scholarly journals Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Kathleen Carvalho ◽  
João Paulo Vicente ◽  
Mihajlo Jakovljevic ◽  
João Paulo Ramos Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Medical Studies ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Icu Patients ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries’ size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people.

scholarly journals Forecasted Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions and Projected Mortality attributable to Covid-19 in Portugal, UK, Germany, Italy and France – 4 weeks Ahead

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Carvalho ◽  
João Paulo Vicente ◽  
Mihajlo Jakovljevic ◽  
João Paulo Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Data Input ◽  
Medical Studies ◽  
Great Contribution ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Icu Patients ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows the analysis of future diseases propagations. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were proposed two methodologies to predict 28 days ahead the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, United Kingdom, and Germany, and a case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries size, and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized, at least with one dose of vaccine. As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology and targets other possibilities of use for the proposed method. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1 to 28 days ahead forecast lower than 30 cases, 0,6 deaths and 2,5 ICU patients by million people.

scholarly journals Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
K. Savvidou ◽  
K. Lagouvardos ◽  
S. Michaelides ◽  
V. Kotroni ◽  
P. Constantinides
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Verification Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Observing Systems

Abstract. The purpose of this study is the verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verification period spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parameters studied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts are compared to the observations recorded at three locations on the island, where Automatic Weather Observing Systems are operated by the Meteorological Service of Cyprus, namely, those of Larnaka and Paphos Airports and at Athalassa. The statistical analysis includes calculation of the mean error, the mean absolute error and the standard deviation. Based on the construction of a contingency table, the probability of detection of a precipitation event and the false alarm rate are calculated. Finally, an example of BOLAM forecasts for a case study of a low pressure affecting Cyprus during winter is presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Inter-Floor Noise Monitoring System for Multi-Dwelling Houses Using Smartphones

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5065
Author(s):  
Suhyun Kang ◽  
Seungho Kim ◽  
Dongeun Lee ◽  
Sangyong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Noise Source ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Sound Level ◽  
Apartment Buildings ◽  
The Mean

The noise between the floors in apartment buildings is becoming a social problem, and the number of disputes related to it are increasing every year. However, laypersons will find it difficult to use the sound level meters because they are expensive, delicate, bulky, etc. Therefore, this study proposes a system to monitor the noise between the floors, that will measure the sound and estimate the location of the noise using the sensors and applications in smartphones. To evaluate how this system can be used effectively within an apartment building, a case study has been performed to verify its validity. The result shows that the mean absolute error (MAE) between the actual noise generating position and the estimated noise source location was measured at 2.8 m, with a minimum error of 1.2 m and a maximum error of 4.3 m. This means that smartphones, in the future, can be used as low-cost monitoring and evaluation devices to measure the noise between the floors in apartment buildings.

Explanation Plus Prediction—The Logical Focus of Project Management Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 875697282199994
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Hair ◽  
Marko Sarstedt
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Management Research ◽  
The Mean

Most project management research focuses almost exclusively on explanatory analyses. Evaluation of the explanatory power of statistical models is generally based on F-type statistics and the R 2 metric, followed by an assessment of the model parameters (e.g., beta coefficients) in terms of their significance, size, and direction. However, these measures are not indicative of a model’s predictive power, which is central for deriving managerial recommendations. We recommend that project management researchers routinely use additional metrics, such as the mean absolute error or the root mean square error, to accurately quantify their statistical models’ predictive power.

