scholarly journals Coupled Criticality Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Zahra Koohi Lai ◽  
Ali Namaki ◽  
Ali Hosseiny ◽  
Gholamreza Jafari ◽  
Marcel Ausloos
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Critical Periods ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Multifractal Random Walk ◽  
One Year ◽  
Different Response ◽  
Criticality Analysis

In this paper, we focus on the critical periods in the economy that are characterized by unusual and large fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators, like those measuring inflation and unemployment. We analyze U.S. data for 70 years from 1948 until 2018. To capture their fluctuation essence, we concentrate on the non-Gaussianity of their distributions. We investigate how the non-Gaussianity of these variables affects the coupling structure of them. We distinguish “regular” from “rare” events, in calculating the correlation coefficient, emphasizing that both cases might lead to a different response of the economy. Through the “multifractal random wall” model, one can see that the non-Gaussianity depends on time scales. The non-Gaussianity of unemployment is noticeable only for periods shorter than one year; for longer periods, the fluctuation distribution tends to a Gaussian behavior. In contrast, the non-Gaussianities of inflation fluctuations persist for all time scales. We observe through the “bivariate multifractal random walk” that despite the inflation features, the non-Gaussianity of the coupled structure is finite for scales less than one year, drops for periods larger than one year, and becomes small for scales greater than two years. This means that the footprint of the monetary policies intentionally influencing the inflation and unemployment couple is observed only for time horizons smaller than two years. Finally, to improve some understanding of the effect of rare events, we calculate high moments of the variables’ increments for various q orders and various time scales. The results show that coupling with high moments sharply increases during crises.

Periodic alterations of the hydrological exchange in hyporheic sediments: colmation, hyporheic fauna and abiotic parameters in a second order stream during one year 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heide Stein ◽  
Hans Jürgen Hahn
Keyword(s):  
Hyporheic Zone ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Critical Periods ◽  
Order Stream ◽  
Fine Sediments ◽  
Stream Discharge ◽  
One Year ◽  
Hydrological Exchange

<p>In this study, the temporal variability of the hydrological exchange between stream water (SW) and groundwater (GW), colmation, hyporheic invertebrate fauna, organic matter (OM) and physicochemical parameters were examined for the period of one year. Sampling and measuring were conducted monthly from May 2019 to April 2020 at the Guldenbach river, a second order stream in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. All hyporheic samples were extracted from a depth of 15 cm below stream bottom. Colmation was measured quantitatively in the same depth.</p><p>Following the biotic and abiotic patterns found, three temporal stages of different hydrological conditions can be described:</p><ul><li>1) Strong floods, in February and March 2020 caused hydromorphological alterations of the river bed, leading to a decolmation of the hyporheic zone, a wash out of OM and hyporheic fauna. Due to high GW tables the vertical hydrological gradient (VHG) was positive indicating upwelling GW.</li> <li>2) In the months of Mai to August 2019 and April 2020, precipitation and stream discharge were lowest. Predominantly exfiltrating conditions were observed, while the amount of fine sediments (clay and silt) increased as well as colmation. High densities of hyporheic fauna, dominated by fine sediment dwelling taxa, were assessed.</li> <li>3) From September 2019 to January 2020 stream discharge was low. The VHG became increasingly negative, indicating downwelling SW. In accordance, colmation increased continuously, while densities of hyporheic invertebrates decreased and sediment dwellers became more dominant.</li> </ul><p>Precipitation, discharge events and GW table were found to be the driving factors for the annual dynamics of the hydrological exchange as well as for colmation, fauna and hydrochemistry. Electric conductivity seems a suitable indicator for the origin of water with high values in months of low precipitation and lower values after extensive precipitation events, respectively. Hyporheic fauna displayed a significant seasonality and the community structure was correlated with colmation and changes in the VHG.</p><p>This pronounced seasonality seems to be typical of many streams and should be considered for the monitoring of sediments and hyporheic habitats: Seasons with lower stream discharge are probably the most critical periods for sediment conditions.</p><p>We assume that the basic patterns of the dynamics observed basically reflect the natural situation in the catchment. However, the strength of surface run-off and the amount of fine sediments are mainly the result of anthropogenic activities and land use in the catchment.</p><p>These findings underline the significance of dynamical processes for the assessment and implementation of the Water Framework Directive.</p>

International Monetary Fund

1961 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 710-712
Keyword(s):  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Capital Movements ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

