scholarly journals Impact on Renewable Design Requirements of Net-Zero Carbon Buildings under Potential Future Climate Scenarios

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Dongsu Kim ◽  
Heejin Cho ◽  
Pedro J. Mago ◽  
Jongho Yoon ◽  
Hyomun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Generation System ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
The U.S

This paper presents an analysis to foresee renewable design requirement changes of net- zero carbon buildings (NZCBs) under different scenarios of potential future climate scenarios in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. A climate change model is developed in this study using the Gaussian random distribution method with monthly temperature changes over the whole Northeast and Midwest regions, which are predicted based on a high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (i.e., the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5). To reflect the adoption of NZCBs potential in future, this study also considers two representative future climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s of climate change years in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. An office prototype building model integrates with an on-site photovoltaics (PV) power generation system to evaluate NZCB performance under the climate change scenarios with an assumption of a net-metering electricity purchase agreement. Appropriate capacities of the on-site PV system needed to reach NZCB balances are determined based on the building energy consumption impacted by the simulated climate scenarios. Results from this study demonstrated the emission by electricity consumption increases as moving toward the future scenarios of up to about 25 tons of CO2-eq (i.e., about 14% of the total CO2-eq produced by the electricity energy source) and the PV installation capacity to offset the emission account for the electricity consumption increases significantly up to about 40 kWp (i.e., up to more than 10% of total PV installation capacities) as the different climate scenarios are applied. It is concluded that the cooling energy consumption of office building models would significantly impact GHG emission as future climate scenarios are considered. Consequently, designers of NZCBs should consider high performance cooling energy systems in their designs to reduce the renewable energy generation system capacity to achieve net-zero carbon emission goals.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Temperature Effects on Electricity and Gas Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Mexico and Projections under Future Climate Conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 305
Author(s):  
W.J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Tim Nees ◽  
Francisco Estrada
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Gas Consumption

Fixed effects panel models are used to estimate how the electricity and gas consumption of various sectors and residents relate to temperature in Mexico, while controlling for the effects of income, manufacturing output per capita, electricity and gas prices and household size. We find non-linear relationships between energy consumption and temperature, which are heterogeneous per state. Electricity consumption increases with temperature, and this effect is stronger in warm states. Liquified petroleum gas consumption declines with temperature, and this effect is slightly stronger in cold states. Extrapolations of electricity and gas consumption under a high warming scenario reveal that electricity consumption by the end of the century for Mexico increases by 12%, while gas consumption declines with 10%, resulting in substantial net economic costs of 43 billion pesos per year. The increase in net energy consumption implies greater efforts to comply with the mitigation commitments of Mexico and requires a much faster energy transition and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. The results suggest that challenges posed by climate change also provide important opportunities for advancing social sustainability goals and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This study is part of Mexico’s Sixth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

scholarly journals Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1831) ◽  
pp. 20160442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma F. Camp ◽  
David J. Smith ◽  
Chris Evenhuis ◽  
Ian Enochs ◽  
Derek Manzello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Seagrass Beds ◽  
Metabolic Rates ◽  
Acropora Palmata ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Environmental Variance ◽  
Outer Reef ◽  
Porites Astreoides ◽  
Physiological Tolerance

Corals are acclimatized to populate dynamic habitats that neighbour coral reefs. Habitats such as seagrass beds exhibit broad diel changes in temperature and pH that routinely expose corals to conditions predicted for reefs over the next 50–100 years. However, whether such acclimatization effectively enhances physiological tolerance to, and hence provides refuge against, future climate scenarios remains unknown. Also, whether corals living in low-variance habitats can tolerate present-day high-variance conditions remains untested. We experimentally examined how pH and temperature predicted for the year 2100 affects the growth and physiology of two dominant Caribbean corals ( Acropora palmata and Porites astreoides ) native to habitats with intrinsically low (outer-reef terrace, LV) and/or high (neighbouring seagrass, HV) environmental variance. Under present-day temperature and pH, growth and metabolic rates (calcification, respiration and photosynthesis) were unchanged for HV versus LV populations. Superimposing future climate scenarios onto the HV and LV conditions did not result in any enhanced tolerance to colonies native to HV. Calcification rates were always lower for elevated temperature and/or reduced pH. Together, these results suggest that seagrass habitats may not serve as refugia against climate change if the magnitude of future temperature and pH changes is equivalent to neighbouring reef habitats.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change on Streamflow, Sediment, and Nutrient Load at Watershed Scale

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Prem B. Parajuli ◽  
Avay Risal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

This study evaluated changes in climatic variable impacts on hydrology and water quality in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), Mississippi. Site-specific future time-series precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation data were generated using a stochastic weather generator LARS-WG model. For the generation of climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5 of Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) and EC-EARTH, for three (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) future climate periods. Analysis of future climate data based on six ground weather stations located within BSRW showed that the minimum temperature ranged from 11.9 °C to 15.9 °C and the maximum temperature ranged from 23.2 °C to 28.3 °C. Similarly, the average daily rainfall ranged from 3.6 mm to 4.3 mm. Analysis of changes in monthly average maximum/minimum temperature showed that January had the maximum increment and July/August had a minimum increment in monthly average temperature. Similarly, maximum increase in monthly average rainfall was observed during May and maximum decrease was observed during September. The average monthly streamflow, sediment, TN, and TP loads under different climate scenarios varied significantly. The change in average TN and TP loads due to climate change were observed to be very high compared to the change in streamflow and sediment load. The monthly average nutrient load under two different RCP scenarios varied greatly from as low as 63% to as high as 184%, compared to the current monthly nutrient load. The change in hydrology and water quality was mainly attributed to changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. This study can be useful in the development and implementation of climate change smart management of agricultural watersheds.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals Governing Net Zero Carbon Removals to Avoid Entrenching Inequities

