scholarly journals An Empirical Algorithm for COVID-19 Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecast in Spain: A Kinematic Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Enrique Orihuel ◽  
Juan Sapena ◽  
Josep Navarro-Ortiz
Keyword(s):  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Relative Errors ◽  
Cubic Function ◽  
Official Data

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of forecasting techniques can play an advisory role in policymakers’ early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this article, we present a simple approach to even day and 14 day forecasts of the number of COVID-19 cases. The 14 day forecast can be taken as a proxy nowcast of infections that occur on the calculation day in question, if we assume the hypothesis that about two weeks elapse from the day a person is infected until the health authorities register it as a confirmed case. Our approach relies on polynomial regression between the dependent variable y (cumulative number of cases) and the independent variable x (time) and is modeled as a third-degree polynomial in x. The analogy between the pandemic spread and the kinematics of linear motion with variable acceleration is useful in assessing the rate and acceleration of spread. Our frame is applied to official data of the cumulative number of cases in Spain from 15 June until 17 October 2020. The epidemic curve of the cumulative number of cases adequately fits the cubic function for periods of up to two months with coefficients of determination R-squared greater than 0.97. The results obtained when testing the algorithm developed with the pandemic figures in Spain lead to short-term forecasts with relative errors of less than ±1.1% in the seven day predictions and less than ±4.0% in the 14 day predictions.

scholarly journals Decline in Marriage Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 237802312098032
Author(s):  
Brandon G. Wagner ◽  
Kate H. Choi ◽  
Philip N. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Know How ◽  
The Social ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Social Upheaval ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Do So

In the social upheaval arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, we do not yet know how union formation, particularly marriage, has been affected. Using administration records—marriage certificates and applications—gathered from settings representing a variety of COVID-19 experiences in the United States, the authors compare counts of recorded marriages in 2020 against those from the same period in 2019. There is a dramatic decrease in year-to-date cumulative marriages in 2020 compared with 2019 in each case. Similar patterns are observed for the Seattle metropolitan area when analyzing the cumulative number of marriage applications, a leading indicator of marriages in the near future. Year-to-date declines in marriage are unlikely to be due solely to closure of government agencies that administer marriage certification or reporting delays. Together, these findings suggest that marriage has declined during the COVID-19 outbreak and may continue to do so, at least in the short term.

scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0247272
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Marković
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Reaction Model ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Short And Long Term

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemic has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an important role not only for the baseline infection rate, but also for short and long-term reactions to the outbreak. We propose to investigate the question of how societies as a whole, and governments in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalization of the SIR model, the reactive SIR (short-term and long-term reaction) model. We posit that containment measures are equivalent to a feedback between the status of the outbreak and the reproduction factor. Short-term reaction to an outbreak corresponds in this framework to the reaction of governments and individuals to daily cases and fatalities. The reaction to the cumulative number of cases or deaths, and not to daily numbers, is captured in contrast by long-term reaction. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short and long-term control parameters. We find increased contributions of long-term control for countries and regions in which the outbreak was suppressed substantially together with a strong correlation between the strength of societal and governmental policies and the time needed to contain COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, for numerous countries and regions we identified a predictive relation between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak of daily fatality counts, which allows to gauge the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks that should be expected after the peak. These results suggest that the proposed model is applicable not only for understanding the outbreak dynamics, but also for predicting future cases and fatalities once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty. Finally, we provide a web app (https://itp.uni-frankfurt.de/covid-19/) with tools for visualising the phase space representation of real-world COVID-19 data and for exporting the preprocessed data for further analysis.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PARTISIPASI MANAJER TERHADAP EFEKTIVITAS SISTEM INFORMASI AKUNTANSI

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-70
Author(s):  
Ikromi Abd Ghani HSB ◽  
Dovi Septiari
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Accounting Information System ◽  
Independent Variable