On June 7, 1961, it was announced that the International Monetary Fund had entered into a stand-by arrangement authorizing the government of Ecuador to draw up to $10 million in currencies held by the Fund during the following twelve months. Then, on July 19 the Fund announced that it had concurred in the establishment of a new par value for Ecuador's currency, accompanied by a simplification of the country's exchange system. The par value as of that date was changed from 15 to 18 sucres per United States dollar, and Ecuador discontinued most of its multiple rate practices. Under the new system at least 90 percent of all trade and trade-connected transactions, including the export of such major products as bananas, coffee and cacao, was to be conducted within one percent either side of parity, while a small free market with a fluctuating rate, mainly for nonessential invisible transactions and unregistered capital transactions, was to continue to operate, chiefly as a means of controlling capital movements. During the period under review the Fund also entered into stand-by agreements wkh other Latin American countries. On July 14, 1961, the Fund announced a one-year stand-by arrangement with the government of El Salvador authorizing drawings in an amount equivalent to $11.25 million. The Fund's assistance was designed to help to support the country's reserve position and ensure the continued convertibility of its currency while measures were being adopted to improve El Salvador's internal situation through appropriate fiscal and monetary policies.

scholarly journals Assessment of dispersion parameterizations through wind data measured by three sonic anemometers in a urban canopy

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Mortarini ◽  
E. Ferrero ◽  
R. Richiardone ◽  
S. Falabino ◽  
D. Anfossi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Vertical Component ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Obukhov Length ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Integral Time ◽  
Sonic Anemometers ◽  
One Year ◽  
The City

Abstract. One year of continuous wind and turbulence measurements at three levels (5, 9 and 25 m) on a mast located in the suburb of the city of Turin were collected. Those recorded during April 2007 are analyzed and their main characteristics are presented and discussed. The analysis includes, at each level, mean, standard deviation, Skewness, Kurtosis for the 3-D wind components and sonic temperature. The integral time scales for the 3-D wind components are also computed and friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length are determined as well. In particular, the wind standard deviation profiles as a function of stability are compared to the literature predictions for flat undisturbed terrain. It is found that, while the vertical component agrees reasonably well, the horizontal components deviate from the prescribed values, as expected considering the buildings and other obstacles effects and the high percentage of low-wind conditions. Also the integral time scales, estimated by the autocorrelation functions, are compared to the literature predictions, finding significant differences, again attributed to the low-wind speed occurrences.

scholarly journals The Role Of Turkish Central Bank During And After The 2008-Financial Crises

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Ayhan Guney
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The World ◽  
One Year ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Time Spread

The Global Financial Crises occurred at the end of 2008, and in very short time, spread to all sectors of economy.All countries were badly hit by the crises and the World economies shrank almost $50 trillion, the equivalent of one year of world GDP.During the process, especially the banking sectors of the world economies was smashed, and many banks and financial institutions bankrupted and some others liquidated such as Lehman Brothers. All countries took the drastic fiscal and monetary measures to overcome the global crises. So, this paper focuses on the functions of central banks asking that what the role of central banks to cope with the global crises was, and thus omits the side of fiscal policies implemented by different countries.It especially discusses the role of Turkish Central Bank and its monetary policies during and after the 2008-Global Financial Crises. What was the achievement of the measures taken and the monetary policies implemented by Turkish Central Bank during and after the financial crises?

scholarly journals Variability and Change in Adolescents’ Prosocial Behavior Across Multiple Time Scales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lysanne te Brinke ◽  
Suzanne van de Groep ◽  
Renske van der Cruijsen ◽  
Eveline Crone
Keyword(s):  
Prosocial Behavior ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Perspective Taking ◽  
Prosocial Behaviors ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Late Adolescents ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Affective Processes ◽  
One Year

We examined variability and change in adolescents’ prosocial behaviors directed to peers and friends across four time scales: two-years, one-year, two-monthly, and daily. Data from three longitudinal datasets with a total of 569 adolescents (55.7% girl, Mage = 15.23, SD = 3.90) were included. The overall time-related stability of prosocial behavior across time scales was moderate to excellent. Variability did not differ between early (age 10-15) and late (age 16-21) adolescence. Late adolescents reported higher mean levels and larger two-year increases. Finally, results indicated that prosocial behaviors measured over longer periods (i.e., two-years and one-year) are positively associated with reflective processes (perspective taking), whereas prosocial behaviors measured over shorter periods (i.e., two-monthly) are positively associated with affective processes (empathy).