scholarly journals The impact of symptoms on quality of life before and after diagnosis of coeliac disease: the results from a Polish population survey and comparison with the results from the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilia Majsiak ◽  
Magdalena Choina ◽  
Dominik Golicki ◽  
Alastair M. Gray ◽  
Bożena Cukrowska
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Coeliac Disease ◽  
Gluten Free Diet ◽  
Gluten Free ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Background Coeliac disease (CD) is characterised by diverse clinical symptoms, which may cause diagnostic problems and reduce the patients’ quality of life. A study conducted in the United Kingdom (UK) revealed that the mean time between the onset of coeliac symptoms and being diagnosed was above 13 years. This study aimed to analyse the diagnostic process of CD in Poland and evaluate the quality of life of patients before and after CD diagnosis. In addition, results were compared to the results of the original study conducted in the UK. Methods The study included 2500 members of the Polish Coeliac Society. The patients were asked to complete a questionnaire containing questions on socio-demographic factors, clinical aspects and quality of life, using the EQ-5D questionnaire. Questionnaires received from 796 respondents were included in the final analysis. Results The most common symptoms reported by respondents were bloating (75%), abdominal pain (72%), chronic fatigue (63%) and anaemia (58%). Anaemia was the most persistent symptom, with mean duration prior to CD diagnosis of 9.2 years, whereas diarrhoea was observed for the shortest period (4.7 years). The mean duration of any symptom before CD diagnosis was 7.3 years, compared to 13.2 years in the UK. CD diagnosis and the introduction of a gluten-free diet substantially improved the quality of life in each of the five EQ-5D-5L health dimensions: pain and discomfort, anxiety and depression, usual activities, self-care and mobility (p < 0.001), the EQ-Index by 0.149 (SD 0.23) and the EQ-VAS by 30.4 (SD 28.3) points. Conclusions Duration of symptoms prior to the diagnosis of CD in Poland, although shorter than in the UK, was long with an average of 7.3 years from first CD symptoms. Faster CD diagnosis after the onset of symptoms in Polish respondents may be related to a higher percentage of children in the Polish sample. Introduction of a gluten-free diet improves coeliac patients’ quality of life. These results suggest that doctors should be made more aware of CD and its symptoms across all age groups.

Visualizing the Variance of a Random Variable

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 71-85
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Cacciafesta
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Dominance ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Taylor Formula ◽  
Order Stochastic Dominance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Second Order Stochastic Dominance ◽  
Options Theory

We provide a simple way to visualize the variance and the mean absolute error of a random variable with finite mean. Some application to options theory and to second order stochastic dominance is given: we show, among other, that the "call-put parity" may be seen as a Taylor formula.

Survey of the Use of Diffusion-Weighted Imaging for Cholesteatoma in the United Kingdom

ORL ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Sunil Dutt Sharma ◽  
Ahmad Hariri ◽  
Ravi Kumar Lingam ◽  
Arvind Singh
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
British Society ◽  
Petrous Apex ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Diffusion Weighted ◽  
Clinical Scenarios ◽  
Head And Neck Imaging ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Uk

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Non-echoplanar diffusion-weighted MRI (DWMRI) has a role in the surgical planning for cholesteatoma. <b><i>Aims/Objectives:</i></b> The aim of the study was to assess the use of DWMRI in the management of cholesteatoma across the UK, and measure clinicians’ confidence in the use of DWMRI. <b><i>Materials and Methods:</i></b> Telephone survey in 139 Otolaryngology Departments in the United Kingdom between March 2017 and July 2017, and asking radiology delegates at the British Society of Head and Neck Imaging 2017 meeting. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The response rate was 101 out of 139 Trusts (73%). Of those respondents who did have DWMRI available, 68/88 respondents (77%) use it for cholesteatoma. The mean confidence (±standard deviation) of the respondents with DWMRI in identifying cholesteatoma presence was 7.3 ± 2.1, in identifying volume of cholesteatoma was 6.8 ± 1.8, and in identifying subsites of cholesteatoma was 4.6 ± 2.1. <b><i>Conclusions and Significance:</i></b> DWMRI has a well-defined role in the follow-up of patients after cholesteatoma surgery, and those primary cases of cholesteatoma where the diagnosis is in question. The use of DWMRI for cholesteatoma is variable across the UK, but there are certain clinical scenarios where there is not enough awareness regarding the benefits of imaging (such as petrous apex cases of cholesteatoma).