The development of the business environment in globalization era has been triggered an increasingly tight business competition. Every companies who have an established its own strategies to manage a variety of information, human resources, allocation of funds and others. Accounting information system is a great resources that very valuable to an organization for the smoothness management of the company’s financial and decision making wheter it is to long term and short term, however there are several aspect that can be a factors the effectiveness of the accounting information system, that is manager’s participation. The research is aimed to proves that manager’s participation and manager’s involvement had a positive influence on the effectiveness of accounting information system (AIS) at manufacturing company, especially in the industrial zone Batamindo Mukakuning Batam City. The research method is using regression analysis to proves are the manager’s participation (independent variable) and manager’s involvement (independent variable) gives effect to the effectiveness of information system (dependent variable) or not. The result of this research is shows that variable of manager’s participation and manager’s involvement has a significant influence to the effectiveness of information system. The method is using purposive sampling is done by taking a sampling of the population according to certain criteria.

scholarly journals FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHIKURS RUPIAH TERHADAP YEN TAHUN 1970 - 2002: ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 187
Author(s):  
Nurul Yuniataqwa Karunia ◽  
Malik Cahyadin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monetary Approach ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Analyze Time Series Data ◽  
Analyze Time Series ◽  
Variable Exchange

This research aims to find out factors influencing the exchange rate of rupiah toward yen. The approach used to analyze time series data in this study is monetary approach with ECM as the chosen regression model. The year of observation was begun in 1970-2002. Based on regression which done, the result showed that there is the significant correlation between independent variable (MI,Yreal, NP1) with dependent variable (exchange rate of Rupiah fYen). The correlation happens either in long or short term.

scholarly journals Prediction of peak and termination of novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 2050152
Author(s):  
Sepehr Rafieenasab ◽  
Amir-Pouyan Zahiri ◽  
Ehsan Roohi
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Immunization Rates ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

The growth and development of COVID-19 transmission have significantly attracted the attention of many societies, particularly Iran, that have been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In this study, the known “Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR)” and some other mathematical approaches were used to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran’s official data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data. The results offer important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as the realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time and other characteristics. Besides, the effectiveness of infection and immunization rates to the number of infected people and epidemic end time are reported. Finally, different suggestions for decreasing victims are offered.

scholarly journals Effect of Chemical Aggressive Media on the Flexural Properties of Cured-In-Place Pipes Supported by Microstructure Observation and Acoustic Emission

Materials ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3051
Author(s):  
Jakub Hodul ◽  
Jana Majerová ◽  
Rostislav Drochytka ◽  
Richard Dvořák ◽  
Libor Topolář ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acoustic Emission ◽  
Vinyl Ester ◽  
Optical Microscope ◽  
Flexural Properties ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Microstructure Observation ◽  
Inorganic Acids ◽  
Sample Structure

The cured-in-place pipe (CIPP) method is currently the most frequently used approach for the renovation of piping without digging; this technology is suitable for pipes made from all types of material. The authors of this paper examined how chemical substances and increased temperature change samples of CIPP with vinyl-ester resin taken from a simulated installation. Changes were observed at several levels: visually via a digital optical microscope, through changes of short-term bending properties and by observation of the activity of the sample structure by means of acoustic emission (AE). Interdependencies among the observed parameters were examined, specifically, the cumulative number of hits (cnt)/deflection and flexural properties/mechanic wave velocity. The test results prove that after three weeks of immersion in a simulated aggressive environment that mirrors what may happen to CIPP in real conditions, short-term mechanical properties change. This is also proven by the results of the AE measurements. For clarity, the results include images from a digital optical microscope. In addition, this paper proves that CIPP samples have good resistance to the action of organic and inorganic acids and to increased temperatures. After three weeks of exposure to a temperature of 100 °C the CIPP flexural properties of the samples had even improved.

scholarly journals The Impact of Liquidity on the Capital Structure: Evidence from Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maziar Ghasemi ◽  
Nazrul Hisyam Ab Razak
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Ratio ◽  
Debt Level ◽  
Asset Liquidity ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A Company ◽  
The Capital Structure

<p class="Content">For many years, liquidity of a company’s asset and its effect on the optimal debt level has been a controversial issue among scholars in finance studies. Prior studies have demonstrated that in some countries, asset liquidity increased debt level while in other countries liquid companies were less leveraged and more regularly financed by their own capital. This study investigates the effect of liquidity on the capital structure among the 300 listed companies in the Main market of Bursa Malaysia from 2005 to 2013 fiscal years. Pooled OLS is applied to investigate the impact of liquidity ratios on different Debt ratios. Liquidity of a company, which is the independent variable of this study, is measured by two common ratios which are: quick ratio and current ratio. Additionally, the Debt/Equity and Debt/Asset ratios represent the capital structures based on the short-term, long-term and total debt. The results show that all the measures of liquidity have significant impacts on all the proxies of leverage. According to the results, Quick ratio has a positive effect on leverage; although, Current ratio is negatively related to leverage. Moreover, short-term debt is more influenced by liquidity compared to long-term debt.</p>

