacy in Adult Learners Compared to Traditional Undergraduate Students

2014 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 306-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly M. Jameson ◽  
Brooke R. Fusco
Keyword(s):  
Adult Education ◽  
Adult Learners ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Math Anxiety ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Self Concept ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Using Data

Adult learners comprise a significant portion of current undergraduate populations, and projections indicate steady or growing numbers of adult learners in the future. Previous research has suggested that adult learners possess lower self-confidence than and face barriers not experienced by traditional undergraduate students. These constructs have not been explored specifically within mathematics, however, which was the purpose of the current study. Using data collected from 226 undergraduate students (60 traditional students, 166 adult learners), the current research found that adult learners self-report lower levels of math self-efficacy and higher levels of math anxiety than their traditional peers. Implications for adult education are suggested.

A NEW MEASUREMENT OF DIRECT CP VIOLATION IN K→ππ DECAYS BY THE NA48 EXPERIMENT AT CERN

2001 ◽  
Vol 16 (supp01b) ◽  
pp. 665-668
Author(s):  
◽  
H. FOX
Keyword(s):  
Cp Violation ◽  
Previous Measurement ◽  
The Future ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Na48 Collaboration

A new measurement of ℛe(∊′/∊) by the NA48 collaboration using data collected in 1998 is presented. The preliminary result is ℛe(∊'/∊) =(12.2±2.9 ( stat )±4.0 ( sys )) ×10-4. The combination with the previous measurement using the 1997 data yields ℛe(∊′/∊)=(14.0±4.3)×10-4. This result confirms the existence of direct CP violation. The uncertainty on this measurement will be improved in the future.

The Future Renewable Electric Energy Delivery and Management (FREEDM) System: The Energy Internet

2011 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Q Huang ◽  
M L Crow ◽  
G T Heydt ◽  
J P Zheng ◽  
S J Dale
Keyword(s):  
Electric Energy ◽  
Energy Internet ◽  
Energy Delivery ◽  
The Future
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document