scholarly journals Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Valentin ◽  
Terri Hogue ◽  
Lauren Hay
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Hydrologic Regime ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Rcp 8.5

A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949–2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949–2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period (1949–2009).

scholarly journals Response of glaciers in northwestern North America to future climate change: an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 283-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Wendell V. Tangborn ◽  
Craig S. Lingle
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balances ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
South Central

AbstractThe response of glaciers to changing climate is explored with an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach, in which global simulations are downscaled with an Arctic MM5 regional model which provides temperature and precipitation inputs to a glacier mass-balance model. The mass balances of Hubbard and Bering Glaciers, south-central Alaska, USA, are simulated for October 1994–September 2004. The comparisons of the mass-balance simulations using dynamically-downscaled vs observed temperature and precipitation data are in reasonably good agreement, when calibration is used to minimize systematic biases in the MM5 downscalings. The responses of the Hubbard (a large tidewater glacier) and Bering (a large surge-type glacier) mass balances to the future climate scenario CCSM3 A1B, a ‘middle-of-the-road’ future climate in which fossil and non-fossil fuels are assumed to be used in balance, are also investigated for the period October 2010–September 2018. Hubbard and Bering Glaciers are projected to have increased accumulation, particularly on the upper glaciers, and greater ablation, particularly on the lower glaciers. The annual net balance for the entire Bering Glacier is projected to be significantly more negative, on average (–2.0ma–1w.e., compared to –1.3ma–1w.e. during the hindcast), and for the entire Hubbard Glacier somewhat less positive (0.3ma–1w.e. compared to 0.4 ma–1w.e. during the hindcast). The Hubbard Glacier mass balances include an estimated iceberg calving flux of 6.5 km3 a–1, which is assumed to remain constant.

scholarly journals Modelled glacier equilibrium line altitudes during the mid-Holocene in the southern mid-latitudes

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 603-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Bravo ◽  
M. Rojas ◽  
B. M. Anderson ◽  
A. N. Mackintosh ◽  
E. Sagredo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Autumn And Winter

Abstract. Glacier behaviour during the mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 year BP) in the Southern Hemisphere provides observational data to constrain our understanding of the origin and propagation of palaeo-climatic signals. We examine the climatic forcing of glacier expansion in the MH by evaluating modelled glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and climate conditions during the MH compared with pre-industrial time (PI, year 1750) in the mid latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, specifically in Patagonia and the South Island of New Zealand. Climate conditions for the MH are obtained from PMIP2 models simulations, which in turn force a simple glacier mass balance model to simulate changes in equilibrium-line altitude during this period. Climate conditions during the MH show significantly (p ≤ 0.05) colder temperatures in summer, autumn and winter, and significantly (p ≤ 0.05) warmer temperatures in spring. These changes are a consequence of insolation differences between the two periods. Precipitation does not show significant changes, but exhibits a temporal pattern with less precipitation from August to September and more precipitation from October to April during the MH. In response to these climatic changes, glaciers in both analysed regions have an ELA that is 15–33 m lower than PI during the MH. The main causes of this difference are the colder temperature during the MH, reinforcing previous results that mid-latitude glaciers are more sensitive to temperature change compared to precipitation changes. Differences in temperature have a dual effect on mass balance. First, during summer and early autumn less energy is available for melting. Second in late autumn and winter, lower temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as snow rather than rain, resulting in more accumulation and higher surface albedo. For these reasons, we postulate that the modelled ELA changes, although small, may help to explain larger glacier extents observed in the mid Holocene in both South America and New Zealand.

scholarly journals Modelling Snowmelt Runoff from Tropical Andean Glaciers under Climate Change Scenarios in the Santa River Sub-Basin (Peru)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3535
Author(s):  
Elmer Calizaya ◽  
Abel Mejía ◽  
Elgar Barboza ◽  
Fredy Calizaya ◽  
Fernando Corroto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Andean Glaciers ◽  
Elevation Model

Effects of climate change have led to a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature across several areas of the world. This has resulted in a sharp decline of glaciers and an increase in surface runoff in watersheds due to snowmelt. This situation requires a better understanding to improve the management of water resources in settled areas downstream of glaciers. In this study, the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) was applied in combination with snow-covered area information (SCA), precipitation, and temperature climatic data to model snowmelt runoff in the Santa River sub-basin (Peru). The procedure consisted of calibrating and validating the SRM model for 2005–2009 using the SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), observed temperature, precipitation and SAC data. Then, the SRM was applied to project future runoff in the sub-basin under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. SRM patterns show consistent results; runoff decreases in the summer months and increases the rest of the year. The runoff projection under climate change scenarios shows a substantial increase from January to May, reporting the highest increases in March and April, and the lowest records from June to August. The SRM demonstrated consistent projections for the simulation of historical flows in tropical Andean glaciers.

