scholarly journals A 422-Year Reconstruction of the Kaiken River Streamflow, Xinjiang, Northwest China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1100
Author(s):  
Heli Zhang ◽  
Huaming Shang ◽  
Feng Chen ◽  
Youping Chen ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
...  

Our understanding of Central Asian historical streamflow variability is still limited because of short instrumental hydrologcial records. Based on tree-ring cores collected from three sampling sites in Kaiken River basin near Tien Shan, a regional tree-ring width chronology were developed. The correlation analysis showed that the runoff of Kaiken River from previous August to current June was significantly correlated with the regional chronology, and the high correlation coefficient was 0.661 (P < 0.01). Based on the regional chronology, the August-June runoff of Kaiken River has been reconstructed over the past 422 year, and it accounted for 43.7% of actual runoff variance during the common period 1983–2013. The reconstruction model is reliable, and the trend of observed and reconstructed data is relatively consistent. The results of multi-taper spectral analysis for the runoff reconstruction indicated some remarkable cycles for the past 422 years; the 11.5-year cycles correspond to the solar cycle and is found widely in runoff reconstructions in Central Asia. This may imply a solar influence on the hydroclimate variations of Tien Shan. The runoff reconstruction of Kaiken River compares well with runoff reconstructions the Urumqi River and Manas River, and implies that there is a common driving factor for the runoff in central Tien Shan, China. The analysis of linkages between climate variation and the runoff reconstruction of Kaiken River shows that there is a relationship between extremes in runoff variation and abnormal atmospheric circulations. Our 422-year steamflow reconstruction provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century hydrological events in central Tien Shan, is useful for aids sustainable water management and addresses regional climate change challenges.

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 288-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. K. Davi ◽  
G. C. Jacoby ◽  
A. E. Curtis ◽  
N. Baatarbileg

Abstract Central Asian drought has had drastic impacts on vast regions over recent years. Longer records and insight into temporal drought patterns could aid greatly in anticipating extreme events and agrarian planning. Mongolia is representative of the central Asian region, and tree-ring resources are used herein to extend the climate record and test for solar influence and/or Pacific Ocean teleconnections. Absolutely dated tree-ring-width chronologies from five sampling sites in west-central Mongolia were used in precipitation models and an individual model was made using the longest of the five tree-ring records (1340–2002). The tree-ring sites are in or near the Selenge River basin, the largest river in Mongolia and a major input into Lake Baikal in Siberia. Regression models resulted in a reconstruction of streamflow that extends from 1637 to 1997 and explains 49% of the flow variation. Spectral analysis indicated significant variation in the frequencies common to Pacific Ocean variations [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and ENSO] and also some quasi-solar and lunar-nodal periodicities similar to previous Mongolian hydrometeorological reconstructions in eastern Mongolia based on tree rings.


2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Solomina ◽  
G. Wiles ◽  
T. Shiraiwa ◽  
R. D'Arrigo

Abstract. Tree ring, ice core and glacial geologic histories for the past several centuries offer an opportunity to characterize climate variability and to identify the key climate parameters forcing glacier expansion in Kamchatka over the past 400 years. A newly developed larch ring-width chronology (AD 1632–2004) is presented that is sensitive to past summer temperature variability. Individual low growth years in the larch record are associated with several known and proposed volcanic events from the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of ring width minima and those of Melt Feature Index of Ushkovsky ice core helps confirm a 1–3 year dating accuracy~for this ice core series over the late 18th to 20th centuries. Decadal variations of low summer temperatures (tree-ring record) and high annual precipitation (ice core record) are broadly consistent with intervals of positive mass balances measured and estimated at several glaciers in 20th century, and with moraine building. According to the tree-ring data the 1860s–1880s were the longest coldest interval in the last 350 years. The latest part of this period (1880s) coincided with the positive anomaly in accumulation. This coincidence led to a positive mass balance, which is most likely responsible for glacier advances and moraine deposition of the end of 19th-early 20th centuries. As well as in some other high latitude regions (Spitsbergen, Polar Urals, Franz Jozef Land etc.) in Kamchatka these advances marked the last millennium glacial maximum. In full agreement with subsequent summer warming trend, inferred both from instrumental and tree ring data, glacier advances since 1880s have been less extensive. The late 18th century glacier expansion coincides with the inferred summer temperature decrease recorded by the ring width chronology. However, both the advance and the summer temperature decrease were less prominent that in the end of 19th century. Comparisons of the glacier history in Kamchatka with records from Alaska and the Canadian Rockies suggests broadly consistent intervals of glacier expansion and inferred summer cooling during solar irradiance minima.


2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinbao Li ◽  
Xiaohua Gou ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Fahu Chen

1990 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Kashiwaya ◽  
Takashi Okimura

AbstractTorrential rainfalls in the Rokko Mountains have often triggered severe landslides and debris flows, but few such phenomena have occurred in the area just to the north of the mountains during the same rainfall events. The periodicity of 25–30 years in excess rainfall data (i.e., the annual summation of heavy rainfall of more than 100 mm/day during the past 100 years) around the mountains correlates with the increased frequency of landslides and debris flows. Analyses of tree-ring widths that span the past 50–240 years in samples taken from various areas in the mountains and the area just to the north indicate that most sequences have a dominant periodicity of about 25–30 years, the ring series in the mountain areas having a more conspicuous periodicity than those from the area just to the north. These results lead to the conclusion that excess rainfall may provide a first approximation of erosional force in areas affected by slope movement, and that tree-ring width may be used as a proxy for erosional force.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Yangao Jiang ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
Junhui Zhang ◽  
Shijie Han ◽  
Cassius E.O. Coombs ◽  
...  