COVID-19 aids US-China economic ties in the short term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Institutional Architecture ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance Pragmatism will be to the forefront in the early implementation of the Phase One trade agreement between the two countries that came into effect in mid-February. At the same time, the hard line is more prominent in the Trump administration’s efforts to curtail China’s telecoms giants, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corporation. Impacts The mistrust between the United States and China during the pandemic will discourage cooperation in other spheres. China’s drive to reshape the institutional architecture of global governance and to be self-sufficient in technology will continue. Despite disliking multilateralism, Trump will engage with multilateral bodies to curb China’s efforts to reshape global governance. Any US-EU trade agreement could seek to limit China exploiting additional fraying of US-EU relations caused by the pandemic.

Rational Behavior in Politics: Evidence from a Three Person Game

1970 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H. Riker ◽  
William James Zavoina
Keyword(s):  
Political Theory ◽  
Rational Behavior ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Party Loyalty ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Person Game

A fundamental controversy in political theory from ancient times until the present concerns the rationality of political actors, what it is, if it exists at all, and whether or not humans display it in politics. Many political scientists are impatient with this controversy because it remains open after so much (apparently futile) discussion. But they ought not be. The problem of rationality is necessarily imbedded in even the simplest kinds of political research, where, if overlooked, it can occasion misinterpretation and even outright error.Suppose, for example, in an investigation of legislators one uses the notion of party loyalty as an independent variable to explain behavior. This notion seems simple and straightforward enough and not, therefore, likely to involve one in philosophical controversy. But in fact party loyalty can be interpreted in a variety of ways and the choice among them necessarily involves a choice on one side of the controversy over rationality. Loyalty can be thought of, for example, as a truly independent variable, as a product of political socialization, as an expression of affect, and hence as an essentially irrational motive. On the other hand, it may be thought of as itself dependent on bargains rationally satisfying the preferences of legislators. Such bargains may be either short term or long term so that a legislator's manifest party loyalty may result from a series of advantageous bargains with party leaders on particular bills or from an implied bargain with them on career advantage.

Changes in stroke incidence, outcome, and associated factors in Porto between 1998 and 2011

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Correia ◽  
Rui Magalhães ◽  
Rui Felgueiras ◽  
Cláudia Quintas ◽  
Laura Guimarães ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Model ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Stroke Incidence ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
Short Term Outcome ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Year 2000

Objective Year 2000 marked a turning point in stroke prevention and treatment in Portugal. In face of high incidence rates stroke awareness campaigns, close surveillance of vascular risk factors and implementation of hospital stroke units were advanced by the National Health Authorities. To understand the effect of such measures, we assessed changes in stroke incidence and short-term outcome using data from two community-based registers undertaken in Porto in 1998–2000 and 2009–2011. Methods We used standard diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for first-ever strokes. Short-term outcome was measured by the modified Rankin Scale; disabling stroke was defined whenever post-stroke mRS score>pre-stroke mRS and >1. Results Globally, 462 and 405 first-ever stroke cases were registered in 1998–2000 and 2009–2011, respectively. Stroke incidence decreased by 23%, from 261 to 203/100,000 after adjustment for the Portuguese population. Significant reduction was found in those aged <75 years (31%) and in women (32%). Incidence of disabling strokes was reduced by 29%. Fatal strokes decreased by 46%, while intracerebral hemorrhage decreased by 51%. Risk of disability from stroke decreased by 11% (RR = 0.89; 95%CI, 0.81–0.98) in 2009–2011, as found after adjusting for patient/stroke characteristics in a Poisson model. Moreover, when patients arrived hospital within 3 h from stroke onset, the risk of disabling stroke was 0.76 (95%CI, 0.67–0.87) in 2009–2011 vs. 1998–2000, compared to 1.03 (95%CI, 0.89–1.12) for late arrival. Conclusion Risk of stroke, mainly of hemorrhagic stroke, was substantially reduced over time. Timely action in acute phase was responsible for the decline in disability across periods.

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