scholarly journals Qom—A New Hydrologic Prediction Model Enhanced with Multi-Objective Optimization

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo R. Zavala ◽  
José García-Nieto ◽  
Antonio J. Nebro

The efficient calibration of hydrologic models allows experts to evaluate past events in river basins, as well as to describe new scenarios and predict possible future floodings. A difficulty in this context is the need to adjust a large number of parameters in the model to reduce prediction errors. In this work, we address this issue with two complementary contributions. First, we propose a new lumped rainfall-runoff hydrologic model—called Qom—which is featured by a limited set of continuous decision variables associated with soil moisture and direct runoff. Qom allows to separate and quantify the volume of losses and excesses of the rainwater falling in a hydrographic basin, while a Clark’s model is used to determine output hydrograms. Second, we apply a multi-objective optimization approach to find accurate calibrations of the model in a systematic and automatic way. The idea is to formulate the process as a bi-objective optimization problem where the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient and percent bias have to be minimized, and to combine the results found by a set of metaheuristics used to solve it. For validation purposes, we apply our proposal in six hydrographic scenarios, comprising river basins located in Spain, USA, Brazil and Argentina. The proposed approach is shown to minimize prediction errors of simulated streamflows with regards to those observed in these real-world basins.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Israel Mayo-Molina ◽  
Juliana Y. Leung

Abstract The Steam Alternating Solvent (SAS) process has been proposed and studied in recent years as a new auspicious alternative to the conventional thermal (steam-based) bitumen recovery process. The SAS process incorporates steam and solvent (e.g. propane) cycles injected alternatively using the same configuration as the Steam-Assisted Gravity-Drainage (SAGD) process. The SAS process offers many advantages, including lower capital and operational cost, as well as a reduction in water usage and lower Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions. On the other hand, one of the main challenges of this relatively new process is the influence of uncertain reservoir heterogeneity distribution, such as shale barriers, on production behaviour. Many complex physical mechanisms, including heat transfer, fluid flows, and mass transfer, must be coupled. A proper design and selection of the operational parameters must consider several conflicting objectives. This work aims to develop a hybrid multi-objective optimization (MOO) framework for determining a set of Pareto-optimal SAS operational parameters under a variety of heterogeneity scenarios. First, a 2-D homogeneous reservoir model is constructed based on typical Cold lake reservoir properties in Alberta, Canada. The homogeneous model is used to establish a base scenario. Second, different shale barrier configurations with varying proportions, lengths, and locations are incorporated. Third, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the most impactful parameters or decision variables. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, several objective functions are formulated (e.g., minimizing energy and solvent usage). Fourth, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is applied to generate a set of proxy models to approximate the non-linear relationship between the decision variables and the objective functions and to reduce the overall computational time. Finally, three Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) are applied to search and compare the optimal sets of decision parameters. The study showed that the SAS process is sensitive to the shale barrier distribution, and that impact is strongly dependent on the location and length of a specific shale barrier. When a shale barrier is located near the injector well, pressure and temperature may build up in the near-well area, preventing additional steam and solvent be injected and, consequently, reducing the oil production. Operational constraints, such as bottom-hole pressure, steam trap criterion, and bottom-hole gas rate in the producer, are among various critical decision variables examined in this study. A key conclusion is that the optimal operating strategy should depend on the underlying heterogeneity. Although this notion has been alluded to in other previous steam- or solvent-based studies, this paper is the first to utilize a MOO framework for systematically determining a specific optimal strategy for each heterogeneity scenario. With the advancement of continuous downhole fibre-optic monitoring, the outcomes can potentially be integrated into other real-time reservoir characterization and optimization work-flows.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 478
Author(s):  
Hao Chen ◽  
Weikun Li ◽  
Weicheng Cui ◽  
Ping Yang ◽  
Linke Chen

Biomimetic robotic fish systems have attracted huge attention due to the advantages of flexibility and adaptability. They are typically complex systems that involve many disciplines. The design of robotic fish is a multi-objective multidisciplinary design optimization problem. However, the research on the design optimization of robotic fish is rare. In this paper, by combining an efficient multidisciplinary design optimization approach and a novel multi-objective optimization algorithm, a multi-objective multidisciplinary design optimization (MMDO) strategy named IDF-DMOEOA is proposed for the conceptual design of a three-joint robotic fish system. In the proposed IDF-DMOEOA strategy, the individual discipline feasible (IDF) approach is adopted. A novel multi-objective optimization algorithm, disruption-based multi-objective equilibrium optimization algorithm (DMOEOA), is utilized as the optimizer. The proposed MMDO strategy is first applied to the design optimization of the robotic fish system, and the robotic fish system is decomposed into four disciplines: hydrodynamics, propulsion, weight and equilibrium, and energy. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method is employed to predict the robotic fish’s hydrodynamics characteristics, and the backpropagation neural network is adopted as the surrogate model to reduce the CFD method’s computational expense. The optimization results indicate that the optimized robotic fish shows better performance than the initial design, proving the proposed IDF-DMOEOA strategy’s effectiveness.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document