scholarly journals Influence of the Coupling South Atlantic Convergence Zone-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the Projected Precipitation Changes over the Central Andes

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 77
Author(s):  
Juan C. Sulca ◽  
Rosmeri P. da Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
South Atlantic Convergence Zone ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
Peruvian Amazon ◽  
Nonlinear Characteristics ◽  
Group A ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Cmip5 Gcms

There are no studies related to the influence of the coupling between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern variability on future changes in the austral summer (December-February, DJF) precipitation over the central Andes. Therefore, we evaluated the historical simulations (1980–2005) and projections (2070–2099) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario of 25 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, we also consider the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) projections nested in three CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, and HadGEM2-ES) under RCP 8.5. We separate the CMIP5 GCMs according to their abilities to simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ for the historical period. We found that only three out of 25 CMIP5 GCMs (hereafter group A) simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ during the historical period. Although most CMIP5 GCM project DJF precipitation decreases over the central Andes, group A project precipitation increases related to the projected increase in deep convection over the central Peruvian Amazon. On the regional scale, only RegGFDL (nested in a group A CMIP5 GCM) projects a statistically significant increase in DJF precipitation (~5–15%) over the northern central Andes and the central Peruvian Amazon. Conversely, all RegCM4 simulations project a decrease in DJF precipitation (~−10%) over the southern central Andes.

scholarly journals Isotopic Composition of Precipitation in a Southeastern Region of Brazil during the Action of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 418
Author(s):  
Cleber Santos ◽  
Rayonil Carneiro ◽  
Camilla Borges ◽  
Didier Gastmans ◽  
Laura Borma
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
South Atlantic Convergence Zone ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Hysplit Model

The use of stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen is a tool widely used to trace water paths along the hydrological cycle, providing support for understanding climatic conditions in different spatial scales. One of the main synoptic scale events acting in southeastern Brazil is the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which causes a large amount of precipitation from southern Amazonia to southeastern Brazil during the southern summer. In order to determine the isotopic composition of precipitation during the action of SACZ in São Francisco Xavier in southeastern Brazil, information from the Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies Center of the National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC) was used regarding SACZ performance days, the retrograde trajectories of the HYSPLIT model, and images from the GOES-16 satellite, in addition to the non-parametric statistical tests by Spearman and Kruskal–Wallis. A high frequency of air mass trajectories from the Amazon to southeastern Brazil was observed when the SACZ was operating. During the SACZ events, the average isotopic composition of precipitation was more depleted, with a δ18O of −9.9‰ (±2.1‰), a δ2H of −69.3‰ (±17.9‰), and d-excess of 10.1‰ (±4.0‰). When disregarding the SACZ performance, the annual isotopic composition can present an enrichment of 1.0‰ for δ18O and 8.8‰ for the δ2H. The long-term monitoring of trends in the isotopic composition of precipitation during the SACZ events can assist in indicating the evapotranspiration contribution of the Amazon rainforest to the water supply of southeastern Brazil.

scholarly journals Dynamics-based regression models for the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 5527-5553
Author(s):  
David Marcolino Nielsen ◽  
André Luiz Belém ◽  
Edilson Marton ◽  
Marcio Cataldi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
South Atlantic Convergence Zone ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The South

scholarly journals Timing and extent of late pleistocene glaciation in the arid Central Andes of Argentina and Chile (22°-41°S)

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 697 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Zech ◽  
C. Terrizzano ◽  
E. García-Morabito ◽  
H. Veit ◽  
R. Zech
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
The North ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
Exposure Ages

The arid Central Andes are a key site to study changes in intensity and movement of the three main atmospheric circulation systems over South America: the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM), the Westerlies and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this semi-arid to arid region glaciers are particularly sensitive to precipitation changes and thus the timing of past glaciation is strongly linked to changes in moisture supply. Surface exposure ages from study sites between 41° and 22°S suggest that glaciers advanced: i) prior to the global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM) at ~40 ka in the mid (26°- 30°S) and southern Central Andes (35°-41°S), ii) in phase with the gLGM in the northern and southern Central Andes and iii) during the late glacial in the northern Central Andes. Deglaciation started synchronous with the global rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and increasing temperature starting at ~18 ka. The pre-gLGM glacial advances likely document enhanced precipitation related to the Southern Westerlies, which shifted further to the North at that time than previosuly assumed. During the gLGM glacial advances were favored by decreased temperatures in combination with increased humidity due to a southward shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and SASM. During the late-glacial a substantial increase in moisture can be explained by enhanced upper tropospheric easterlies as response to an intensified SASM and sustained La Niña-like conditions over the eastern equatorial Pacific that lead to glacial advances in the northern Central Andes and the lake level highstand Tauca (18-14 ka) on the Altiplano. In the southernmost Central Andes at 39º-41°S, further north at 31°S and in the northernmost Central Andes at 22°S glacial remnants even point to precipitation driven glaciations older than ~115 ka and 260 ka.