AbstractIn this study, the mean temperature of June to July was reconstructed for the period of 1880 to 2014 by using the Larix gmelinii tree-ring width data for the Mangui region in the northern Daxing’an Mountains, China. The reconstruction accounts for 43.6% of the variance in the temperature observed from AD 1959–2014. During the last 134 years, there were 17 warm years and 17 cold years, which accounted for 12.7% of the total reconstruction years, respectively. Cold episodes occurred throughout 1887–1898 (average value is 14.2°C), while warm episodes occurred during 1994–2014 (15.9°C). Based on this regional study, the warmer events coincided with dry periods and the colder events were consistent with wet conditions. The spatial correlation analyses between the reconstructed series and gridded temperature data revealed that the regional climatic variations were well captured by this study and the reconstruction represented a regional temperature signal for the northern Daxing’an Mountains. In addition, Multi-taper method spectral analysis revealed the existence of significant periodicities in our reconstruction. Significant spectral peaks were found at 29.7, 10.9, 2.5, and 2.2 years. The significant spatial correlations between our temperature reconstruction and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Solar activity suggested that the temperature in the Daxing’an Mountains area indicated both local-regional climate signals and global-scale climate changes.


IAWA Journal ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 361-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amalava Bhattacharyya ◽  
Santosh K. Shah

A large number of tree species, especially of conifers growing in the Himalaya and a few broad-leaved taxa in the peninsular region, have been dendrochronologically analyzed in India. This paper is a review providing information as regards the present status and future prospects of tree-ring research in India. Many trees are recorded to have datable tree rings but only some of them have been used for climate reconstruction and other aspects, e.g., glacial fluctuation or palaeo-seismic dating. In future not only ring width which is widely used so far, but also other tree-ring parameters need to be analyzed for a better understanding of the regional climate and its linkage with other climatic phenomena in a global perspective.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Cherubini ◽  
Giovanna Battipaglia ◽  
John L. Innes

&lt;p&gt;Forest health, although not yet unanimously defined, has been monitored in the past forty years assessing tree vitality, trying to estimate tree photosynthesis rates and productivity. Used in monitoring forest decline in Central Europe since the 1980s, crown foliage transparency has been commonly believed to be the best indicator of tree condition in relation to air pollution, although annual variations appear more closely related to water stress. Although crown transparency is not a good indicator of tree photosynthesis rates, defoliation is still one of the most used indicators of tree vitality. Tree rings have been often used as indicators of past productivity. However, long-term tree-growth trends are difficult to interpret because of sampling bias, and ring-width patterns do not provide any information about tree physiological processes.&amp;#160;In the past two decades, tree-ring carbon and oxygen stable isotopes have been used &amp;#160;to reconstruct the impact of past climatic events, such as drought. They have proven to be useful tools for retrospectively understanding physiological processes and tree response to &amp;#160;stress factors.&amp;#160;Tree-ring stable isotopes integrate crown transpiration rates and photosynthesis rates and may enhance our understanding of tree vitality. They are promising indicators of tree vitality. We call for the use of tree-ring stable isotopes in future monitoring programmes.&lt;/p&gt;


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasrin Salehnia ◽  
Jinho Ahn

&lt;p&gt;The Tree Ring Width (TRW) records are one of the main paleoclimate proxies that estimate the past climate variability. TRW measurements pave the way for scientists to produce sequences from various kinds of trees and reconstruct climate variables over the past years. Understanding the relation between TRW and climate variables in the past would help us analyze climate change events. This study has applied multi-gridded datasets to find the relations and model TRW data with different climate variables in South Korea's northeast. We utilized TRW data related to our case study that is available on the NOAA website; furthermore, we have checked three primary gauges, namely Agmerra (The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications), CRU TS4.03 (Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.03), and APHRODITE's (Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) for climate variables. In the first step, we have checked the relation between the gauges' precipitation data and observation TRW. According to the obtained efficiency criteria, CRU performed the best consequences. In the second step, we have tried to model observation TRW as a dependent variable and four climate variables of CRU (precipitation, minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and diurnal temperature range) as independent ones over 1969-1998. We have created a linear regression model and determined the accurate coefficients for each climate variable. Besides, we have examined the observation TRW and modeled TRW data. The results showed that with &lt;em&gt;R&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/sup&gt;&amp;#8776; 0.40 and a &lt;em&gt;p-value&lt;/em&gt; of 0.0323, the regression line was linearly significant at the 95 percent significance level. It represents that our model is acceptable. We will extend our model with Artificial Intelligence methods and try to apply other TRW stations in the future step. In this way, we may produce highly accurate models and fill the gaps for future researches.&lt;/p&gt;


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