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Impact of 2008 Financial Crisis on Countries by Income Groups

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Erkan DEMIRBAS
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
High Income ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Weak Growth

<p>The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of the US mortgage crisis on macroeconomic indicators by considering classification of countries by income groups. Using the data of World Development Indicators prepared by World Bank, countries are classified in four groups respectively low-income economies, lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income and high-income economies. For these groups of countries the data of macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, employment, inflation, export, from 2005 to 2015 are examined. Obtained results show that group of high income countries have not just been heavily affected from 2008 crisis, but also facing problem of weak growth and risk of deflation, whereas middle income economies have been affected from declining commod­ity prices. Present conditions are required to initiate proactive fiscal and monetary policies in the world.</p>

Evapotranspiration intensification over unchanged temperate vegetation in the Baltic states is being driven by climate shifts 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Montibeller ◽  
Jaak Jaagus ◽  
Ülo Mander ◽  
Evelyn Uuemaa
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Critical Periods ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Increasing Trends

&lt;p&gt;Shifts in climate driven by anthropogenic land use and land cover change are expected to alter&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;various&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;land&amp;#8211;atmosphere interactions. Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of these processes and plays a fundamental role in the hydrologic cycle. Using gridded reanalysis and remote sensing data, we investigated the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation, temperature, and ET for croplands and forest areas in the Baltic states where these land cover type had not changed from 2000 to 2018. We focused on ET but investigated the spatiotemporal trends for the three variables at monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales during this period to quantify trade-offs among months and seasons. We used the Mann-Kendall test and Sen&amp;#8217;s slope to calculate the trends and rate of change for the three variables. Although precipitation showed fewer statistically significant increasing and decreasing trends due to its high variability, temperature showed only increasing trends in all time scales. The increasing trends were concentrated in late spring (May, +0.14&amp;#186;C per year), summer (June and August, +0.10&amp;#186;C), and early autumn (September, +0.13&amp;#186;C). For unchanged forest and cropland areas, we found no statistically significant ET trends. However, Sen&amp;#8217;s slope indicated increasing ET in April, May, June, and September for forest areas and in May and June for cropland. Our results indicate that during the study period, the temperature changes may have lengthened the growing season, which affected the ET patterns of forest and cropland areas. The results also provide important insights into the regional water balance, specially for critical periods where the ET rates increase while precipitation decrease (May, June. and July). Moreover, our study also complements the findings of other studies over the Baltic states.&lt;/p&gt;

Temporal changes in littoral meiofauna from the Hunter River estuary

1986 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
pp. 729 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Hodda ◽  
WL Nicholas
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Changes ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Consistent Pattern ◽  
Total Density ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
The World ◽  
One Year

The fluctuations in the densities of meiofaunal nematodes and copepods from seven sites on the Hunter River estuary over one year are described. There were no consistant patterns of change in either the densities of any copepod genus or total number of copepods. There were large fluctuations in the total numbers of nematodes at the various sites throughout the year, but a consistent pattern applicable to all sites was lacking. A few species of nematode, mostly epistrate feeders, each showed consistent changes in density at all sites over the year, but most epistrate feeders did not. The density of most species changed during the year, but these changes could not be consistently related to the seasons, and it is suggested that non-seasonal environmental changes are of greater significance. These findings contrast with those made on estuaries in other parts of the world, probably as the result of the presence of mangroves and the mild climate. The densities of a few species of nematode did not change throughout the year, and the total density of nematodes and copepods was strongly influenced by the height above low tide mark, with greatest numbers close to the low tide mark.

scholarly journals Radio Properties of the Nuclei in Elliptical, SO and Spiral Galaxies

1978 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 221-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.D. Ekers
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Spiral Galaxies ◽  
Elliptical Galaxies ◽  
Private Communication ◽  
One Year

When Heeschen (1968) found that the nuclear sources in the two elliptical galaxies NGC 4278 and NGC 1052 contained flat spectrum unresolved sources he conjectured that these might be weaker versions of the compact optically thick and strongly variable sources found in the quasar nuclei. This conjecture appears to be correct since these are both now known to have diameters <0.1 pc (Cohen et al. 1971) and to be variable on time scales of order one year. This variability has recently been confirmed by observations with the VLA (Heeschen, private communication).

Longitudinal Studies of Disfluencies in Two-Year-Old Children

1982 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehud Yairi
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Longitudinal Studies ◽  
Speech Development ◽  
Large Individual ◽  
Speech Sample ◽  
Peak Number ◽  
Testing Period ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
One Year ◽  
Short Episode

Spontaneous speech samples of 500 words were recorded three times at 4-month intervals from 33 normally speaking children. A fourth speech sample was recorded from the 13 youngest children in the group after an additional 4-month interval (one year after the beginning of the study). There were indications in the data that the peak number of speech disfluencies occurred at the later part of age 2' or at the beginning of age 3. Results also showed that there was a continuous reduction in disfluencies for the group as a whole. However, the 13 younger 2-year-olds and the 20 older 2-year-olds exhibited dissimilar developmental trends of disfluency. Large individual differences were observed during the period of the study. Many children showed large fluctuations in the number of disfluencies from one testing period to the next. A short episode of stuttering was observed in one subject. Overall, it appeared that the year between age 2 and 3 is an unstable period in speech development as far as disfluency is concerned.

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