scholarly journals Assessment of rice yield gap under a changing climate in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subhankar Debnath ◽  
Ashok Mishra ◽  
D. R. Mailapalli ◽  
N. S. Raghuwanshi ◽  
V. Sridhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Yield Gap ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract Climate change evokes future food security concerns and needs for sustainable intensification of agriculture. The explicit knowledge about crop yield gap at country level may help in identifying management strategies for sustainable agricultural production to meet future food demand. In this study, we assessed the rice yield gap under projected climate change scenario in India at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution by using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. The simulated spatial yield results show that mean actual yield under rainfed conditions (Ya) will reduce from 2.13 t/ha in historical period 1981–2005 to 1.67 t/ha during the 2030s (2016–2040) and 2040s (2026–2050), respectively, under the RCP 8.5 scenario. On the other hand, mean rainfed yield gap shows no change (≈1.49 t/ha) in the future. Temporal analysis of yield indicates that Ya is expected to decrease in the considerably large portion of the study area (30–60%) under expected future climate conditions. As a result, yield gap is expected to either stagnate or increase in 50.6 and 48.7% of the study area during the two future periods, respectively. The research outcome indicates the need for identifying plausible best management strategies to reduce the yield gap under expected future climate conditions for sustainable rice production in India.

Local Advection of Momentum, Heat, and Moisture during the Melt of Patchy Snow Covers

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (7) ◽  
pp. 1705-1715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glen E. Liston
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Conservation Equation ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Heat And Moisture

Abstract A numerical atmospheric boundary layer model, based on higher-order turbulence closure assumptions, is developed and used to simulate the local advection of momentum, heat, and moisture during the melt of patchy snow covers over a 10-km horizontal domain. The coupled model includes solution of the mass continuity equation, the horizontal and vertical momentum equations, an E−ε turbulence model, an energy equation, and a water vapor conservation equation. Atmospheric buoyancy is accounted for, and a land surface energy balance model is implemented at the lower boundary. Model integrations indicate that advective processes occurring at local scales produce nonlinear horizontal variations in surface fluxes. Under conditions of the numerical experiments, the energy available to melt snow-covered regions has been found to increase by as much as 30% as the area of exposed vegetation increases upwind of the snow cover. The melt increase is found to vary in a largely linear fashion with decreasing snow-covered area for snow-covered areas greater than 25% and in a strongly nonlinear fashion below that value. Decreasing the ratio of patch size to total area, or increasing the patchiness, of the snow cover also leads to nonlinear increases in the energy available to melt the snow. In the limit of a snow cover composed of small patches, melt energy is found to increase linearly as the fractional snow-covered area decreases. In addition, for the purpose of computing grid-average surface fluxes during snowmelt in regional atmospheric models, the results of this study indicate that separate energy balance computations can be performed over the snow-covered and vegetation-covered regions, and the resulting fluxes can be weighted in proportion to the fractional snow cover to allocate the total energy flux partitioning within each surface grid cell.

scholarly journals Modelled glacier equilibrium line altitudes during the mid-Holocene in the southern mid-latitudes

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1575-1586 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Bravo ◽  
M. Rojas ◽  
B. M. Anderson ◽  
A. N. Mackintosh ◽  
E. Sagredo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract. Glacier behaviour during the mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 years BP) in the Southern Hemisphere provides observational data to constrain our understanding of the origin and propagation of palaeoclimate signals. In this study we examine the climatic forcing of glacier response in the MH by evaluating modelled glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) and climatic conditions during the MH compared with pre-industrial time (PI, year 1750). We focus on the middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, specifically Patagonia and the South Island of New Zealand. Climate conditions for the MH were obtained from PMIP2 model simulations, which in turn were used to force a simple glacier mass balance model to simulate changes in ELA. In Patagonia, the models simulate colder conditions during the MH in austral summer (−0.2 °C), autumn (−0.5 °C), and winter (−0.4), and warmer temperatures (0.2 °C) during spring. In the Southern Alps the models show colder MH conditions in autumn (−0.7 °C) and winter (−0.4 °C), warmer conditions in spring (0.3 °C), and no significant change in summer temperature. Precipitation does not show significant changes but exhibits a seasonal shift, with less precipitation from April to September and more precipitation from October to April during the MH in both regions. The mass balance model simulates a climatic ELA that is 15–33 m lower during the MH compared with PI conditions. We suggest that the main causes of this difference are driven mainly by colder temperatures associated with the MH simulation. Differences in temperature have a dual effect on glacier mass balance: (i) less energy is available for ablation during summer and early autumn and (ii) lower temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as snow rather than rain in late autumn and winter, resulting in more accumulation and higher surface albedo. For these reasons, we postulate that the modelled ELA changes, although small, may help to explain larger glacier extents observed by 6000 years BP in South America and New Zealand.

scholarly journals Wind Power Potential in Near Future Climate Scenarios: The Case for Burundi (East Africa)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Manirakiza Célestin ◽  
Lamboni Batablinlé
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future

