scholarly journals Aging and loss decision making: increased risk aversion and decreased use of maximizing information, with correlated rationality and value maximization

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoanna A. Kurnianingsih ◽  
Sam K. Y. Sim ◽  
Michael W. L. Chee ◽  
O’Dhaniel A. Mullette-Gillman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Value Maximization ◽  
Increased Risk

The security of being grateful: Gratitude promotes risk aversion in decision-making

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufeng Zhang ◽  
Zhuo Job Chen ◽  
Shiguang Ni
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion

scholarly journals Age is just a number: Is frailty being ignored in vascular access planning for dialysis?

2021 ◽  
pp. 112972982198990
Author(s):  
Kulli Kuningas ◽  
Nicholas Inston
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Vascular Access ◽  
Clinical Condition ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Dialysis Access ◽  
Adverse Health Outcomes ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
First Choice

Current international guidelines advocate fistula creation as first choice for vascular access in haemodialysis patients, however, there have been suggestions that in certain groups of patients, in particular the elderly, a more tailored approach is needed. The prevalence of more senior individuals receiving renal replacement therapy has increased in recent years and therefore including patient age in decision making regarding choice of vascular access for dialysis has gained more relevance. However, it seems that age is being used as a surrogate for overall clinical condition and it can be proposed that frailty may be a better basis to considering when advising and counselling patients with regard to vascular access for dialysis. Frailty is a clinical condition in which the person is in a vulnerable state with reduced functional capacity and has a higher risk of adverse health outcomes when exposed to stress inducing events. Prevalence of frailty increases with age and has been associated with an increased risk of mortality, hospitalisation, disability and falls. Chronic kidney disease is associated with premature ageing and therefore patients with kidney disease are prone to be frailer irrespective of age and the risk increases further with declining kidney function. Limited data exists on the relationship between frailty and vascular access, but it appears that frailty may have an association with poorer outcomes from vascular access. However, further research is warranted. Due to complexity in decision making in dialysis access, frailty assessment could be a key element in providing patient-centred approach in planning and maintaining vascular access for dialysis.

Enhancing Regulatory Decision Making for Postmarket Drug Safety

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vishal Ahuja ◽  
Carlos A. Alvarez ◽  
John R. Birge ◽  
Chad Syverson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Operations Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pharmaceutical Products ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Veterans Health ◽  
Health Administration ◽  
Regulatory Decision ◽  
Increased Risk

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates the approval and safe public use of pharmaceutical products in the United States. The FDA uses postmarket surveillance systems to monitor drugs already on the market; a drug found to be associated with an increased risk of adverse events (ADEs) is subject to a recall or a warning. A flawed postmarket decision-making process can have unintended consequences for patients, create uncertainty among providers and affect their prescribing practices, and subject the FDA to unfavorable public scrutiny. The FDA’s current pharmacovigilance process suffers from several shortcomings (e.g., a high underreporting rate), often resulting in incorrect or untimely decisions. Thus, there is a need for robust, data-driven approaches to support and enhance regulatory decision making in the context of postmarket pharmacovigilance. We propose such an approach that has several appealing features—it employs large, reliable, and relevant longitudinal databases; it uses methods firmly established in literature; and it addresses selection bias and endogeneity concerns. Our approach can be used to both (i) independently validate existing safety concerns relating to a drug, such as those emanating from existing surveillance systems, and (ii) perform a holistic safety assessment by evaluating a drug’s association with other ADEs to which the users may be susceptible. We illustrate the utility of our approach by applying it retrospectively to a highly publicized FDA black box warning (BBW) for rosiglitazone, a diabetes drug. Using comprehensive data from the Veterans Health Administration on more than 320,000 diabetes patients over an eight-year period, we find that the drug was not associated with the two ADEs that led to the BBW, a conclusion that the FDA evidently reached, as it retracted the warning six years after issuing it. We demonstrate the generalizability of our approach by retroactively evaluating two additional warnings, those related to statins and atenolol, which we found to be valid. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

Revenue Sharing Contract of Green Supply Chain under Manufacturer Risk-Aversion

2014 ◽  
Vol 697 ◽  
pp. 482-487
Author(s):  
Shi Ying Jiang ◽  
Chun Yan Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Stackelberg Game ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Green Supply Chain ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Revenue Sharing Contract

Background on two stages green supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer, considering the degree of risk aversion and product greenness, consumer preferences and other factors, the centralized decision-making game model and manufacturer-leading Stackelberg game model are established.Then two game models are compared. The interaction of product greenness, wholesale price, product price,and risk aversion utility for manufacturers and retailers are also disscussed. Finally, the revenue sharing contract is applied to coordinate the green supply chain . The results show that:(1) In the centralized decision-making model, there is a critical value of the product green degree; (2)In manufacturer-leading Stackelberg game model, the higher the green degree of the product, the higher the manufacturer's wholesale price,and the wholesale price increases as risk aversion degree of manufacturers improves;(3)The revenue sharing contract can coordinate this type of green supply chain under manufacturers risk-averse.