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Healey ◽  
Robert Scholes ◽  
Penehuro Lefale ◽  
Pius Yanda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Burden Sharing ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global North ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
Interdisciplinary Effort ◽  
Global Agreement

Climate change embeds inequities and risks reinforcing these in policies for climate change remediation. In particular, with policies designed to achieve “net zero” carbon dioxide, offsets may be considered inequitable if seen to avoid or delay gross emission reductions; offsets to emissions through technologically mature methods of carbon dioxide removals (CDR) require natural resources at scales threatening food security; knowledge of the potential of immature CDR is largely a global north monopoly; and CDR in particular environments is ill-understood and its implications for development unexamined. The use of CDR to contribute to robust progress toward Paris climate goals requires global agreement on simultaneously reducing emissions and enhancing removals, equity in burden sharing, and an interdisciplinary effort led by individual jurisdictions and focused on the co-development of technologies and governance to create CDR portfolios matched to local needs.

A qualitative assessment of the impact of smart homes and environmentally beneficial technologies on the UK 2050 net-zero carbon emission target

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghasson Shabha ◽  
Francesca Barber ◽  
Paul Laycock
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Smart Home ◽  
Smart Homes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Home Technology ◽  
Smart Home Technology

PurposeThere are 29 million homes in the UK, accounting for 14% of the UK's energy consumption. This is given that UK has one of the highest water and energy demands in Europe which needs to be addressed according to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC). Smart homes technology holds a current perception that it is principally used by “tech-savvy” users with larger budgets. However, smart home technology can be used to control water, heat and energy in the entire house. This paper investigates how smart home technology could be effectively utilised to aid the UK government in meeting climate change targets and to mitigate the environmental impact of a home in use towards reducing carbon emissions.Design/methodology/approachBoth primary and secondary data were sought to gain insight into the research problem. An epistemological approach to this research is to use interpretivism to analyse data gathered via a semi-structured survey. Two groups of participants were approached: (1) professionals who are deemed knowledgeable about smart home development and implementation and (2) users of smart home technology. A variety of open-ended questions were formulated, allowing participants to elaborate by exploring issues and providing detailed qualitative responses based on their experience in this area which were interpreted quantitatively for clearer analysis.FindingsWith fossil fuel reserves depleting, there is an urgency for renewable, low carbon energy sources to reduce the 5 tonnes annual carbon emissions from a UK household. This requires a multi-faceted and a multimethod approach, relying on the involvement of both the general public and the government in order to be effective. By advancing energy grids to make them more efficient and reliable, concomitant necessitates a drastic change in the way of life and philosophy of homeowners when contemplating a reduction of carbon emissions. If both parties are able to do so, the UK is more likely to reach its 2050 net-zero carbon goal. The presence of a smart meter within the household is equally pivotal. It has a positive effect of reducing the amount of carbon emissions and hence more need to be installed.Research limitations/implicationsFurther research is needed using a larger study sample to achieve more accurate and acceptable generalisations about any future course of action. Further investigation on the specifics of smart technology within the UK household is also needed to reduce the energy consumption in order to meet net-zero carbon 2050 targets due to failures of legislation.Practical implicationsFor smart homes manufacturers and suppliers, more emphasis should be placed to enhance compatibility and interoperability of appliances and devices using different platform and creating more user's friendly manuals supported by step-by-step visual to support homeowners in the light of the wealth of knowledge base generated over the past few years. For homeowners, more emphasis should be placed on creating online knowledge management platform easily accessible which provide virtual support and technical advice to home owners to deal with any operational and technical issues or IT glitches. Developing technical design online platform for built environment professionals on incorporating smart sensors and environmentally beneficial technology during early design and construction stages towards achieving low to zero carbon homes.Originality/valueThis paper bridges a significant gap in the body of knowledge in term of its scope, theoretical validity and practical applicability, highlighting the impact of using smart home technology on the environment. It provides an insight into how the UK government could utilise smart home technology in order to reduce its carbon emission by identifying the potential link between using smart home technology and environmental sustainability in tackling and mitigating climate change. The findings can be applied to other building types and has the potential to employ aspects of smart home technology in order to manage energy and water usage including but not limited to healthcare, commercial and industrial buildings.

scholarly journals Resilient optimal design of multi-family buildings in future climate scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 06006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Bilardo ◽  
Maria Ferrara ◽  
Enrico Fabrizio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Optimal Design ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Global Cost ◽  
The Cost

In Europe, the second recast of EPBD promotes long-term strategies to accelerate the path to nZEBs, fostering the cost-optimized building design already suggested in the EPBD first recast. Since the nZEB design is a complex optimization problem that is subjected to uncertainty in its boundary conditions (climate, technologies, market, ...), it is necessary to guarantee the resilience of the NZEB optimal design to possible variations of future scenarios, especially as regards the climate change. This work applies the new EdeSSOpt methodology (Energy Demand and Supply Simultaneous Optimization) developed by the Authors aiming at investigating the variation of the cost-optimized multi-family building design in different Italian future climate scenarios, therefore considering parameters related to the building envelope, energy systems and renewable energy sources. The method is implemented into the TRNSYS® (energy model), GenOpt (optimizer) and WeatherShift® (future climate scenario generator) tools. The resulting cost-optimal solutions in future scenarios are related to a lower global cost and a decreased total primary energy consumption. Beyond the future trends of such performance indexes, the fact that most of technical solutions associated with the optimal solutions have not changed with the studied climate scenarios, indicates a certain resilience of the optimal design variables facing climate change.

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