scholarly journals Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparison

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
Miguel Tasambay-Salazar ◽  
María José OrtizBeviá ◽  
Antonio RuizdeElvira ◽  
Francisco José Alvarez-García
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The World

Abstract. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main source of the predictability skill in many regions of the world for seasonal and interannual timescales. Longer lead predictability experiments of Niño3.4 Index using simple statistical linear models have shown an important skill loss at longer lead times when the targeted season is summer or autumn. We develop different versions of the model substituting some its variables with others that contain tropical or extratropical information, produce a number of hindcasts with these models using two different predictions schemes and cross validate them. We have identified different sets of tropical or extratropical predictors, which can provide useful values of potential skill. We try to find out the sources of the predictability by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST) and heat content (HC) anomalous fields produced by the successful predictors for the 1980–2012 period. We observe that where tropical predictors are used the prediction reproduces only the equatorial characteristics of the warming (cooling). However, where extratropical predictors are included, the predictions are able to simulate the absorbed warming in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).

scholarly journals The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3457-3476 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. Taschetto ◽  
I. Wainer
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract. The Community Climate Model (CCM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is used to investigate the effect of the South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual to decadal variability of South American precipitation. Two ensembles composed of multidecadal simulations forced with monthly SST data from the Hadley Centre for the period 1949 to 2001 are analysed. A statistical treatment based on signal-to-noise ratio and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) is applied to the ensembles in order to reduce the internal variability among the integrations. The ensemble treatment shows a spatial and temporal dependence of reproducibility. High degree of reproducibility is found in the tropics while the extratropics is apparently less reproducible. Austral autumn (MAM) and spring (SON) precipitation appears to be more reproducible over the South America-South Atlantic region than the summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) rainfall. While the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region is dominated by external variance, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) over South America is predominantly determined by internal variance, which makes it a difficult phenomenon to predict. Alternatively, the SACZ over western South Atlantic appears to be more sensitive to the subtropical SST anomalies than over the continent. An attempt is made to separate the atmospheric response forced by the South Atlantic SST anomalies from that associated with the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that both the South Atlantic and Pacific SSTs modulate the intensity and position of the SACZ during DJF. Particularly, the subtropical South Atlantic SSTs are more important than ENSO in determining the position of the SACZ over the southeast Brazilian coast during DJF. On the other hand, the ENSO signal seems to influence the intensity of the SACZ not only in DJF but especially its oceanic branch during MAM. Both local and remote influences, however, are confounded by the large internal variance in the region. During MAM and JJA, the South Atlantic SST anomalies affect the magnitude and the meridional displacement of the ITCZ. In JJA, the ENSO has relatively little influence on the interannual variability of the simulated rainfall. During SON, however, the ENSO seems to counteract the effect of the subtropical South Atlantic SST variations on convection over South America.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Valentin ◽  
Terri Hogue ◽  
Lauren Hay
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Hydrologic Regime ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Rcp 8.5

A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949–2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949–2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period (1949–2009).

scholarly journals La Niña weather impacts dietary patterns and dietary diversity among children in the Peruvian Amazon

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ramya Ambikapathi ◽  
Margaret N Kosek ◽  
Gwenyth O Lee ◽  
Maribel Paredes Olortegui ◽  
Benjamin Zaitchik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dietary Patterns ◽  
Dietary Diversity ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Birth Cohort Study ◽  
Peruvian Amazon ◽  
Food Groups ◽  
Social Strategies ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective: In 2011–2012, severe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions (La Niña) led to massive flooding and temporarily displacement in the Peruvian Amazon. Our aims were to examine the impact of this ENSO exposure on child diets, in particular: (1) frequency of food consumption patterns, (2) the amount of food consumed (g/d), (3) dietary diversity (DD), (4) consumption of donated foods, among children aged 9–36 months living in the outskirts of City of Iquitos in the Amazonian Peru. Design: This was a longitudinal study that used quantitative 24-h recall dietary data collection from children aged 9–36 months from 2010 to 2014 as part of the MAL-ED birth cohort study. Setting: Iquitos, Loreto, Peru. Participants: Two hundred and fifty-two mother–child dyads. Results: The frequency of grains, rice, dairy and sugar in meals reduced by 5–7 %, while the frequency of plantain in meals increased by 24 % after adjusting for covariates. ENSO exposure reduced girl’s intake of plantains and sugar. Despite seasonal fluctuations in the availability of fruits, vegetables and fish, DD remained constant across seasons and as children aged. However, DD was significantly reduced under moderate La Niña conditions by 0·32 (P < 0·05) food groups. Adaptive social strategies such as consumption of donated foods were significantly higher among households with girls. Conclusions: This is the first empirical study to show differential effect of the ENSO on the dietary patterns of children, highlighting differences by gender. Public health nutrition programmes should be climate- and gender-sensitive in their efforts to safeguard the diets of vulnerable populations.

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