scholarly journals A Computational Model of Non-optimal Suspiciousness in the Minnesota Trust Game

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Kazinka ◽  
Iris Vilares ◽  
Angus MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Inequity Aversion ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Social Decision ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Social Decision Making

This study modeled spite sensitivity (the worry that others are willing to incur a loss to hurt you), which is thought to undergird suspiciousness and persecutory ideation. Two samples performed a parametric, non-iterative trust game known as the Minnesota Trust Game (MTG). The MTG is designed to distinguish suspicious decision-making from otherwise rational mistrust by incentivizing the player to trust in certain situations. Individuals who do not trust even under these circumstances are particularly suspicious of their potential partner’s intentions. In Sample 1, 243 undergraduates who completed the MTG showed less trust as the amount of money they could lose increased. However, for choices where partners had a financial disincentive to betray the player, variation in the willingness to trust the partner was associated with suspicious beliefs. To further examine spite sensitivity, we modified the Fehr-Schmidt (1999) inequity aversion model, which compares unequal outcomes in social decision-making tasks, to include the possibility for spite sensitivity. In this case, an anticipated partner’s dislike of advantageous inequity (i.e., guilt) parameter could take on negative values, with negative guilt indicating spite. We hypothesized that the anticipated guilt parameter would be strongly related to suspicious beliefs. Our modification of the Fehr-Schmidt model improved estimation of MTG behavior. We isolated the estimation of partner’s spite-guilt, which was highly correlated with choices most associated with persecutory ideation. We replicated our findings in a second sample, where the estimated spite-guilt parameter correlated with self-reported suspiciousness. The “Suspiciousness” condition, unique to the MTG, can be modeled to isolate spite sensitivity, suggesting that spite sensitivity is separate from inequity aversion or risk aversion, and may provide a means to quantify persecution. The MTG offers promise for future studies to quantify persecutory beliefs in clinical populations.

scholarly journals Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 2357-2371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patric Kellermann ◽  
Christine Schönberger ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Railway Infrastructure ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

scholarly journals Sensitivity to gains during risky decision-making differentiates chronic cocaine users from stimulant-naïve controls

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Kluwe-Schiavon ◽  
A. Kexel ◽  
G. Manenti ◽  
D.M. Cole ◽  
M.R. Baumgartner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Neuropsychological Test ◽  
Risky Decision Making ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Cocaine Use ◽  
Risk Seeking ◽  
Chronic Cocaine ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cocaine Users ◽  
The Individual

AbstractBackgroundAlthough chronic cocaine use has been frequently associated with decision-making impairments that are supposed to contribute to the development and maintenance of cocaine addiction, it has remained unclear how risk-seeking behaviours observed in chronic cocaine users (CU) come about. Here we therefore test whether risky decision-making observed in CU is driven by alterations in individual sensitivity to the available information (gain, loss, and risk).MethodA sample of 96 participants (56 CU and 40 controls) performed the no-feedback (“cold”) version of the Columbia Card Task. Structured psychiatric interviews and a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery were additionally conducted. Current and recent substance use was objectively assessed by toxicological urine and hair analysis.ResultsCompared to controls, CU showed increased risk-seeking in unfavourable decision scenarios in which the risk was high and the returns were low, and a tendency for increased risk aversion in favourable decision scenarios. These differences arose from the fact that CU were less sensitive to gain, but similarly sensitive to loss and risk information in comparison to controls. Further analysis revealed that individual differences in sensitivity to loss and risk were related to cognitive performance and impulsivity.ConclusionThe reduced sensitivity to gain information in people with CU may contribute to their propensity for making risky decisions. While these alterations in the sensitivity to gain might be directly related to cocaine use per se, the individual psychopathological profile of CU might moderate their sensitivity to risk and loss impulsivity.

The Neurobiology of Aggression

2013 ◽  
pp. 1103-1111
Author(s):  
R. James ◽  
R. Blair
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Motor Behavior ◽  
Neural Systems ◽  
Emotional Modulation ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Norm Violations ◽  
Instrumental Aggression ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Selection Of

This chapter considers the neurobiology of aggression both the neural systems mediating this behavior as well as how these systems can become perturbed such that the aggression is maladaptive to the individual. A distinction will be drawn between planned, goal directed instrumental aggression and threat/ frustration based reactive aggression. Instrumental aggression implicates the neural systems involved in instrumental motor behavior generally as well as emotional learning and decision making systems that allow the selection of one action over another. Conditions decreasing the responsiveness of neural systems allowing good decision making (amygdala, striatum, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) are associated with an increased risk for maladaptive instrumental aggression. Reactive aggression implicates sub cortical systems involved in the basic response to threat as well as cortical systems involved in emotional modulation and the response to norm violations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document