scholarly journals Direct Calculation of Thermodynamic Wet-Bulb Temperature as a Function of Pressure and Elevation

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 1757-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayed-Hossein Sadeghi ◽  
Troy R. Peters ◽  
Douglas R. Cobos ◽  
Henry W. Loescher ◽  
Colin S. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Direct Calculation ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Order Polynomial ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Very High

Abstract A simple analytical method was developed for directly calculating the thermodynamic wet-bulb temperature from air temperature and the vapor pressure (or relative humidity) at elevations up to 4500 m above MSL was developed. This methodology was based on the fact that the wet-bulb temperature can be closely approximated by a second-order polynomial in both the positive and negative ranges in ambient air temperature. The method in this study builds upon this understanding and provides results for the negative range of air temperatures (−17° to 0°C), so that the maximum observed error in this area is equal to or smaller than −0.17°C. For temperatures ≥0°C, wet-bulb temperature accuracy was ±0.65°C, and larger errors corresponded to very high temperatures (Ta ≥ 39°C) and/or very high or low relative humidities (5% &lt; RH &lt; 10% or RH &gt; 98%). The mean absolute error and the root-mean-square error were 0.15° and 0.2°C, respectively.

scholarly journals Renters Rising! Extending the analysis of housing activism in Europe to the UK

Araucaria ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 147-171
Author(s):  
Andrew Mathers
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Direct Action ◽  
Social Democracy ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Social Backgrounds

The material effects of austerity in the United Kingdom (UK) have generated a resurgence of activist initiatives in the field of housing central to which is ACORN that has developed into a federated organisation contesting housing practices and policies at both local and national levels. ACORN is used to expand the examination of housing activism in Europe beyond the cases in Spain and Germany to the UK (Ordonez et al, 2015). This article also utilises the qualitative methodology of a comparative case study and the framework of ideological and social backgrounds, political repertoires and political logics to present and analyse ACORN. While ACORN displays striking similarities to other cases, it also represents a different trajectory in housing activism that combines direct action with an engagement with party politics as social democracy seeks to return to its roots.

scholarly journals Practical Considerations for Implementing Species Distribution Essential Biodiversity Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Boyd ◽  
Nick Isaac ◽  
Robert Cooke ◽  
Francesca Mancini ◽  
Tom August ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Biodiversity Indicators ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Occupancy Detection ◽  
Essential Biodiversity Variables ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Species Occupancy ◽  
Very High ◽  
The Ideal

Species Distribution Essential Biodiversity Variables (SD EBVs; Pereira et al. 2013, Kissling et al. 2017, Jetz et al. 2019) are defined as measurements or estimates of species’ occupancy along the axes of space, time and taxonomy. In the “ideal” case, additional stipulations have been proposed: occupancy should be characterized contiguously along each axis at grain sizes relevant to policy and process (i.e., fine scale); and the SD EBV should be global in extent, or at least span the entirety of the focal taxa’s geographical range (Jetz et al. 2019). These stipulations set the bar very high and, unsurprisingly, most operational SD EBVs fall short of these ideal criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the major challenges associated with developing the idealized SD EBV. I will demonstrate these challenges using an operational SD EBV spanning ~6000 species in the United Kingdom (UK) over the period 1970 to 2019 as a case study (Outhwaite et al. 2019). In short, this data product comprises annual estimates of occupancy for each species in all sampled 1 km cells across the UK; these are derived from opportunistically-collected species occurrence data using occupancy-detection models (Kéry et al. 2010). Having discussed which of the “ideal” criteria the case study satisfies, I will then touch on what are, in my view, two underappreciated challenges when constructing SD EBVs: dealing with sampling biases in the underlying data and the difficulty in evaluating the extent to which they bias the final product. These challenges should be addressed as a matter of urgency, as SD EBVs are increasingly applied in important settings such as underpinning national and international biodiversity indicators (see e.g., https://geobon.org/ebvs/indicators/).

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