This paper assessed projected changes of wind power potential in near future climate scenarios over four sites from two contrasting regions of Burundi. Observed and MERRA-2 data sets were considered for the historical period 1981-2010, and a computed Multi-model ensemble for future projections data of eight Regional Climate Models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 over the period 2011-2040 was used. Regional Climate Models were downscaled at local climate using Empirical Statistical Downscaling method. Mann-Kendall’s test was used for trend analysis over the historical period, while future changes in wind power density (WPD) quartiles were computed for each climate scenario by 2040. The findings revealed an increase in wind power potential all over the area studied with higher values during summer time. Indeed, over the period 2011-2040, the lowest WPD change is projected at Northern highlands (NHL) under RCP 4.5 with 27.03 W.m-2, while the highest WPD change of 46.34 W.m-2 is forecasted under RCP 8.5 at Southern Imbo plain (SIP). The month of August and September are expected to have higher WPD change in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively while January is projected to have the lowest WPD. Places near by the Lake Tanganyika are the most favorable areas for wind power generation.

scholarly journals Snowpack dynamics in the Lebanese mountains from quasi-dynamically downscaled ERA5 reanalysis updated by assimilating remotely sensed fractional snow-covered area

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 4455-4471
Author(s):  
Esteban Alonso-González ◽  
Ethan Gutmann ◽  
Kristoffer Aalstad ◽  
Abbas Fayad ◽  
Marine Bouchet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Mountain Ranges ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. The snowpack over the Mediterranean mountains constitutes a key water resource for the downstream populations. However, its dynamics have not been studied in detail yet in many areas, mostly because of the scarcity of snowpack observations. In this work, we present a characterization of the snowpack over the two mountain ranges of Lebanon. To obtain the necessary snowpack information, we have developed a 1 km regional-scale snow reanalysis (ICAR_assim) covering the period 2010–2017. ICAR_assim was developed by means of an ensemble-based data assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) through an energy and mass snow balance model, the Flexible Snow Model (FSM2), using the particle batch smoother (PBS). The meteorological forcing data were obtained by a regional atmospheric simulation from the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) nested inside a coarser regional simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The boundary and initial conditions of WRF were provided by the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis. ICAR_assim showed very good agreement with MODIS gap-filled snow products, with a spatial correlation of R=0.98 in the snow probability (P(snow)) and a temporal correlation of R=0.88 on the day of peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, ICAR_assim has shown a correlation with the seasonal mean SWE of R=0.75 compared with in situ observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs). The results highlight the high temporal variability in the snowpack in the Lebanese mountain ranges, with the differences between Mount Lebanon and the Anti-Lebanon Mountains that cannot only be explained by hypsography as the Anti-Lebanon Mountains are in the rain shadow of Mount Lebanon. The maximum fresh water stored in the snowpack is in the middle elevations, approximately between 2200 and 2500 m a.s.l. (above sea level). Thus, the resilience to further warming is low for the snow water resources of Lebanon due to the proximity of the snowpack to the zero isotherm.

scholarly journals Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Qi ◽  
Guangxin Zhang ◽  
Yi Jun Xu ◽  
Zhikun Xia ◽  
Ming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
River Basin ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Global water resources are affected by climate change as never before. However, it is still unclear how water resources in high latitudes respond to climate change. In this study, the water resource data for 2021–2050 in the Naoli River Basin, a high-latitude basin in China, are calculated by using the SWAT-Modflow Model and future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show a decreasing trend. When compared to the present, future streamflow is predicted to decrease by 2.73 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and by 1.51 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 8.16 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and by 0.56 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, groundwater recharge is expected to decrease by −1.79 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and −0.75 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and by −0.62 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and −0.12 × 108m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. The worst impact of climate change on water resources in the basin could be frequent occurrences of extremely wet and dry conditions. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the largest annual streamflow is predicted to be almost 14 times that of the smallest one, while it is 18 times for the groundwater recharge. Meanwhile, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, inter-annual fluctuations are expected to be more severe. The difference is 17 times between the largest annual streamflow and the lowest annual one. Moreover, the value is 19 times between the largest and lowest groundwater recharge. This indicates a significant increase in conflict between water use and supply.

scholarly journals The impact of different elevation steps on simulation of snow covered area and the resulting runoff variance

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 69-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bellinger ◽  
S. Achleitner ◽  
J. Schöber ◽  
F. Schöberl ◽  
R. Kirnbauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Pareto Optimal ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Hydrological Response Unit ◽  
Moderate Resolution ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study analyses the impact of vertical model discretisation on modelling snow covered area and the consequential effects on runoff formation of the semi-distributed water balance model HQsim. Therefore, the parameters relevant for snow modelling are varied within the frame of a uniformly distributed Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Since the model is based on the hydrological response unit (HRU) approach, the effect of building the HRUs with different elevation steps (250 m and 500 m) is tested for two alpine catchments. In total 5000 parameter combinations were generated for simulation. The results of modelled snow covered area were compared with thirty MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) snow cover maps for the melting periods in 2003–2011. Based on a contingency table the comparisons were evaluated by different skill measures. Finally, the pareto optimal parameter settings of each skill measure were detected. Evaluation of runoff variability within the MCS and their pareto optimal runs show reduced variances of model output resulting from an improved simulation of the snow covered area.

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