scholarly journals Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations

10.3386/w5721 ◽  
1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Gali
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle

scholarly journals Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 249-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle

I estimate a decomposition of productivity and hours into technology and non-technology components. Two results stand out: (a) the estimated conditional correlations of hours and productivity are negative for technology shocks, positive for nontechnology shocks; (b) hours show a persistent decline in response to a positive technology shock. Most of the results hold for a variety of model specifications, and for the majority of G7 countries. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with a conventional real-business-cycle interpretation of business cycles, but is shown to be consistent with a simple model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices. (JEL E32, E24)

IMPERFECT TRANSMISSION OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE CONSEQUENCES

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 418-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamilton B. Fout ◽  
Neville R. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
American Economic Review ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Temporary Increase ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Initial Wealth ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Sustained Increase

We investigate the business cycle effects of imperfect transmission of technology shocks within a basic real business cycle (RBC) model along two dimensions. First, we assume that agents cannot distinguish a temporary increase in productivity growth from a sustained increase in the underlying growth rate of productivity and instead must conduct signal extraction exercises and update beliefs about the source of aggregated shocks. Second, we propose a technology adjustment cost resulting in the slow diffusion of technological innovations into the production process. Both of these impediments to the transmission of technology result in a large initial wealth effect, increasing investment and hours less, relative to the usual RBC model without these frictions. Furthermore, each of these features is capable of producing a decline in hours on impact of the technology shock matching the negative response in hours found in the data by such works as Gali [American Economic Review89(1), 249–271 (1999)].

scholarly journals Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of (S, s) Policies

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 1165-1188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aubhik Khan ◽  
Julia K Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Delivery Costs ◽  
Inventory Investment ◽  
Cyclical Variability ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Inventory Accumulation

We develop an equilibrium business cycle model where nonconvex delivery costs lead firms to follow (S, s) inventory policies. Calibrated to postwar US data, the model reproduces two-thirds of the cyclical variability of inventory investment. Moreover, it delivers strongly procyclical inventory investment, greater volatility in production than sales, and a countercyclical inventory-to-sales ratio. Our model challenges several prominent claims involving inventories, including the widely held belief that they amplify aggregate fluctuations. Despite the comovement between inventory investment and final sales, GDP volatility is essentially unaltered by inventory accumulation, because procyclical inventory investment diverts resources from final production, thereby dampening fluctuations in sales. (JEL E22, E32).

scholarly journals Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (4) ◽  
pp. 1375-1425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasco M. Carvalho ◽  
Basile Grassi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Large Firm ◽  
Firm Dynamics ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Firm Size Distribution ◽  
The Business Cycle

Do large firm dynamics drive the business cycle? We answer this question by developing a quantitative theory of aggregate fluctuations caused by firm-level disturbances alone. We show that a standard heterogeneous firm dynamics setup already contains in it a theory of the business cycle, without appealing to aggregate shocks. We offer an analytical characterization of the law of motion of the aggregate state in this class of models, the firm size distribution, and show that aggregate output and productivity dynamics display: (i ) persistence, (ii ) volatility, and (iii ) time-varying second moments. We explore the key role of moments of the firm size distribution, and, in particular, the role of large firm dynamics, in shaping aggregate fluctuations, theoretically, quantitatively, and in the data. (JEL D21, D22, D24, E32, L11)

scholarly journals Endogenous Liquidity and the Business Cycle

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (6) ◽  
pp. 1883-1927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saki Bigio
Keyword(s):  
Asymmetric Information ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Cost

I study an economy where asymmetric information about the quality of capital endogenously determines liquidity. Liquid funds are key to relaxing financial constraints on investment and employment. These funds are obtained by selling capital or using it as collateral. Liquidity is determined by balancing the costs of obtaining liquidity under asymmetric information against the benefits of relaxing financial constraints. Aggregate fluctuations follow increases in the dispersion of capital quality, which raise the cost of obtaining liquidity. An estimated version of the model can generate patterns for quantities and credit conditions similar to the Great Recession. (JEL D82, E22, E24, E32, E44, G01)

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